Kempton 26th December

This is the race of the year, flat or jumps for me and I think the Tent will do him too. In a game of jockeys over flights there are few better than McCoy.

dj876,you are making too many excuses for your selection before the race has even started.

Not at all the Gotchee- there is nothing worse than an analysis such as will love the ground,the track, therefore only acknowledging strengths and not noting possible weaknesses or threats (they are always there to some degree).

I took a nosebleed today from lazy analysis too quick to forgive a horse a poor run (put it down to better ground because I really liked his toughness last year) -the signs were there jumped shocking on seasonal debut,why I should have been saying?Tough novice season-too many hard races,what have the opposition that he beat as novices done since over hurdles,has Rebecca Curtis enough experience of handling high profile horse etc etc.(easy to say with hindsight).

Maybe ye can find selections with what ye perceive as having no dangers or threats but I don't think that's how this game works.The reason I post on here-I will never back something because someone tips it but someone might suggest a variable that I have not fully considered which could assist my thought process.

you will be responsible for putting ozy on the street...

at fishers cross ran a bad race LTO, virtually jumped every hurdle badly, what made you think it would be able to beat the multiple grade 1 winner rev de sivola so easily, considering that horse won the same race last year and was the only value bet in that race.

it was odds on rr....thats the only reason he thought it would win.

I think the prices are about right. On official ratings The New One is rated 7 lbs superior to My Tent, so even with McCoy's mythical 3 lbs, I don't think he has enough to beat The New One. Furthermore it could be argued that The New One's best performance was when slamming Rock on Ruby at Kempton last October so there will be no problem with the track. The New One is very straightforward and has no issues with the ground,no issues with being able to settle, he can lead or sit in behind and he has no issue when it comes to a battle. Its hard to get away from the fact that The New One has comfortably beaten genuine and proven Grade one opponents.

what grade one horses has the new one ever beaten over hurdles.....the answer is none......

Brill Richters ......

richters     22 Dec 13 01:38 
you will be responsible for putting ozy on the street...

Fair enough the Gotchee,a difference of opinion which makes a market.I would question whether ROR and Zarkandar are now true 2 mile champion hurdle horses highlighted by the fact that connections think it's pointless in contesting it,ROR will be in the Arkle/jewson and Zarkandar in the stayers hurdle (I am well aware of their past champion hurdle record btw).

It would be very unusual for a horse to have the stamina to win the 2m 5f novice hurdle at the festival on softish ground and the speed to win a small field Christmas hurdle on the flattest of tracks, (again you can point to likes of Istabraq (just a freak) or Hardy Eustace subsequent champion hurdle records).Fair enough you have to have a true blend of speed and stamina to win a champion but this represents a very different challenge(speed test imo). I was a little surprised that the new one looked momentarily (slightly) outpaced at Cheltenham (highlighted by the fact that he was matched at 2.94 in running)over 17 furlongs against a stayers hurdle candidate.

lads would i be mad thinking mount belbulben would have a chance in he kg?.if he jumped ok he would be as good as any of them?.id say he will be 16/20s on the day?

Huddys fancied him as well Kavvie , I think if he gets around , he'll have a great chance ..He will be carrying a few of mine , cant desert him now can I...

kavvie - You wouldn't be mad, you'd be phuckin' certifiable

touch of class there i think..i know the jumping is the big imponderable..but ill chance a few quid ew on the day..the ones at the top of the market are no great shakes(no kauto,best mate or kicking king class) and and all have question marks also..

kav you hit the nail on the head....a flat right handed track.....it could possibly suit this dog mount benbulben.....and lets be fair about him.....a dog he is.......on form cue card should take the beating but bad reports coming from the tizzard yard about a virus......my advice for a bet would be just lay what dj 19456789guesser puts up because it hasnt a clue but he uses exclamation marks,commas and brackets so he must no his peas and que cards.............

put up a very good speed figure at punchestown.if he stands up and doesnt make too many mistakes he def will be in the mix..

dont think cue card will be winning the king george imo.

im plaice laying too.

s conti for me.

kav the track should suit,as you say his figures at punchestown were good but keep in mind he is on of the biggest dogs in training.....he run right handed in the queens racecourse in the maze aginst the giggi 2 but didnt seem to go a yard....i have it backed for small money.....bring back the days of kicking king and kauto when ye knew boxing day was a payout day.......well it is now a payout day with the likes of kingrock and tracksuit dave dj the guess.......but i hate boasting.....each to their own.....

poor old dickie,tried to take on the kid.first of all,u have to have a brain!

i rem the the year kicking king won it.i bkd him heavy that day.also backed hm that morn for gold cup.bg nearly came off him at the last when clear.i was in a pub with a crowd of fellow backers..my heart missed a beat for sure..a great evening was had after..!!

drifting a bit on here which is a worry..nothing on the lay side..a bigger worry..musnt be running

Could be high seas Kavvie,some day ahead for both Ireland and UK weatherwise and tomorrow not much better.He is the ideal horse for pp,s faller insurance, though very skinny there.

