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21 Jan 14
15:12
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
Really looking forward to this week, not only because of the return of the Tiger, but there also seems some really decent bets to be had.
Starting with Tiger, he is the closest thing we are going to get to a certainty in the golfing world this year. He has won on 8 of his last 14 visits to Torrey Pines, and one of them in 2011 can be eliminated due to swing changes, and his game being in generally bad shape. This is not the case now. Its not a major, so he doesn't have that pressure this week, and in all honesty he hasn't much to beat. The reality is, he should be a lot closer to the even money mark.
Having won 5 times last year, he is back to very near his supreme best, and with this being a huge year for him, one which could define his legacy and whether he beats That record, he will be itching to kick it off in the best possible way.
Phil is second fav, but in my opinion shouldn't be. He has a gruelling 4 rounds and journey from Dubai to overcome, and in any case I much rather back Phil at inflated odds off a poor showing, than trust him at short odds to replicate what he done the previous week.
The rest of my outright bets are going to be in the without Tiger market.
Brandt Snedeker at 18-1 with Bet365, jumped off the page. Only best price 22s with Tiger in the field, I would much prefer the 18s. Sneds record round here is second only to Tigers, and though slightly disappointing last week, in hindsight that event was a touch of a lottery. The cream not really being able to show their superiority on such simple tracks. Sned will surely have had this as his main aim for the start of the year, he wont be far away.
I am also keeping the faith with Billy Horschel. If he didn't spend more time in the water, than on the fairways on the first day last week, he would have been right in the thick of things. He hasn't shown much of an aptitude for this track yet, but he is such an improved player now, that I expect him to be much more prominent this week. He had a confidence boosting weekend in the Humana, and looks ready to strike.
Last in is Mark Leishman. In my opinion, a touch of a bottler, but I wont mind him finishing second to Tiger!! In consistent form of late, he has decent track form, and just looks to have much more chance than plenty around him in the market.
Horscel and Leishman at 9-4 top 20 with Ladbrokes looked great bets.
10pts win Tiger Woods 11-4
1.4pts e.w Snedeker (w/o Tiger) 18-1
0.6pts e.w Horschel (w/o Tiger) 40-1
0.6pts e.w Leishman (w/o Tiger) 40-1
3.5pts Horschel Top 20 9-4
3.5pts Leishman Top 20 9-4
In Qatar, my main bet is another of last weeks selections, Sergio Garcia. I assume the fact that he is lining up means he is fully recovered from the shoulder injury, which derailed any potential challenge in Abu Dhabi. His play over the weekend suggested the problem was rectified. Indeed he would have been a serious challenger to the main protagonists, if Thursdays scores, when he was in obvious discomfort, were not counted. He is still in superb form, and will be very hard to beat this week.
Peter Hanson also showed himself to be in fine fettle last week. Well, everywhere apart from the greens. His ball striking was superb, and given it was first outing for 9 weeks, his poor display with the flat stick can be forgiven. That he finished 10th is testament to how well he played tee to green. 25-1 seems more than fair, and the 11-10 for top 20 seems a gift. They wont be able to kick him out of that imo.
My two other selections are rather similar, in that I would be surprised if either won, but equally surprised if they weren't on the premises come Sunday.
Ricardo Gonzalez, showed his well being last week, a poor Saturday putting paid to his aspirations of winning. But playing with the huge crowd attracting McIlroy would not have helped here. Hopefully he can handle himself better if in the heat of battle this wk. I have backed him e.w and top 20. He has been top 20 in 7 of his last 10 trips here, making 4-1 look very good indeed.
David Howell, likewise has excellent form figures around here, and in the desert in general. These are home games for Howell now, and 125-1 e.w, and 5-1 top 20 looked must bets. He would have rewarded top 20 support in 5 of his 10 visits here, only just missing out on 2 other occasions. He comes here this year in great spirits, having been a winner only 4 months ago.
