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wildmanfromborneo
21 Mar 14 21:04
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Date Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 21,252 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
Last race in Dundalk looked to me a competitive little handicap,yet they bet 11/8 and 2/1 looked berserk to me.
Two horses shorten in the market to ridiculous levels,is it down to market manipulation or down to the stupidity of the handicapper.
They finished first and second so its fair to say they knew.

In a four horse race in Thurles yesterday they bet 13/8 and 7/4 on two horses miles clear on ratings,amazing.
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Report Rocketfingers March 22, 2014 5:49 PM GMT
Amigo you fail to see the bigger picture, surely other factors come into consideration when pricing a race. I never considered you as stupid as you say you are but  but the evidence is building up and  contradicting my opinion thus i'm starting to change my mind.
Report pa lapsy March 23, 2014 3:02 AM GMT
Glad to see that your sojourn in "sunnier climbs" has made ya go all multilingual,a fierce post indeed. Could you possibly explain some of the other factors that come into consideration when pricing up a race yourself please?
Report Rocketfingers March 23, 2014 8:58 AM GMT
Distance, ground, form, perceived fitness, course etc etc, Pa i can't believe you think, like Wildman, bookies just prices on ratings.
Report wildmanfromborneo March 23, 2014 9:06 AM GMT
A complete misunderstanding of the opening post,the " sunnier climbs " have done nothing for your reading ability.
Report Rocketfingers March 23, 2014 9:35 AM GMT
I don't even bet on horse racing and you two are self proclaimed horse racing experts, with Pa being sent up by Wildman (which i think is kinda cruel btw) as the best pricer of a race on the forum. But to think bookies and punters just bet of ratings without taking other factors into consideration is very funny Laugh I'd love to be your bookie lads.
Report wildmanfromborneo March 23, 2014 9:44 AM GMT
The handicapper handicaps on ratings ( something I have objected to for years ) ratings would be a factor in bookmakers prices.

You fail to differentiate between opening prices and the SP.
Normally its the punters that decide the SP but sometimes an SP can be so skewed you know something is wrong.

The Dundalk SP is a manipulated one,as are n most of the SPs up there.
Friday night is drunks night in the shops,most in England seem to think every Dundalk horse has three letters in its name and bets accordingly.

The Thurles race is dealt with on another thread but the same principle applied,weight of opposition caused the drift.
Report Rocketfingers March 23, 2014 9:57 AM GMT
Listen don't want to hear about drunks in England Wildman not sure what they have to do with your ignorance/lack of knowledge in pricing a horse race or how a market is formed. Look Wildman and Pa, the best advice i can give you two lads is stop betting and go for a meal over the weekend with friends and family instead. No need to say thanks lads, bye.
Report pa lapsy March 23, 2014 10:03 AM GMT
Give me a break this morning Rocket,the head is hopping.
Most important factor with a book pricing up a race is the mirroring of exchange prices.
No expert by any means,i know that and at times can be a fair bit out,still do try to read the form first and then put a price on each before betting is available as it gives me an idea of what i think(key word) the prices should be,that is all.
You being a football bettor must surely do the same and try and price the teams yourself to some degree?
Report wildmanfromborneo March 23, 2014 10:11 AM GMT
Rocketfingers doesn't understand the difference between an opening show and SP,thinks you can get hundred grand bets on League Of Ireland matches in Asia.
Thinks that when the books priced My Titania at 5/2 And Pa Lapsy disagreed said it was a mistake he priced it at 4/5 horse won at 11/10 Rocketfingers thought Pa Lapsy was wrong.

The man is a fantasist who doesn't bet now and never did in the past which is why he cannot grasp any facet of betting.
Report Rocketfingers March 23, 2014 10:28 AM GMT
Wildman, Betting is just not for you my friend. You go to race meetings amigo and you live on here but yet you think a market is solely formed on horses ratings and the most worrying thing is you seem to be making fun of drunks in England who have no idea about betting, well amigo all you're missing is the drink ;)

Yes Pa i price all my own games each weekend which numbers at approx 54 games per weekend at the moment and trust me i don't price a match after looking at someone else's prices first and i have to take more into consideration than just my ratings on teams like people who influence the market in any sport do.
Report pa lapsy March 23, 2014 10:42 AM GMT
Now we are getting somewhere Rocket,so when you price up your teams you obviously don,t get them all right as peoples interpretation of factors are different(hence a layer and a backer till a fairly true price is reached shortly before an event after what can be a fair few fluctuations). You are doing no different then what i try(key word) to do with horses. Not sure i deserve your scorn earlier in the thread as surely you know after doing your pricing for the 54 teams it is next to impossible to be wholly right.
Report wildmanfromborneo March 23, 2014 10:56 AM GMT
We are worse Pa to argue with a man who can't differentiate between opening show and SP ( fifteen minutes could be the easiest way to explain it to him.

He naturally didnt understand the reference to drunks and definitely didnt get the three letter reference.
Report pa lapsy March 23, 2014 11:03 AM GMT
I couldn,t help replying because of the "amigo" bit.
Report Ozymandius March 23, 2014 11:46 AM GMT
Whats going on here then?

Surely not Old Pa Lapsy, salt of the earth and self confessed 'proper racing man' involved in yet another heated argument to the detriment of the forum?   

Get thee to Mass of a Sunday morning and calm thyself.
Report wildmanfromborneo March 24, 2014 8:19 AM GMT
Why don't you just read the thread.

The thread is about market manipulation and betting markets,your pal Rocketfingers didnt understand it but decided to launch his usual misguided attack,failed to grasp the difference between opening shows and SPs,there was no heated argument.

You could say it was an exercise in futility as its pointless to try and discuss anything with the " loan masked man "
Report pa lapsy March 24, 2014 8:25 AM GMT
You sticking your oar in again ozy with absolutely nothing to do with you.
Nothing was heated here by me,read the thread again.
The only question here which has been evaded is how many of the 54 teams that Rocketfingers prices up himself gets right,no answer because he knows i,m correct and it is very few.
Also the inaccuracy of his 9.35 post where he just spouts what he wants with no factual basis,read the thread again ozy because with that post you are also just spouting inaccuracies, why? that is also to the detriment of the forum.
Report steinbeck March 24, 2014 12:41 PM GMT
Was at Dundalk on Friday,for only the second time since the place opened, and seen a high street bookmakers rep going around the betting ring taking 3/1 about a horse that was trading at between 7.0 and 7.6 on here at the same time.Granted the horse got beaten,but its S.P. return was 11/4.This seems to be normal practice in that Gaff week after week i am led to believe.The betting shop punter getting fleeced with corrupt markets.How hri can stand over this practice is beyond belief,they get paid a small fortune from sis for the integrity of the S.P.s,and even appointed an integrity officer,a new position within hri to oversee the betting ring prices to make sure that no malpractice or manipulation takes place.
Report wildmanfromborneo March 25, 2014 9:03 AM GMT
Steinbeck after his fair third in the Lincoln has this spot on.

The manipulation of the betting market in Dundalk is wrong and is skewing the SP.

Its not that favourites are being backed off the boards in the handicaps,the market is notoriously weak,the bookies there are even weaker,the chains are able to shorten up horses for small money.
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