Irish Sports
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
02 Dec 13
17:38
Joined:
Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
When Skybet where the first to price this up yesterday and went 12s on Donald, I got excited. When everyone else priced it up today, and 16s was generally available, well, it was time to get stuck in!! It may be the length of the course that has resulted in such an inflated price, Luke is never going to be a bomber, but with strategically placed bunkers in vast quantities, Lukes ability to pick his way through a course, and most importantly his recently returned deadly putting, can come to the fore. Course length didn't stop him from finishing 5th in the season ending championship in Dubai, and nor should it stop him competing here. 5th is his best finish here, but equally, he has been no worse than 11th. All but one of those appearances were pre 2010, and he is now a much better golfer. He finished 7th in 2011, but had just come off a gruellingly long campaign in winning both money lists. He will be a far hungrier golfer now, having just won his first event of the season two weeks ago. 16-1 in a field of only 30 players, with plenty of dead wood, is a corking each way bet. I often regret not waiting til after round one to back Luke, as he is habitually a slow starter, but I will just top up if he opens with an average round.
Stenson is deservedly favourite, having played the best golf on the planet recently. But surely he is due some down time? Between constantly being in contention, and holding off all comers to win Fed Ex and Euro Tour money, plus injury worries, he has to be ready for a break. Hence is easy enough to Passover at 3-1
How Justin Rose and Charl Schwartzel are half the price of a resurgent Donald baffles me. Neithers course form is any better than Lukes, and I would prefer Lukes bottle to both. Martin Kaymer is finding it hard to rediscover the winning touch, and nobody else really jumps out. 16s e.w is a cracking bet.
In Tigers event, I backed Rory e.w for it at 8s on Saturday, he was hardly going to drift, and obviously shorten if he was successful. I cant really see beyond him or Tiger. Its very boring backing the two favourites, but if boring is profitable, im all for it!! Tigers record in this event speaks for itself. He is much better shape now than in any of the last 3 years, when 1st, 2nd and 4th. Backing e.w at 3-1 is basically guaranteeing a return of at least 80% of your stake. Rory will hardly rest on last weeks lauerls, and being the cocky fuc*er that he is, he will probably turn it up another gear after what was a superb win. Taking down Scott last week, he will have his eyes on the Tiger this Sunday.
What I think is the best bet in this event, is Steve Stricker in the top American w/o Tiger at 13-2 with Skybet. Stricker has handpicked his events all year, and only finished outside the top 12 on 3 out of 13 starts. They were usually in a high grade too. His record here isn't superb, but he has usually arrived as a 40 something year old, who has had a long hard season. He is still 40 something, but has had no hard season. Like the reason for backing Tiger and Rory, hunger is a huge factor in these end of season events. Some in this field rarely seem to bothered with it. Rory and Tiger will obviously be giving it 100%, as too will Stricker. He wouldn't be playing it if that wasn't the plan. Backing e.w at 13-2 means, to not be placed he will probably have to finish outside the top 6. I cant envisage that happening. Backing him in this market also means he probably wont have to win the evnt, which is a huge help because he has struggled to get over the line of late. second to Rory and Tiger will do just fine!! Get on!!
Stenson is deservedly favourite, having played the best golf on the planet recently. But surely he is due some down time? Between constantly being in contention, and holding off all comers to win Fed Ex and Euro Tour money, plus injury worries, he has to be ready for a break. Hence is easy enough to Passover at 3-1
How Justin Rose and Charl Schwartzel are half the price of a resurgent Donald baffles me. Neithers course form is any better than Lukes, and I would prefer Lukes bottle to both. Martin Kaymer is finding it hard to rediscover the winning touch, and nobody else really jumps out. 16s e.w is a cracking bet.
In Tigers event, I backed Rory e.w for it at 8s on Saturday, he was hardly going to drift, and obviously shorten if he was successful. I cant really see beyond him or Tiger. Its very boring backing the two favourites, but if boring is profitable, im all for it!! Tigers record in this event speaks for itself. He is much better shape now than in any of the last 3 years, when 1st, 2nd and 4th. Backing e.w at 3-1 is basically guaranteeing a return of at least 80% of your stake. Rory will hardly rest on last weeks lauerls, and being the cocky fuc*er that he is, he will probably turn it up another gear after what was a superb win. Taking down Scott last week, he will have his eyes on the Tiger this Sunday.
