The Handicapper

If Quartetto and Romanesco both win tomorrow I think I'll have to raise the white flag!!

We have been spoiled by horses being two and three stone well in so not as confident as in the other cases but they are still well in,ten pounds is good but not hurled in,I will back the two of them but for smaller stakes.

Wildman, I noticed Romanesco was 14lb well in today compared to his chase mark and runs a stinker, I'd be enclined to put that down to the sleeveen trainer involved rather than its revert to the smaller obstacles, won a novice h/cap hurdle at Perth in Sept.

Ran a stinker when fav at Navan before running a blinder to finish r/up to Colbert Station in the Paddy Power at xmas.
I notice the horse holds an entry in a class 3 h/cap chase at Catterick on Monday, whether he takes up the entry I'm not sure?, but it will be interesting to see how he performs if he does?.

Quartetto was 15lbs lower over hurdles than fences as well today and got beaten a HD, they don't always translate the improvement they have shown over fences back over hurdles hence the 2 different marks

Romanesco was 19lbs well in compared to his chase mark.His run was too bad to be true.I thought it was an unusual purchase by Gigginstown.I would imagine a handicap chase at the festival was the aim hence the entry at Catterick.They would be keen to see what mark he gets over there.I think Fahamore was entered in Musselburgh last Sunday with a similar purpose in mind.

Romanesco - respiratory tract infection

Quartetto - simply a pig who didn't want to win [that one is my opinion ]

Could be right tolmi, makes a lot of sense.

Premier, at least Quartetto was very competitive, Elliots could barely raise a gallop, I'm sure those people who took the short odds were blissfully unaware that they were going to be well and truely shafted today.
Not exactly very strong in the market either for a horse so well in.

Oh here we go again this mysterious respiratory infection has surfaced again, only ever seems to effect these hot favs?, was it Mullins Champagne Fever who somehow managed to contact it as well.

theres nothing mysterious about that, it often happens.
you would have to scope beforehand to find out and you cant blame trainers for not doing that as i believe it can make a horses throat quite sore and i suppose if that happens could also bring on an infection.

I'm sure it happens the odd time mitch, but does seem to have uncanny knack of effecting hot favs?.
I'm sure most horses are scoped before they go racing don't you think?.

Local trainer at local track, not sure who the vet is that is on duty, but most probably a well known local?.

Forgive me for been sceptical, you would want to be pretty naive to take every excuse you hear at face value in the murky fenced off world of Irish horse racing.

Summer Star is a good example of the laziness of the handicapper,this mare won her two bumpers was then beaten in a third by Glens Melody,she then ran in a hurdle race in Sligo where she was never put into the race,this was followed by a debacle at the start of a Limerick maiden hurdle.
Her next few runs are so bad you would have to question what was going on but because our handicapper does it solely on ratings he believes it and gives her a 98 rating result a return to form and gamble landed.
I didn't back it as I wasn't sure it was a going day but at least Workrider was on.

I don't think there was any gamble landed.I had her earmarked as a possible touch when I saw the entries and was waiting to get any encouragement at all from the market.There was none and she was available for plenty at a double digit price a couple of minutes before the off returning a betfair SP of 11.

The handicapper can only handicap her on what she has achieved over hurdles.It is not in his remit to handicap her on her bumper form.Indeed she had a mark prior to her last maiden hurdle run which was strange as I had thought they would run her in a handicap as soon as she got her mark.

He could disregard her runs when she was blatantly not trying.
There is a grey area here as I think he has some discretion but I would certainly welcome Stellar Manipulators view and indeed some clarification from yourself Tolmi.
I would say there was a monster corpulent gamble on it with the price of a Maltese Falcon being earned.

If there was a gamble landed where was the money put on?As I said there was plenty available laying it on here at a double digit price which is inconsistent with a gamble being landed.

While I agree with your point about disregarding runs it is the stewards who should be acting if there were blatant non triers.I recall a Tom Costello horses many moons ago who the handicapper would not give a mark to until it had run about 8 times...Possible Precis was its name.Still hacked up when the cash was down.

If the gamble was Maltese Falcon inspired it would be on course mainly with some off course bookies as well,he is in dispute with this exchange.

There may well have been a gamble but normally the money would filter back here.If it was laid to decent money on course it wouldn't have a betfair SP of 11 imo.

I take that point would be interested if anyone knows whether she was heavily gambled.