What I consider the best bet of the week, is Howell at 20-1 e.w to be top Englishman. This looks outstanding value. A lot of dead wood here, and with probably only 9 or 10 making the cut, I would be very surprised if the place part at least didn't yield a dividend. This is a long track, and Howell is not the biggest of hitters, but the total yardage is slightly deceptive. Only one of the par 5s are frequently reachable, so Howell will be at no disadvantage here. The huge yardage of the 4 par 5s, accounts for a lot of this courses length.
2.5pts e.w Sergio Garcia 8-1
1pt e.w Peter Hanson 25-1
.25pt e.w Gonzalez 125-1
.25pt e.w Howell 125-1
1.2pt e.w Howell Top Englishman 20-1
3pts Howell Top 20 5-1
3pts Gonzalez 4-1
Running Total....+31.5pts
Starting with Tiger, he is the closest thing we are going to get to a certainty in the golfing world this year. He has won on 8 of his last 14 visits to Torrey Pines, and one of them in 2011 can be eliminated due to swing changes, and his game being in generally bad shape. This is not the case now. Its not a major, so he doesn't have that pressure this week, and in all honesty he hasn't much to beat. The reality is, he should be a lot closer to the even money mark.
Having won 5 times last year, he is back to very near his supreme best, and with this being a huge year for him, one which could define his legacy and whether he beats That record, he will be itching to kick it off in the best possible way.
Phil is second fav, but in my opinion shouldn't be. He has a gruelling 4 rounds and journey from Dubai to overcome, and in any case I much rather back Phil at inflated odds off a poor showing, than trust him at short odds to replicate what he done the previous week.
The rest of my outright bets are going to be in the without Tiger market.
Brandt Snedeker at 18-1 with Bet365, jumped off the page. Only best price 22s with Tiger in the field, I would much prefer the 18s. Sneds record round here is second only to Tigers, and though slightly disappointing last week, in hindsight that event was a touch of a lottery. The cream not really being able to show their superiority on such simple tracks. Sned will surely have had this as his main aim for the start of the year, he wont be far away.
I am also keeping the faith with Billy Horschel. If he didn't spend more time in the water, than on the fairways on the first day last week, he would have been right in the thick of things. He hasn't shown much of an aptitude for this track yet, but he is such an improved player now, that I expect him to be much more prominent this week. He had a confidence boosting weekend in the Humana, and looks ready to strike.
Last in is Mark Leishman. In my opinion, a touch of a bottler, but I wont mind him finishing second to Tiger!! In consistent form of late, he has decent track form, and just looks to have much more chance than plenty around him in the market.
Horscel and Leishman at 9-4 top 20 with Ladbrokes looked great bets.
10pts win Tiger Woods 11-4
1.4pts e.w Snedeker (w/o Tiger) 18-1
0.6pts e.w Horschel (w/o Tiger) 40-1
0.6pts e.w Leishman (w/o Tiger) 40-1
3.5pts Horschel Top 20 9-4
3.5pts Leishman Top 20 9-4
In Qatar, my main bet is another of last weeks selections, Sergio Garcia. I assume the fact that he is lining up means he is fully recovered from the shoulder injury, which derailed any potential challenge in Abu Dhabi. His play over the weekend suggested the problem was rectified. Indeed he would have been a serious challenger to the main protagonists, if Thursdays scores, when he was in obvious discomfort, were not counted. He is still in superb form, and will be very hard to beat this week.
Peter Hanson also showed himself to be in fine fettle last week. Well, everywhere apart from the greens. His ball striking was superb, and given it was first outing for 9 weeks, his poor display with the flat stick can be forgiven. That he finished 10th is testament to how well he played tee to green. 25-1 seems more than fair, and the 11-10 for top 20 seems a gift. They wont be able to kick him out of that imo.
My two other selections are rather similar, in that I would be surprised if either won, but equally surprised if they weren't on the premises come Sunday.
Ricardo Gonzalez, showed his well being last week, a poor Saturday putting paid to his aspirations of winning. But playing with the huge crowd attracting McIlroy would not have helped here. Hopefully he can handle himself better if in the heat of battle this wk. I have backed him e.w and top 20. He has been top 20 in 7 of his last 10 trips here, making 4-1 look very good indeed.
