Going At Leopardstown

looks tough there today Wildman?..i notice halford runs benson 8.30 I backed it lto but it was a n/r so I may try again I,d be grateful for others opinions on the race..

Stable in form,jockey in form and Bensoon won in Gowran despite needing the run,don't think the extra six pound will stop him.

thanks Wildman..appreciate your thoughts

Anyone else think Tobann was a big eye catcher behind Reply at Naas last time out? A seven length winner on soft at Gowran in April . likely to have lots of cut tonight despite going description of good to firm. Fav for tonight Tickled Pink well beaten on G/S at york lto and seems much better on good or faster.  Other English raider Place In My Heart more of a five furlong specialist. Money for Bolgers this morning and probably still a decent price at about 9/1.

Tickled Pink is ground dependant which is why I would love to know whether its raining up there or not and if we can believe the forecast going.

Tobann too is ground dependant by Teofilio he certainly came from an impossible position at Naas,he picked up well but then lugged left towards the rail and Reply he then jinked which stopped his run,he has a great draw in 2 alongside Tickled Pink in 1.The run of Reply in the preceding Ballycorus Stakes will be a pointer to Tobann.

I will state it again the most important part of today's racing is the ground.

TREAD CAREFULLY TONY57 WITH BENSOON IT WAS AN ADVANTAGE TO HAVE A LOW DRAW AT GOWRAN A FORTNIGHT AGO AND AS WMFB SAYS GROUMD IS IMPORTANT AS HAVING A LOW ON SLOW IS NOT AN ADVANTAGE AT LEOPARDSTOWN

thanks dec,..never took the draw into consideration..its a weakness in my betting on the flat I don't pay enough attention to draw bias..

It's a ten furlong race so draw not nearly as important,Bensoon is a hold up horse so he is not affected by the draw either way.

'twas no advantage for Bensoon to be drawn lower at Gowran as they dropped him out.

I can pass on a word for balding runner in 2.50 @4/1,newbury..has come on a ton for its debut ..e/w bet to nothing imo..this looks a typical tough maiden for the course so small bets..

Tony 57,i'm all for people putting up opinions and win or lose i dont see any problems with either,but not for the first time you post a horse with little or no reasoning for it. The other day it was a Meade newcomer,today its an e/w bet to nothing,but only for a small bet. Its either an e/w bet to nothing or its not. When you say that you can pass on word for this,who's the word from ?,and how do they know it has come on a ton for its debut?.
Just had a look at the race and with no knowledge of the horse or the opposition,it doesnt strike me as being an ew bet to nothing. It has never run on grass,its a fillies race,and it isnt guaranteed to stay or go on the ground. Best of luck with your horse but i think id need a little bit more information to invest myself.

No medals for these but Bracelet in the first was pitched in at the deep end in Naas,she was hampered at the start drawn widest of all but still ran well enough,the extra furlong will also suit.
Edith Cowan was unlucky last time out at Leopardstown,she got boxed in on the inside and had to sit and suffer while both Knights Templar and Truly Genius flashed by but once Edith Cowan got out she fairly flew,would be nice to see young Dawson ride a winner after all his travails.

Edith Cowan was very eyecatching last time(Fran) alright Wildman,though a little short at 2/1 best, she looks the likely winner on a career low mark.

WILDMAN AGREE NOT NEARLY AS IMPORTANT IF DROPPED OUT BUT LAST RACE AT GOWRAN WAS EASIER TO DROP OUT FROM ITS INSIDE DRAW SO HOLDS SOME IMPORTANCE HOPEFULLY I'VE READ UR POST RIGHT

Jimeen your like a non trier you could say lots about today's racing at Leopardstown but you only give poor old Tony57 a belt,I would genuinely like to hear some of your views on tonight's racing especially an update on the going.

Its a good job Jim did pick a few holes in Tonys tip because i for one would have fell for it.....

Come on By Purpose you are far too wide for that.

Wildmanfromborneo,i honestly dont know the going just yet,and id never tip horses on this unless i was already on myself. The going is vital as is the market in the early races. Ive had no bet just yet, but at the minute i can see myself backing bracelet and club wexford,but that is very much open to change.

hang on jim,..I only got a tex myself 5 mins before I posted..i got the info from a friend of mine who has a share in ahorse at the yard....but I don't see why I should have to give the were and the when..the horse was too keen imo but it was backed..into 11/4,,

Wildman..may I ask why purpose..is far to wide?..

