Irish Sports
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09 Jun 14
20:26
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
The second Major is nearly upon us, and its time to unlock the safe, cash in the Credit Union chips, pawn the kids, and sell the wife......get down to Paddy Powers and have the loot on Adam Scott e.w at 14-1!!
Seriously though, Scott does look a cracking wager, with his current form, his major form and the all round test that this course will present, means he should be shorter, maybe considerably so.
Players will not have the usual penal US Open rough to contend with, so although afforded a bit more space off the tee, Scotts superb driving will still give him an initial advantage on most of the field. His long iron game has been in great shape, and with 4 par 4s over 500 yards, that will be needed this week. His putting has looked a lot more assured of late, especially from the crucial 6-10 foot range.
What I believe to be the biggest factor in his favour this week, and what will get him over the line, is the World No.1 status. Although its a small sample size, he has seemed a different animal since inheriting it. He now appears to expect to win, rather than the tame finisher he appeared in the past. His playoff win against Jason Dufner in the Crowne Plaza was absolutely top class. Forced to produce, he produced in spades.
He has developed into a serious Major player. 7 top tens in his last 13 majors shows that he raises his game for the big events. He has one in the bag, and he looks like he is ready to make inroads towards garnering the other 3, especially while the Tiger remains in the long grass. I cant see him not contending.
Though very very sweet on Scotts chances, there are others who appear attractively priced aswell.
Chief amongst them, would be the 125-1 available on Jonas Blixt. Like Augusta, this place could be made for his scrambling and putting. He would not usually be on my radar in a typical US Open, but on these wide fairways, he will have a little more margin for error with his wayward drives. He is a genius around the greens, banging in 8 and 10 footers for par with his eyes closed. That will be crucial this week.
They have no intention of watering the greens before Thursday, and if the rains don't come, it doesn't matter how good your chipping is, you are going to be faced with a number of testers for par. If my life depended on someone holing a 10 footer, this would be the man holding the flat stick. He hasn't won a major, but I am convinced he will. In his 3 efforts so far, he has finished 24th, 4th and 2nd. Serious, from a player starting at multiple 3 figure prices in them all.
I am trying to stay away from Major Sh*tters this week, the likes of Westwood, Kuchar etc, so my next port of call was the former World No.1 Martin Kaymer, himself with a major under his belt. Winner of this years Players Championship, he looks ready to return to the games elite, and at 45-1 surely has more chance than plenty priced shorter than him. Again, he is unwavering in a battle, and can be counted on to hole the clutch par putts more frequently than most.
Scott was superb in that brilliant playoff for the Crowne Plaza, but it takes two to tango, and Jason Dufner more than played his part. Had he holed anything like the amounts of putts that you would expect from one of the games top players, then there would have been no need more a playoff. But the Duffman regularly makes a meal out of a 3 footer, and this isn't going to change.
So, why back him this week?? Well, anyone that is going to have designs on winning this week, is going to have to have a good week with the putter, and at 50-1, that chance is worth taking with Dufner. He has been a slow burner this year, but that Texas showing showed he now has the ball on a string again, akin to his major winning performance of last year. Another point to note is Jason has gone on record saying how much he loves this course, and how he is looking forward to the event. His caddy is a club member, and will know every bounce around the greens. He will miss some 3 footers, no point thinking he wont, but he still has the game to go very close.
Someone who hasn't won a Major, but certainly raises his game to another level when faced with the bigger challenges, is Ian Poulter. He was trading at 130 and bigger on here last week, an absolute insult. Bigger than Bill Haas, and Gary Woodland, two players that will never win a major, and have nothing like Poults class. A superb effort in the St Jude has seen his price shorten, but the 80-1 in PP is still more than big enough. He hasn't been a fan of typical US Open rough in the past, but doesn't face that this year, and his supremacy around the green can see him in contention on Sunday. Maybe Justin Rose victory of a year ago, can inspire him to his first Major.
Stephen Gallagher has become a favourite of mine. He is a fairways and greens machine, akin to Hunter Mahan whom I backed when going close in this last year. He is a much bigger price though. He is another who seems to raise his game a notch when presented with the tougher challenges, and no test this year will be tougher than this. A cracking debut at Augusta showed he has what it takes to be a factor at this exalted level, and unlike in the Masters, he wont concede course knowledge to many here.
Dustin Johnson was tempting at 40-1, and Webb Simpson is attractively priced but I just about had enough of him last year, when consistently fading out of contention on Saturdays. Rory could obviously oblige, but unless the rains come his putting could come under severe pressure, and I believe Scott should certainly be favourite. Kevin Streelman is a massive price, and also peaks on the tougher layouts, and I may try to get him onside in other markets.
