Irish Sports
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03 Mar 14
20:50
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27 Sep 11
A cracking event, which will be made all the more intriguing if Tiger Woods makes the starting tape. He certainly shouldn't be 16-1 if he does, as if he lines up you would think that the back problem has cleared up, as at 38 he wont want to be missing any Majors in his quest for Jacks record. If he is to line up, I will back him, but would prefer to take the 14s with Powers. The week before Cheltenham, public goodwill be at fever point. If Tiger is playing poor, and triggers another pull out, I would be shocked if PP don't refund.
But that's all hypothetical as I don't think he will start. One player who will be there, and there with a serious chance, is Matt Kuchar. Kuch has been his usual consistent self this season, denied a possible defence of his Matchplay title by an inspired Jordan Spieth. Spieth performed horribly in his next rd, but he was clinical on the greens against Kuchar, who didn't do much wrong in his defeat. Kuchar missed the cut at Riviera, but that venue holds no good memories for him, in contrast to this weeks track, where he has 3 top 10s in his last 4 visits. It is a slightly different layout this year, but I expect Kuchar to go very close to a deserved triumph. 35-1 with SJ certainly underestimated his chances. Indeed he was available at 40 on here. Ladbrokes went 5-4 on a top 20, something which should be closer to 1-2 imo,.....that didn't last long
Sergio Garcia also has to have every chance. He never really appeared in with a winning chance last week, but only finished 4 shots off the winner as it transpired. He will have been very happy with his 4 days work, and will fancy his chances of going 2 places better than last year. I cursed him from a height when he literally handed Ricky Fowler victory two weeks ago, but one positive to take from that is that Sergio is playing golf as a game now, not a highly pressurised business. This can only help someone who otherwise can be more emotional, and have more tantrums, than a pregnant woman!! 22-1 is definitely worth a bet.
Although course form is a big factor in backing these two, I contradict myself by next nominating Harris English, and hoping that because of the new layout, that he will be at much less of a disadvantage. I have backed him on a couple of occasions this year, and remain convinced he will be winning shortly. 40-1 underestimates his chances of doing it this week, and his late derailing of Rorys matchplay aspirations, confirms he is not one to shirk a challenge.
Phil Mickleson should not be 33-1 for anything!! Very price related this bet, as Phil has done nothing in recent weeks to warrant backing. But he can find form from nowhere, and at the inflated odds, I am more than prepared to take a chance on him producing it this week. Not long til Augusta, Big Phil will be hungry for a prominent showing.
Jim Furyk has gone along time between drinks, and may not be one to rely on in a back 9 tussle anymore, but he does come here in improved form, and has the course form to warrant backing. Produced a couple of good rounds in Dove Mountain, a week off coming into this is ideal, and I fancy him to be on the leaderboard come Sunday. Whether he can close it out is another thing, but I certainly expect him to repay top 20 support at 2-1.
Finally, one from left field is Kevin Streelman at 150-1. This week probably wont be as tough as last, but with the modifications, should still be a good challenge, and Streelman has a history of performing better on these more challenging layouts. Odds of near 40-1 seem perfectly acceptable for the place part of the bet.
Had been slightly interested in Nick Watney, but I don't particularly like him, and top price 70-1 wasn't enough to tempt me in.
.75pt e.w Matt Kuchar 35-1
1.1pt e.w Sergio Garcia 22-1
.75pt e.w Phil Mickleson 33-1
.65pt e.w Harris English 40-1
.4pt e.w Jim Furyk 66-1
.2pt e.w Kevin Streelman 150-1
10pts Matt Kuchar Top 20 5-4
6pts Jim Furyk Top 20 2-1
Running Total......+72.85points
R.O.I since start Jan....+30.4%
Interested in a few players in Puerto Rico, but only a few bookies have priced it up yet, so will post up my bets when struck.
But that's all hypothetical as I don't think he will start. One player who will be there, and there with a serious chance, is Matt Kuchar. Kuch has been his usual consistent self this season, denied a possible defence of his Matchplay title by an inspired Jordan Spieth. Spieth performed horribly in his next rd, but he was clinical on the greens against Kuchar, who didn't do much wrong in his defeat. Kuchar missed the cut at Riviera, but that venue holds no good memories for him, in contrast to this weeks track, where he has 3 top 10s in his last 4 visits. It is a slightly different layout this year, but I expect Kuchar to go very close to a deserved triumph. 35-1 with SJ certainly underestimated his chances. Indeed he was available at 40 on here. Ladbrokes went 5-4 on a top 20, something which should be closer to 1-2 imo,.....that didn't last long
Sergio Garcia also has to have every chance. He never really appeared in with a winning chance last week, but only finished 4 shots off the winner as it transpired. He will have been very happy with his 4 days work, and will fancy his chances of going 2 places better than last year. I cursed him from a height when he literally handed Ricky Fowler victory two weeks ago, but one positive to take from that is that Sergio is playing golf as a game now, not a highly pressurised business. This can only help someone who otherwise can be more emotional, and have more tantrums, than a pregnant woman!! 22-1 is definitely worth a bet.