Just spoke to an on-course pal of mine and said "summer star was a good winner in our books like the vast majority of bookies there on Saturday", he also said took a handful of bets all for small money. Said "the guy who told you that is bluffing or does not know what they're talking about". I asked him was there early money and he reply was "No".

Presumably this on course pal is a bookie when he is using phrases like our books but where was he when you failed to mention a single bookie that was operating at the Sligo meeting you pretended to be at.

Sorry Wildman i never name drop but he said bluffing or does not know what they are talking about. Now Tolmi said the exact same thing, that there was no gamble on the winner. So are you bluffing?

There was a gamble alright and I would wager that it was Maltese Falcon inspired.

Btw Wildman i might have a horse for you for during the week for Thurles if you're heading.

I will be there both days if its on but funnily enough that obsessed nocturnal lunatic friend of yours would know if there was a significant gamble on Summer Star as he has some knowledge of betting,if only you could stop his hallucinations.

Just to clarify I did not say there was no gamble but I did say there was no evidence to suggest there was!!And believe me I was watching closely!

Tolmi is right when he says that the handicapper can only go on the evidence of the formbook but WMFB is also correct in suggesting that the Handicapper has some discretion on whether to handicap a horse like Summer Star or not and obviously inaction on the part of the Stewards would surely play a factor in that ? The problem with raising Colbert Stations hurdle mark after he improves over fences is that he has got beaten off marks of 114.115 and 119 in handicap hurdles (before his recent win off 119). If he does what WMFB suggests and raises the horse a stone or two over hurdles on the basis of his improved chase form , I would have thought that Ted Walsh would have an open and shut handicap appeal on that reassessment in the absence of the express discretion the BHA Handicappers have to do just that ( and which the Turf Club handicappers dont have ). So it is not laziness on their part , simply an appreciation of what you are allowed to do and what you are not allowed to do. And trainers can and do appeal in these situations as I am led to believe DKW did in relation to Vintage Crop when NOB apparently reassessed his hurdle mark after he improved massively on the flat . ( I think he won too )

Thanks for the civil reply.
If the handicapper has no discretion then what is his function,any low grade clerk could submit all racing results into a computer and come out with a rating,that is actually what I think the handicapper does.
Horses that are obviously not trying are given a rating that reflects there actual finishing position,he doesn't seem to review the races.
I accept that he doesn't have the same discretion as his counterparts in Britain but he should have,he also never looked for it because that would entail some extra work.
His other great failing is when he gets a chance to rectify a mistake he never does it as he sees it as some kind of slur on his work.

I highlighted the problem of him crucifying horses for trying and feel he is responsible for the uncompetitive nature of maiden hurdles and novice chases.Everyone knows the disaster positions in those races are second and third part of his remit should be to favour the horses that have been running on their merits,he doesn't do that because he doesn't know as he barely seems to watch the races.

i think rocket had a feeling you were banned for having a go at him....he said his mates in betfair towers ..his words , looked after their better customers ...good to see the poor deluded lad was wrong again....

You are actually on this thread as it was you tipped up Summer Star and in fairness Tolmi also thought she was well in but was wondering like me whether yesterday was a going day.it was.

Yesterday should read Saturday

i had a great day as it turned out ....4 out of five ....talk about a change of luck....

I was delighted to hear it as was the forum with probably two exceptions.

I see Summer Star has been raised 9 lbs which is not harsh considering the turn of foot she showed.As a mare with two bumpers won a bit of black type over hurdles could well be the next objective.The mares handicap at Newbury towards the end of March could well be the next target.

There lies the handicappers weakness,he doesn't want to admit he was wrong so the trick of getting in of a patently wrong mark takes ages to work itself out.
He punishes the horses running on their merits and rewards the plot horses,all this year I have felt the Green and Gold have sailed close to the wind,Alserwood at Fairyhouse being the worst case although Blissful Moment at Naas ran it a close second.
The handicapper never seems to take that aspect into his calculations and brings to mind an instance with a handicapper of years back,he was breasted by a trainer because he hadn't given a horse a mark,after a lengthy rant the handicapper replied I will rate him when he tries and only then.

It certainly worked for Alderwood all the shenanigans resulted in a Cheltenham win.

We have another one today in Downpatrick sadly only thirteen pound well in,we have the in form Twin Plan running in a handicap chase off 85 that looks a crazy mark now,I think he will be yet another winner although the price is skinny.

