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30 Nov 12
11:20
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Date Joined:
20 May 10
Ok lads this is an excellent bet, i don't want to go into why i think it's such a good bet, but i think the winner will come from one of the top 3 teams. St Pats are big value at 5/1, even though they lost their central midfielder and keeper i think they can cope. They have a very settled squad and with PP you can bet them ew first 3. I hate using the word certainty but i can't see them finishing outside the top 3 so you get your money back at worse. This will be their second season together and even though they lost their last 3 games i believe there was unsettling circumstances in the camp but they were improving as the season wore on. I expect them to be better next season and i like their close season signings so far, at present i rate the top 3 closely and at this moment in time maybe Pats ahead. Like Pats, Shams have done most of their business so there will be little change to their squad but may add a player or two, they're 6/4, we're 2/1 and Pats are 5/1.
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How would you price the three named teams and a non-named team to win the LoI on a 100% book ?
Right reb in essance i expect these prices to shift a fair bit before kick off, i'd pretty much have the field (W/O top 3) as it is circa about 20% (little less), but where i differ is the both Rovers teams being rated a 72.25% best price, I just can't have that. One of those i'd drift at present big time the other to a lesser extent. Shams i'd move out to a circa 36% chance while ourselves i'd move out to to about 7/2 (22%), i'd have Pats in 2nd fav at 100/30 (23%). The next few weeks will tell a tale but with Shams seemingly having most of their business (For me i have not be too impressed with it) done and us still having to replace 4 or 5 of our best players which could be very difficult to do i'd think Pats are value even if we signed players of equal qualiy of what we lost.
Agree that's a terrible price on Sham Rovers and the only possible value lies in the 5/1 on Pats at the current time. However, I wouldn't be rushing to back them given that their "real" price is, as you say, 10/3ish. I always, in my pricing, try to allow for the fact that I might be wrong ! You also have to wait 11 months for payout.
There is a huge amount of copying going on between the leading bookmakers now on this type of market. A few years ago you might have been able to get 6 or 7/1(a bet!) on Pat's from one of the major bookies pre a similar season.
There is a huge amount of copying going on between the leading bookmakers now on this type of market. A few years ago you might have been able to get 6 or 7/1(a bet!) on Pat's from one of the major bookies pre a similar season.
Gone top tonight, all be it having played a game more but they are starting to look good for the title.
The question that needs asking is....Were on this thread does it say you ACTUALLY backed them ....You say they are a great bet , but don tell us if and when you BACKED them ...Sounds to me as if its one of your if it wins i backed it , if it gets beat I only said i might back it ..Would you care to provide us with some PROOF of your bet....I'M reminded of a very recent post Rocketfingers 22 May 13 18:20
Flued up but i may go in for one race for one punt, on Twigline, don't be surprised too see this lad fav. Also might bet Seskiane w/o the front two.
The Rock...................................
Or the Liverpool one were you advised us to back to lay ....When same bet went tits up you said you got out of it ....How you managed to do that is still a mystery .....
Flued up but i may go in for one race for one punt, on Twigline, don't be surprised too see this lad fav. Also might bet Seskiane w/o the front two.
The Rock...................................
Or the Liverpool one were you advised us to back to lay ....When same bet went tits up you said you got out of it ....How you managed to do that is still a mystery .....
Can't lose 
You must be seething, you must really hate me, as you're not smart enough to get the better of me Wonky?
You must be seething, you must really hate me, as you're not smart enough to get the better of me Wonky?
Were's YOUR proof COCO....ANOTHER MYTHICAL BET FOR COCO ....
Great Shout Rocky.
workrider embarrasing himself again on this thread.
workrider embarrasing himself again on this thread.
Still 6/4 Pats i'd have them clear favs and i'd still make them a value punt. 5 points clear although a game more played
This is looking like a very good shout.
Well done Rocketfingers.
Well done Rocketfingers.
7 points clear and odds on now, going to hard to pull them back if they win their next few games !
Sligo struggling badly at present,Wouldn't be surprised if Rovers catch them.
Ya very poor, could not make the match last night but heard they were dreadful, 'again'.
Watched pats a few times this season,their a very decent side,im not sure if id trust them to hold their nerve though,
Still,Makes for a very interesting race.
Still,Makes for a very interesting race.
I'd actually agree with you again Roar if there was a team to put them under pressure. Derry or us not good enough, Shams neither and to far back. If someone went at Pats they would wobble for sure, but the way things are they can wobble and there will be nobody close enough to take advantage !
Rumoured to be a big signing on it's way our way this morning, let's hope it's true.
Got the news of Sligored this morning Rocket a good signing for ye...
Lol i'm not teasing but ask WR, but nothing signed or sealed yet.
Ok so workrider spill the beans,i think Sligo have a great chance of retaining the league this year,after the big win against Derry at the wkd.
Should be a good signing there for Shams, v big money though.
I hear you got that info last night....hope you had a good bet...
Yes i did, cheers Workrider, won very well. It was shame for the horse coming out as it would not have got near it, quality tip, thanks again.
Pats down to 1.36 with spoils and PP, win their next few games and beat us it's theirs, although we could really give them something to think about yet.
this thread is what it is all about old pa!getting the dough,comprendi chump?now keep stchum,nobody is interested in losers.
