Irish Sports
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Obviously all punting relates back to the axis of subjective probability and actual odds and these thoughts are a bit over generalised but one would initially imagine that it should be easier to accurately decipher the true odds of an individual selection in contrast to laying multiple selections in one race. The majority of people can confute this concept through personal experience though. Obviously laying on here you're laying at premium odds and to an under round book when accounting for commission/charges so it is not comparable to laying with a margin.
I would concur with Royal Academy's point on another thread when inferring that the most prudent approach to a race where you're against the favourite (price dependent and reliant on having a strong opinion on the race) is to dutch other selections or look for some each way value.
I very rarely lay horses on here but interested to hear other viewpoints or approaches on here. I suppose one approach which could be profitable in the long run is to lay all the main protagonists at about 1/14 (could be along time between meals) and then collect the lot when an outsider wins such as Jetson or the first couple of races at Sligo today. In my opinion one of the worst approaches to laying is through the process of elimination or simply because it's a weak contest. I have not read Kevin Blake's book but one of his credible approaches to laying seems to focus on place laying likely non-stayers.
I would concur with Royal Academy's point on another thread when inferring that the most prudent approach to a race where you're against the favourite (price dependent and reliant on having a strong opinion on the race) is to dutch other selections or look for some each way value.
I very rarely lay horses on here but interested to hear other viewpoints or approaches on here. I suppose one approach which could be profitable in the long run is to lay all the main protagonists at about 1/14 (could be along time between meals) and then collect the lot when an outsider wins such as Jetson or the first couple of races at Sligo today. In my opinion one of the worst approaches to laying is through the process of elimination or simply because it's a weak contest. I have not read Kevin Blake's book but one of his credible approaches to laying seems to focus on place laying likely non-stayers.
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Those who can, do; those who can't, teach
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 pmsl |
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My laying record is terrible of late so my contribution should be treated as what not to do.
Three times I have gone broke laying a horse. Redera one day in Roscommon as I was sure he wouldn't handle the ground Hurricane Fly in his first Champion Hurdle as thought he wouldn't get up the hill Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas as I thought a he wouldn't train on from two to three. In each of these cases I had specific reasons for the lay,the opposition was kind of irrelevant because if my reasoning was right they wouldn't win. The same rules apply to my successful lays. So You Think came over from Australia I never liked him,didnt like his form so thought he couldn't win a race at Royal Ascot,he got beaten at 4/9 but won there the following year.. Similarly I had a host of reasons for laying Hurricane Fly and Annie Power at Cheltenham this year. Backing the second and third favourites in these races could lead to the doomsday scenario where you correctly see a dodgy favourite but end up losing because an outsider wins. Laying is hard on here which is why Betfair does everything in its power to favour the layer. They hate the layers of dead ones but have now almost become co conspirators with them so no action will be taken. |
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Re the laying; would often lay debutantes near the head of the market from big yards that are weak in the betting late on, if the race itself looks a weak one of its type. Wasn't playing tonight only watching but the fact the Jonjo O'Neill horse went off at 3's in a bumper like that at the Worcester suggested to me that he either wasn't going to handle the quick ground, or was stone useless. The Hannon horse at Kempton might have been another to lay, they come on for the run but being by Kodiac in that kind of race 5/2 would suggest he isn't up to much. The second division looked stronger with a few good stables in it so I'd like to think I wouldn't have laid the Varian drifter that won snug in the end!!
Thinking on it, you might be better backing the next few in the betting but I guess I'm relying on one would initially imagine that it should be easier to accurately decipher the true odds of an individual selection Also tend to lay short prices in sprint handicaps and nearly all favs in Saturday handicaps which are ridiculously competitive. |
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99% of my betting on horses is now laying, was unsuccessful backing and tried laying and it has been profitable thus far.
As far as i'm concerned it just the same approach as backing, you analyse the race and see what way you think it will work out. I like to do my own pricing of races as it gives me a good idea of what I think is value and what isn't. The difficulty I found in backing is that the only chance of being profitable imo is very selective betting i.e. like Kevin Blake who had something like only 50 bets in the whole year. I could never be this disciplined. What I notice about the lays you have mentioned wildman is that I think they were all reasonably short priced favourites, there's nothing wrong with laying bigger priced horses although like the mentality of a bookmaker, you'd always be keen to get the favourite but you just have to stick to your analysis of the race. Roadrunner mentioned a thread on laying horses over 20/1 a while ago, any update on this? I'm sure the smart-arses will be on and ridicule this but i'm just saying what works for me. Golf laying has been disastrous the last few weeks for instance, you just have to live and learn. |
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I am surprised Newapproach and delighted to see you in profit.