Although course form is a big factor in backing these two, I contradict myself by next nominating Harris English, and hoping that because of the new layout, that he will be at much less of a disadvantage. I have backed him on a couple of occasions this year, and remain convinced he will be winning shortly. 40-1 underestimates his chances of doing it this week, and his late derailing of Rorys matchplay aspirations, confirms he is not one to shirk a challenge.
Phil Mickleson should not be 33-1 for anything!! Very price related this bet, as Phil has done nothing in recent weeks to warrant backing. But he can find form from nowhere, and at the inflated odds, I am more than prepared to take a chance on him producing it this week. Not long til Augusta, Big Phil will be hungry for a prominent showing.
Jim Furyk has gone along time between drinks, and may not be one to rely on in a back 9 tussle anymore, but he does come here in improved form, and has the course form to warrant backing. Produced a couple of good rounds in Dove Mountain, a week off coming into this is ideal, and I fancy him to be on the leaderboard come Sunday. Whether he can close it out is another thing, but I certainly expect him to repay top 20 support at 2-1.
Finally, one from left field is Kevin Streelman at 150-1. This week probably wont be as tough as last, but with the modifications, should still be a good challenge, and Streelman has a history of performing better on these more challenging layouts. Odds of near 40-1 seem perfectly acceptable for the place part of the bet.
Had been slightly interested in Nick Watney, but I don't particularly like him, and top price 70-1 wasn't enough to tempt me in.
.75pt e.w Matt Kuchar 35-1
1.1pt e.w Sergio Garcia 22-1
.75pt e.w Phil Mickleson 33-1
.65pt e.w Harris English 40-1
.4pt e.w Jim Furyk 66-1
.2pt e.w Kevin Streelman 150-1
10pts Matt Kuchar Top 20 5-4
6pts Jim Furyk Top 20 2-1
Running Total......+72.85points
R.O.I since start Jan....+30.4%
Interested in a few players in Puerto Rico, but only a few bookies have priced it up yet, so will post up my bets when struck.
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There looks to be plenty of mileage in the 5-1 on offer on Louis Oosthuizen in the top South African market.
Oost has had a good start to the year, with a win in his homeland, and some of the lowest scores of the week en route to the Matchplay quarter finals, suggesting he is in fine nick, and that his injury problems are behind him. Of the opposition, 4 of them can be more or less ruled out, as they are out of their depth to varying degrees, George Coetzee had a shocker last week so can be swerved, Ernie Els was pretty poor in making the Semis of the Accenture but was lucky enough to bump into some rivals playing worse. And Charl Schwartzel was very poor last week, not much better in the Matchplay, and even when 5th in Riviera his score had a serious gloss put on it by umpteen chip ins and hole outs. All in all, Louis looks a tremendous e.w bet at 5-1, hence getting money back if only top 3. 3.5pts e.w Louis Oosthuizen Top S. African 5-1 |
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Another mouth watering event in the States to look forward to this week, hopefully it will be as exciting as last week.
Jason Day 22/1 Seems to be in a good place mentally in the run up to Augusta and could contend again here if things fall right. Record in this event nothing to write home about but has the game that should suit this course. Phil Mickelson 28/1 Nothing much to add to what callit said above. Not playing great atm but has an excellent record @ Doral and can fin form from nowhere. Keegan Bradley 28/1 Bradley has played well here the last two years with two top 10 finishes and can improve on that this week. Showed last week he is in good form before a disappointing last round but still shows he is in good heart. Matt Kuchar 30/1 Callit again provided excellent analysis of his chance above and there is not much I can add to that. Has an excellent record @ Doral looks a very big price this week. Billy Horschel 100/1 Florida natives and residents have an excellent record in their home state swing and Horschel is massively overpriced considering this imo. Missed the cut last week but played well when going down to eventual champ Day @ the matchplay. |
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Ye going to be a great week ahead in the golf,love theses limited field with no cut,hopefully click a winner after never getting going last week,my two selections against the field are two selections aleady picked by the two posters already,going for Kuch and Mickelson,have a feeling Phil will have a good week,played solid here last year finishing tied 3rd,
Selections Mickelson e/w 28/1,missed the bigger price earlier this week, Matt Kuchar e/w 30/1, Also back Fowler 2/1 for a top twenty finish,coming back into form,so hopefully he has a good solid 4 days and dosent throw in the odd double bogey which he can do every so often,might throw a few quid on Tiger if he plays,havent made my mind up yet,best of luck this week lads, |
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Will have no great interest in Puerto Rico, and no tv, but a winner is a winner, so have gone with the following.
