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to date he has trained 137 jump winners this season.
taking a brief look, there appears to be circa 47 jump fixtures until the season ends at the punchestown festival.
surely the big aim now must be 200 winners. as he monopolises most cards, an average of 3 winners for every 2 meetings is within range. i have heard no one mention this potential target.
the downside for punters is the closer he gets to it, the majority of his runners will be going off at very tight odds.
i wonder would pricing statisticians/actuaries at tallafornia or laddies or other, be prepared to offer odds on the 200 winners being reached. punting it at perhaps 5/4 may be a safe option for your pocket rather than falling for a few shorties that get turned over close to the record.
anyone want to price the outcome?.
taking a brief look, there appears to be circa 47 jump fixtures until the season ends at the punchestown festival.
surely the big aim now must be 200 winners. as he monopolises most cards, an average of 3 winners for every 2 meetings is within range. i have heard no one mention this potential target.
the downside for punters is the closer he gets to it, the majority of his runners will be going off at very tight odds.
i wonder would pricing statisticians/actuaries at tallafornia or laddies or other, be prepared to offer odds on the 200 winners being reached. punting it at perhaps 5/4 may be a safe option for your pocket rather than falling for a few shorties that get turned over close to the record.
anyone want to price the outcome?.
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Replies: 47
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Is it really Willie or is it the horses ability?
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so 47 jumps fictures at say an average of 2 odds on shots a meeting, should make it without breaking sweat.
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thats 2 odds on winners, he'd often have half the card odds on.
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The domination of this years season by Mullins is not good for the game. The mount of cards with strings of long odds on shots has certainly stopped me going racing . What has happens to Meade recently ,very few runners. Likewise DeBromhead. Does Paul Nolan still train horses?. Sg. To me everything is down to the ability of the horse but Mullins is able to get the best out of them.
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The man is an absolute genius a cursory review of horses that have been transferred to him will show you that.
The purchase of Moyle Park seems to be a new development and a worrying one for all the other trainers. Despite some other threads of mine his is not a gambling stable and he rarely tries to set one up for a handicap,all his recent handicap wins have been with horses he has received from other trainers running off their original marks. |
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Whilst his dominance this season may not be good for racing its certainly is IMO from a punting point of view. His horses can be overbet and he has had a lot of odds on shots beating in maiden hurdles, chases etc
The thing is punters seem to thinks everything he runs is a champion and it priced accordingly but if you can identify the right ones to back against(EW i would suggest) there a few bob to be made |
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last sunday at leopardstown he had 4 odds on shots , that cant be good for racing ,as santry said , i had free entry to leopardstown on sunday but decided against going along , and i love my racing ..still its not willies fault , i spoke to him recently about same , he also feels certain horses of his are over bet...
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You and Willie are BFFs these day workrider. Do you know him well?
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* days
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I THINK 4/5 to get to the 200 winners is about right KL. .. i cant see the bookies giving odds against..i must make a few inquiries as to the Availity of a very interesting bet..an average of 3 winners for every 2 meetings is well within range. PS Itake it you refer to irish racecourse winners only K.L?
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no he was kind enough to speak to me as we both made our way to the stands recently , in the 90s i tried to buy a horse off him but he wanted to much money ...so no i dont really know the man ..
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First instinct was WP would find it tough enough with so many of his string being Cheltenham bound,then he had 7 different horses entered in todays abandoned Thurles 2 maiden hurdles and 4 in the bumper.So even still he looks to have plenty of ammo for probably the easier of races to win.Have to think it would be odds on as well.Weather might in the past have been a saviour to the layer, they just seem to be rescheduled nowadays though.
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he has loads of horses still to run?..some are at tracys..hes waiting for better ground for some..as i suppose are a lot of trainers..but the man is a monster in the training ranks..he simply is the best the is..both sides of the water imo...