A cracking tournament to look forward to, on what promises to be a demanding layout. I get the feeling the cream will rise to the top, and that will be the new World Number One.
5pts e.w Adam Scott 14-1
.5pt e.w Jonas Blixt 125-1
.9pt e.w Martin Kaymer 45-1
.8pt e.w Jason Dufner 50-1
.5pt e.w Ian Poulter 80-1
.3pt e.w Stephen Gallagher 150-1
Running Total.....+5.35pts
Seriously though, Scott does look a cracking wager, with his current form, his major form and the all round test that this course will present, means he should be shorter, maybe considerably so.
Players will not have the usual penal US Open rough to contend with, so although afforded a bit more space off the tee, Scotts superb driving will still give him an initial advantage on most of the field. His long iron game has been in great shape, and with 4 par 4s over 500 yards, that will be needed this week. His putting has looked a lot more assured of late, especially from the crucial 6-10 foot range.
What I believe to be the biggest factor in his favour this week, and what will get him over the line, is the World No.1 status. Although its a small sample size, he has seemed a different animal since inheriting it. He now appears to expect to win, rather than the tame finisher he appeared in the past. His playoff win against Jason Dufner in the Crowne Plaza was absolutely top class. Forced to produce, he produced in spades.
He has developed into a serious Major player. 7 top tens in his last 13 majors shows that he raises his game for the big events. He has one in the bag, and he looks like he is ready to make inroads towards garnering the other 3, especially while the Tiger remains in the long grass. I cant see him not contending.
Though very very sweet on Scotts chances, there are others who appear attractively priced aswell.
Chief amongst them, would be the 125-1 available on Jonas Blixt. Like Augusta, this place could be made for his scrambling and putting. He would not usually be on my radar in a typical US Open, but on these wide fairways, he will have a little more margin for error with his wayward drives. He is a genius around the greens, banging in 8 and 10 footers for par with his eyes closed. That will be crucial this week.
They have no intention of watering the greens before Thursday, and if the rains don't come, it doesn't matter how good your chipping is, you are going to be faced with a number of testers for par. If my life depended on someone holing a 10 footer, this would be the man holding the flat stick. He hasn't won a major, but I am convinced he will. In his 3 efforts so far, he has finished 24th, 4th and 2nd. Serious, from a player starting at multiple 3 figure prices in them all.
I am trying to stay away from Major Sh*tters this week, the likes of Westwood, Kuchar etc, so my next port of call was the former World No.1 Martin Kaymer, himself with a major under his belt. Winner of this years Players Championship, he looks ready to return to the games elite, and at 45-1 surely has more chance than plenty priced shorter than him. Again, he is unwavering in a battle, and can be counted on to hole the clutch par putts more frequently than most.
Scott was superb in that brilliant playoff for the Crowne Plaza, but it takes two to tango, and Jason Dufner more than played his part. Had he holed anything like the amounts of putts that you would expect from one of the games top players, then there would have been no need more a playoff. But the Duffman regularly makes a meal out of a 3 footer, and this isn't going to change.
So, why back him this week?? Well, anyone that is going to have designs on winning this week, is going to have to have a good week with the putter, and at 50-1, that chance is worth taking with Dufner. He has been a slow burner this year, but that Texas showing showed he now has the ball on a string again, akin to his major winning performance of last year. Another point to note is Jason has gone on record saying how much he loves this course, and how he is looking forward to the event. His caddy is a club member, and will know every bounce around the greens. He will miss some 3 footers, no point thinking he wont, but he still has the game to go very close.
Someone who hasn't won a Major, but certainly raises his game to another level when faced with the bigger challenges, is Ian Poulter. He was trading at 130 and bigger on here last week, an absolute insult. Bigger than Bill Haas, and Gary Woodland, two players that will never win a major, and have nothing like Poults class. A superb effort in the St Jude has seen his price shorten, but the 80-1 in PP is still more than big enough. He hasn't been a fan of typical US Open rough in the past, but doesn't face that this year, and his supremacy around the green can see him in contention on Sunday. Maybe Justin Rose victory of a year ago, can inspire him to his first Major.
Stephen Gallagher has become a favourite of mine. He is a fairways and greens machine, akin to Hunter Mahan whom I backed when going close in this last year. He is a much bigger price though. He is another who seems to raise his game a notch when presented with the tougher challenges, and no test this year will be tougher than this. A cracking debut at Augusta showed he has what it takes to be a factor at this exalted level, and unlike in the Masters, he wont concede course knowledge to many here.
