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One of the most hotly run handicaps of the year in england,A horse that has taken my fancy at around 16/1 would be the ex hannon trained Martyr,has won a nice few handicaps for hannon a couple of years ago before getting injuried and been on the sideline for two years,
Now been trained by a very good trainer in george baker who's stable seem to like landing a touch every so often,has had two runs this year 1st run at doncaster 10th of 12 behind sir gramhan wade in a 40k race only beaten around 4 lengths tho,2nd race run at newmarket in the jockey club rose bowl over two mile,re united with richard hughes and ran a great race finishing 4th,just getting tired inside the final furlong,
So hopefully they get Hughes back up for next saturday a jockey that riding the horse in alot of his races,so at around 16/1 think this is a great e/w bets,any views on the race lads or my taughts on my selections,thanks in advance.
Now been trained by a very good trainer in george baker who's stable seem to like landing a touch every so often,has had two runs this year 1st run at doncaster 10th of 12 behind sir gramhan wade in a 40k race only beaten around 4 lengths tho,2nd race run at newmarket in the jockey club rose bowl over two mile,re united with richard hughes and ran a great race finishing 4th,just getting tired inside the final furlong,
So hopefully they get Hughes back up for next saturday a jockey that riding the horse in alot of his races,so at around 16/1 think this is a great e/w bets,any views on the race lads or my taughts on my selections,thanks in advance.
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You seem to love a good ole puzzle Huddys, suppose if not Hughes it might be Murtagh,be interesting to see what he,ll be on with a few Irish challengers in it.Think Motivator should turn the couple of lengths around with Tominator no problem given it was his first race back.
Countrywide Flame looks a deserving favourite,still the one i like is Albert Bridge at around 20,s really impressed me last time at Ayr stayed on well in soft over 1m 5f where other than the runner up the field were well strung out.Carried 9 12lb has 7 13lb on Saturday.Trip and ground shouldn,t be a bother,the fact he is only 4 and had just 7 runs might however.At the price i,m hoping he is improving fast.gl with yours.
Countrywide Flame looks a deserving favourite,still the one i like is Albert Bridge at around 20,s really impressed me last time at Ayr stayed on well in soft over 1m 5f where other than the runner up the field were well strung out.Carried 9 12lb has 7 13lb on Saturday.Trip and ground shouldn,t be a bother,the fact he is only 4 and had just 7 runs might however.At the price i,m hoping he is improving fast.gl with yours.
I'm with Hurricane Higgins, stable in great form, dangers abound including the ones mentioned above, and Fallon for NH on Sentry Duty.................
jay , i'd hold fire with hurricane , he only passed his stalls test last week ...he just might get little upset ...if tings go as they should and he goes in no problem , then i think he has a real chance ..just think he might worry himself out of it...
jay , i'd hold fire with hurricane , he only passed his stalls test last week ...he just might get little upset ...if tings go as they should and he goes in no problem , then i think he has a real chance ..just think he might worry himself out of it...
normally ,my first port of call in this is nh types and thus ,i had a nibble on stormy weather at big prices on bf......ellison is an interesting trainer to me over the last year.this horse won lto,likes abit of cut and will run over the trip for the 1st time which i think it will improve for....gl all
The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 13th October and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Bronze Angel two weeks ago.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-17
4yo: 2-9-107
5yo: 1-8-82
6yo: 3-8-54
7yo: 1-2-38
8yo+: 2-2-35
Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-206).
4 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-19
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-66
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-12-91
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 3-6-78
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-4-70
Horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-2-9
No strong trend to be gleaned from the weights of the winners.
Top Weight: 00000005904 (0-1-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (1-5-45) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 45 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 76 to 86: 2-13-137
Horses rated 87 to 98: 7-14-166
Horses rated 99 to 109: 1-3-30
7 of 10 winners (including last 6) were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 16 of the 20 places in past 5 runnings.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start
7 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR on last flat start
9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level
5 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (4 of the 5 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)
Other Races
Hill Dickinson Handicap winner (Countrywide Flame): 1 (1-0-1)
Shergar Cup Stayers winner (Address Unknown): 0017 (1-0-4)
John Guest Brown Jack Stakes winner (Montaser): 008010 (1-0-6)
Bet At bluesquare.com Stakes winner (Lordofthehouse): 00 (0-0-2)
BetVictor.com Stakes winner (Olympiad): 000 (0-0-3)
Isle Of Skye Handicap winner (Albert Bridge): 000 (0-0-3)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Hurricane Higgins): 500000 (0-0-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 0108
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 243
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512
2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup last time, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Carter H'cap last time, finishing 33
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-8) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 8 runners in the past 10 years.
