Fairyhouse & Cork

sorry dj..I didn't see you thread..

No problem Tony, they seemed to appear instantaneously. I should have waited a few minutes, normally the original poster gets the most abuse.

I knew you justifiably liked Martello tower who was given a considerate ride lto, the Mullins horse drifted alarmingly before bolting up at Navan (the fourth Missypet beaten 12 lengths has sine won a weak mares bumper at Clonmel).

yes I,ll be playing tomorrow just hope 4/1 is available?..i may see what price WICKLOW BRAVE is..as although he was disappointing @the festival..it was a hot race

just noticed O'Meara runs one in the 2.55,this is a shrew operator..started with 30 horses..now up to 100+ with big owners as this one is cheveley park..not sure its up to winning on debut here but it has run well fresh before..anyone got a opinion..?

Funnily enough on my first glance at the card I was very keen to take on Wicklow Brave.I though he weakened quite dramatically in the closing stages of the Supreme and while he has won on heavy I think there was no strength in depth in either of those races.He is a strong traveller (albeit a little keen) and I think he could look a winner in running but won't get home.

I can certainly see your point of view Tolmi and to say he weakened dramatically is 100% correct, having trader IR at 2.32 in the win market before the last. He still finished only 2 lengths behind Sergant Reckless and 3 an a half lengths behind Josses hill. My following point might seem a bit unusual but I believe tomorrow's race will suit more than the end to end gallop of a festival race.

That was over almost 2m 1f at Cheltenham where they went a scorching pace on good ground (15 seconds faster than course average).
Although obviously WB is more of a speed horse than a grinder, I feel that a relatively slower run race will play to his strengths(he travels so well even on soft ground) and I will be surprised if he does not simply outclass these. It is an instance where I believe the pace of the race is the more crucial factor than the ground which I believe he is versatile on.
There is always the chance that Cheltenham has left its mark but I think 6/4 more than incorporates that.

magic magnolia 5-40 to continue the owner and trainers fine form 5 out of the last 8 runners have won.

I would certainly agree that Wicklow Brave should be marked up on his effort at Cheltenham.

The 3rd quarter of the race was abnormally quick, and Wicklow Brave was fastest through this particular section. It is no surprise so, that he faded slightly late on.

He traveled like the second best horse, was the last one apart from the winner to come off the bridle, and the times back up that he was indeed the second best horse in the race.

I was surprised and disappointed that he did not show up in Aintree on Friday, as i would have expected him to beat Josses Hill. I would not worry at all about a fast run 2m 1f for him, if used optimally he would be fine.

He doesn't need to be better than the Chelt result to win tomorrow, yet in all likelihood he is. 6-4 is a cracking bet.

Very good card. I am a big fan of Renneti also, and will be backing him too. Fences next year will be the making of him, but i would be surprised if he doesn't bag this on his way.

anyone else find it strange that c byrnes has opted to run his mare feenagkilmeedy in the grade2 rather than the grade 1 mares race.She was travelling sweet enough last day before coming down and would have had a rite chance in a average looking grade 1.seems strange to me for a trainer who places his horses very well.

Martello tower is way to short imo..I thought it would be 3/1 min..? 7/4 is very short..considering the mullins horse is in the field..likely winner for me..but not at that price..i can only hope hes bigger @ the off

I agree with Call on WB and if he runs to his best form he wins. Late on in the Supreme he looked the only danger to the winner. The question is has he recovered from Chelt.

My confidence took a bit of a battering yesterday started badly when Barry fell 3 out in the first when creeping into the contest and it just went down hill fast after that.

The drift on Hinterland was alarming and ran alarmingly.

Maarek always runs well fresh so I've no worries on that score and if around 90% fit should take care of this bunch with the minimum of fuss.

I was mighty impressed with Apache Stronghold last time, I know he's had his problems since but I'm loathe to oppose him.

I might chance Aidriana Des Mottes although the longer trip is a bit of a worry.

Seems to be plenty of confidence behind Wicklow Brave short as 10/11 now in most places.

Great to finally see a proper Irish racing thread with insightful intelligent analysis.

Looks like Wicklow Brave was indeed a value spot at 6/4.

I just can't bring myself to back a horse who weakened so dramatically on his last run.I remember coming to the second last thinking he looked a winner and not believing how far he was beaten.I am anxious to lay him but my confidence is tempered by the lack of viable alternatives in the field.One thing I've learned over the years is not to blind lay lay horses you don't fancy without coming up with a few possibilities in the opposition.I will lay WB and the state of the ground/earlier race times as well as his price will determine my stake.

