Irish Sports
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In the Pertemps Qualifier tomorrow I like EMPIRE OF DIRT at 9/1. He looked outpaced behind Apache Stronghold two runs back over 2m 4f and ran well over the same trip last time out behind Fauugheen. He steps up to three miles tomorrow and I think the trip could bring out significant improvement. He's out of a Roselier mare so he should handle the ground while he's a half brother to Panther Claw who stays very well. Colm Murphy is no stranger to handicap success at this meeting (Glam Gerry and Shariyan spring to mind) and I think he'll go close tomorrow off 10-10. The one I fear is Tony Martin's Living Next Door, who gets in at bottom weight and was running well last time in the Troytown before coming down at the last.
I think SOLWHIT is bombproof in the Christmas Hurdle. Zaidpour's best form is right handed imo, although he did run well in this race last season. Mullins horses are under a bit of a cloud and I'd have to really fancy one in order to back one of them until I think they've turned a corner. I'm a big Rule The World fan but thought he was really disappointing last time out. I wonder if they're just taking things relatively handy with him this season to get more experience before he goes chasing? At any rate he has 16 lbs on ratings to make up on Solwhit and I don't think he's going to bridge that gap tomorrow. Solwhit goes well on soft ground, has won over three miles before and goes well at Leopardstown. He's 8/11 with Boyles; I'd have him 2/5.
I really like TALBOT ROAD in the beginners' chase. He caught the eye when staying on well in third behind Bright New Dawn and Dogora. Important here is the Arthur Moore factor. He targets this meeting and was successful with this very horse when winning a maiden hurdle at the meeting last year. He had a quiet run before that success too and the stars look like they've aligned again for him now if you know what I mean. Mullins' horse would be a warm order if the race was ran a week ago but there are doubts about the health of his string now so I've opposed him happily with Talbot Road at 3/1. 11/4 now, still a good bet in my eyes.
The Lexus is hard to call. I thought Sir Des Champs would win the Gold Cup last season and I still think he'll win a Gold Cup granted good ground. Tomorrow is definitely not 'the day' for him though. His seasonal debut was a disaster as he murdered a fence early in the John Durkan and was lucky not to break his neck. The ground has turned against him too but he's so talented you can never rule him out. Bobs Worth will love the Leopardstown hill but has to bounce back from a shocking run at Haydock. There are negatives alongside many of them. Of the others I think Lyreen Legend might be over priced at 20/1, but he'll need some of the big guns to under perform and it's a big ask on his comeback run. There's no way he should be over three times the price of Unioniste though, something wrong there. A race to watch for me.
I think SOLWHIT is bombproof in the Christmas Hurdle. Zaidpour's best form is right handed imo, although he did run well in this race last season. Mullins horses are under a bit of a cloud and I'd have to really fancy one in order to back one of them until I think they've turned a corner. I'm a big Rule The World fan but thought he was really disappointing last time out. I wonder if they're just taking things relatively handy with him this season to get more experience before he goes chasing? At any rate he has 16 lbs on ratings to make up on Solwhit and I don't think he's going to bridge that gap tomorrow. Solwhit goes well on soft ground, has won over three miles before and goes well at Leopardstown. He's 8/11 with Boyles; I'd have him 2/5.
I really like TALBOT ROAD in the beginners' chase. He caught the eye when staying on well in third behind Bright New Dawn and Dogora. Important here is the Arthur Moore factor. He targets this meeting and was successful with this very horse when winning a maiden hurdle at the meeting last year. He had a quiet run before that success too and the stars look like they've aligned again for him now if you know what I mean. Mullins' horse would be a warm order if the race was ran a week ago but there are doubts about the health of his string now so I've opposed him happily with Talbot Road at 3/1. 11/4 now, still a good bet in my eyes.
The Lexus is hard to call. I thought Sir Des Champs would win the Gold Cup last season and I still think he'll win a Gold Cup granted good ground. Tomorrow is definitely not 'the day' for him though. His seasonal debut was a disaster as he murdered a fence early in the John Durkan and was lucky not to break his neck. The ground has turned against him too but he's so talented you can never rule him out. Bobs Worth will love the Leopardstown hill but has to bounce back from a shocking run at Haydock. There are negatives alongside many of them. Of the others I think Lyreen Legend might be over priced at 20/1, but he'll need some of the big guns to under perform and it's a big ask on his comeback run. There's no way he should be over three times the price of Unioniste though, something wrong there. A race to watch for me.
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In the opening race I like Riverside City, will wait until I see the prices before I decide whether to bet or not though. He loked to really appreciate the step up to 2m 4f last time out when finishing strongly behind Clonard Lad at Naas. Akorakor was disappointing last time out and the form of what looked a strong bumper he won now looks nothing special. Sure Reef will probably be favourite but the way some of Mullins' a running I'll take him on at likely prohibitive odds. I'd be hoping to get 5/1 about Riverside City.
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nice write up slabster..best of luck mate....my only bet there is @limerick in the bumper with FULTON, swan has a decent s/r there ..
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The nap for me today is Talbot Road in the novice chase. This horse has a lot of potential as a staying chaser and is being brought along slowly . Had a low key hurdling campaign and ran ok first time behind Bright New Dawn. That run may be good enough but I think will improve and stiffer track a help.