What I think is the best bet in this event, is Steve Stricker in the top American w/o Tiger at 13-2 with Skybet. Stricker has handpicked his events all year, and only finished outside the top 12 on 3 out of 13 starts. They were usually in a high grade too. His record here isn't superb, but he has usually arrived as a 40 something year old, who has had a long hard season. He is still 40 something, but has had no hard season. Like the reason for backing Tiger and Rory, hunger is a huge factor in these end of season events. Some in this field rarely seem to bothered with it. Rory and Tiger will obviously be giving it 100%, as too will Stricker. He wouldn't be playing it if that wasn't the plan. Backing e.w at 13-2 means, to not be placed he will probably have to finish outside the top 6. I cant envisage that happening. Backing him in this market also means he probably wont have to win the evnt, which is a huge help because he has struggled to get over the line of late. second to Rory and Tiger will do just fine!! Get on!!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 92
|
By:
Callit,
I will forgive your appalling presentation in the above post, on the basis that you seem to be in good tipping form of late. Please make more of an effort in the future. Thanks and good luck |
|
By:
Great write up as always,Have already backed Tiger at 11/4 with Chelsea in a double which won at 4/7,in the Nedbank you make some valid points against doing Stenson but im after backing him at 3/1 and also done the double on him and Tiger aswell,Stenson hasn't played here since four years ago,but in his previous four visits hes been second fourth second and won,the time he won he won by 8 shots,so the way im looking at this is will be full of confidents with nothing to fear this week,granted tho when he last played here the field was only 12 and now its up to 30,back to Tigers tournament im going to give Westwood one last chance betting w/o Tiger e/w at 18/1,think we could see a new man with him having the old caddie back on the bag,Now on to the Hong Kong open a player ive been backing the last few times Bello,im giving him another chance in a very weak field e/w at 22/1,in my view think he should be 1/2 the odds than the 22/1 that is freely available,in two of his last four tournaments hes been fav going into the last round only to not get the job done,really think he has an outstand chance this week,ive also done a e/w double with him 22/1 and Westwood 18/1 without Woods,should be a cracking weeks golf ahead,best of luck lads,
|
|
By:
Ozy
 . I don't read it after I write it, which is just as well by the looks of it . Huddys, agree about Cab Bello, also backed him each way at 22s. Field full of sh*te. Its not hard to see him involved come Sunday. May find it easier to get over the line in this grade. I think Big Mig is a cracking e.w bet at 10s. He certainly wont be far away, on a track he loves, he will be primed for it. I think he should be more like 11-2 or 6-1, and was more than prepared to get involved at 8s. 10s is a bonus. I hope!! |
|
By:
That better Ozy?
 |
|
By:
I,m relieved you,re giving Jimenez the thumbs up this week
. Him and Stenson main bets this week for me,not too sure with Tiger,seems short to me still did him in a small money ew treble(about 130/1) and also the first two with Zach,Hunter and Furyk for bit more ambitiuos ones.Cracking golf this week, gl all with your punts. |
|
By:
An improvement, thanks callit
You know, it seems like you golf chaps do reasonably well. It would be very interesting if from Jan 1,2014 you ran a little tipping 4 Ball. Callit, Huddys, DV and Lapsy. Say 10 points to be allocated per week. And track the profitability. |
|
By:
They run a competition on the main golf forum,a good few hundred enter it at the start of the year,see BJG and Deplaster both made the top 10 which is a fair feat.
|
|
By:
Don't venture on there, Lapsy. I forgot Dep.
Would you not have a little competition on here? |
|
By:
It,s not about a competition in my eyes,you have a few here that enjoy watching/betting it and more about putting thoughts up if and when felt like it rather than the constraints of a comp where you are obliged. Its not i,m against the idea but probably a free spirited approach is better i think. All through the year various people here hit nice runs of form with their selections(i didn,t being fair,just a very odd winner)If others wanted to i would but think the weekly golf thread on the Irish forum is very good.
|
|
By:
Donald is an appalling price as he would/will find it extremely tough going around here.The Nedbank is a brute of a course that has always rewarded the very best of ball strikers - Those who hit it long and straight.See previous players who have dominated here such as Westwood/Stenson/Garcia
Outside of the four par 5s there is only one other wedge approach on the course.This is in contrast to Dubai which has 8/9 holes that Donald hits wedge into despite its' supposed length.Some short hitters have done well in the past (such as Clark in 2009/10) but he is as good as any with approaches from 200yards or so. I think the winner will come from stenson/garcia/woodland. I can't have schwartzel,he was underwhelming last week and his 2nd here was in a weak renewal last year. Even if Donald has a good week i'd be shocked if he didn't find a couple of players too good in this field with the quality that is here this year.Just another opinion! I do like Rory though I'm with you there. |
|
By:
Interesting Chris.
It is Garcia and Woodland that I have been looking at and will finalise tomorrow. Woodland should love this test, but the concern is the amazingly poor record of debutants, given how many there are each year. He will be able to play 9 irons and wedges into many of these longer Par 4s, while the shorter hitters will be playing 5 irons or so in and it can be a big advantage. Garcia has an excellent record here and it's slightly lower profile helps. The trouble is if Stenson plays the way he can, then they are all playing for second place. His display on the very long Serengeti course last year, that got him going again, is fresh in the memory too. On balance I will go with the feeling that he has pretty much done everything that he set out to do in the closing months of the season and is worth taking on. |
|
By:
Chris, I take on board that this test isn't Lukes ideal, but that has been more than factored into the price imo. If 16s, or the 18s on here is appalling, what price would you make him yourself? I just think looking through the field, there are reasons to take on nearly everybody, from the likes of Stenson maybe being over golfed, and the likes of Luiten just not being good enough in this company, to an injured Richard Sterne, to no hopers like Points etc. In my head I have ruled out so many that 4s on Donald to be placed looks a great bet.
