This Layer Needs Guidance

MY THREE  LAYS

BIG BUCKS
SIRE DE GRUGY
VAUTOUR

I ALSO THINK THE FLY WONT WIN BUT NOT PREPARED TO TAKE ON WHAT IS A FANTASTIC CHAMPION

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS

Hurricane is hard to predict WMFB. A week ago, I would have thought he a certainty to start fav, but with the ground drying out, not so sure. It will be the softest ground of the week though, and considering he has been hopped off the last 3 years, the huge public factor involved in a horse going for 3 champions, the Ruby factor etc, I would think he will still go off fav. Prob 5-2 on track.

The New One and MTOY both look like they will be very solid too. Huge confidence behind TNO, and MTOY has the JP/AP factor. Our Conor will probably be the pre race drifter. I think he is the danger to TNO, but strictly on the book, he can be said to be short enough at the moment, and little scope to go lower.

If I was laying Quevega, I would lay her now. She will be bigger tomorrow, certainly in the early exchanges where I would suggest she will form part of at least one bookmakers promotion. It might only be for €20, but expect at least one firm to go at least 5-4, if not 6-4. Obviously the BF market will fall into near line with this. For a stage anyway. Hard to predict SP, as what Ruby/WPM/other favs have done throughout the day, will have a bearing, but I can see her starting 11-10.

Likewise AP price will be slightly subject to how the meeting has gone so far, but I think she will start short, possibly 11-8/6-4. BB will have the public vote, akin to HF, but it may be diluted here, as AP has really caught the imagination. Could be an absolute superstar, and I can see a big pre race plunge. AFC has to drift on decent ground. More of That is the value to my eye, and has been for weeks, but the market is quite idiotic as regards jockeys choices, so unless McCoy jumps ship, he will start bigger than he should.

All in all, I would hazard a guess at:
5-2 Hurricane Fly
11-10 Quevega(to be bigger in the AM)
11-8 Annie Power

Agree with laying hurricane fly but wouldn't lay the other 2 in a million years, just laying the 2 mares from a value perspective or what?

I wont be laying the mares myself. Have no bet on Quevega yet, but expect to when the price war starts.

Have decent bet accumulated on AP over the last few months, average 11-2. Never thought there any chance of her running in CH as long as HF was fit and well.

I wouldn't bother my head laying Q or AP, Borneo.

That seems the general view alright.

I can see Annie Power being pulled up,she doesn't jump well enough and may not stay,these are experienced hurdlers they will be pinging their hurdles at speed which will make her miss out a few.

I thought all three would drift.
I have laid Quevega at 1.85
Hurricane Fly is 4.4 to lay I haven't dealt yet so debating whether to hang on.
I have laid Annie Power at 2.98 but will be going in again.

Can ye see Annie Power starting around 2/1 I can but respect Callitasucits view.
Similarly I can see Hurricane Fly starting around 7/2 and bigger here.

Who in your view can you see beating Quevega ?

Fair question,herself.
She is obviously injury prone,is getting on and she looked beat to me last year.
She is however my least confident lay.

For me she is banker material.

Proven at the track and over the trip.

She wouldn't even have to run up to the same level as she did last year to win.

Just going through the mares behind her in the betting now, and in all fairness are half of them out on day release or what?

More holes in that cockney sparrow than a block of swiss cheese as well, who is the clear 2nd fav

Thanks for the compliment Wildman, give me a bumper/beginners etc on a wet thurs at Thurles anytime rather then trying to collate a price with English/Irish form,hard as seldom do x channel racing nowadays.
As said above an 80% Quevega wins,really looks different class, Mullins gives anyway confident positive comments regarding well being guess the sp will be 8/11.
Think Annie Power on the sole basis of the trip won,t be plunged in too much,maybe 7/4.
The Fly and TNO,a head to head 5/2 each of two i agree with.Doubt there will be 7/2 unless on a books special.Rather than the lay of him your other option of backing an English winner(if able to get on at your price) might be another cheaper alternative.
Think rather than going too deep on the win lays if you consider Quevega could be gone and Annie won,t stay surely the place lay option could be considered?
Apologies for nothing concrete,don,t really have a strong viewpoint,fwiw my festival will be up to Faugheen and Foxrock ,glad to you not naming them.
As an aside "your"horse See Double You won very easily again over the weekend.

Thanks Pa some great points there.

I didnt touch See Double You on Saturday because of the jockey but still delighted for him

I will be place laying Annie Power but that can only be done hours before the off.

I fancy an English Champion Hurdle winner alright but the drying ground will suit Jezki as will Barry Geraghty so cannot rule him out.

I would have a slight ground worry for both Foxrock and Faugheen but will lay neither.

I am also thinking of laying Ruby in the top jockey market.
Willie Mullins was given solo after solo in Ireland this season yet when he sent horses across the sea they had a poor record,I think many will be found out.

Many were of the opinion that Ruby gave Quevega a great ride last year but I wasn't so sure, my take was that he thought they were going to come back to him and when he realised these girls are not coming back at all he panicked, the great mare was suddenly off the bridle for the first time in the mares hurdle, with Ruby rowing away she eventually got on top close home to win going away, but that was the first time in the mares she was really tested, so there could be an argument that she might not be as good?, granted she did hose up at Punchestown after.