As for Feenakilmeedy I have a feeling that the entries for the mares grade 1 might have closed a few weeks ago when she was still a maiden and its possible she was not entered.I would have to agree with Alan Sweetman in today's post that that it is hard to believe that the race has grade 1 status.Equally hard to believe is that no UK trainer saw fit to have a runner in it.

Wicklow Brave did look the winner before weakening at Cheltenham,agree with the different pace today which will suit,the only question mark is Valsuer lido being only 2L off but would think Wicklow should confirm,all the rest look well held on previous form.
All in all hard to be against.
Like Feenakilmeedy Limerick as a horse but bit guessy jumping and can be very keen which are a couple of issues with her,talented all the same.

3.15 90,000 of taxpayers money for what must be the worse Grade 1 race ever. Still something has to win and I think Layla Joan could improve enough to take this.
3.50 Apache Stronghold done me a turn at Navan but hasn't run since so I will take a chance on Lietenant Colonel at 6/1.
5.25 James, provide the jockey doesn't feck up again should win.
5.55 Measureofmydreams won easy at Navan and is a decent price.

At Cork surely if Maarek is half right he will win this .

Good luck all.

your probably right tolmi actually.would be most unlike trainer not to place her spot on.her jumping is a bit dicey.its a pity she's not in mares.she'd be backable in that with a clear round.travels well in her races

Looking at the card at Cork from the placepot perspective:

Race 1: 5f 2yo Maiden
Bwana - 4/5 - apart from Alainn, the only other to have raced, putting in a very smart performance when 2nd to Beach Belle on the opening day of the flat over the trip on sft/hvy

Race 2: 5f 3yo Handicap
Danehill Brook - all 4 runners making their seasonal debuts. this fellow won over the trip on his 2nd start last season and hopefully he can prove better than his 2 full sisters who appeared to be flops (1 did die as a 3yo) having costs €240k & €235k each

Race 3: 6f 3yo+ Listed
Maarek - loves it soft and goes well on his seasonal debuts, winning a listed race at Naas from Screambluemurder last term

Race 4: 7f 3yo+ Handicap
This looks to revolve around Canary Row, Sun On The Run, Caprella & Srucahan. Connections of Canary Row ran well in 3rd in the Lincolnshire, but connections seem worried about getting weight off his back.
Chris Hayes is back on Srucahan but he may be best over 5/6f and might be slightly out classed here.
Caprella has won well in listed/G3 company over this trip in the past and might have more scope to overtake the 3rd place behind Srucahan's 2nd on the opening day of the flat over 6f.
Sun On The Run appeared to have his run checked on the opening day of the flat behind Srucahan & Caprella. Bolger is flying at the moment in the heavy going and these Whipper's seem to have no problem with the conditions

Race 5: 8-9f 3yo C&G Maiden
Obviously looks to revolve around Stack's Onenightidreamed & Jocular
Onenightidreamed's 2nd to Bolger's Answered on the opening day of the flat caught the eye with the yard going well at this time of the year, but looking at the results of the other Footstepsinthesand/Pivotal crosses wouldn't inspire confidence
Jocular is a half brother to Lolly for Dolly, G2/3 winning mare for the Stack yard on soft/heavy ground. He was described as a big sort following his debut at Dundalk 2 weeks ago and should come on from that and relish the ground

Race 6: 8-9f 3yo Handicap
very trappy
Ruler Of France strangely holds entries for 6f & 10f races @ Newmarket in 10 days time. Looking at his 2yo career, his last run at Listowel reads pretty well behind Mekong River, Hidden Oasis & Colour Blue
Focussed might need weight off his back
Looking at Elegant Peace's half-siblings, they all appeared to win over shorter, so I'd have concerns about the trip, but her trainer is so enigmatic nothing should surprise
Princess Aloof could come on for her recent run and might surpass Lady Clitico

So to recap:
1: Bwana
2: Danehill Brook
3: Maarek
4: Sun On The Run
5: Jocular
6: Ruler Of France

g/l

^ I just love this man's presentation skills.  Take a bow, Sir.

One finds the 7/4 on Maarek quite tempting.

Tony really like o meara horse here as an animal, if he has made the usual progression from 3 to 4 i expect to be at least g3 class, im with him here

Evidence that suggests Maarek is regressing
April '12 -gives 24lb to An Saighdiuir and beats 1L
April '13 -gives 20lb to Screambluemurder and beats 1 1/2 L

Today on significantly better terms -no threat to either.

Or A.O.B had it over the winter............. Lol

Wd Tolmi and Easygold

glad to say I left Wicklow brave..but did back the omeara runner(very disappointing)..pp giving money back on the mullins thing in the last race...