Can we really believe that Long Run has deteriorated that much since his narrow defeat to Sir Des Champ at Punchestown?, hes still only an 8 year old, if he didn't run those 2 poor races I'd say he would be vying for favoritism?.

I for one am willing to take the chance that he still retains plenty of ability the bigger prices have been nibbled at but is still a general 10/1 shot at a track he likes, if he does come right back to form hard to see him out of the frame bar a fall of course.

Mount Benbulben has the engine alright,demolished Lovethehigherlaw and Mozoltov in separate Bumpers,with a clear round can see it going close.

Meant to add it's a big day for Danny Mullins.

Ladbrokes King George prices =   3/1 jt favs of 3

PP money back up to 100e if second to Cue Card.

Backed Mount Benbulben again today 12/1 get better price if it goes out on the day,

To be honest, I cant entertain Mount Belbulben in this at all. I find it unbelievable how long the hype bubble has surrounded this horse. Rather than his jumping frailties making his price bigger, I think there is some sort of aura about them, and what he might do with a clear round.
What has he ever done over hurdles or fences to be given any sort of chance in this company?? People say he was travelling well when falling at DR. So he was, but he was far from certain to win. And he did fall. Again. He surely cant be any less than evens to jump around, given the gallop they will go.
That makes him about 7-1 to win with a clear round?
Even if he sh*t in at Down Royal, I wouldn't have him any shorter. Sizing patently didn't give his running, beaten too far our for it to be just the trip. And jumped very poorly. Flight Lieutenant too underperformed. Kauto is finished. Was a poor race, far removed from the KG.
I would have him the outsider of the field, and am hoping there is a match bet available with Champion Court.
Huddys, I wish you the best as always, and will be the first to hold my hands up if he makes a fool out me.

As regards the Hurdle, I agree to a point with what dj said in opening post. MTOY does have more chance against TNO here, than he will in the CH. But I think that backing MTOY would involve a lot of ifs, buts and maybes. I don't think hes the better horse, I think TNO is more tactically versatile, he possesses a lot more speed than given credit for, was hugely impressive lto, and is the Champion in waiting. To my eye, speed was the over riding element of TNOs novice season. He put races to bed in the blink of an eye, and when beaten by AFC, it was his premature production of this burst of speed which led to his defeat.
MTOY is one of these sexy types that punters seem to be lured into believing are better than they are. Undoubtedly talented, I just don't think he possesses the same ability as TNO, and at odds against I will definitely be siding with TNO.

The one I am really looking forward to having a good cut one is Vanteaux in the first. I was hugely impressed with him on debut, both on looks and performance. He could go right to the top, and would expect him to account for these along the way. 7-2 looks well worth taking. 

Leopardstown is another Mullins benefit.

what a day here on the west coast..lets hope it abates a bit soon..scanning the net there..kate winslett called her son bear..nice name for your child  to have..bear rockroll!!.slightly unsettling to see callit ruling out mt belbulben but to my mind if he stands up and dont make any serious errors hes in the mix.any addicts might like to have a bet on the cricket xmas day.pp are doing an intresting special..top aussie batsman market double ur money if he scores a century...my man says rogers is the bet here at 5/1..its on at the mcg which is rogers home patch and he scores well there..england are beaten already and might not have the stomach for a  battle.he could easily achieve a century but even if he didnt 5/1 is a good price .happy christmas one and all!

Interesting shout on the cricket kavvie, Rogers spent 10 years playing in Perth at the WACA, the last few years playing for Victoria, so it is his current home, I suppose.  He does have has a strong Sheffield Shield record at the MCG, and scored 117 and 88 in his most recent outing there against NSW last month.  One of two of Australia's top 7 to have failed to score a Century so far this Ashes, hasn't been happy with his form, maybe he is due.

i like the look of Al Ferof in the KG,Hasn't had a mention on here which i found a little surprising,Has some really good form in the book and 3 Miles was always gonna be his game,Think the GC trip will suit him even more in march.

ialso like al ferof, there was a good interview with john hales in the post yesterday..he is always a bullish owner..but to say this horse is the nearest to one man?..i think he must really fancy it.

Don't think he's ever ran a bad race tony,Awful shame he was injured last season,But still think he's top notch,
Nicholls 1-2 for me,Long Run to follow them home in 3rd.

well chelts,..in this race we sink or swim together..?happy holidays mate..to you and yours..and a prosperous new year.

Happy xmas to you too tony,Have a good one.