You are logged in there as kingrat, rocketfingers, Sad to see you blowing your own trumpet to be honest.
Great insight Rock, unfortunately I never followed you in.
Sad to see Pa having a go instead of congratulating you.
Sad to see Pa having a go instead of congratulating you.
Bloody hell Pa give a man some credit, how bitter are you?
He has been a seething mess since he called Ratser out last week to lay two horses, both of which lost.
If i remember correctly Ratser unloaded a double barrel on both those nags and took Pa for every cent he's worth, probably.
Far from seething,as said above saying it as i see it, very quick to put up a thread from the HR forum in order to try to humiliate a person,a nasty thing to do,you might of got your "points" but a low class thing to make a thread on here about it,speaks volumes about you as an individual.
Time for you to logout now "Rock", put ratty back on and clap yourself on the back again.
Pa why are you standing up for someone who makes racist comments?
Didn,t see his comments that were pulled,Premier on another thread said they were a bit out of order, I,d take that they were so,agree with Wildman however Rishi and that sj rep are cringeworthy and add zero to horse racing.
In fairness to RF he has tipped what always appeared to be an each way bet to nothing. When Keen Leader tipped Bournemouth at similar odds last season the whole place was salivating and rightly so even if Lady Luck deserted them on the last day. Of course everyone won because they all bailed out at long odds on!
Just give credit to RF for spotting and advising a decent wager whether or not he backed is his own business.
Just give credit to RF for spotting and advising a decent wager whether or not he backed is his own business.
very quick to put up a thread from the HR forum in order to try to humiliate a person
He humiliated himself with his comments.
He humiliated himself with his comments.
Why put it up on here and not keep it on the thread where he made the comments?
Because we have had countless threads on here about racism, these comments are relative to that dialoguue and show him up, once and for all, for exactly what he is.
And yet, you claim, that shining a light on his racism is a low class thing to do. What does that say about your own values, Pa?
Richters, regarding your sectarian fixation, I would echo Bono, circa 1987, on stage in LA in the wake of Eniskillen;
"There are two sides to this story. An I am sick and tired of both of them"
"There are two sides to this story. An I am sick and tired of both of them"
ozy would ya ever feck off. Ye couldnt even go a couple of weeks without posting here..
Take your walter mitty lifestyle and pi$$ off. i see you post on the man utd thread these days on the main forum. been to many matches have we?
you re one of these fans that say 'we' when talking about the club. Joke coming from an irishman
funny the odd time u do talk betting its about the X factor
FFS..
Take your walter mitty lifestyle and pi$$ off. i see you post on the man utd thread these days on the main forum. been to many matches have we?
you re one of these fans that say 'we' when talking about the club. Joke coming from an irishman
funny the odd time u do talk betting its about the X factor
FFS..
ye would know a lot about it as would the ever british bono
FreddieK, the boys miss you on the United forum. Don't be a stranger.
OZY has so much on the go he can give the lowdown on the the runners and riders in the fecking x factor
successful businessman eh..
successful businessman eh..
richters......the fair weather nationalist.......the vociferous volunteer.......who would do anything except volunteer.......the kind of supporter......that the real supporters are ashamed of.......the mock RA man......the tough guy......in the pub......LOL@richie.....
Trading at 1/20 currently, and people blame me for being a cancer to the forum put up some of your own bets.
rocket i have a good bet ew on pats.thanks very much.would never have done it only for you.wasnt gonna thank you till it was all over.dont be lettig yourself down with rubbish stuff with the 3 musketeers.your better than that.
Ok Kavvie welcome mate, leaving Ireland in a few weeks for a while so i may be on here very little if at all afterwards. Maybe my time has come !!!
This is probably in the running for Thread of the Year.
Well done Rocket..this kind of expertise and insight is what the forums all about, keep it up!
Well done Rocket..this kind of expertise and insight is what the forums all about, keep it up!
Thanks Ozy, i hope some of my fellow forumites availed of the price. No booooooooooooooooooooom either as i know that will totally send Wildman over the edge
He can't bring himself to congratulate you, more concerned with knocking the losing threads
I thought he might have popped on by now to recognise your achievement, Rocky.
Mate he's seething, don't worry i'll have a little glass or two of Dom Perignon for him, i usually safe a bottle for when i have a big win, it's chilling at the moment
Well done rocket , you could have been £300 better off if you'd taken my bet , still a winners a winner eh ...I think Del is trying to worm an invite , be careful who you open the door to.........Well done again...
....Well done again...
Thanks Workrider, tbf i don't anybody could see the season you had coming, ok i thought you were a skinny price but to finish outside the top 3 again i honestly could not see that happening before the season started, not with the squad you had.
St Pats turned out to be a very good each-way bet. Occasionally, I can be too choosy. Well done Rocketfingers.
Great day for st pats, it was nice to be there cheering on the saints.
P,S. Fair play to sligo,s fans they never stopped cheering on there team even when they were 2goals down, it was nice to see them giving Pats a round of Applause at the end of the game. good luck in the cup final sligo.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!collected this morning and the girl in the bookies had to get the manager who told me i would have to be paid by cheque.wd and cheers to the rock.
wd and cheers to the rock.
Anybody want another football bet long term one mind, message me, i can't get to it.
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