Dustin Johnson was tempting at 40-1, and Webb Simpson is attractively priced but I just about had enough of him last year, when consistently fading out of contention on Saturdays. Rory could obviously oblige, but unless the rains come his putting could come under severe pressure, and I believe Scott should certainly be favourite. Kevin Streelman is a massive price, and also peaks on the tougher layouts, and I may try to get him onside in other markets.
A cracking tournament to look forward to, on what promises to be a demanding layout. I get the feeling the cream will rise to the top, and that will be the new World Number One.
5pts e.w Adam Scott 14-1
.5pt e.w Jonas Blixt 125-1
.9pt e.w Martin Kaymer 45-1
.8pt e.w Jason Dufner 50-1
.5pt e.w Ian Poulter 80-1
.3pt e.w Stephen Gallagher 150-1
Running Total.....+5.35pts
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Replies: 47
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Yes going to be a cracking week ahead,with the golf and the world cup,what more could you want,Going for three e/w selection against the field,
1st selection is Adam Scott just back from Powers backed him e/w aswell at 14/1,agree with everything that call said about Scott,will be shocked if he's not inside the top 6,especially the way hes been driving the ball from the tee box,and ive also had a large e/w bet.fingers crossed he does the business for us, 2nd selection is also the same,going for Dufner aswell e/w at 50/1,agree with everything that call has said about him, 3rd selection is Bubba Watson,i know he's let me down before and it can be very annoying backing him,but just think its a big hitters course and if he gets his driving going he will make the long par 4's much easier than some of the others player's. Another reason why im backing him he's showing he can win major's,credit were credit is due,he's come back and won the Master's this year, Going to do a Trixie aswell for top players from their country aswell,will wait till all the markets are priced up then i'll post the selections. Selections, Adam Scott e/w 14/1, 6 places, Jason Dufner e/w 50/1 6 places, Bubba Watson e/w 18/1 6 places, Best of luck this week lads, |
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Done a Trixie earlier today,
Westwood top English player 10/3. Jimenez top Spanish player 10/3. Schwartzel top South African player 7/4. |
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Enjoyed your write-up until the piece about Poulter. A seriously overrated golfer. I could be proved wrong but I will be surprised if he wins a major.
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Backed 5 Haas Blixt Sendeker English Reed ...
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I wouldnt usually be a fan of him Clerk, certainly not as a person. But he has it in to perform on the big stage, and the prices he was trading at meant for once(and I would agree with you, the market and media has tended to overrate him more often than not) meant that he was backable. Definitely more so, than some at similar and shorter prices.
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Hi Cal, I thought I would see big Phil in ur write-up? I will stick with him @ 24/1 that will do for me. Enjoy it mate, and don`t be switching over to watch the footy as well......
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Taking ten days off work from Sat Easy,.....between the WC, US Open and Royal Ascot, the remote control is gonna take a pounding!!
Would love to see Phil win, but just couldn't back him off the back of such tame Sunday peformances this year. Best of Luck....24/1 would be tempting!! |
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Am planning on adding one more, as quite a few of my selections are big prices, so scope to add one more shorter one. But cant decide between Dusty, Webb or Serg. Dusty on the verge of being eliminated from consideration.....if he putts as poorly as last week, it would do my head in!!
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Yeah I know what you mean Cal, Keegan Bradley wrecks my head on that score, those 6-8ft putts???
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Ya, trying to stick with the reliable putters this week (apart from Dufner!!), there is going to be so many 6-10ft par saves to face.
Few nice prices on 3 balls, will post em up when I get on tomorrow. |
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Cant split Sergio and Webb, so have decided to back both at 33s and 45s, e.w. Puts the team up to 8, but still equates to a 9-2 shot on the win side of the bets, and all the place parts are generous.