Lukes issue is an obvious one, but the obvious ones are always factored into the price in an inflated way. I have, like yourself and DV, been toying over backing Garcia. He is the only other one that is interesting me at the prices. But the petulant little fu**er is someone I find it very hard to back. I made an exception for the Players, and after the 17th I think I was more disgusted with myself than Sergio!! But, from sitting on the tightrope, ye have nudged me into his corner, so will owe both of ye a pint if he does the business . Personally don't think Woodland has the bottle to get over the line in an assignment like this. |
|
By:
Was doing a bit of shopping earlier, and found myself beside a ****. Had just noticed they going top price of 15-2 on Stricker for top American w/o Tiger. Went in, not expecting to get a whole lot on, but to be fair they took a good bet, and I see they haven't cut the price since. Surprising on both fronts.
|
|
By:
**** Spoils.
|
|
By:
Woodland is 17/4 for top ten finish with slybet. Probably a palp if a winner though.
|
|
By:
^ Looks as if it should be 7/4 the same as a lot of them Kiddo,deffo a palp.
|
|
By:
Gone for the jugular this week, with combination e.w trebles and accumulators, with Tiger/Rory, Serg/Luke, Jimenez/Cab-Bello, Stricker(top US w/o Tiger).
GL all. |
|
By:
Think most golf bettors have gone for a few combo,s and Jimenez,Woods Stenson be stuck in a fair few with others,hope its a clean out for the books,quiet on the betting front with no Irish Meeting this week and Clonmel tomorrow looks tough, so really looking forward to the golf.Bring it on!!!!1
|
|
By:
Yes lads lets hope were all in the running come sunday,hopefully Bello gets the ball rolling later off around 11 this evening,
|
|
By:
On Schwartzel and Garcia.
Both mercurial players with temperament issues. My kind of bet. |
|
By:
Going to back Bello for first rd leader Huddys. Prone to a fast start lately, and out early.
|
|
By:
Frustrating.
Why can't I get on Garcia at better than 12/1? |
|
By:
Was freely available at 14s Mon and Tue Apple.
|
|
By:
Looked like I could get on at 16s.
Looked this morning and he was 12s. Thanks Steve Palmer.   |
|
By:
Ive just backed Bello for small money for 1st round leader 28/1 e/w,ye can be a let down when Palmer picks one of your selections and the price goes in Applehunter,usually do my bets Monday evening or Tuesdays so you get the best possible price,
|
|
By:
Garcia at evens in his 3 ball looks an early Christmas present. Plays an injured Richard Sterne, and an out of form, not good enough, DA Points, who also has no previous course experience. Which is a drawback here. Sterne was next to useless last week, shooting a cricket score, at a venue he has consistently played well at. Unless he is Lazarus, he wont be making much impact this week. Its only Thursday, so Serg can be relied upon to put in his usual good shift around here. I be shocked if he doesn't collect here. 8.54 am kick off. Evens available in Spoils and Victor, and 1.98 on here.
|
|
By:
Why is play suspended
Euro site says it's for a "dangerous situation"! WTF does that mean? |
|
By:
Play suspended here at Sun City due to storms in the area. #booooooooooooo
|
|
By:
Lightning about . Spectators making their way off course / to shelter . Red button on 4 .
|
|
By:
Did they say they likely to be off long??
|
|
By:
Great start by you Call,need a good round by the Spanish lads in Hong Kong tomorrow,will be a huge round to see how you are standing,Backed Tiger 1st round leader with powers enhanced price 11/2,
|
|
By:
Was thinking of backing Rory first rd lead Huddys. 8s in Spoils. He out first, so gets the best of the greens. Hopefully still feeding off last weeks adrenalin. Tiger still 11-2 in SJames. Good start from Luke, but very early days, only half a round gone. Hopefully Serg can put that 3 ball to bed in the early hours.
|
|
By:
Is the golf on sports sports 4 at 7,on the upc listing not showing up the golf
|
|
By:
Scheduled to be on the red button from 8 Huddys. Mosconi Cup on mainstream, crazy!! Not sure if the delay effects that, doubt it. No good to me, working, and cant record red button.
|
|
By:
Not on red button for Sky 4 I think, as its coming up on the page when you go forward,did say on the listings it was red button alright.
|
|
By:
The Mosconi cup finished a day early yesterday,so hopefully it will be on sky sports 4,cant get the red button with upc,thanks lads for the reply
|
|
By:
On at 8:00 on main Sky Sports 4 it seems.
|
|
By:
Thanks Distant View
|
|
By:
Stricker had a shocking finish to his round. Tiger nicely poised, Rory still in it. Didn't see any of it, must have been playing pretty tough.
|