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08 Oct 13
19:29
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
Nothing to set the heart racing, but nonetheless two winners to be found. Went on hols last week, was delighted to find David Howell in, and subsequently win, a playoff on my arrival. The mojitos tasted all the nicer
. Took a view that the States were a terrible price at 1.26 last week, so gave a portion of the winnings back
.
Those at the head of the market appeal in both events this week, with a couple of big priced rags also catching the eye.
Francesco Molinari holed the winning putt for Europe on Sunday, and will surely approach this event, where he has twice finished runner up in the last 4 years, with huge confidence. In 2010 he shot 62 twice, but still contrived to lose, but it shows his affinity with the course, and I think he really should be favourite. Not a great year by any means for Molinari, he can put some gloss on it by taking this event. Maybe trying too hard has been a problem for him this year, but confidence is king in this game, and last weeks heroics can spur him on once more. 29 on here seems more than fair.
Shane Lowry has to be a huge danger, and I will back him, though I have still have slight reservations about his belief in himself to get the job done. His two wins having really been handed to him.On more than one occasion, plenty really, he has tore through the field on Saturday or Sunday, only to falter when a victory seemed on the cards. Hopefully memories from his successful assault here last year will help him over the line. 25 on here, not huge value I don't think, but seems sure to be involved.
Matteo Mannessero also performed reasonably well last week, finishing well with a defeat on Gallagher in the singles. He also has some recent form around here, finishing 12th last year, with a closing 65 vaulting him up the leaderboard. 40 seems a bit big on this huge talent, on a course that will not really tax his length.
I will back Tom Lewis if I can get matched at 65, but a couple of rags that catch the eye are Johan Edfors, Anthony Wall, and Pedro Figueiredo. Figueiredo is available at the ceiling price. Bit of a stab in the dark, but he does seem a player of considerable talent, numbering the Irish Amateur Open among his impressive amateur haul. He was invited to play here the last two years, and has shot under par every round. Its not inconceivable he may pop up on the leaderboard at some stage this week. At 1000-1, you don't have to pay much to find out!!
Stateside, its again the fancied players who are of most interest. How Billy Horschel is not a clear favourite is beyond me. A winner this year, he has been hugely consistent, producing many top tens in events of considerably better class than this mediocre event. Billy will surely be eyeing this as one he can pick off. After a slight lull for 6-8 weeks, he produced some top class stuff in the last two FedEx events, and comes here in fine form, and as the class act in the field, I would think 12-1 would be much more like his real price. Having backed Jonas Blixt in this when victorious last year, and also been on him for his win this year, I am loathe to leave him out. But at current prices I would much prefer Hideki Matsuyama. A future star of the game, he has been in hugely consistent form, finishing inside the top 21 in all of his last 9 outings. Competetive in more than one major this year, he again showed his comfortability at the top table last week in the Presidents Cup. Most of this field have no aspirations to being anywhere near as good as this lad is going to be. Not shy of the winning line, he may give Billy most to think about.
Having won in 2011, and producing a fine defence in finishing 11th last year, with current form not being bad, Bryce Molder deserves a look at 50. He clearly likes this event, and will have targeted it as one where he can be competitive, and wont be seeing it as an afterthought.
Mark Leishman is another has produced some quality efforts in distinguished class this year, and 48 surely underestimates his chance against a mostly second or third rate lot.
A couple of rags that catch the eye here, are Camillo Villegas 100, Angel Cabrera 90, Will Mckenzie 140, and Jerry Kelly at 220.
. Took a view that the States were a terrible price at 1.26 last week, so gave a portion of the winnings back.Those at the head of the market appeal in both events this week, with a couple of big priced rags also catching the eye.
Francesco Molinari holed the winning putt for Europe on Sunday, and will surely approach this event, where he has twice finished runner up in the last 4 years, with huge confidence. In 2010 he shot 62 twice, but still contrived to lose, but it shows his affinity with the course, and I think he really should be favourite. Not a great year by any means for Molinari, he can put some gloss on it by taking this event. Maybe trying too hard has been a problem for him this year, but confidence is king in this game, and last weeks heroics can spur him on once more. 29 on here seems more than fair.