One bet which jumps out to me as a rick, and huge value is Bet365 market on 'How many players finish under par'. They have one or less at 6-5. Its a 4-9 shot at best imo. This is a brute of a course. Rain on Thursday and Friday could soften the fairways, and make the greens easier to hold and hence let players attack flags more. But it will also make this beast play even longer. There may only be two par 5s on the scorecard, but in reality there is 6! They have no intention of watering before tee time, so if the rains dont come, then God help the players. Saturday and Sunday are now promised fine, so whatever happens early doors, come the weekend the greens will be lightning. Bubba Watson says he has kindly labelled the greens 'unfriendly'. So you can imagine what they really think of them!! The typical US Open winning score is around par, and with no rough this year, it might suggest it should be easier. I doubt it. I think if the rain doesnt come, and help, early doors, then 5 over could easily win this. I could be way off mark, but i think its the 6-5 that is way off. Continuing with that theme, (with equal weather) it may be that the late starters gain a slight psychological advantage on Day One. Early starters could see their score mounting and try to fight the course and end up with a cricket score. Late starters can learn from their competitors and see what will actually be a perfectly acceptable score, and play to a different strategy. In first day 3 balls, 4 which stand out are, Stephen Gallagher, Ian Poulter, Stewart Cink and Billy Horschel. Gallagher plays Boo Weekley who will struggle more than most on these greens, and DA Points who will struggle full stop. Poulter plays Jimenez and Jaidee, both of whom could be left broken hearted by the lenght of this track. Jimenez played last week like someone that needed a break. This is no fuc*in break!! Cink plays Justin Leonard and YE Yang. Leonard may hole a few more putts than most, but he too will be seriously disadvantaged by the lenght, and his early season promise has long since disappeared. YE Yang slumps from one missed cut to the next, and can hardly be expected to find sudden improvement needed here. Horschel plays Robert Allenby who couldnt even muster a made cut at one of his favourite venues last week, and Billy Hurley who is wildly out of his comfort zone. .9pt e.w Webb Simpson 45-1 1.1pt e.w Sergio Garcia 35-1 6pts One or Less Players to Finish Under Par 6-5 5pts Gallgher 6-4 5pts Poulter 6-4 6pts Horschel 11-10 6pts Cink 11-8 1pt accumulator |
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5 bets for me this week. Used driving distance, gir, scrambling as main stats to focus on. Also concentrated on form on donald ross designed courses as outlined by steve rawlings in his preview.
rory mcilroy 11/1 sergio garcia 33/1 jordan spieth 33/1 dustin johnson 33/1 bill haas 80/1 good luck all. |
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agree about scott 15.5 looks big,worry about his up n down ability a bit,though this course looks a bit like an australian course ,backing shane lowry and rickie fowler and paul casey as think they also look big,with the start of world cup and us open golf its sport heaven this w/end
done jb holmes also,hoping to trade out |
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one bet for me, course looks absolutely perfect for him to end his US Open disaster and win the last remaining major off his cv, Phil 'The Thrill' Mickelson
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Main bets for this week:
Adam Scott : Ticks all the boxes even tough i hate backing favs in golf. Bubba: Playing great and backed him in the masters. Webb Simpson e/w: Coming into a bit of form and has played the course alot. Dustin Johnson e/w: Rarely back him due to this inability to handle the pressure but think he has the game for this course. Outside small stakes: Gary Woodland(e/w) and Graham Deleat(e/w). Tick alot of the boxes for this course setup so could have a good week if the get hot with the putter. Think Scott is the man to beat. If the rain comes rory is a big danger but i never back him its to hard to catch him when he's right. Going to be a great week's golf and will be interesting to see how the course plays given no rough and the widened fairways. Think length of the tee will be a big advantage. Patience will be the key and trying to keep the big numbers off the cards. Last two opens here i think where won around par be interesting to see what the score will be. |
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Forgot to add, backed Poulter in top English player and Stevie Gallagher in top GB & Ire.
Poulter at 7-1 seems overpriced. Quite a few of them have no chance, but I feel his price is made by both Donald and WW taking up so much of the market. Westwood is going to need to be sublime tee to green, because when it comes to chipping and putting, sublime he certainly is not. Poult is not the longest off the tee, but Luke will suffer more, and when he has tried to eke out that extra few yards lately there has been disastrous consequences. I think Rose is the main danger here, but at the prices Poult has to be the bet, especially as Rose may suffer slightly from the expectations of being defending champ. Taking on the same players, and also Rory, G Mac etc, I feel Stevie Gallagher at 20-1 is worthy of e.w support in top GB&I. I think Stevie will have a very solid week, and for reasons outlined above this could see him going close to landing this prize. Apart from Poulter and Rose, Rory is an obvious stumbling block, but is priced accordingly. 2pts win Ian Poulter Top English 7-1 .7pt e.w Stephen Gallagher Top GB & IRE 20-1 Best of luck all, hopefully the weather plays fair. |
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Good write ups,agree regarding long hitters and that the course seems a bit "Aussie style",seems a bland enough venue all the same with the lack of water and doing away with the rough but no doubt will play as hard as previous years.Great coverage as well on the telly.
Just small stakes on a few i thought looked big though not in great current form. Z Johnson,J B Holmes,Snedeker,De Jonge,Watney,Guthrie,and Hurley111. Best of luck all and hopefully ye aren,t switching at 9.00pm. |
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Great previews lads...thanks
Phil carrying my main bet this week with some interest on J.Walker and Duffner Also Think Phil is value today (2.36) in what should be a match with Rose, who may suffer with the trappings of defending champ. |
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do I make that 2 of the four 3 ball bets as winners, callit?