WD Wildman, also thought it was a "good thing" if it got around.

Fiery Oscar reverts to chasing today after his improved effort over hurdling(much more difficult to do than going from chasing to hurdling in this context).He has made 9 starts over fences-his best finish being 4th in a handicap at Limerick off 99 in 2010.Although he looks to stay further,his 4 wins have come at the minimum distance,He appears to be thrown in off 89 today today but if you can't jump fences, it doesn't matter how well your in,would be a layer at 6/4 or shorter.

The fences are easy in Tramore but the ground could be a problem,he is by Oscar so should be alright on good ground and he is a handy enough horse so the idiosyncrancies of the course shouldn't bother him.

I made a rule years back never to back or lay in Tramore but for this fellow I will make an exception but for small stakes only to win.

Valid point about easy fences at Tramore(also has form at Downpatrick which is a quirky track ),ground won't be good now which is a positive for him,at least a stone well in on hurdles form.

Wd,Wildman ...ending your Tramore exclusion.good thread.

Willies Girl 6.50Kil,runs this evening on a 24lb better mark than her chase rating,she is blinkered so probably has quirks,still her last run wasn,t bad at all in quite a classy field,where she raced wide throughout but travelled well,slight mistake 5 out,she made ground to get into a challenging position until ultimitely weakening and falling at the last.Pick of her other runs this season would be her Leopardstown race(off 93) where she wasn,t beaten far against decent yardsticks.
Knockanarrigan won a race at Market Rasen while he is in good form not too sure that race amounts to much and Irish form previuos is poor,could well be improving however. Dante Anna while beaten a long way has raced against better,hard to find any other worthwhile current form in this fairly poor contest.
With 1 win from 29 starts not one to go overboard with,still ought to be thereabouts against this lot and hard to see her out of the places.

Best of luck with her Pa Lapsy but she is not for me.
She is by Anshan and they seem to do better in chases,she hasn't shown rapid improvement over fences.
Her last hurdle run was in Thurles and she was beaten some distance that day
Her second place finish at Tramore is a plus as she seems to be able to handle tight tracks

I appreciate your points Wildman,shame to say i,ve very little knowledge of breeding,i really should do something about it.
Nearly all video form with me,looked at her last race a few times,i did like it,accept they went sedate enough due to conditions and 3m6f still she raced wide that day and managed turning in to get into a challenging position against 140 rated chasers. Maybe tis a race to avoid as who knows what the plots are, but if she can replicate her run at Punchestown the 6/1 in this field seemed big to me. Shure we,ll know soon enough.

I think Pa Lapsy post of 9.58 is revealing
It is an excellent summation of the race,it correctly points out the weakness of the favourites form ( a massive drifter ) and puts up the 12/1 winner Dante Anna as the danger

This baldly putting up this horse will win is tiresome and of little value but putting your thoughts on a race can direct some of the more discerning to a winner.

She ran a stinker, twas embarressing. The value of putting your thoughts up is they can be disagreed with(i welcome that), last night and lurcher were two cases with me recently where unfortunatately i was too pigheaded but warned beforehand.

Ballyfinboy is a chaser back hurdling,he is only seven but appears nearly two stone well il,that should do it.
Killarney 3.10.

We have missed a few of these hurled in chasers over the last year most notably the hurled in Champion Hunter Chaser in Cork a fortnight ago.

We have one today in Fairyhouse.
Foritsa is two stone well in in the handicap hurdle,trained by a small stable which is a minus but the plus is its not a gambling stable.
4/1 looks a decent price to me.

Wildman cop yourself on!  Backing a 10 year old who hasnt run this season and hasnt run over hurdles in a long time.  Looks thrown in but better bets around.

Fair points but that's the reason Foritsa is 4/1.

Borneo, cheers for laying off the political, social and racial dogma this morning.  The forum feels all the better for it.

Best of luck with your selection, I never seem to have any luck with this type of selection personally.

Everyone's on Soma here.

I'm only backing Foritsa for a win as although he is two stone well in there is a possibility he might not like hurdles,might be a preparatory run also.

I would be firmly with WMFB here.

Sometimes these handicap snips reverting from chasing to hurdling are not the great bet they are made out to be, as they are simply far better chasers than hurdlers. There is no evidence that that is the case here.