The 3 mile hurdle revolved around whether Solwhit is ready but i'm always keen to assume to be race fit you need to race so i'll take a chance on Mala Beach . The race may turn into a real slog and not bad value if it does. In the Limerick 1.35 its the potential of Faugheen v the proven graded form of Azorian . At 4/1 its Azorian for me and I think Flaming Dawn will win the maiden hurdle. Good Luck all. |
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My 3 for today are as follows ,
Leop .Rule the World I think Davy looked after him the last day with this race in mind ,stepping up in distance and with conditions to suit I believe he can turn the tables on Rubys mount .... Si C'etait Vrai is another of Davys I give a huge chance to , both his runs against M.A. where very good , in this case the drop back in trip and the fact he can handle heavy ground are a big plus .... Finally Lord Windermere e/w in the big one , with question marks against a lot of these re the ground i think this young horse can run into a place if not win it..... Good luck all ...... |
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Talbot nr.
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Going to go for a few big priced ews, Sarabad and Shamiran in the pertemps, Sarabad does have a nice pull in the weights with Followmeuptocarlow when they were 3rd and 5th respectively at the Punchestown festival(heavy), if Shamiran can reproduce his Galway 2nd could just sneak into the frame.
Also going to have few quid ew Castlerock Rose none too consistent but does have plenty of good runs at Limerick on his cv. The Lexus looks a cracker but I think I will just savor it rather than bet in it. Anyway best of luck we'll need it. |
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Back today got the first in at Chepstow.
Need to be more selective...altho I do find myself looking at Empire of Dirt in the next. |
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I cant understand how Bobs Worth is 7-2. SDS will never be as good on this ground, its probably worse than it was for GC. He has to overcome a shuddering fall lto, and considering he has never really jumped great out of this ground, its easy enough to see him being pretty cautious over first few. Davy wont be gunning him at anything until very late in the day. They will be delighted with a confidence booster.
Unioniste has lot to find to be beating these, and is priced up on stable form, and the ground. Ground which Bobs Worth won a GOld Cup on. First Lieutenant also prefers much better ground, and went backwards from his seasonal debut lto. Lord Windermere isn't good enough. Bobs being priced up on stable from too, but at the prices I think this is more than accounted for. I would make him about 6-4. Hendo wouldn't be bringing him all the way over here, unless he thought he had him right back to his best. |
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Had to turn back , massive traffic jam on the m50 , from leop slip road to entrance to kilternan ..I'd say people will miss the first couple at least ....
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Gone for Azorian, Empire of Dirts form does not bode well for Faugheen.
Also had Briar Hill in trouble, travels well, jumps well and just needs to settle. |
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Gone for faugheen myself
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Got that badly wrong....Faugheen hacks up in a canter.
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Zaidpour big price now.
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Hype was right for Faugheen all the time,thought he was so very impressive despite a few fiddly jumps.
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showed some engine on that ground lapsy
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How are ya Dingle,hope you had a good Christmas.
Been hyped since before he ran but thought that was some run in a decent field,The Job Is Right is a very decent stayer and didn,t turn a hair to beat him,the rest nowhere. Hard to see him getting beat and very probably better on goodish ground. Something else. |
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you too lapsy ... backed mala ew last night at 8s ( big rule 4 i know ) ...thought he might do it dont know why Colgan didn t bring him wide going around like russell and ruby
 ....last all chance hanging after the last |
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Grey Monk looks good bet at 6-4 without the two favs here.
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jays lads d mullins is very untidy..
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don t start me on danny mullins kavie
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Normal service resumed the mullins bandwagon rolls on
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im beginning to think my 10/1 our conor isnt a great bet to be boasting about..if ruby bg or dr was on minsk chances are he would have won..
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Very undeserving of the job he holds.
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i has no bet but that was shocking..id say minsks confidence is shattered after him..
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I had a few bob on the winner, aswell as that terrible bet on the Monk. Ruby(and the crazy 4yo allowance) were certainly the differences.
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done merry king in welsh national ew..if he jumps he might go close
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What happened with the in running on the Page Turner Race,winner never headed and matched at 1000/1?
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Would some one put a bit of pace into the Lexus...for **** sake Russell take it up and stretch.
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great come back..what price the gold cup now?
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GET IN THERE BOBS
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Superb leap at the last when he needed it. Was always going to win from there.
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Wd there with Bobs Callit,you made a good case.
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Think its worth taking a chance on Sara O Brien being capable enough to get King Leon home in front in the bumper. Silver Concorde is a small sort, with no scope. Looked to have temperament issues when last seen at the Galway festival, though obviously may just like going right handed. On Your Eoin also has a monster layoff to overcome, though is now being supported and is probably the danger. I doubt Silver going to love the ground either, Dansilis have a very poor record on soft.
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this weld bumper runner has been backed twice..but been off ..weld must rate it to keep it..hes not slow to get rid..anyone know why Robbie mac is not riding for weld?..i noticed o,connor riding for him lately?
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Injured
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thanks olc
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the giggy horse pulling like a train!
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get in!
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Robbie Mac-broken collarbone leading up to Hennessy ride on Lord Windermere
WD Callit-Difficult to see anything stopping him winning at the festival for the 4th successive year-Conti in a bog perhaps the only scenario. |