^^^does any1 on here actually believe what this t0sser comes out with?

Stacks filly should be good enough to win the last imo.

LOL mr paragraphandimaguesserDJGUESS#anotherhumancascow ching ching

I didn't go in big but had a reasonable lay.Funny enough reference was made in the Post and possibly on here about the easier track.I thought the easier ground would more than offset the easier track.As a rule of thumb I look at the race times to see if its a tougher test or not.I was expecting today's race to be run in approx 4m5s..it was actually a bit less.It still meant they were racing for about 17s longer than Cheltenham despite the supposed easier test.Combined with the way WB had finished indicated to me that he was vulnerable in the ground despite having won on it.

Scouse Tony finally gets one up...well done Tony, fair play to you have great heart to keep at it

lol....d`ozy is potless after following the guessmeister from the tabloids......your boom on your tipping thread tells everyone all they need to know,,,,,,

WD Tolmi.

Sounds stupid, having backed WB, but im nearly half glad he was beat!!

Had a decent enough accum done, Arvika, Adrian Des Mottes, Renneti, W Brave and Matello. Was done in PP. They refunded on Renneti on singles only.

Starter was some idiot. It was plain to anyone watching, that Renneti had absolutely no inclination to start. Its a small field, he can surely note this, and make the proper decision to have him withdrawn. It hasn't cost me any money today, but Im sure it has cost plenty of others.

The punter needs to be looked after better in these circumstances, the onus shouldn't be on the bookie to potentially turn a winning result into a losing one, by refunding.

I backed rennet,callit,..missed the race..just watched the beginning..ffs..joke ..fair play to pp..rich don't bother mate..just not worth it mate

Would like to see them get Renneti out in that Beginners Chase at the start of the 'new' season at Punchestown a la Sizing Europe. Put what happened today behind him. Assuming he has been schooling all along that is.

I wonder sometimes can horses get away with it on ground they don't like in a lesser grade and was that the story with Wicklow Brave in combination with a dog hard race at Cheltenham. Given the ability he showed at Cheltenham, a mark of 145 would be feasible enough and I would like to see him freshended up and tried in the Galway Hurdle. It's a stiff finish, but he travels well enough for good handicaps and he should the ground enough in his favour.

The winner looks decent, but that was a disgrace of a Grade 1 today on paper. I understand they want to encourage owners to keep mares in training but I think that money would be better spent spread out at a more intermediate level in listed races or good mares handicaps. Willie will keep one for this race each year and will farm it from now till infinity. The mare that won today would have slotted in fine in the Grade two coming up at the Easter Festival or in either of the two graded novice races run today.

Did you see them going down Tony? I only seen from post time. There was massive drift on him late. Was he recalcitrant going to post??

he's a highly strung fella all right. Fences over 2 miles is a bit less of a stamina test. He'd remind one a bit of Sanctuaire and Twist Magic, both of whom turned out to be cracking chasers.

didn't see him going down only the start..callit..

At least dj876 puts up his skinny selections before the race but there is no call for this sort of aftertiming drivel;

Vubiant 06 Apr 14 15:08 Joined: 02 Aug 04 | Topic/replies: 4,718 | Blogger: Vubiant's blog
Evidence that suggests Maarek is regressing
April '12 -gives 24lb to An Saighdiuir and beats 1L
April '13 -gives 20lb to Screambluemurder and beats 1 1/2 L

Today on significantly better terms -no threat to either.

Callit , he looked terrible in the paddock , trace clipped , small and will find it hard if he does go fencing imo...

Cheers WR.

Small but an athletic looking kind of fella to me from the way he gallops. We'll see sure.

LOL....

Ozymandius 06 Apr 14 11:41 Joined: 01 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 9,046 | Blogger: Ozymandius's blog
Great to finally see a proper Irish racing thread with insightful intelligent analysis.

Looks like Wicklow Brave was indeed a value spot at 6/4.

and wait,,,,,

Replies: 42
Ozymandius
Ozymandius 06 Apr 14 13:21 Joined: 01 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 9,046 | Blogger: Ozymandius's blog
One finds the 7/4 on Maarek quite tempting.

not to mention the hatchet job he done on the wee 6 in his sport of choice oval ball,,,,,,anyway dozy apart from being a ponce i have decided not to respond to anymore of your childishness life on here,so good luck to ewe and the 5 followers that wanted ewe to stay.....

and as for the british tabloid correspondent djguess i suggest ewe should try american racing or indeed the all weather seen because ewe dont seem to do well at the british or oirish nh or flat seen....#onlysayin