Foritsa is handicapped on 3 hurdle runs. Her last effort in this sphere was when 5th in a Tramore maiden. Her chase debut a couple of weeks later, and numerous subsequent P2P defeats were no improvement on that, suggesting she was no better over fences.

She has just simply improved dramatically as a racehorse of late, and there is every possibility she will be the equal of her chase mark over hurdles. Which makes her a cracking bet imo.

4s looks lovely price now. No good if he doesn't oblige though!!

Bigwillystyle stated
     " Wildman cop yourself on!  Backing a ten year old who hasn't run this season and hasn't run over hurdles in a long time.
        Looks thrown in but better bets around "

Prescient words and worse still there was a better bet around and it was in that race.
If I had done my work I'd have seen it but through stupidity missed it.
Groody Hill was thrown in even more than my selection,this Troytown chase winner had more than two stone in hand,he availed of a mark 32 pound lower giving him a theoretical 4 pound on Foritsa.

Earlier on on this thread I slept for Saoirse Duns win in Naas,soured me so didnt back the beast the next two times he won.

Could anyone tell me how to view the handicap update
for 'chasers and hurdlers, such as ROAD TO RICHES and
DON COSSACK?
Thanks in advance.

Road to riches is rated 7lb higher and Don Cossack 4lb after their wins based on Turf Club INHS ratings. Found on "hri-racing.ie".

Thank a lot pa lapsy, very interesting but I
would not agree with the handicappers assessment,
this will be a guide to some for races such as the
GOLD CUP.
I do have very valid reasons to disagree, just
look at R to R form and you will see for yourself.

The two standouts are beaten off 145 in a handicap and to say Don Cossack is 10lb inferior is stretching it after a 5L beating off levels in the Drinmore in '13. Still hard for the handicapper to do anything else,last few runs have been in the style of a quickly improving horse,30L to Boston Bob and 50L to First Lieutenant(gold cup form on lines with them two) in Down Royal if taken on face value is something else though obvious the two were undercooked on the day.

A long way from winning a Galway handicap off 149 to winning a GC. Would never say it cant be done but I would be very wary of the DR form.

We're you on today wildman

You nearly have to back when they are two stone well in.

I probably should say nothing but Gallant Oscar was another chaser pitched in in a hurdle race,two stone is huge.

I held fire all day because of the trainer involved so was forced to take 2.4 and less but worth the wait.

I remember backing a similarly hurled in chaser in this race some years back,Operation Houdini yes its going on that long.

I watched Harvey Logan at it in some maiden hurdles,he managed to fool the handicapper got a 102 rating and landed a Naas gamble.
The handicapper then had a chance to correct his mistake but because of his laziness didnt,result another gamble landed

The handicapper consistently supports those that don't play the game.

Hope ya backed it if you thought he was that well inthen

Yes,just like you did.

I have the same worries as Gary OBrien with those colours.

I backed Operation Houdini that day myself WM. I wouldn't call all these types 'hurled in' though. They are handicapped on what they done over hurdles. The key is whether they are just far superior chasers, or have just simply improved as an animal since their hurdling days. Some prove blots...some don't. 

OH was an admirable animal with a good group of owners, he recouped the previous nights Breeders Cup losses that day!!

Talking about the green and gold silks, Shutthefrontdoor is trading at 3 for a Graduation Chase tomorrow. He wont be let within a furlong of any winner over fences between now and April. Jonjo is the best target trainer in the game. His target here is the GN,....he ain't going to scupper that with victory tomorrow. Lay til your finger gets sore!!

I backed him that day also and I do believe I pointed 1 of the owners in the right direction the following day he ran in the triytown after the disappointment of falling told him to have a right cut at the winner of the beginners chase

Ha, good stuff. Backed him in the Troytown too!

Hope it wasn't to costly callitasucit

Ended up backing Mickie at 2s OLC, as couldn't make much of a case for the rest. Shocked STFD won though. Mickie looked to blow up, having travelled like the winner.

Gallant Oscar made a fool of the handicapper in Navan,his trainer has a history of making a fool of the handicapper.

The handicapper now has a chance to rectify his error but just does what he always does posts the result into his computer and comes out with a new rating.
No review of the race,no consideration of ease of victory.

A low graðe clerk could do his job.

you really have to explain yourself callit. from the strongest possible lay advice to backing an entirely different horse a few hours later. I'm not saying anyone heeded your initial advice but it was a pretty bad call to seem so confident if you were so fickle.