A fair and truthful answer and I understand your constraints.

I would worry about Club Wexfords attitude as he seems reluctant plus I don't like Lawman as a sire.

Tickled Pink and Reply or betting propositions on good ground or better but are lays on any worse than good,the problem here is you can't really trust the going updates and you nearly have to wait for the first race to be run so the jockeys will tell them.

Tony57 its not meant as an insult to anyone but those that would back a horse just on someone's say so without doing their own form to me is not wide,By Purpose can be a prickly individual but appears to me reticent but battle hardened.

Borneo
   Wish you were right about the wide comment......No im sorry to have to say i wouid a loser at this game,have been all my punting life.

fair enough Wildman..

Too keen today Tony,it will win when it learns to drop the bit,fancy Fiesolana e/w in the 19.30,unexposed and I hope it handles the drop back in trip.

agreed punchestown..I was told they expected it to go close but upped in trip never stayed cos as you say too keen..disappointing tho it must be said..

Great to have an excuse.At least you will get it back the next day...As of 16.10 on HRI website ground now gd/yld at Leop..

So where's everyone ?

Bracelet and Club Wexford the 2 good things on the card obliged, nicely.

^^The Begrudgers only come out when they get beat.

I have been using the new tracker on the RP site and have a few out tonight.

Here's my tuppenceworth and any E&OE as I am a mere amateur!

Fiesolana – 7.30 6f 3yo+ Ballyogan G3 – 10/1 this morning, now 16/1 with boyles

In the tracker following a good 2nd to Stuccodor in a 7f rated race when we were @ Tipperary in early May and did us a great turn when winning the Premier Handicap @ 7/1 on the 2,000 Saturday at the Curragh a few weeks ago – that was over 8f on GF, so there has to be doubts about this step back in trip – on the plus side, she usually leads or is up with the pace and might be able to nick a win or a place being ridden that way tonight – on a negative, McDonogh is 0-34 for the trainer in the last 5 seasons! – Maybe connections would like to get her mark down a little, so that they can target more big-pot handicaps over the summer?
RP comment for tonight:
Has quickly made up into a useful performer in just two starts for her current trainer, winning a valuable 8f handicap at the Curragh last time; has place claims on form, but this shorter trip is far from certain to suit.

No bet

Hanky Panky – 7.30 6f 3yo+ Ballyogan G3 – currently 7/1
Was flagged up on the 15th of May before winning her maiden at Naas over 8f on y/s – she then ran in the Irish 1,000 coming 7th of 15, beaten just over 5ls
She’s very well bred, but on breeding I’d have doubts about the drop back in trip – Galileo has a very low strike rate for 5-6f progeny (about 10%), but the few that have won have included Rahy mares, so maybe that’s what has encouraged connections to drop her back in trip – but major doubts remain! Further evidence of the uncertainty over her trip is that she holds 4 entries between now and the end of July over 7f, 8f (x2) & 10f – I’d wait to see her back over a longer trip.
RP comment for tonight:
Improved as hoped for firmer ground when finishing seventh in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time; this notable drop in trip isn´t sure to suit, but she has to be considered.

No bet

Fancy Hanky panky e/w here,Thought she ran a nice race in the Guineas.

Hoping the step back in trip is a positive,O'Brien to make all.

well done w/w/web.intresting ..lovely price.i played it ew and bkd hanky also ew..lost at start with him

Think it's fair to say Hanky panky needs a mile plus on that evidence.

yea.messed up start though and had to be ridden wide and started racing too soon.

Think I read somewhere that Hanky Panky lacks physical scope Chelts so maybe she might be one to be wary of as the year progresses. Milers in Europe are a different class to the sprinters and I think she'd struggle there.

willie mc creery a useful midfielder for kildare in his day.......

Fiesolana did that well, delighted for connections made my stag Guineas weekend!
BTW I mixed up McDonogh & O'Donoghue!!