.75pt e.w David Hearn 35-1 .3pt e.w Tyrone van Aswagen 90-1 .5pt e.w Jerry Kelly 60-1 .5pt e.w Emilliano Grillo 50-1 All have been in good nick lately, in much better fields than they meet this week. If I had to pick the likeliest winner out of them it would be Hearn, but think Van Aswagen is the best value in the field. He showed some decent form last week in a much superior field, and will be eager to continue his improvement to extend his stay on the PGA Tour. An opening 66 in the Farmers Insurance and 67 to open last week, suggest he is starting to settle in. He may just find himself challenging for a breakthrough win on Sunday evening. |
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Boys,
Well done in the last few weeks on the golfing front. Any thoughts on a possible antepost bet for a Masters winner before one of your naps click in the run up to the event. |
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Catch Me, I have backed Zach Johnson e.w at 100s, but if I was forced to nominate someone at the prices now, it would be Jason Dufner. Currently 70 on here.
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CALLIT
really enjoy your golf previews managed to a bag a winner or two out of them. Just a question regarding your staking plan. You appear to bet each selection to win roughly 30 points regardless of the strength of the opinion for each golfer. In each tournament you may rate golfer A over golfer X they may be similar prices yet you stake the same on each I find that strange? Equally so there are tournaments you hold strong opinions on and others you regard as a lottery yet you stake equally on both. Please don't think for one moment I am being critical of you, the write ups are excellent |
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Shadder,
I use a variation of the Kelly Criterion staking plan. This involves putting on an amount on each selection that returns a certain percentage of my betting bank. It encourages discipline, and stops me from over betting on certain players/horse etc that I might have convinced myself I have a larger edge pricewise than I actually have. As my bank increases/decreases over time, the amount a 'point' is will follow. This means you are still winning the same percentage of your bank, and prevents, or at least helps against, going bust in a bad spell. I understand it may seem folly not to have more on someone I am particularly sweet on, and on the odd occasion I still will. But a professional gambler had been giving out to me for years, that I should have been making more than I was on the golf, as I was continuously over staking at random times, on certain players. When the edge in price I perceived there was, didnt correlate with the extra I was putting on him. Though finding plenty of winners, I wasn't always deriving due benefit. For example, a couple of years ago, I may have had a huge portion of my betting bank on Kuchar for top 20 this week, and forfeited any potential bets on other players that I also think are overpriced in outright or other markets. Kuch may well, and I think will, collect on this bet, but long term you are not doing yourself any favours with this approach. Kuchar finishing 21st, and English winning unbacked, would not have made me happy!! I may say I have not much interest in certain events. I don't! But I mean this from a viewing or entertainment point of view. I will have a lot more interest in the better events, and fields like the Puerto Rico, wouldn't exactly get the juices flowing. But in saying this, I think the 90s on Van Aswegen is on of the bets of the week. |
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Hi Cal, try keep your golf betting bank separate to any other sports betting. I don`t know how you study your horse racing, but for me it takes up 12-14hrs a day to keep up with everything. If your studying golf, then watching it 4 nights a week that should be your only sports punting for decent money.
I use to think I could do Golf, Soccer, and H.Racing, but found out the hard way and dropped two of them and now just do H.Racing only. |
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I generally only bet for decent money on top class racing these days Easy, Cheltenham, Aintree, Ascot etc. I dont have the time or desire to be studying the more mundane week to week stuff. I let Declan Meagher do the hard work there!! Granted i will have a few other wagers from time to time.
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interesting thoughts cal good luck
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I generally only bet for decent money on top class racing these days Easy
That should read,......Only bet on my own opinion for decent money on top class racing these days... I have no problem investing my faith in Declans judgement on a day to day basis. As can be seen by his updated profit figures on his site. For those that dont have the time to be studying Cheltenham in detail next week, but would still like to hold every chance on coming out on top for the week, he is doing a special Cheltenham Tips service, which only costs €18 for the service. |
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At the risk of being ridiculed by wildman
 I think you have pinpointed a vital area in the road to long term profitability with your betting.Risk management and staking plans have major benefits in that they prevent making rash decisions when behind or equally important long term frittering away profits when in front.I learnt my lesson many moons ago when I fancied a horse big time..went down to the bookies intent on having my biggest ever bet...was there early and tried to get a double or two running on to my fancy and ended up broke and watching him romp home.I set aside a betting bank,have a staking plan and both a stop loss and stop profit figure.I find it helps my decision making and prevents the emotional downs associated with big losing days. I don't back golf anymore because of time constraints but I follow your previews.I would have thought you would vary what you are backing your fancies to win but at the end of they day its whatever works for you. |
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Listen Guy`s don`t get wrapped up with Chel, there is only a few races u can get involved with.
