Irish Sports
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14 Jan 14
21:35
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
The Humana looks a wide open event, one which uses 3 courses, all of which place a premium on low scoring, and so maybe giving more of a chance to a lesser light who can get lucky with the putter.
One player who rarely needs luck with the flat stick is Brandt Snedeker. At one stage last season, he looked close to the best player on the planet, and was shaping up to start close to this sort of price for a major. Unfortunately injury intervened, and basically curtailed his season early Autumn. An 8 week break seemed to have done him the world of good when reappearing in the Champions event in Honolulu. He wouldn't have expected much more than to blow the cobwebs away, but finished a very respectable 11th, and looked close to his deadly best on the greens. He looks a good place to start this week, with Powers going 18-1 and 6 places.
Billy Horschel is overpriced. He is very close to breaking into the games elite, and should not be a similar price to Bill Haas, a flattering Ricky Fowler, a bottling Charles Howell, or even Gary Woodland. Again he has the advantage of a recent outing under his belt, where he never really threatened, but showed enough to suggest his time is not far off. 28-1(or30s with 888 or on here), looks well worth taking.
Robert Garrigus was someone I expected to do a lot better last year. He seemed more confident, and a lot fitter. Maybe in hindsight he spent too much time concentrating on his fitness, and not enough on his game. He has a good record around here, and this type of event could be the time to catch him. At 60-1, I am certainly not leaving him out this week.
Sang Moon Bae looked sure to take a hand in proceedings last week, but ended up fading out of contention. He did show he was in good form though, and also that he was putting very well, which will be crucial this week. With two solid performances already in this event the last two years, he should not be the price he is. An insult.
Justin Leonard is my last port of call, but maybe my biggest fancy, of a sort. Justin disappeared into the wilderness for a few years, but even then he would show up in the odd tournament where he had 'previous'. He has plenty of that here. And he is now back in much more consistent form, and appearing on more leaderboards. As such I expect him to be prominent this week, and the 7-1 Ladbrokes went on top 20, had to be taken. I since topped up on the 6s with BVictor, which is still a cracking price on someone who has been top 20 in 5 of his last 12 appearances here, and is in better form than the last couple of years. I would make him about 5-2/11-4.
The 5-4 on Horschel top 20 is also worth taking.
1.4pts e.w Snedeker 18-1(6 places)
.85pt e.w Billy Horschel 28-1
.4pt e.w Robert Garrigus 60-1
.3pt e.w Sang Moon Bae 125-1
3pt Justin Leonard Top 20 (average 6.7-1)
6pt Billy Horschel Top 20 5-4
In Abu Dhabi, it should boil down to the cream.
I think its easy enough to rule out Phil, Kaymer doesn't win anymore, and I just feel Stenson could be a little over golfed at the moment, and flying home to Sweden last night for an awards ceremony could leave him a little extra jaded.
Rory McIlroy has had an eventful time himself, but at the end of the year he looked like the Rory of old, and ready to get back to near the top of the world rankings this season. He has a superb record here, all that is missing is the win, and I would not be at all surprised if he rectified that this week. A cracking e.w bet at 13-2. Powers went 6 places, but only 6-1. Far more chance of him winning than finishing 6th. (I hope!!)
Sergio Garcia at 10-1 also has to be supported. He looked a different character at the end of the year, with the new girlfriend on the bag. She hopefully has taken the petulant pr*ck out of him, and if so, he could be in for a massive year. He is driving it superbly, will love it around here in that from, and the putts have been dropping.
A couple from outfield woth backing may be Pod Harrington and Rafa Cabrera Bello. Pod is probably not huge value, but after his good showing last week, and his respectable course form, I am going to give him a reprieve this week.
Cab Bello has seen the top of a lot of leaderboards lately, but hasn't converted them into Sunday opportunities, but he looks worth a bet on a course he has played well on before, at a time of year when others may not be at their very best.