When I was looking at these last night, I was basing the going on GF, obviously that has changed

Another one I stuck in the tracker:

Abbey Vale – 8.30 10f 3yo+ Handicap (sort of rated 75-95??) – 6/1 this morning
Went in the tracker following a fine seasonal reappearance at Gowran 2 weeks ago over 9f on GF in a 3yo Handicap (sort of rated 70-90??), beaten a nose @ 7/1

RP Analysis of that race:
Abbey Vale had every chance and ran a blinder for a horse having his first run for almost eight months. Tucked in behind horses, he couldn´t get a clear initial run and had to switch around horses to mount his challenge. He got there with every chance and definitely got his nose in front inside the last. It was simply a case of running into a good one. There should be plenty to look forward to.

The winner of that race (Seussical) ran very well in a listed race at the weekend off a mark of 93 and is now rated 102

After his maiden win at the back end of last season, his trainer said:
05Oct12 Dundalk (AW)   ( 8 St ,RPR77 )
He was really a maiden winner in waiting. That´s probably it for him this season and he should make a nice mile-and-a-quarter horse next year - Ger Lyons, trainer

He’s by Moss Vale, who was a sprint king and therefore the stamina for 10f must be coming from the dam side (she was unraced)
He’s the only 3yo in the race and so has the older horses to contend with, but may be better than his mark of 85

Jockey is 0-11 for the trainer this season

RP comment for tonight:
Ended a six-race juvenile campaign with a win over 1m at Dundalk; one pound out of the handicap here, but rider claims a useful 3lb, and he looks the one to beat having lost out narrowly to subsequent Listed-placed Seussical over 1m1f at Gowran on his recent seasonal debut.

No bet

Good thread and read with a few winners thrown in as well. Fair play to ye.

3 runners happen to be in the 9.00

Henry Higgins – 9.00 10f for 3yos Handicap (sort of 47-75) – 9/1 this morning
He went in the tracker following seasonal reappearance at Gowran at the beginning of April, coming 4th of 9 over 8f on good @ 15/2
Analysis that day:
Henry Higgins is a horse worth keeping an eye on. He can improve over further and ran a pleasing race on his first run since September, looking a threat around two furlongs out.
I backed him the Saturday of the 2,000 guineas in a hot handicap over 8f on GF, but he finished 8th of 12 (beaten under 5ls) – that was sort of a 70-90 handicap, so he had horses rated in the 80’s all ahead of him
The trainer enjoys plots and gambles and from the 13 jockeys that have ridden for him so far this season, only one has won on his horses: Mr Fran Berry – he’s 5-27 = 19%
Berry is on tonight not having ridden the horse since August of last year and that would be a sneaky pointer to me.
The horse is entered for a 8f 3yo handicap at the track next weekend, but it’s a better class of race!
He was unsold as a yearling (guided at 44,000 guineas) & O’Brien tried to sell him last October, but he was withdrawn – the owning syndicate have 4 other horses with O’Brien to have seen the track this year and none have won yet from 12 runs between the 5 horses!
Don’t be surprised to see this run well tonight, especially if there's money for him!

small e/w if backed

Stephen Hero – 9.00 10f for 3yos Handicap (sort of 47-75) – 5/1 this morning
Has been in the tracker since the middle of May and was noted on the 17th of May before becoming a non-runner:
Write up on the 17th of May before being withdrawn at Wexford:

Now a non-runner, but I’ll keep it here for next time out!!
Stephen Hero – 3.20 @ Wexford (forecast is Good) in a 3yo 47-65 Handicap
Somewhat similar race profile to Las Encinas in that his 3 maidens were out the back @ 25/1, 20/1 & 50/1 – given a generous mark of 47. Then he turned up at Naas @ 20/1 during the week in the same race as Las Encinas above.
Comment from that race:
Stephen Hero, making his handicap debut after three ordinary efforts, caught the eye, racing in rear until making headway from two furlongs out and finishing well.
Also holds an entry for Clonmel next Thursday in a 3yo 47-65 H’cap

Duly won that 10f Clonmel handicap and the RP analysis said:
A professional performance here from STEPHEN HERO and while everything fell right he looks likely to improve.
His rider used his inside draw to full advantage, hugging the inside rail and racing prominently, handling the downhill run to the straight very well and despite edging slightly off the rail in the straight he ran to the line. He´s no better than an ordinary handicapper in all likelihood but he should be one to pay his way over this sort of trip and ground.