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Yeah Oz, Cink and Poulter obliged. Small profit on them. Not a huge fan of Friday 3 balls, and haven't looked at betting yet, but if Gallagher is the same price tomorrow, I will certainly back him. He is tigerish, will dig in til the end, and with the greens being a lot faster tomorrow evening, I expect him to turn the tables on Boo.
Scott putted like a girls blouse. Nothing hit at the hole, f*ck all got to the hole. Playing well enough, hopefully Stevie gives him the gee up on the first tee tomorrow. Kaymer had a superb round, hopefully he can consolidate it tomorrow. If he shot 69 I would be delighted. Poulter had a good first day, and I expect him to hang around. Very disappointed with Blixt. He is hugely inconsistent, but I really thought he would rise to this challenge. |
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Stephen Gallagher at 13-8 is a good bet today. I cant see Points doing any better, and I would definitely make Stevie G fav against Boo.
5pts Gallagher 13-8 |
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Bet of the Day and perhaps the week, must be the 7-4 on Martin Kaymer in the 2nd round leader market. He was very controlled last night, splitting most fairways, and his putting stroke looks in great shape. The nice par putt on the last will send him out full of confidence. if he shoots 71, he should still lead, 72 may get a share of it. I don't envisage him going belly up, he's not that type of player.
8pts win Martin Maymer 7-4 2nd Round Leader (6-4 available on here) |
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kaymer playing very good golf
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good shout that callit.
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Very easy,wd Callit,know its a US open and 2 1/2 days to go but this looks all over, interest waining for non Kaymer backers.
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Was a serious round alright, putting was immense. Hard to see him beaten from here, and the 1.78 is massive. The Players victory, and how he finally clinched it will stand him in good stead. Kaymer is no ordinary player, he is a born winner, and though we are only halfway, unless he has a nightmare out nowhere tomorrow, its looking very good.
Poulter really should be at least 2, if not more, shots better. Hopefully he can see off Rose over the weekend to land top English......and hopefully a top 6. Cant believe Poults putt didn't drop on the last. FFS, he probably playing the second best golf, just not holing his share. Scott has worked his way back into the mix. |
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Im prone to sticking too many too many eggs in the one basket, but Adam Scott at 14-1 without Kamyer is definitely worth an investment, as is the 33-1 on Poulter.
I havent seen too much of it, flicking through recordings, but both players seem to have performed better than their score, with the putter letting them down for the most part. I expect the USGA to toughen it up over the weekend, as they wont want a repeat of Rorys ridiculous winnings score, and this will play into the hands of two men totally in control of their tee to green game. They sit in a nice psition in that they are not expected to win and others ahead of them may trip themselves up being too adventurous trying to chase down the hare. Stevie Williams knows how to win a major, and there is no point going hell for leather looking for birdies, especially if course is playing tough. Both himself and Scotty have the intelligence to be patient, and let it come. This could reap dividneds as others falter. 1.5pt e.w Adam Scott 14-1 w/o Kaymer .6pt e.w Ian Poulter 33-1 w/o Kaymer |
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Some excellent insight and tipping here callit,very well done!
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I backed Kaymer with Boyles at 40/1 money back if 2nd or 3rd including ties , all may betfair bets are more or less gone with the wind, i hope you are right about Kaymer Callit, but Golf can be a strange game.
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Sergio Garcia and Russell Henley look two ball bankers today, 8-11 and 4-5 respectively, and are well worth doubling.
5pts Double Garcia 8-11 & Henley 4-5. |
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Not a single player under par and plenty +3,4,5 etc with the earlies, only going to get worse as the day goes on. Seems as if PGA officials are trying to make a tournament out of it.
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They trying drag Kaymer back towards par. They don't want a repeat of Rory's Castration of Congressional! Easier hold onto a lead in tough conditions.
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Doing very well so far,finding the fairways, an eagle and long bogey putt save on 4 saving a dodgy time for him.
Will they ever feck off showing the way behind Poulter and his putting for pars. |
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I wish Poulter was making the pars Pa!!
Yeah, Kaymer hanging tough, the bogey putt was superb. The difference between a winner and a loser. |
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Cracking bird to finish from Kaymer. He really is ice cool. The English should have let the Germans take over...they might have inherited a pair of balls along the line!!
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Backed Snedeker in the betting w/o Kaymer 12/1,
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Have laid Fowler in his 2 ball...
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Hope you collect WR
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Your safe as houses after that!!
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