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How could anybody back it,there are loads of reasons to oppose it and i genuinely cant believe this hype. I understand laying horses isnt easy but if you dont lay this,then you should never lay an other horse in my humble opinion.
Here are some of my reasons for opposing it.
1. Ground doubt
2. Tonguestrap
3. Blinkers
4. American jockey
5. Travelling
6. Possible Draw Difficulty
7.Straight mile
8. All opposition trying
9. Meydan form
10. Overall form not that good
Well thats my reading of it anyway,maybe it will win but i doubt it very much.
Here are some of my reasons for opposing it.
1. Ground doubt
2. Tonguestrap
3. Blinkers
4. American jockey
5. Travelling
6. Possible Draw Difficulty
7.Straight mile
8. All opposition trying
9. Meydan form
10. Overall form not that good
Well thats my reading of it anyway,maybe it will win but i doubt it very much.
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Replies: 24
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Has won on turf before.
Why is a Tonguestrap a worry? Almost all American horses wear blinkers. plenty of oversees horses have won at Ascot. No one knows where the draw bias is as yet. Straight mile,Scraping the barrell there. All opposition trying,Thats fairly obvious,Have they not tried against him in his previous races? Nothing wrong with his Meydan form,Or any of his previous form for that matter. |
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At the price a definite lay.
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Cheltenham Roar,if you think that the straight mile is no issue,nor the application of a tonguestrap,then i think we are on a different wavelength. He will have never have run on this kind of turf either.
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Turf is turf,unless its like a bog which today wont be,He's won on Dirt,Turf and polytrack,
anyway i wont be backing him,just playing devils advocate, im happy going with Declaration of war each way. |
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By some way the best horse in the race - still a value bet imho at Evs
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Trainer is happy with the ground and has been in Lambourn for the last 3 weeks.
Don,t think the opposition is great myself Jimeen, Declaration of War 2 lengths ahead of Bold Thady Quill and then getting stuffed by Farhh, Elusive Kate over 6l behind Excelebration while Animal Kingdom was 2l ahead of him.Hard to back them 2 against him with much confidence, maybe the race might throw up a shock result with a big price, not sure i,d lay him but GL |
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Pa Lapsy,do you honestly think that Excelebration was at his best on firm ground in that dog track in America. If Excelebration was in this it would win alone.
Cheltenham roar,turf in the states is akin to the runway at dublin airport,this is completely different. |
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jimeen makes valid points, on the flipside those that are rigid followers of ORs will view him as a point and steer.
one point that is very relevant and will certainly come into play at this fixture given the events of late, is whether or not foreign handlers take a risk on medication. I would be certain that this horse has run with the aid of medication at home, and one would now have to question the whole system of testing in the UAE. it could be the case that Animal Kingdom is immense when fuel propelled, rather ordinary without. this is a very poor group 1, the temptation is to lay. |
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I don,t Jimeen, still it is there and was an unlucky run by Animal Kingdom, he was powering away from him once clear.Dog track is fair enough, not sure about firm ground excuse for Excelebration as he handled it well in his first few races.Leaves the question whether you would think Excelebration underperformed by 8L+ that night to think Elusive Kate would beat him, i don,t think it does, though straight mile
and your other factors might. Anyway its nothing more than a counter argument,gl. |
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Keen Leader,was just watching a guy from timeform on ATR and he is saying that Animal Kingdom has very little in hand on their ratings,certainly not enough to be as short as he is. I didnt want to make that point regarding the medication,because i think i read somewhere where this horse is supposed to run fuel free. Even reading that i was saying to myself,drug free my whole. The jockey could be a huge liability here too,thats much more important than people think. The one worrying thing and again im in agreement,its a poor renewal but still though win or lose i would consider this the worst even money shot i can remember,with the amount of complete unknowns its a stonking lay.
Lastly they showed a clip of him working with some horse at wherever he is being stabled in England,now i know not the weights or the other horse involved,but if it wasnt Shea Shea in receipt of a stone id say it was a very laboured effort. |
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won once out of 4 times on turf,is its best trip over a mile?the maydan form dosent exactly scream super star , for me this is a no brainer at the price and have it the lay button.
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Wd jimeen shocking run from AK, hope you got the winner as well.
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Thanks for the money Pa
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hype dosent win races but gives false prices.
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Wd with your 4/6 winner Rocket,race i left alone and only bets i did are on the Royal Ascot thread.
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Pa that any man who made as many posts as you did would then claim after it loses did not have a large sum on him, anyway i won't say a word bar unlucky mate and remember you have another 29 races left to get your money back, ask King for some hints or tips.
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the rocket /king axis of evil are trying their best to get everyone..there seems to be a 2 min lapse from one comment to the other backing him up(i presume i got him blocked)pa is a decent logical contributer.he doesnt deserve any crap thrown at him
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Rocket if you want to score points against me fair enough, Good thread started by the OP and doesn,t deserve anything else on it but congrats to him.
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shush!the snitch kav has arrived!
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Not trying to score points at all against you pa mate. Stop being so defensive.
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Good call Jimeen . Big money at the death for the winner , thought it had lost a leg in the run up to the start when it hit 12.5 .
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Very good shout Jimeen, sound reasoning and never in doubt after a furlong.
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A quite brilliant thread with some excellent follow up posts.
A well reasoned opening post from Jimeen with fortright views,a good contribution from CheltenhamRoar where he first played devils advocate thus extending the debate but then advised an each way punt on the winner. Keen Leader weighed in with the trump card the medication angle,there is some friction between him and Jimeen but together they put up the best argument I have seen for a lay for a long long time. I always like to lay horses coming off medication but in this instance I stalled my lay til the St James Palace Stakes to attack my nemesis again,dear oh dear. |