Irish Sports
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The final English Classic would appear to be wide open but the 14 1/2 Furlong trip on rain softened ground is going to take some getting.
I think (open to correction)only 2 runners in the field have won over further than 12 Furlongs.Great Hall has won a 14 furlong handicap and Leading light has won a Group 3 over 2 miles.
Excess Knowledge-is Likely to be near the top of the betting for this race in which John Gosden has an excellent recent record.He is still an exposed type and this sterner test of stamina is likely to bring out improvement in this Monsun colt who was probably unsuited by muddling pace in the Gordon stakes.
Galileo Rock-Placed in both Derbies,consistent and tough sort but has the ground gone against him??
Foundry-His run in the Great Voltigeur was very promising behind Telescope on only his second start.Sterner test of stamina should suit,has won on soft ground and is open to any amount of improvement.He may not necessarily be stable second string and has the assistance of Ryan Moore.
Talent-Ran deplorably in the Irish Oaks on ground that was faster than ideal and they went a very muddling pace.I am going to forgive her that run because I think her greatest asset is stamina as seen in a strongly run English Oaks on ground with a give.(though the form of the race hasn't worked out well even though the 3rd filly was impressive in a weak race during the week)
Leading Light-Plenty of more visually impressive types in the race but I think the conditions will suit him tomorrow.He has won a group 3 over 2 miles and is proven on soft ground.He idles in front and have a feeling there could be plenty left in the tank yet and will thrive on a stern test of stamina.
A race that's not really a betting medium for me but I have dutched Leading Light and Talent at 11/4.
I think (open to correction)only 2 runners in the field have won over further than 12 Furlongs.Great Hall has won a 14 furlong handicap and Leading light has won a Group 3 over 2 miles.
Excess Knowledge-is Likely to be near the top of the betting for this race in which John Gosden has an excellent recent record.He is still an exposed type and this sterner test of stamina is likely to bring out improvement in this Monsun colt who was probably unsuited by muddling pace in the Gordon stakes.
Galileo Rock-Placed in both Derbies,consistent and tough sort but has the ground gone against him??
Foundry-His run in the Great Voltigeur was very promising behind Telescope on only his second start.Sterner test of stamina should suit,has won on soft ground and is open to any amount of improvement.He may not necessarily be stable second string and has the assistance of Ryan Moore.
Talent-Ran deplorably in the Irish Oaks on ground that was faster than ideal and they went a very muddling pace.I am going to forgive her that run because I think her greatest asset is stamina as seen in a strongly run English Oaks on ground with a give.(though the form of the race hasn't worked out well even though the 3rd filly was impressive in a weak race during the week)
Leading Light-Plenty of more visually impressive types in the race but I think the conditions will suit him tomorrow.He has won a group 3 over 2 miles and is proven on soft ground.He idles in front and have a feeling there could be plenty left in the tank yet and will thrive on a stern test of stamina.
A race that's not really a betting medium for me but I have dutched Leading Light and Talent at 11/4.
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Correction-Excess Knowledge-Unexposed type
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Very good write up dj876 , always nice to see logic been applied to selections ..Good luck with that tomorrow...
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Good write up DJ,PP giving money back if 2nd to Leading light or Foundry to a ton.Did like Pat Shanahans quote with rank outsider(at 200/1) Ralston Road "will gallop for Ireland and is in super form" I admire his confidence (well behind leading light earlier in the season), Pat has probably suckered me into a token ew on him.
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Thats very interesting Pa , just might have my bet with them tomorrow in that race....It allows you a 3 bites at the cherry , never heard of money back with 2 horses been put up before ...
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you can have money back 2nd to anyone to 25 with sportsbook on here
Both offers worth taking up |
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is that paddies offer online only?
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Excess Knowledge for me.I like his profile and his trainer
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I would be thinking along those same lines G Hall ...I think its a great bet without 2 with powers ...Sure to be in the first 3 so massive e/w....
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ratings are the overall scores for the progeny from these pedigrees.
TALENT dam side 399 = 937 LIBERTARIAN dam side 386 = 924 CAP O'RUSHES dam side 384 = 922 GALILEO ROCK dam side 385 = 915 RALSTON ROAD dam side 403 = 914 FOUNDARY dam side 380 = 910 LEADING LIGHT dam side 381 = 907 HAVANA BEAT dam side 374 = 906 GREAT HALL dam side 379 = 892 SECRET NUMBER dam side 376 = 878 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE dam side 399 = 872 |
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Backed Excess Knowledge e/w @ 11/2 with powers ...Money back on win part of bet only for those interested w/o BOTH of APOBS....
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The special isn't equivalent to betting without the 2 AOB'S as you're suggesting.
If you finish third to the two AOB runners-you lose. Maybe you don't mean to be describing it as you are but the phrase betting without isn't accurate. |
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Of course you are correct dj876 ...If either of the AOBS runners wins and you finish second to it then and only then do you get paid...
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Its almost like a handicap with so many horses having beaten each other, couldn't have a strong opinion in this race, watching brief for me.
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Have to hard it to Coolmore ....
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Very good dj, hope you gave the books a 1-2,WD.
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Great and revealing thread.