David Howell, likewise has excellent form figures around here, and in the desert in general. These are home games for Howell now, and 125-1 e.w, and 5-1 top 20 looked must bets. He would have rewarded top 20 support in 5 of his 10 visits here, only just missing out on 2 other occasions. He comes here this year in great spirits, having been a winner only 4 months ago.
What I consider the best bet of the week, is Howell at 20-1 e.w to be top Englishman. This looks outstanding value. A lot of dead wood here, and with probably only 9 or 10 making the cut, I would be very surprised if the place part at least didn't yield a dividend. This is a long track, and Howell is not the biggest of hitters, but the total yardage is slightly deceptive. Only one of the par 5s are frequently reachable, so Howell will be at no disadvantage here. The huge yardage of the 4 par 5s, accounts for a lot of this courses length.
2.5pts e.w Sergio Garcia 8-1
1pt e.w Peter Hanson 25-1
.25pt e.w Gonzalez 125-1
.25pt e.w Howell 125-1
1.2pt e.w Howell Top Englishman 20-1
3pts Howell Top 20 5-1
3pts Gonzalez 4-1
Running Total....+31.5pts
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Great write up as always,we seem to have picked a few of the same this week hopefully we get a good run for our money,well im with you with Tiger aswell too think I got 8/1 on him last year and this year got 5/2,Also with you with Snead betting w/o Tiger e/w 16/1,ive done Da Points top 20 7/2 with powers terrible price seen as tho I could of got 7/1 with betpack,also done Brendan De Jonge top 20 at 11/4,De Jonge is a top 20 machine so think this is a cracking bet,done the the two of them in cross doubles with Gonzalez top 20 in Europe 7/2,and also Howell 9/2 in the top 20,wont be doing theses bets with powers anymore they seem to be the worse price on theses bets,Done Bello e/w again this week 33/1 loves this track and will be in good form after last weeks performance,also done him in a e/w double with Tiger,33/1 and 5/2,also done Thomas Bjorn 18/1 outright a player who has been playing great the last few weeks,last bets were Bello 1st round leader 40/1 and Gonzalez 1st round leader 80/1,both out early in the morning so hopefully they get of to a flyer,best of luck this week lads,Come on Tiger lets start the year of on a winning one,
Only two bets for me this week both in America.
I fully agree with ye're comments re woods. He should be an odds on shot given his record at the course so I took 3.7 on here which is a cracking price imo.
Snedeker also has an excellent record at the course although nothing like that of Tiger's. I was planning to take the 20/1 on offer in the outright market but having seen callit mention his price in the without woods betting, I took 16/1 in that market instead.
Two excellent tournaments to look forward to this week, best of luck to anyone having a bet.
I fully agree with ye're comments re woods. He should be an odds on shot given his record at the course so I took 3.7 on here which is a cracking price imo.
Snedeker also has an excellent record at the course although nothing like that of Tiger's. I was planning to take the 20/1 on offer in the outright market but having seen callit mention his price in the without woods betting, I took 16/1 in that market instead.
Two excellent tournaments to look forward to this week, best of luck to anyone having a bet.
Never included, 5pts on Hanson at 11-10 on the list.
Was going to go with Bello myself Huddys, but couldn't bring myself to back him at 33s, having been on at 125s in similar field last week. Prob sh&t in now!! Best of luck everyone. Great weekend of sport in prospect. Be super to see Fed win another big one in Oz.
Was going to go with Bello myself Huddys, but couldn't bring myself to back him at 33s, having been on at 125s in similar field last week. Prob sh&t in now!! Best of luck everyone. Great weekend of sport in prospect. Be super to see Fed win another big one in Oz.
Granted Tigers record is super but 5/2 over 72 holes is shocking, so sorry to be the killjoy but I aint on the Tiger bandwagon.
As has already been said above Sneds has a great record around here and his 2nd start of the year he should be ready to go hopefully.
Not deserting Billy Haas this week, just missed the place money with him in the Humana and has a heap of top 10's at Torrey over the this past 7 or 8 years, Billy is a trier, which I like.