I wouldn't put anyone off a speculative few quid on David Howell either, I may indeed end up backing him myself.
3pt e.w Rory McIlroy 13-2
2.2pt e.w Sergio Garcia 10-1
.4pt e.w Pod 66-1
.25pt e.w Cabrera Bello 125-1
GL all.
One player who rarely needs luck with the flat stick is Brandt Snedeker. At one stage last season, he looked close to the best player on the planet, and was shaping up to start close to this sort of price for a major. Unfortunately injury intervened, and basically curtailed his season early Autumn. An 8 week break seemed to have done him the world of good when reappearing in the Champions event in Honolulu. He wouldn't have expected much more than to blow the cobwebs away, but finished a very respectable 11th, and looked close to his deadly best on the greens. He looks a good place to start this week, with Powers going 18-1 and 6 places.
Billy Horschel is overpriced. He is very close to breaking into the games elite, and should not be a similar price to Bill Haas, a flattering Ricky Fowler, a bottling Charles Howell, or even Gary Woodland. Again he has the advantage of a recent outing under his belt, where he never really threatened, but showed enough to suggest his time is not far off. 28-1(or30s with 888 or on here), looks well worth taking.
Robert Garrigus was someone I expected to do a lot better last year. He seemed more confident, and a lot fitter. Maybe in hindsight he spent too much time concentrating on his fitness, and not enough on his game. He has a good record around here, and this type of event could be the time to catch him. At 60-1, I am certainly not leaving him out this week.
Sang Moon Bae looked sure to take a hand in proceedings last week, but ended up fading out of contention. He did show he was in good form though, and also that he was putting very well, which will be crucial this week. With two solid performances already in this event the last two years, he should not be the price he is. An insult.
Justin Leonard is my last port of call, but maybe my biggest fancy, of a sort. Justin disappeared into the wilderness for a few years, but even then he would show up in the odd tournament where he had 'previous'. He has plenty of that here. And he is now back in much more consistent form, and appearing on more leaderboards. As such I expect him to be prominent this week, and the 7-1 Ladbrokes went on top 20, had to be taken. I since topped up on the 6s with BVictor, which is still a cracking price on someone who has been top 20 in 5 of his last 12 appearances here, and is in better form than the last couple of years. I would make him about 5-2/11-4.
The 5-4 on Horschel top 20 is also worth taking.
1.4pts e.w Snedeker 18-1(6 places)
.85pt e.w Billy Horschel 28-1
.4pt e.w Robert Garrigus 60-1
.3pt e.w Sang Moon Bae 125-1
3pt Justin Leonard Top 20 (average 6.7-1)
6pt Billy Horschel Top 20 5-4
In Abu Dhabi, it should boil down to the cream.
I think its easy enough to rule out Phil, Kaymer doesn't win anymore, and I just feel Stenson could be a little over golfed at the moment, and flying home to Sweden last night for an awards ceremony could leave him a little extra jaded.
Rory McIlroy has had an eventful time himself, but at the end of the year he looked like the Rory of old, and ready to get back to near the top of the world rankings this season. He has a superb record here, all that is missing is the win, and I would not be at all surprised if he rectified that this week. A cracking e.w bet at 13-2. Powers went 6 places, but only 6-1. Far more chance of him winning than finishing 6th. (I hope!!)
Sergio Garcia at 10-1 also has to be supported. He looked a different character at the end of the year, with the new girlfriend on the bag. She hopefully has taken the petulant pr*ck out of him, and if so, he could be in for a massive year. He is driving it superbly, will love it around here in that from, and the putts have been dropping.
A couple from outfield woth backing may be Pod Harrington and Rafa Cabrera Bello. Pod is probably not huge value, but after his good showing last week, and his respectable course form, I am going to give him a reprieve this week.
Cab Bello has seen the top of a lot of leaderboards lately, but hasn't converted them into Sunday opportunities, but he looks worth a bet on a course he has played well on before, at a time of year when others may not be at their very best.