Shane Lowry has to be a huge danger, and I will back him, though I have still have slight reservations about his belief in himself to get the job done. His two wins having really been handed to him.On more than one occasion, plenty really, he has tore through the field on Saturday or Sunday, only to falter when a victory seemed on the cards. Hopefully memories from his successful assault here last year will help him over the line. 25 on here, not huge value I don't think, but seems sure to be involved.
Matteo Mannessero also performed reasonably well last week, finishing well with a defeat on Gallagher in the singles. He also has some recent form around here, finishing 12th last year, with a closing 65 vaulting him up the leaderboard. 40 seems a bit big on this huge talent, on a course that will not really tax his length.
I will back Tom Lewis if I can get matched at 65, but a couple of rags that catch the eye are Johan Edfors, Anthony Wall, and Pedro Figueiredo. Figueiredo is available at the ceiling price. Bit of a stab in the dark, but he does seem a player of considerable talent, numbering the Irish Amateur Open among his impressive amateur haul. He was invited to play here the last two years, and has shot under par every round. Its not inconceivable he may pop up on the leaderboard at some stage this week. At 1000-1, you don't have to pay much to find out!!
Stateside, its again the fancied players who are of most interest. How Billy Horschel is not a clear favourite is beyond me. A winner this year, he has been hugely consistent, producing many top tens in events of considerably better class than this mediocre event. Billy will surely be eyeing this as one he can pick off. After a slight lull for 6-8 weeks, he produced some top class stuff in the last two FedEx events, and comes here in fine form, and as the class act in the field, I would think 12-1 would be much more like his real price. Having backed Jonas Blixt in this when victorious last year, and also been on him for his win this year, I am loathe to leave him out. But at current prices I would much prefer Hideki Matsuyama. A future star of the game, he has been in hugely consistent form, finishing inside the top 21 in all of his last 9 outings. Competetive in more than one major this year, he again showed his comfortability at the top table last week in the Presidents Cup. Most of this field have no aspirations to being anywhere near as good as this lad is going to be. Not shy of the winning line, he may give Billy most to think about.
Having won in 2011, and producing a fine defence in finishing 11th last year, with current form not being bad, Bryce Molder deserves a look at 50. He clearly likes this event, and will have targeted it as one where he can be competitive, and wont be seeing it as an afterthought.
Mark Leishman is another has produced some quality efforts in distinguished class this year, and 48 surely underestimates his chance against a mostly second or third rate lot.
A couple of rags that catch the eye here, are Camillo Villegas 100, Angel Cabrera 90, Will Mckenzie 140, and Jerry Kelly at 220.
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That's really interesting. Thanks and good luck with your bets.
Great write up as always call,well done with Howell didn't know you had him picked,going for two old pals of mine that I have done already during the year,1st in fry open Patrick Reed 40/1 e/w with powers 6 places,winner already this year,think with a few weeks break will be freshed up,just think a proven winner cant be left along at this price,and in the Portugal going for a player that's been abit disappointing the last few weeks Bello at 66/1,has had good form in in previous years in Portugal so giving him one more chance,and going to do a small e/w double aswell.best of luck with the bets this week lads
Went for Gallacher, Noren and Lima in my preview this week.
Gallacher has form here and on the right type of tracks. 6th last year despite putting terribly (31.8 putts per round) and if he improves this at all he has a chance.
Noren is incredibly frustrating but this is perfect course for him and after being the likes of 14/1 for similar events a few months ago, 50/1 is plenty big enough.
My piece on Lima is below - No question we are asking a lot for him to win, but he is not a bad player at all when he is playing near his best.
Jose Filipe Lima:
We were tempted to make Victor Dubuisson, but he carries too many risks after withdrawing recently from the Dunhill Championship and instead we are focusing on a rank outsider who could just have a very big week.