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agree with you tony.one only has to look at the improvement he gets from many horses he gets who were with other trainers.immediate response is one that springs to mind...i know ricci has an unlimited budget he can improve horses stones.the best nh trainer in the world without doubt
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i made a few inquiries and as far as i can see no bookie has a book on this bet,,,i feel if willie is any way close to the 200 mark nearing the end of the season he might make a bold bid to get it[although he may not admit it at the time
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If memory serves me right Barney Curley trained 12 winners in a 3 month period with a very small team of moderate horses. He backed himself to do
so at around 2/1. If WM aspired to reach that target he needs to train 63 winners with a stable full of talented horses. In the same way he got Patrick over the line with his recent record I have no doubt he would achieve the 200 winners target. However if the bet became available I doubt any bookie would lay you two bananas to one ON especially the entertainment company in Tallaght. |
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Jimmy Swan scenario was similar to Barneys.
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Improvement? give us some examples that can stand the closest scrutiny Kavvie?
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Thousand stars
Abbey lane Immediate response Vast consumption Bundle of fun Prince de Bauchene Felix Yonger |
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Howard Johnsons as some of the above a good example SG
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were most of them trained in France? I haven't looked yet, will any of those horses proove conclusively that Wille Mullins has some sort of magic touch or just another horse trainer?
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None of them were trained in France,lazy response Silver G for such a diligent forumite.
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Thousand Stars is ex french is it not dj, not been smart dj?. Havent checked yet but I guarantee Mullins done nothing much more than any other trainer would do, ie get them fit, if they're not good enough? good chance they won't win , because slow horses still go slow!
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First 5 runs for Lar Byrne ,silver g
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im surprised at you silver..i had you down as an informed,if a bit cross ,contributor.how many moderate low to middle class handicap hurdlers has he got and improved stones?specially in the period april to september?lots over he years...check out how many have ran up sequences..
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He won the French champion hurdle twice trained by Willie. You are showing yourself up here Silver
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French trained on the flat winning 2/20
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French trained on the flat winning 2/20
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French trained on the flat winning 2/20
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SG , Thousand Stars is French bred but never ran there.He ran twelve times for his former trainer , the last of which was getting beaten off a handicap mark of 109. Two months later he made his debut for Mullins in a handicap at Naas ( Oct 09 ) and five runs later he was third to Hurricane Fly in the Punch Champion Hurdle having improved (officially ) 4 stone in the interim . Which part of his profile does not impress you re WP Mullins ?
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Thanks for that correction SM,memory isn't what it used to be.
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Are we talking about the same thousand stars here guys?
Kavvie, nothing personal, I don't believe that either Mullins or O'Brien are doing something revolutionary?. |
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i remember backing it in a h/cap at naas carrying around 10..10...hacked up...yeah some horse silvergreaser....
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beroni and our monty would be 2 more examples. Inish Island is a current inmate who has improved greatly for the move to WPM and if left on the same mark as his last run is one well handicapped horse.
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without seeming to throw a spanner in the works but given willie is a great trainer etc...
it could be that he inherited these horses from other trainers who have done all the spade work and who with a bit of patience could have done just as good a job. its a fact that national hunt horses thrive and improve with age so willies magic touch might not be all it seems. |
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http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=660883#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form
Thousand Stars did run quite a numbers of times on the flat in France and had plenty of chances over hurdles here when traned by Lar Byrne. Was rated 107 when Willie Mullins got him and now rated 163 so is definitely a very good advert for his training skills. |
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Suppose there is an example of the reverse today ie a horse leaving Mullins and seeing how they get on with a different trainer.
Morning Royalty had 6 bumper starts for W P and 1 win,James Moffatt has managed 2 nov hur wins from 3 starts with him,admittedly most likely weaker opposition than on these shores.Today probably would be his biggest test but up to this point Mr Moffatt is doing well with the ex Mullins horse. |
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a friend of mine had a share in a horse with him , it won a bumper and a hurdle , they took it away awhile back ..he said they were never told to back it when it won ....maybe that's the down side of his operation ..he has so many horses its impossible to know about everyone of them ...i'd imagine they have a grade one batch and a grade two batch , i wonder if anyone else looks after the grade two batch....
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workrider you hit the nail on the head!..i found you never get told when to back his horses..wether your a owner or not..but owners should get told..its always well he may need it or were worried about this or that..very rare he says this will win..as someone who had share of a leased horse with him it was frustrating trying to get any info out of the place...and that go,s for other owners i know still there...i think a lot just respect the guys a winner..but if you like a punt..its a waste of time imo..
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