I wouldn't put anyone off a speculative few quid on David Howell either, I may indeed end up backing him myself.
3pt e.w Rory McIlroy 13-2
2.2pt e.w Sergio Garcia 10-1
.4pt e.w Pod 66-1
.25pt e.w Cabrera Bello 125-1
GL all.
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Running Total....+21 points.
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Really interesting and useful to see your running points total, callit. Best of luck.
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Know the wind can be funny in the desert but it seems as if there could be a bit of an advantage for the earlies in Abu Dhabi,worth checking out the forecast particulary if you fancy a later starter.
Good write up Callit and hard to go against both Mc Ilroy and Garcia with their previous course form,was hoping to see Brandon Grace on your list,very surprised there was a bit of 40,s on Monday for him,ended up with 33,s 6 places with pp for him and around 5ish for top 10 on the exchanges,impressed me last week and a 5th at the course last year says he should handle it,would want to do a bit better with his driver and that is a bit of a worry. Grace/Luiten with Z.johnson/Snedeker for small ew doubles. Should be a good tournament in Abu Dhabi, GL with your punts. |
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I am not a golf punter but your selections over a long period of time are impressive.Commendable that you're keeping a running total of your selections (other threads would gain credibility with this approach where logistically possible).
I find it slightly surprising that in general the vast majority of threads on here focus on the selection process when imo it contributes a maximum of 50% of the required skills or characteristics necessary. Bankroll management ,staking principles,psychology and implied probability are somewhat overlooked. You are using a dutching approach where the returns are identical irrespective of the odds for your win selections but how do you gauge your staking methods on the top 20 bets etc. (just instinct or is the ratio relevant to the desired return on the win selections). |
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Didn't like what you put up about Stenson,with the extra air miles after backing him earlier today at 7/1 e/w with powers 6 places,stil think hes a cracking e/w bet,cant see him outside the top 6,With you with my old pal Bello aswell e/w 100/1,as you said has good form on the course and has played well before here if the wind gets up,have had a nice bet on him at 3/1 to be in the top 20 this week,really think this is a great bet,Now onto America not really getting involved till the last round,dont like theses type of event over 3 courses,only bets im having at the minute is Patrick Reed to finish inside the top 20 at 4/1,had a good solid start to the year in the 1st pga tour event,also done the double with Bello for the top 20 in Europe aswell,best of luck this week lads,
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Pa, If I was to select another 'shortie' in Europe(Dubai!), it would have been Grace, but after putting up Rory and Serg, fav and 3rd fav, it would have seemed a bit Jeremy Chapmanish!! Also, I feel Grace is more of a sh1t or bust type player. He seems to win when in contention, or not figure at all. I know he 2nd last week, but that a rarity. Would prefer to back him in running when he looks like he is on it.
DJ, I use a slightly modified version of the Kelly Criterion staking plan for betting purposes. I will keep the points the same to return approximately 30 points for a winner. The top 20s are a bit skewiff, but there is reason behind it. 12 points was all I was allowed have on Howell last wk. 1.73 points was all Ladbrokes took on Leonard, Betvictor accommodated me for the rest at what totalled just over 3 points. 5s available elsewhere, which I would still deem worth a bet, but left it alone, as the average price as it is is very good. The top 20 bets on English last week and Horschel this week are of smaller stakes, as I have already invested in them outright. In reality i suppose they are different bets, and should be treated separately, but in practise they are related, and I don't want to be overstaking on the one players performance. I would have had them as my prime fancies, so would prefer to stand to win a bit more on them. |
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Gone for five picks in Europe after a profitable week last week.