Jose Filipe Lima has not enjoyed a huge amount of consistent success on the European Tour since he first turned professional in 2002, but he has won a European Tour Title (St Omer Open in 2004) and has 3 Challenge Tour victories to his name. Each time however that he has earned full playing rights he has not delivered consistent performances. The last time was in 2010 after he won the Ecco Tour Championship in 2009 as part of 5 Top 10s on the Challenge Tour.
This year has seen a resurgence in form from Lima and he has posted 6 Top 10s this season including 9th in the co-sanctioned Madeira Islands Open. A previous 4th place in the Madeira Islands Open shows that he can really raise his game for his home events and breezy venues are no real concern.
Lima has not performed as well in this event, although 21st, 36th and 45th place finishes from 5 attempts is not a disaster. He arrives this year however in better form than he ever has with recent Top 3 placings in the Finnish Challenge and Rolex Trophy and in front of his home crowd he could just be a very big price this week.
He is a best price of 200/1 each way with **** although can be backed at 750/1 on Betfair for relatively small money. We will have a small interest each way at 200/1 but the 20/1 about a Top 10 finish with Sporting Bet is also of interest, as is the 11/2 on a Top 20 finish with Bet Victor and Paddy Power.
Gallacher has form here and on the right type of tracks. 6th last year despite putting terribly (31.8 putts per round) and if he improves this at all he has a chance.
Noren is incredibly frustrating but this is perfect course for him and after being the likes of 14/1 for similar events a few months ago, 50/1 is plenty big enough.
My piece on Lima is below - No question we are asking a lot for him to win, but he is not a bad player at all when he is playing near his best.
Jose Filipe Lima:
We were tempted to make Victor Dubuisson, but he carries too many risks after withdrawing recently from the Dunhill Championship and instead we are focusing on a rank outsider who could just have a very big week.
Jose Filipe Lima has not enjoyed a huge amount of consistent success on the European Tour since he first turned professional in 2002, but he has won a European Tour Title (St Omer Open in 2004) and has 3 Challenge Tour victories to his name. Each time however that he has earned full playing rights he has not delivered consistent performances. The last time was in 2010 after he won the Ecco Tour Championship in 2009 as part of 5 Top 10s on the Challenge Tour.
This year has seen a resurgence in form from Lima and he has posted 6 Top 10s this season including 9th in the co-sanctioned Madeira Islands Open. A previous 4th place in the Madeira Islands Open shows that he can really raise his game for his home events and breezy venues are no real concern.
Lima has not performed as well in this event, although 21st, 36th and 45th place finishes from 5 attempts is not a disaster. He arrives this year however in better form than he ever has with recent Top 3 placings in the Finnish Challenge and Rolex Trophy and in front of his home crowd he could just be a very big price this week.
He is a best price of 200/1 each way with **** although can be backed at 750/1 on Betfair for relatively small money. We will have a small interest each way at 200/1 but the 20/1 about a Top 10 finish with Sporting Bet is also of interest, as is the 11/2 on a Top 20 finish with Bet Victor and Paddy Power.
Not quite gone yet, Like Distant, I have S Gallacher on board but main man is Jamie Donaldson both excel on links time and again.
PGA is not as appealing as euro this week for a change, this tournament has history of throwing up maiden winners, Matsuyama might fit the bill but the price is awful at around 23's.
Best of luck.
PGA is not as appealing as euro this week for a change, this tournament has history of throwing up maiden winners, Matsuyama might fit the bill but the price is awful at around 23's.
Best of luck.
Best of luck with whatever is tearing you away from the golf DP.
I cant get over Molinaris price. I was all over him at 29, now he is 36. Only thing to do.....reload. Had good bet at 4 for top ten too.
. Had good bet at 4 for top ten too.
Will still be at the golf Callit, my main betting medium, work matters at present will tear me away for a while but not too long hopefully
Scores better than usual here, must be little wind, can't complain though, nice start from Jamie.
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