SATURDAYS GROUP RACES

rockfel stakes

AL THAKHIRA 901
BLOCKADE 900
HOKU 884
LIGHTENING THUNDER 883
THEWANDAOFU 882
VALONIA 873
IFRIKA 872
LUSTROUS 863
VENTURA MIST 850

autum stakes

OAKLAHOMA CITY 919
MOUNT LOGAN 917
SAFETY CHECK 902
TRUTH OR DARE 893
GOD WILLING 891
KINGSTON HILL 875
NEZAR 866
SIR JACK LAYDEN 866
PUPIL 792

darley stakes

AMRALAH 922
SHORT SQUEEZE 920
PAVLOSK 911
AFONSO DE SOUSA 909
FRENCH NAVY 908
FARRAAJ 900
CHAPTER SEVEN 900
BOOM AND BUST 896
FANTASIC MOON 893
PROUD CHIEFTAN 885
TALES OF GRIMM 882
BRONZE ANGEL 878
KASSIANO 859
TULLIIUS 858
GABRIAL 852
PREMIO LOCO 820
FEURBLITZ 805
HIGHLAND KNIGHT 792

roadrunner46     12 Oct 13 16:38 
wasnt a good bet in the phoenix stakes, price was so wrong, gotta understand they were both group 2 winners at that stage,
on price alone you would of been backing the winner. two wins in a row now, successful notebook horse for me. horse has
delivered when the money was down, shows RP ratings not to far offLaugh will need to improve next year and no doubt.

Posted after the race (obviously by u) in ref to War Command^

So u backed the 4th best horse on ur ratings even tho he was the shortest price? What would the theory behind this be?

These might be pedigree values BJG, i,m not sure but look to me very similar "values" to the thread on the very top of page2

BJG, dont be wasting your time trying to understand his 'logic'. There isnt any. He is some man to nap winners after the event. Yet to have backed a loser. I'm not a fan of the constant bickering and name calling on here, but i would make an exception for this lad. I will leave it at just.......nice bloke, wrong planet

pedigree values, he wants to believe i do my own ratings like everyone else on the antepost forum
their was a well bred horse that won on saturday, suessical 924 was very easy to find, know all the ratings
for stallions going back generations  and their ratings from memory now and the most influential bloodlines,
only use the standard RPR'S,  if you checked the WAR COMMAND thread you will know ive supported that horse
since the defeat in the phoneix, going back few months posted my views on that thread many times. the horse
has always been rated highly by RPR'S been near the top of the 2yo's ratings.

summary so far for pedigree values this season (all group races in england 2013) statistics for 139 races run so far
will do complete results after all the group races are run

GROUP 1
highest x 2 wins
lowest x 0 wins

GROUP 2
highest x 7 wins
lowest x 3 wins

GROUP 3
highest x 9 wins
lowest x 4 wins

Have you thought about having your work published, roadrunner?  There may be a gap in he market for such insight.

as the say in cork...some beauty!!

no doubt next season i will have an edge over most punters in the group races

You say 18 winners from 139 runners,your winners would want to be averaging out at around 7/1 to break even. By concentrating so much on the pedigree values you have missed clear form choices in this thread and the Cheverly Park thread.

Raymond, I mean, sorry, Roadrunner, you are, indeed, an excellent driver.

a conundrum!!

ive never recommened following all the highest rated off a cliff to achieve profits, just a value on the pedigree,
as proven in most cases, the highest rated more often or not doesnt win, seems to be everyones always looking for
system that will generate profits by following the highest or top rated to win, not really what i expected to happen,
always better to try and understand what the stats are saying as opposed to hoping they will deliver instant profits.
blindly following.

as you say ive missed clear form choices, learnt something more valuable then just reading the formbook, developed an understanding
of pedigrees, that didnt know anything about before, already know how to read the formbook in my own way better than most

do you thing its better to win steady profits all the time? or more from a winning multiple that wins if your lucky on average 25 times a year.

Presume you are asking me the question there,winning multiple every second week could be anything as a multiple can almost be infinite, steady profit is showing your decision making is consistent. Personally would gamble on the multiple.
No offence meant and while pedigree has a bearing on a race and maybe matters in different types of races or conditions i personally don,t rate the importance of it that highly.

at the moment conservative avereage of winning a 1000/1 multiple for me is around 25 times a year, £10 bets + 250k a year.
thats why do my follow lists, as proven last saturday 5 winners alone on that thread, payed 4500/1, thats before do my
form studying, lists generate extra winners for me all the time. was around 25000/1 including hot streak. one of these
days going to win one of those bets.

You will be lucky if you get them kind of odds up together in the one day on a couple of occasions throughout your lifetime,wish you luck with it.

He adds the highest official rating the sire achieved to the highest official rating the dam has achieved, that is the system.

eg. Sea the Stars 135 + Zarkava(127 from memory)

He then goes back through the pedigree and does this all the way along. I'm pretty sure that is what is happening here.

A complete waste of time,you should get a fair opinion on the breeding just by looking at the page.
Anyone that tells him otherwise is doing him no favours,would be much better off at least watching racing(which he admits he doesn't do).

I was saying a few weeks ago that it was time we could start backing the AOB colts first time out, Century reinforcing that there. A 2yo win is a huge thing for a stallion and with the number he has still to run(and they all could be anything as seen bu Magician last year) he is going to run out of races for them if they aren't going to win first time out. Obviously he could drag it out to the Dundalk AW season, but he never does that (not the right thing to do or be seen doing). I ain't that bothered if they are a little week in the betting.

no your wrong there. dont count the highest rating the sires achieved, count the highest rating the progeny achieved, subtle difference.
will be the judge to decide if this is a waste of time, from what ive already learned its been invaluable, remember started late this
year so was just completing my research. DALAKALA 924 that won on arc day was a group 2 winner in england. going to start watching races
next year just started reading andrew beyers 3 books, easy to understand and readable so far

Apologies roadrunner

NIGHT OF THUNDER 917, won today could be a group horse in the making, superbly bred horse by dubawi and galileo on the dam side

theres another winner i put on here NIGHT OF THUNDER