Martin Kaymer 14/1 Paddy Power 6 places Joost Luiten 25/1 Paddy Power 6 places Peter Hanson 40/1 Paddy Power 6 places Matteo Manaserro 80/1 betfair sportbook 5 places Rafa Cabrero Bello 100/1 William Hill 5 places All green in regulation players who have solid previous records in this tournament. Good luck with your bets. |
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backing for places is fraught with danger..howell finished joint 8th last week(12 0f them)..250 at 9/4 returned 187...so its a bit deflating when u see 8th on leader board and that all you get back..ill be doing win only from now on..
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Not much a fan of betting on the Euro Tour much, but it is top notch this week.
Bridesmaid last week, hopefully the bride in the good old US and A this week. Humana is a pro am event for the first 3 rounds so the 5 hour rounds are a bit of a pain unfortunately. Love Bill Haas, as he usually dose me a favour once a year. Won this event in 2010 and only just lost in a play off the following year in his title defence. Second pick is a dodgy proposition, when on song he's good though and has a good recent record here also, a 4th and a 6th in the last 3 years, a dodgepot of mine usually but i'm chancing Ryan Palmer possibly for the one and only time this year. Bill Haas 36's W&Pl Ryan Palmer 36's W&Pl. Joost Luiten was as good as anyone last year in europe and played well in S Africa last week, in a wide open field he'll do for me. Joost Luiten 29's W&Pl. GL peeps. |
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Decided to do a Trixie in Europe Wattel top French player 3/1,Rumford top Australian 15/8,and Grace top South Africian 6/4,then done a very small outright e/w bet double Reed 100/1 and Bello 80/1 6 places,live the impossible dream ha,best of luck again this week lads,
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Forgot to say done a little e/w bet on Bello 1st round leader 66/1,out early so hoping for a fast start,
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Horses for courses i think is the way to go for the desert swing as its played on the same courses every year in Abu Dhabi , Quatar and Dubai .
Usually wait till the weekend to have a bet on the golf but 2 that are sticking out to me at Big Odds are ... Abu Dhabi ....Thorbjorn Olsen each way 6 places Powers 60/1 ..... Played in the event twice finishing tied 8th in 2012 including a round of 66 and last year was runner up with all four rounds in the 60 s ..... Going to have a crack off that ew 6 places at 60/1 In the Humana going to chance Brian Stuard each way 5 places 55/1 B365 .... Played really well last week and might even had won if a few putts had dropped on the last day .... Can t wait to see Jimmy Walker again seriously impressive |
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Don't want to see Jimmy Walker again for the rest of the year!
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Running behind this week.
On Grace, Luiten Outright and Gonzalez Top 10 and Top 20 - Reasons are on betswot preview but Callit says enough anyway. Humama With Callit on Horschel. Also put up Brendan Steele at 150/1 and Piercy at 125/1 although they are far bigger on here. Dabbled on Garrigus and Sang Moon Bae as well - Both rank very high in birdie average and Par Breakers and Garrigus loves these types of layouts. |
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Just saw that huddys had Rafa for First Round Leader so very well done.
Might have shared it with Wattel and Baldwin but still a very nice win payout and full place bet landed. Hopefully that is the first of many profitable bets on the thread. |
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well done huddys lovely touch
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Good man Huddy,s,nice way to start the week for ya.
Going to follow you very small with Piercy and Steele,Distant View at them prices,not holding too much hope for my main bet this week. Sergio backers a bit unlucky, few pictures of him this morning prone on the ground receiving treatment for a bad shoulder. |
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Ta lads ye great start to the golf,big rounded needed by Reed later have him doubled with Bello e/w double in the outright market,i know big longshot,also have them in a double both to finish 20 works out 20/1,
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Piercy is one of those players that could shoot the lights out or play rubbish pa - He looks overpriced this week on a course that will yield a ton of birdies - All recent winners had poor enough form at the venue before they won, so we are playing the no form to speak of angle!