B Snedeker 23's W&PL
B Haas 30's W&PL
Ba Humbug!
As has already been said above Sneds has a great record around here and his 2nd start of the year he should be ready to go hopefully.
Not deserting Billy Haas this week, just missed the place money with him in the Humana and has a heap of top 10's at Torrey over the this past 7 or 8 years, Billy is a trier, which I like.
B Snedeker 23's W&PL
B Haas 30's W&PL
Ba Humbug!
Great round by Bello today,hopefully he has a good solid 3rd round in the morning,
The 3rd round has been his problem round of late. He has to have gained confidence from the way he finished last week though. Now I wish I was on
Topped up on Tiger at 9-2. Backed Grace at 18s in Qatar. Wouldn't have much faith in tomorrows final pairing.
Cabera-Bello being 3 clear had a chance of putting a bit of distance between the field but a poor finish has it wide open for tomorrow.
Big difference in scoring between North and South courses here,suppose ideally looking for North course players tonight though think myself that is well priced in. A few players thought were overpriced playing the harder one,Jim Herman-6 (250,s), Bowditch (640,s)
Immelman(370,s) Justin Thomas(1000) H Frazer(670+) all at -4. Big Phil -3 is 18,s with the harder course to play. None of the above are "big Phils" but hoping for a half decent round from some of them. GL with your bets.
Big difference in scoring between North and South courses here,suppose ideally looking for North course players tonight though think myself that is well priced in. A few players thought were overpriced playing the harder one,Jim Herman-6 (250,s), Bowditch (640,s)
Immelman(370,s) Justin Thomas(1000) H Frazer(670+) all at -4. Big Phil -3 is 18,s with the harder course to play. None of the above are "big Phils" but hoping for a half decent round from some of them. GL with your bets.
Could be carnage in Qatar in the morning. Lot of bottlers at the top of the board. Could be a case of 'After You Sir'. Personally hoping Serg or Grace can belt out of traps.
Tiger has been awful. Spieth was superb. Thought Leishman should have been a few shots better. Hopefully himself and Billy can be in challenging range come Sunday.
Tiger has been awful. Spieth was superb. Thought Leishman should have been a few shots better. Hopefully himself and Billy can be in challenging range come Sunday.
Ye your bang on with Europe anyone of about 15 could win,just hope Bello falls over the line,blew a great chance yesterday to kick on,Tiger was terrible last night,best of luck with your selections in America call,
I watched a little of it last night and what stood out was , tiger is starting to look old , and does not seem to have the same mobility as yesteryear , has father time finally come a calling... ?
Probably just riding like a good thing at Christmas and never got in a bit of practise!!
Serg missed 6 footer, for a probable win, at the 18th. Pup
DA Points looks good bet at 2-1 in todays 3 ball.
Had a few too many last night, and got stuck into Jordan Spieth at 4-1 with a couple to play. Pretty confident himself or Leishman can close it out. Anyone that I would be really frightened of are a good few shots back. I don't rate Woodlands bottle. Horschel had a mare yesterday, but still has a shot at top 20 with a decent round today.
Most of what I collected on Sergio has been given back over the weekends racing, so be nice to finish off on a high note!!
Most of what I collected on Sergio has been given back over the weekends racing, so be nice to finish off on a high note!!
Callit , Tiger defo on the way out , playing like an old man ...
Did you back him as well Kavvie , as an aside had a look at Our Conor today , I'd say Dessie left a little to work on ..Cracking e/w bet you have there mate...
Ah, that a knee jerk statement WR. He was in fine fettle only a couple of months ago. I wonder what might have happened had his approach to the 18th(his 9th), landed within eagle range rather than in the pond, in yesterdays round? He seemed to lose interest after that.
Of course father time catches up with everyone, and his body has taken more punishment than most, but lets see what the next few weeks bring.
But whatever about Tiger moving over just yet, the heir to his throne is coming along very well. I know Spieth got very agitated early in yesterdays round, but that is just down to his incredible will to succeed. Who does that remind you of??!!
No worries yet Kav, maybe Bet365 might take that bet now!!