He just got the mandatory 6lb rise, but in winning that race he beat a Jim Bolger horse Sceilg who was rated 13lbs higher but had a 10lb claimer on board, so the selection was only getting 3lbs from the Bolger horse – the Bolger horse was given 5lbs for that run and came 2nd over 10f on GF (in a 3yo 50-80) to an Aidan O’Brien horse [League of Nations] rated 79 that day (now reassessed to 87)

The 4th from the Clonmel win Melanippe has won twice since over 12f off 48 & 57
Sweet Refusal (below) was 3rd in the clonmel race

The trainer & owner had a full sister (also home bred) to this lad called Flowers of Spring and she was pretty smart winning 5 times from 12 races – she won handicaps off 61, 78, 82, 94 and finally a G3 off 97, amassing winnings of over €100k – the wins were over 9-12f on soft-good ground (trainer had doubts about fast ground for her, but the brother seems to hold no fears on that front)

So when you look at the sister and the form of the Clonmel win, the RP comments about him being an ordinary handicapper might turn out to be silly!!
RP comment for tonight:
Shaped well on his handicap debut at Naas and built on that when winning a 10f contest at Clonmel last time, for all that he was fortunate on the day as the second and third home were both unlucky; a 6 lb rise is plenty in the circumstances and he will need to improve again.

e/w back

Sweet Refusal – 9.00 10f for 3yos Handicap (sort of 47-75) – 11/1 this morning
Write up on the 17th of May before being withdrawn at Wexford
Sweet Refusal – 3.20 @ Wexford (forecast is Good) in a 3yo 47-65 Handicap
Here’s another one who had 3 ‘easy’ runs in 3 maidens last year over 6f (twice) and 8f (once) @ odds of 25/1, 50/1 & 33/1 – all out the back – given a generous mark of 50
Went in the tracker on the back of a ‘big’ run in a 11f 3yo 47-70 handicap @ Limerick on sft-hvy 2 weeks ago, where she came 2nd @ 20/1 and split 2 horses rated 11lbs higher than her!!
Comment from that race:
Sweet Refusal ran a very positive race on her return to action. Held up, she made her ground on the inner in the straight and got close enough to have every chance if she was good enough. The winner was always just holding her. She´s well capable of winning a handicap off this mark if this is any guide.
Also holds an entry for Clonmel next Thursday in a 3yo 47-65 H’cap
Might not run – no jockey booked!

This one has become frustrating, it did run that 12f race at Wexford coming 4th:
Sweet Refusal did best of those who tried to come late with their challenges and didn´t enjoy the clearest of passages, so his effort can be upgraded.

She then ran in the Clonmel race won by Stephen Hero finishing a disappointing 3rd
Not for the first time this season Sweet Refusal was on the inside rail with nowhere to go at a vital stage. Getting closer coming down the hill, she was squeezed for room and momentum in the straight, although when getting room on the inner one could argue she had every chance. She deserves a change of luck but it doesn´t seem to be that straightforward.

She then ran in the tougher 3yo handicap won by League of Nations (Sceilg 2nd) mentioned above where she was 8th of 13 (10GF)
She has had a full brother trained by Mark Johnston in Eng, he raced only 9 times, only managing to win his maiden on his 3rd race ever – that win was over 7f on good & Johnston kept him at 7 & 8f after that – he got a rating of 88 for winning the maiden by 6ls and was probably too high in the handicap to win thereafter
It may be that he wants a 7/8f trip in a 47-70 handicap!
RP comment for tonight:
Has enjoyed precious little luck this season and is undoubtedly capable of winning when things do drop right for her; conditions will suit and she shouldn´t be ruled out.

No bet

Not one negative post and winners galore,the forum at its best.

The ground was the vital factor and neither Tickled Pink or Reply handled it.

They must have watered the inside part of the track only as the ones that went wide had a huge advantage,Leitir Mor was first to take advantage of this,Fiesolana did the opposite went up the inside but still won,this was some performance when you consider he ran in the worst of the ground,the rattling finish of Hanky Panky was in my opinion due to her hitting the good ground.

The last race best illustrated the track bias ground wise,Henry Higgins was out the back way off the pace but found the good ground and flew home,the favourite Stephen Hero went up the rail and straight into the worse of the ground,forgive him that run.

Tony57 fancied Bensoon but this lad got a rare poor ride from Shane Foley,this is a good ground horse yet he hugged the rail throughout and ran into the worst of the ground,forgive him that run.

Good thread,WD Wildman and Jimeen.Bracelet was hammered and she was an impressive winner matched @ 3.0 in running