Same goes for Steele - He can go on a real birdie blitz when he finds his groove and form at Scottsdale has tied in well with here over the past few years. There are cases to be made for loads of players though, but playing the first few players in the market didn't appeal at all. |
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Top notch Huddys with Rafa. I usually hope McGinley does well, but was hoping he would **** up, to keep you in share of top spot.
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Quadruple bogey for Horschel on the Par 3 fifth - That takes some doing!
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Must of took a liking to the water. Prat. Was going along nicely too.
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Reed going nicely Huddys. With Garrigus leading, I wish I done the cross doubles myself this week.
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Ye were in a lovely position alright,Ye Reed going along nicely long long way to go tho,
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Terrible couple of holes for you call with Garrigus.
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I put one serious blink on Garrigus!! Double on an easy par 5, followed by a triple. Well done son.
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Nice day for the Cabera-Bello backers on here( a few of ye) Huddys still an awful long way to go but you don,t often see 8000/1 bets with a bit of a chance,very best of luck.
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Great stuff with Rafa.
Reed needs to consolidate now. He is playing La Quinta which ranked as the toughest yesterday (if there can be such a word for these courses). A -4 from him or slightly better would do well. Gonzalez in a decent position to land Top 10 and 20 bets although if he won I would be needing to use my winnings from them to pay for the laptop that was fired out the window. I don't think he can win it though and happy for him to finish 9th. Just waiting for a 59 from Steele to put is in the driving seat Pa. |
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Someone would surely shoot a 58 DV, looking like Mrs lapsy,s booze allowance this weekend is less a bottle of wine.haha.
No offence meant to all who have someone up there but really think it is a horrible tournament as none should have 80 players at -3 or better. |
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The cut after round 3 last year was -10 so that says it all.
I much prefer the courses like Riviera that are coming up, but winners have to be found each week and a lot can change in this event. Players have come from a good bit back in the past few renewals. |
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Didnt have an outright bet on Justin Leonard, but with the rest of my team playing like Chernoblyl chickens, not to mention the swimming chmapion Billy Horschel, i have decided to speculate a few quid on him.
Great rounds from Rory and Rafa today keep me in the hunt in Dubai, though a shame rafa bogey the last. Rory will be very hard to beat from here, but im sure like everyone else, if Rafa and Reed are in the hunt come Sunday, i will certainly be willing them on. As Pa said, its not often someone has a live 8000-1 shot running for them!! |
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I know lads would be delighted if they got placed,and live the dream after that,will be on the shotracker for the next few hours now ha,
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What a round by Reed tonight another -9 under,
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Very good Huddys from him,just a par on the two 5,s on his back 9, no good finishes now from the nearest for you hopefully.
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All the best Huddys with Rafa today, if he manages to pull it off Sunday I'll be cheering on Reed for you Sunday night, even though my two are right up your backside in America at present!
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Rory after been handed two shot penalty for some infringement on the 2nd hole
 . Goes from 6-4 shot to 4-1 shot. Considering he left at least 4 putts on the hole, and plenty others just wide, a 68 was the worst he could have got. To end up with a 70, and 3 off the lead, pi**es me off!!Bello didn't hole a putt all day, had a chance to put a gloss on it, with a 10ft eagle on the last, but that grazed the edge too. |
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Self pity rant over,.......I still think Justin Leonard is way too big at 140. Small top up.
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If the penalty does not upset him still reckon Rory will win it but its annoying even for anyone with a couple of quid on.
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With Reed as good as home and hose stateside, hopefully Cab Bello can conjure up a bit of magic in the morning. I obviously want Rory to burn it up aswell, but be great to see a lad land an 8000-1 double.
Hoping one of them win, but i suppose two places wouldnt be too bad. With Leonard odds on for top 20 in states, its not looking too bad. Though i fear Rory could come out a little agitated and gunning at flags to make up the '2 shots'. It could go well, or it could go very wrong. Come on Rafa!! On a side note, the 10-11 on Kaymer to win his 3 ball looks a great bet. Should be more like 4-7. |