I see the French one who frightened the life out her last year re-opposes here, rather than lay the mare I might look for something in the region of 5/1 the French horse w/o Quevega.

Cockney Sparrow is interesting if she stays as her 2nd to MTOY in the Fighting Fifth is good form, granted she was getting the mares allowance which she won't be getting here, but shes interesting all the same and John Quinn is a trainer to be respected at Cheltenham and the booking of McCoy means she's pretty fancied I presume?.

Quevega nearly went got brought down at the top of the hill. This is what caused her to lose her position, at a time when they quickened. She done very well to win in the circumstances, giving them a serious start in a 6 furlong sprint. She then put up her most visually impressive performance to date at Punchestown.
I am not privy to information if she has deteriorated in the meantime, but she certainly had not deteriorated by the end of last season, and anyone placing their lay in this belief is off the mark, whether they prove successful or not.

no advice for those three races, will be hoping AP doesnt win the WH, if you didnt back HF in those prep runs and then back it
in the antepost markets, dont see the value in laying it now, when you could be laying it for free now. or did you back HF ?
because think you have formed your opinions months ago regarding the fly.

Callit she got slightly hampered on the bend she was not nearly brought down, Ruby was hard on the bridle after that seemingly contented with where she was, here is the video if you want to have a look back on it, I don't think it was ever his intention of getting on top 50 yards from the line, she got outpaced and imo panic set in, that of course is my opinion everyone is entitled to theirs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5bZkh0908c

I haven't watched it in a while SG, but the incident certainly cost her position, and a lesser mare may not have recovered from it. Tis indeed all about  opinions. But I cant see anything from last years two runs that suggest decline. Will be a backer at evens or better, and certainly expect to get it. 1.95 as we speak.

I know your opinions on the WPM operation, but I think Glens Melody may be the one to be on without. I have little doubt she would be favourite if Quevega wasn't in the race, so therefore there is no valid reason for her being so much bigger than Sparrow or the French filly.

But do you not think Ruby had ample time to move her a little closer callit?, I'm convinced he thought they would all start coming back to her, obviously it took class to eventually mow them down from what looked a hopeless position.

I think Ruby will ride her just a little bit closer this year?.

I can see Glens Melody running a sound race but I think she lacks a turn of foot, the French one wasn't stopping last year she just got beat by a superior mare.

I should get at least 5/1 w/o which I think is a sound investment if she's in the same form as last year?, actually I might do her ew w/o hard to see her not been in the first 4, of course we're banking on Quevega been in the first 3.

Ya, but Ruby would usually have started to move through the pack at the time of the incident, and been sitting a lot closer having used less energy, coming down the hill. Had he rushed her straight away, it probably would have been the losing of the race. He is a superb judge of pace, probably the best there is, so I wouldn't think that he would have got the fractions that wrong, that it resulted in a mare with a stone in hand only falling in.

The pace was slow, and hence why the French filly kept going. A horse can only go so fast, and if you give one an easy lead, and then turns into a sprint, ones superiority doesn't matter a jot if you are two lengths down, and physically unable to run that furlong two lengths quicker than the leader who has raced optimally the whole way. To my eye, the way the race unfolded, it was testament to both horse and jockey that they managed to pull it out of the fire.

As I said, she obviously could have gone backwards in the last 10 months, but I would imagine she is showing the right signs. For a mare that has been so wrapped in cotton wool, I doubt they would want to risk subjecting her to an Istabraq style sign off.

I wouldn't put you off Sirene SG, she probably has what appears to be the second best piece of form in the race. I just think she was flattered by the result.

It would be great if they went just a bit quicker in this years renewal, otherwise they may aswell just start at the top of the hill.

Come out of the fog will ya silver, cockney sparrow wouldn't get 2m5f around cheltenham on a hovercraft!

Did you not notice snap I did express doubts about her staying, but with the ground drying out all the time will make it a little easier to get the extra distance.

But there is positives, John Quinn is not one to tilt at windmills doesn't have too many runners at the festival but when he has its usually worth taking notice.

Countrywide Flame won the Triumph before running a cracking 3rd in last years Champion Hurdle, Character Building was a narrow r/up in I think the Festival Chase before winning the Kim Muir the next year, I remember that as I backed it.

The McCoy booking is usually a sign of confidence, and a 2nd in the Fighting Fifth to a fancied Champion Hurdle contender is potentially the best form in the race Quevega apart of course.

Sure what difference would Mc Coy make?

I thought jockeys don't make the blind bit of difference according to you?

They don't, you just have to read between the lines if a top jock is booked by a trainer its usually a sign of confidence, if Paddy Murphy had been booked you would get a bigger price, horses with the likes of Ruby or Tony on top the bookies will usually price them up a good few points shorter.

You came out on top in the lays WMFB.

Quevega grabbed victory from jaws of defeat again. Surprised the evens I wanted wasn't readily available, but Glens Melody in the w/o market was a fine substitute.

Cant believe AP didn't jump ship to More of That, especially considering the affection he has for Jonjo, and what riding a winner for him here means to him.