I would think Dessie has had one day in mind, and one day only, since the beginning of the season. Intriguing race in prospect. Just as well, because there is not much else standing out as box office at this years festival. Maybe no Sprinter, GC running out of contenders, Ryanair with no Simonsig, Flemenstar or Cue Card. A WH with Big Bucks on the wane. A useless Arkle. A Triumph deprived of its one potential star. Maybe I am being pessimistic, but I have missed the last 3 festivals and it got pretty sore knowing I wasn't going at this stage each year. This year im not too bothered. Though may still go over Gold Cup day.
Of course father time catches up with everyone, and his body has taken more punishment than most, but lets see what the next few weeks bring.
But whatever about Tiger moving over just yet, the heir to his throne is coming along very well. I know Spieth got very agitated early in yesterdays round, but that is just down to his incredible will to succeed. Who does that remind you of??!!
No worries yet Kav, maybe Bet365 might take that bet now!!
I would think Dessie has had one day in mind, and one day only, since the beginning of the season. Intriguing race in prospect. Just as well, because there is not much else standing out as box office at this years festival. Maybe no Sprinter, GC running out of contenders, Ryanair with no Simonsig, Flemenstar or Cue Card. A WH with Big Bucks on the wane. A useless Arkle. A Triumph deprived of its one potential star. Maybe I am being pessimistic, but I have missed the last 3 festivals and it got pretty sore knowing I wasn't going at this stage each year. This year im not too bothered. Though may still go over Gold Cup day.
Maybe he forgot to take his medicine 
...I must admit I'm very taken with Speith , a birdie machine when in form , its a long time since i'd seen a round like he produced the other night i'm including tiger in that....
...I must admit I'm very taken with Speith , a birdie machine when in form , its a long time since i'd seen a round like he produced the other night i'm including tiger in that....
Both my selections have missed the cut so am laying woodland to make it a level week.
Don't have a clue who will win it but I would be looking @ some of the players on -4 or -5 rather than the current leaders.
Should be a good nights golf.
Don't have a clue who will win it but I would be looking @ some of the players on -4 or -5 rather than the current leaders.
Should be a good nights golf.
Added COLSAERTS 26/1 and Romero 55/1 TO MY TEAM FOR TONIGHT FOR SMALL MONEY
Would Woodland ever **** off making them par saves!!
If Leishman made a quarter of the putts that Woodland has, he be out of sight. Very annoying to watch. Bottling pup.
-9 looks the number,whether 1 or 2, be a 6 way playoff probably with the -8.
I know I mentioned in opening post that I had Leishman chalked down as a bottler, so shouldn't be surprised, or shouldn't complain. But how the **** he didn't win that today, I will never know. Didn't make a putt over 4ft all round. Stallings never led until his final shot. Slightly sick!!
Equally frustrated with how De Laet played this week.
Every time he got himself into a position he missed an easy putt or made a silly mistake.
Stallings winning was not the best thing either. He can hit form from nowhere and I had him shortlisted for Phoenix next week, but he is of no interest now.
Opened up next week by taking some Quiros with VC earlier for Dubai. He was excellent this week from tee to green but putted dreadfully. Greens in Dubai are much more straightforward and their 80/1 was very big for a player that was widely tipped this week at 40/1.
Every time he got himself into a position he missed an easy putt or made a silly mistake.
Stallings winning was not the best thing either. He can hit form from nowhere and I had him shortlisted for Phoenix next week, but he is of no interest now.
Opened up next week by taking some Quiros with VC earlier for Dubai. He was excellent this week from tee to green but putted dreadfully. Greens in Dubai are much more straightforward and their 80/1 was very big for a player that was widely tipped this week at 40/1.
Yeah, plenty got near the lead, and sh1t themselves. It was only pot luck for Stallings that he landed in front on the line. Could have been a very good week. Serg winning, then Hanson a shot out of top 20, Leishman beaten by a shot, and Horschel a shot out of top 20 also. He too didn't make a putt of note all weekend.
Very little strength in depth in the desert this wk.
Very little strength in depth in the desert this wk.
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