Dj876 called the St Leger perfectly not unusual Rosdrunner46 put up an opinion before the race most unusual and even more unusual was the fact he is not nearly as good when he posts Pre race. |
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didnt tip anything in that race, obvious from the ratings that excess knowledge didnt have much of a chance,
interesting and good to see talent run so well, considering its easily the best rated horse in that race. also highlights the fact would of been the perfect bet in the oaks (being rated so highly) doubt any horse in the oaks was rated anywhere near 937. |
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You rated the winner seventh best but in fairness you still managed to after time the Oaks winner nearly three months after the event.
Read Dj876 analysis of the St Leger its logical and well thought out and done before the race,its almost irrelevant that he got every aspect of the race right. |
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roadrunner, how do you come up with the figure of 937 for Talent? Can you show me the calculations?
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dont read write ups, very seldom do. i havent rated any of these horses, counted up their progenys highest rated to get a rating.
TALENT / sire NEW APPROACH 129 dam PARK EXPRESS N/A - dams sire AHONOORA 130 / GALILEO 143 / SADLERS WELLS 136 = (NEW APPROACH)538 TALENT / dam PROWESS N/A - dams sire PEINTRE CELEBRE 126 / NUREYEV 137 / dams dam YAWL N/A sire RAINBOW QUEST 133 = 396 total pedigree score for TALENT is = 934 dont know if you can understand this all. just a counting system to get an idea of pedigrees value or rating. FWIW not aftertiming the oaks winner just showing that with this rating system that horse was top rated in that race. designed my own system of trying to give a value to a horse's pedigree, basically due to the info i can access for free. this rating doesnt include the distances in the pedigrees and a horse's overall profile. its basic starting point. HTH |
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with this basic counting system, possible to find all the classic prospects before they have had a run on the racetrack
 therefore gain an advantage in the antepost markets, have no doubt this simply designed system is most likely very accurate. you have drawn attention to leading light being rated 7th, well if you thought that had no chance according to these ratings, its becuase you didnt understand them, and assumed i had come up with these imaginary ratings myself through deduction. have explained below the simple counting system, used to form the overall pedigree value of a horse, completely free of charge. |
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2013 oaks pedigree ratings and finishing order.
1st TALENT 934 2nd SECRET GESTURE 916 3rd THE LARK 897 MOTH 874 LIBER NAUTICUS 906 MISS YOU TOO 920 BANOFEE 875 GERTRUDE VERSED 882 ROZ 932 SAY 920 MADAM DEFARGE 897 |
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So if you have a horse by a Northern Dancer sire out of a Danehill dam ,your ratings system will tell you that they're well bred.The information gathered by your simplistic ratings system can be gleaned by the majority on here by a cursory glance at his page.
It really is quite embarrassing that you have explained that ratings system and spend hours calculating rating figures from it. I didn't think it was possible but sadly you're regressing. |
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your idiot, thats why your always trying to discredit any thing i mention. you choose the races, will see how good you,
got no chance against me. thats right its very simple system thats why explained it for all to see on here. look forward to putting you in your place, next week when you find some good bets, challenge you ****g fool |
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You'r not capable of debate so resort to infantile name calling,keyboard warrior.
How's your uncle Gerard Butler??Do ya remember stating that when you came on here first and were attempting to charge for tips??. Have your pocket money on ON The Way Out each way in the 5.10 Listowel at 12.0. |
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You're
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didnt think so, you know you cant read the formbook as good as me, bottling out of a challenge?, FWIW you started the name calling
on previuos threads. |
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Well played dj, the winner has a lovely blend of pace and stamina, he should have a bright future. I think Foundry is probably the one to take out of it, ran a super race for one so inexperienced, the Godolphin horse that finished just in front of him, secret number I think, looks to crying out for a step up in trip now to me and might be a nice Cup horse next year, he was off the bridle miles out and finished pretty well.
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I think you are on to something there roadrunner. Thanks for the calculations, there may be some merit in your ratings but I cant see it.
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going to rate all the group races in england this year 2013 (147 races), once i have all the scores for the sires will be a lot easier. basically a number crunching system, soon will have all the sires score's indexed, then just a case of adding up the
dam side to get the supposed (pedigree value of a horse) not for everyday races, group pattern races only. QATAR BLOODSTOCK DAHLIA STAKES FILLIES & MARES 1st dank 910 2nd chigun 910 3rd thistle bird 827 banu wu 885 shirocco star 889 boogna roogeta 876 semayyel 884 |
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The praise was deserved as the opening post is excellent but surely that shows how fair I am.
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The praise was deserved as the opening post is excellent but surely that shows how fair I am.
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Don't be soft now lad,your opinions soon altered when you realised I wasn't a yes man and had little tolerance for some of the imbeciles on here.
You to a great extent are responsible for the current state of the forum,you must read it sometimes and go oh sh1t I have to go along with this Plonker. |
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You are entitled to change opinions.
Why call people imbeciles ? Why so intolerant ? I don't mind anyone disagreeing with my opinions but you object to any opinion other than your own. If you think the forum is in a terrible state,do something about it rather than whine,post some of your opinions and your betting advice. |