Wildman, if what you allege about the handicapper is true it would be beyond belief i.e. not carefully reviewing this horse after its history. he is obviously very familiar with the connections carry-on from the past (Ruby riding short-odds shoo-ins in handicap hurdles) but Gallant Oscar was handicapped on the basis of a narrow victory ("all out under pressure") at Navan in January and had failed to win a low-grade handicap at Down Royal last Christmas when backed and running for Martin for first time. Bear in mind Martin is the third trainer to handle this horse.

He gets 11lbs for his troubles, up to 115, and still 18lbs below his chase mark. I don't really agree with discretionary subjective penalties based on the individuals involved and if there's something fishy going on it has to be a job for the stewards and not allowing them to rely on the handicapper for doling out punishment.

Incidentally, the Racing Post handicapper reckon he earned a mark of 114 after Navan in January (OR 104) and has given him 123 after this week's win so, all in all, still a mortgage job when Tony says "Go!" in the next valuable pot he contests.

Dick Dundee tomorrow in the handicap hurdle races 30lb below his last chase run,that wasn't a bad run at all beaten a head trying to give the bones of 2 stone away,the 4th He's Our Man franked the form a bit by finishing close up at Down Royal,the 3rd Nearest The Pin was P/U in the Cork grand National(classy race but rich to give it a "grand national",sorry GO'B).
Overall Dick Dundee isn't too consistent,a fine last run and no problems with soft are big pluses.
Linda'Choice is in great heart,was giving the Ill fated Snapchat something to think til falling at the last and has a string of consistent runs,creeping up the handicap a little and she hasn't run over this soft a ground,still think she is dangerous to DD.
Of the rest Might be Magic is interesting though finished 20L behind Lindas Choice last time,did finish in front of DD last Jan.Could be involved as also On My Own on his nearness to Tammy's Hill last time.
Think Mr Nolan would find it hard to get a chase at this time of the season whatever about summer jumps, still needs soft,no option now but a hurdle and looks to have a good chance.

Presume you backed him wildman? Never jumped a hurlde in Fairyhouse and was never asked to either.  Thought he was a cert but wouldnt back him at 3/1 because you never know with this crowd!  Backed him at 2/1 and again at 6/4 at least then you had a fdair idea you were on a trier. Will win at Leopardstown at christmas over 2m2f.  Same race as sea Light won last year.  Russell nearly decked him at the last.  No idea what he was doing!

I did the exact same as yourself,had to wait til the last minute backed him at 5/4.

Also agree with you about Leopardstown.

Presume he will get 10-15 pounds.  Also looked like he would improve plenty.  Wonks what u make of him in the ring?

Wonks didn't see him in the ring..... Was out in the car park looking for jp's car....as there wasn't sight nor sound of the chopper.... They said afterwards that he landed in semple stadium and walked over... As he didn't want to be rumbled ....

its thanks to these guys, doing a great job and are one of the reasons its so easy to make money.

thought might be interesting read for all of you, hope you all enjoy

we need one more viewer for critical mass of 10

dont forget to post one of your racist, islamaphobia, xenophobia threads tomoro, leave my name well out of it too

WMFB

HAVE

YOU

BEEN

SILENCED

you cannot brainwash me

you have done a good job brain washing the weaker members of this group

theres a road near where i live callled GALLOWAY ROAD, thats where the english use to HANG THE PADDYS

Does your uncle Mr. B***** have any interest in the handicapping these days

hes had lot more successful life then you toe-rag

what is it you do for a living old pa?? do tell

fitting central heating systems

i must put dat in me notebook.

old pa, lauded on here as a great tipster you felt so happy beating KINGRAT

did cross my mind to give KINGRAT a few winners, in order to beat you, thought better not intervene

why do my notebook threads get so many views old pa counted nearly 100 for yesterdays only runner.

do u remember old pa, when gave WR the 20/1 of that race, you was so pissed off, because mentioned it might
not like the ground, all started back then for you.

pulled that winner out of the hat like i was a magician (was notebook horses wasnt it old pa)

Roadrunner you looking for me?

hope you were you all checked out my write up yesterday on the main horse forum, was 7/1 when i posted that
winner, pulled out the hat like a magician

First rossvoss now seabass, well done Ted Walsh, taking advantage of much lower hurdle marks, and both big prices

Seabass race was not a handicap

Apologies bw hadn't even looked just assumed it was, today's card didn't interest me bar the bumper