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Tiger has confirmed he is playing this week after several days treatment for back spasms,hasn,t hit a shot since Sunday.
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Ive just backed Tiger for small money pa lapsy 14/1 e/w,couldnt but help myself ha,
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Haven,t done him for a while Huddy,s but think it would be just like him to pop up this week,that his price and record here(not much good at Torrey Pines i know). Not sure there is a lot of consistency with the top players at the moment unlike Stenson and Scott late last year. Thought Snedeker was very big at 150/1 as well though not playing too well last few tournies.
Presume you did him in Paddies Huddy,s,same as myself, couldn,t resist throwing him in with Guitar Pete(triumph), Foxrock (4m), and Faugheen (neptune) as well, 5 figure payout for a $2 yankee know you like myself doing a small tilt at a windmill for a big one the odd time. Should be a good tournament, GL all. |
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Ye Pa Lapsy done him in Powers just insurance if he pulls out,they might refund the bet,best of luck with the yankee,nothing like a small investment for a big return alright,
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Didn't see any of the golf tonight, but Trump must have toughened things up. Tough scoring, and from what I seen of Shot Tracker, it was a sea of blue and red!!
Should be top quality entertainment come Sunday. The right players seem to be at or around the top of the leaderboard early doors. Disappointed with Van Aswegens finish earlier. Had him backed e.w for first rd leader. Was 6 under, and tied top through 12, with two par 5s to come. The last 6 holes didn't go to plan!! |
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Toughened up is right,loads of bunkers and a few nearly island greens,that and the wind was really blowing before suspension.
Forecast is windy again today from what i can see. Tiger playing like a lemon, not finding fairways and very few real birdie opportunities,hope i,m wrong and he plays better for the remainder of the tournament but is starting to look as if he will never again be near the player he once was. Rory played well with a couple of silly errors once again,to be fair not alone there. Very possible a similar tournament to last week,s, big swings maybe again on the weekend and wouldn,t take too short on anyone. |
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done small e/w doubles earlier.
Reed 28/1 and Dustin 12/1, permed with Bello couldn't help myself 22/1 and Jim Herman 40/1 in the Puerto rico open, Going to be some golf today with the weather, |
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I reckon Crazy Golf in Salthill in the height of the wind and floods was more manageable than this. Mental!!
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They need to quicken the green's up for the weekend
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Looks like the perfect conditions for GMac (god I hate that nickname) to dog it out and win
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Yeah G Mac should be suited by conditions, and could grind his way to another big success. But the market seems to have more than factored this in.
Tiger at 66s and Phil at 100s seem two must bets to me as it stands. Tiger had one of the better rounds yesterday, and with his long game looking like its starting to click, its not hard to see him mounting a charge from an early tee time today. Phil had a nightmare start yesterday, but got things under control, notably when the wind died a bit, to give himself a fighting chance. The wind is not forecast as strong today, and Phil will be able to go flag hunting in a bid to get right back into this. Last weeks kamikaze golf is still fresh in the memory, and I don't think any of the leaders are going to run away with this. Most have the Timeform squiggle beside them, and I doubt the lead will be any better than -3 by end of play tonight, and might not stray from that by Sundays close. Can Tiger or Phil hit that total? Damn right they can, and if they do mount a charge, that will crank up the pressure even more on what will more than likely be already jittery leaders. And you don't have to pay much to find out!! |
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Brandt and Jason (40's) should keep me interested on Sunday night.
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Cracking round from the Tiger tonight. Apart from Patrick Reed, the rest of the lesders stalled, so all to play for tomorrow.
Great finish from Phil too. If he could master them opening holes, he still has a shout. Disappointed in Kuchars finish, will be disgusted if he doesnt at least bag the top 20. Could be serious viewing tomorrow. Still think Tiger and Phil could be the last men standing. |
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Hope you got plenty on Tuger at 66's , callit , lots of profit there now in laying back at 4/1 now . Of those on the top of the leaderboard , Tiger looks the most likely to keep it lit tomorrow .
Jason Day screwed me up a bit as he pulled out and he represented 4% of the lay . Have laid all but 5 of the field though , the weather on Friday brought plenty of the no hopers back into the mix . Good viewing . |