The laying of outsiders sounds easy but you nearly have to be right all the time but for me what puts me off is I would never bet heavy odds on,laying to me is backing the field. Sole Power was put as a lay when he won at 100/1 as was Mon Mome can't see any recovery from that. These are extreme examples and accept are not applicable to Newapproach. |
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laying is for unsuccssful gamblers IMO, developed my skills in finding winners, went bust few times laying, because kept picking the winners
doesnt work for me. think laying is for certain individuals who have the right mindset, my notebook lists have had over 600 losers, thats an already made supply of possible lays. goodluck to you if you are doing well, have the patience and develop your skills, im sure you will have a nice little income on the side. suppose if was interested in laying for a living, would be using THETOP FLAT RACING SIRES LIST, most likely would choose certain stallions and follow all there runners and pick off the losers like that. develop a strategy, after while its possible you will be able to find some of the winners as well, if you track all the runners. |
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Eh, thought you were retiring from here roady?
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did you notice RUN IT TWICE won today, you probably dont remember that horse
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What did ya make of that Baker 2yo tonight Snap, very unlucky as they were right in thinking they'd the measure of the Hannon horse but then the Palmer horse comes out and roasts em all. Her form with Elsworths Merdon Castle was actually pretty good in hindsight.
Didn't see the race, but I saw George Baker went close at Lingfield today at a big price, doubt anyone had a piece somehow. |
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Don't think he's the most genuine neill that particular 2yo, that flyball form in hindsight probably isn't the strongest. Laid Hannons in the race, as heard was v ordinary and had it into George's at 7/4.
Yes that was a good run at lingfield, he had lost his way a little but seems to have his appetite back for it again, had no play in the race. |
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I thought he was trying to hang in behind a few others as the Palmer horse was just starting to get away as well.
George still has more races in him, old fav of mine and hoping to catch him right at some stage. He travelled lovely there today having just seen the vid so I would be interested in him at lingfield particularly. |
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Mrs Warren didn't run too badly for the team either at Kempton, very much a nearly day, with three 2nd's!
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very interested in newapproach post about laying..delighted you're ahead now mate..takes a clever man to know if something is not working and to try another avenue..personally I lay about 4 a year!..and it,ll be a favourite that I think should not be..but im a player not a layer..but its no mean feat to make it pay..so fair play..ive made no secret that I don't like laying horses..but its part of the punting arsenal now...best of luck newapproach..(pay no attention to anyone who has a go)..
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England to win the World Cup are currently priced at 26 on here. Their main Group stage opponents are priced Italy 28 and Uruguay 34 on the same market.
However, the following are the prices to win Group D : England 3.4, Italy 2.74 and Uruguay 3.15. The "to qualify" prices are reflective of the Group Win prices. 28/1 is easily available with the major bookies on England to win the W.C.. They should be at least 33/1 in my opinion. |
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Make that 25 England now !!!
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Laying successfully takes just as much discipline as punting..
WMFB you say re your lays above that the opposition was irrelevant, in my opinion that should never be the case. You should have at least 2 and preferably 3 horses that you think will beat the horse you are laying. This would be on top of your initial reason for taking on the horse. i.e. ground, trip etc. I am in favour of the each way punt against a dodgy fav, particularly in novice/maiden hurdles and beginners chases where only a select few can win as opposed to handicaps.. |
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Thanks wildman, tony - have been busy lately so haven't had much time to reply.
Regarding laying big price selections, every bet I place has the same liability so doesn't matter if the horse is 2/1 or 20/1, I'll still lose the same amount if the horse wins. It also rewards getting a shorter one beaten. Majority of my selections would be under 10/1 but I do lay bigger prices occasionally. I also find the summer jumps to be profitable, a lot of big price winners in these races during the week @ clonmel and Sligo for instance although I didn't have any bet @ either meeting. It's a very difficult time of the year for backing imo. I know where you're coming from wildman in terms of not backing heavy odds on, it's not something I have ever done either. But I still think its less risky than laying. In most instances, I'd still feel more comfortable laying a horse and having the field running for me rather than backing a very short priced runner. But obviously that's a very vague example. |