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No surprise really. Maybe surprising its been made public, but Willie and Ruby will decide what goes where, and Annie Power wont be running in a CH or the Mares Hurdle. In a poorer year, and with no Hurricane, or maybe even with just no Hurricane, I have no doubt she be in the CH, but not as things stand.
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Willie Mullins trains all his horses as if they were his own,he has done this from the start,if you don't like it he shows you the door.
For years he resisted training for McManus,he finally got in by buying a resident and had to agree to Willie calling the shots. |
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Ruby please please please, if HF gets beat in the champion I dont want to see Annie come sailing by, grow a pair Ricci.
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O'Leary insisted on Make your Mark taking on Boston Bob in a novice hurdle at Leopardstown prior to Cheltenham 2 years ago.
Ruby is extremely persuasive and manipulative in these situations. 8/13 with the German crowd is generous to be top trainer,should be other side of 1/2. |
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Correct but he got punished for it and will never do it again.
Gigginstown have no special rate or special terms like they have with all their other stables. |
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Yes that's true Wildman but other trainers have better terms on the percentage of prize money.I would also imagine that O'leary has over ruled on the festival bumper a couple of years ago also.
I presume that you will be laying the Fly for the full bank?? Some posters on here don't seem to understand how important the ground is to him and throw last year back at me even though I stipulated it at least 5 times that he was only a lay on good ground (I also do realise that he has champion hurdle winning form on good ground).Anyone that thought he was a lay on good ground last year in fact should feel vindicated by the race,when he was outpaced and only for they watered and then got rain on top of it would have been beaten. I don't believe it is possible to draw parallels with any of his races this year with the test he will face in the champion,it will not be a soft ground 3 furlong sprint. |
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If we get genuinely good ground (which is a worry with the recent watering policy)he's surely a lay at 5/2 or less on the day.
It's credit to him that he has won 2 champions despite of the track clearly not suiting him. |
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No I laid him the first year he won.
I don't think he will win but am not a layer,I have the Champion Hurdle marked down for a home win. |
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Very rarely genuinely good on opening day dj. The only way it can really stray from the desired good-soft, is if like last year they get rain on top of the watering late on. Weather conditions on early March wont allow it to suddenly dry to good, but rain can make it suddenly go to soft. They take the pre emptive strike against conditions being too fast to open with, and if it ends up soft, so be it.
I too was against Hurricane in the lead up to last years festival, and also believed Champagne Fever to be a stayer and had backed him NRNB for the A Bartlett, but ground conditions on the day led me to backing both. Ground as you say was a huge factor in Hurricanes win. On good Rock on Ruby would surely have won. Indeed had he gone a stride slower throughout he may also have won. I have long thought TNO to be the one to beat this year, and actually think Our Conor may give him most to do. |
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callitasucit
callitasucit 03 Feb 14 10:45 Joined: 27 Sep 11 | Topic/replies: 1,460 | Blogger: callitasucit's blog Very rarely genuinely good on opening day dj. The only way it can really stray from the desired good-soft, is if like last year they get rain on top of the watering late on. Weather conditions on early March wont allow it to suddenly dry to good cobblers |
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What price its good ground on day one SITC? No chance. The only way its not artificially good-soft, is if it naturally goes softer.
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day one 2012
GOING: (Old course) Chase & Hurdle courses - GOOD (Good to soft in places; watered; 7.3); Cross-country course - GOOD TO FIRM. Weather conditions: Mostly bright. |
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day one 2011
GOING: Chase & Hurdle courses - GOOD (Good to soft in places); Cross Country course - GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; Chase and Hurdle 7.7, Cross country 8.8). Weather conditions: Fine. |
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Without watering one could very easily have good even good to firm.
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On both dates above Good-Soft was the official description prior to racing. Betfair settled their market on this description. Go back through the last ten years, I used the word 'rarely', which allows for the exceptions, but it is the exception rather than the rule. In 2011, I would very much doubt it was 'proper good ground' when Al Ferof stayed on past speed sorts like Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre, and when Fininas Rainbow didnt get home in the Arkle. Granted they went very quick up front in both races, which contributed hugely to their finishing efforts.
There is far more chance of soft ground, than good ground. No doubt. They don't want good ground to start with, and can prevent it, They can do f*ck all to stop it getting soft. |