Mark Johnston (1-1-17), David Simcock (1-0-1) and Brian Meehan (1-0-2) have all trained the winner once since 2002.
Tim Fitzgerald (0-2-3) saddled Inchnadamph to finish 3rd-2nd-5th in 3 consecutive years, while Dermot Weld (0-2-4) trained Direct Bearing to be placed twice in the race and David Pipe (0-2-8) has also saddled 2 placed finishers in past 10 runnings.
Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 12 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).
Irish-trained runners (1-4-16) have made the frame with 5 of 16 runners.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-12-120
Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-11-120
Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-7-93
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 7 of the last 10 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 4 of last 10 winners and taken a quarter of the places from just over 15% of the total runners.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below
Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 and Never Can Tell at 25/1 last year have been the 2 big upsets with the other 8 winners since 2002 all going off 16/1 or below.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.
Racing Style
8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division
This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, including last year’s winner, Never Can Tell, who made all.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or hurdles runner aged 6+
Officially rated 87 to 98
Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher
Posted highest RPR last time out
Run in 12 or fewer flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)
Won over at least 2 miles
Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)
Previously contested a group or listed race
Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate
First 5 in Ascot Stakes, Shergar Cup Stayers or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap
Placed in Doncaster Cup or Gordon Carter H’cap last time
Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)
Tends to be held up or settled in midfield
Trained by Nicky Henderson
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-17
4yo: 2-9-107
5yo: 1-8-82
6yo: 3-8-54
7yo: 1-2-38
8yo+: 2-2-35
Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-206).
4 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-19
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-66
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-12-91
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 3-6-78
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-4-70
Horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-2-9
No strong trend to be gleaned from the weights of the winners.
Top Weight: 00000005904 (0-1-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (1-5-45) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 45 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 76 to 86: 2-13-137
Horses rated 87 to 98: 7-14-166
Horses rated 99 to 109: 1-3-30
7 of 10 winners (including last 6) were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 16 of the 20 places in past 5 runnings.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start
7 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR on last flat start
9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level
5 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (4 of the 5 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)
Other Races
Hill Dickinson Handicap winner (Countrywide Flame): 1 (1-0-1)
Shergar Cup Stayers winner (Address Unknown): 0017 (1-0-4)
John Guest Brown Jack Stakes winner (Montaser): 008010 (1-0-6)
Bet At bluesquare.com Stakes winner (Lordofthehouse): 00 (0-0-2)
BetVictor.com Stakes winner (Olympiad): 000 (0-0-3)
Isle Of Skye Handicap winner (Albert Bridge): 000 (0-0-3)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Hurricane Higgins): 500000 (0-0-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 0108
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 243
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512
2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup last time, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Carter H'cap last time, finishing 33
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-8) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 8 runners in the past 10 years.
Mark Johnston (1-1-17), David Simcock (1-0-1) and Brian Meehan (1-0-2) have all trained the winner once since 2002.
Tim Fitzgerald (0-2-3) saddled Inchnadamph to finish 3rd-2nd-5th in 3 consecutive years, while Dermot Weld (0-2-4) trained Direct Bearing to be placed twice in the race and David Pipe (0-2-8) has also saddled 2 placed finishers in past 10 runnings.
Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 12 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).
Irish-trained runners (1-4-16) have made the frame with 5 of 16 runners.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-12-120
Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-11-120
Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-7-93
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 7 of the last 10 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 4 of last 10 winners and taken a quarter of the places from just over 15% of the total runners.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below
Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 and Never Can Tell at 25/1 last year have been the 2 big upsets with the other 8 winners since 2002 all going off 16/1 or below.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.
Racing Style
8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division
This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, including last year’s winner, Never Can Tell, who made all.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or hurdles runner aged 6+
Officially rated 87 to 98
Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher
Posted highest RPR last time out
Run in 12 or fewer flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)
Won over at least 2 miles
Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)
Previously contested a group or listed race
Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate
First 5 in Ascot Stakes, Shergar Cup Stayers or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap
Placed in Doncaster Cup or Gordon Carter H’cap last time
Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)
Tends to be held up or settled in midfield
Trained by Nicky Henderson
cheers bjg!!!!now that is what i call an outstanding contribution........in a race like this,stats go up the pecking order as regards selections.....take note workwank and wildman bore
"it might be worried out of it" ffs
"it might be worried out of it" ffs
"it might be worried out of it" is a comment i can understand Kingrat whether you agree or disagree it deserves a bit more respect than openly scoffing at it.No need for personal attacks on people here particulary as a response when someone took time and trouble to answer your query.
Royal academy put a site up not so long ago,geegeez.com normally gives fundamental stats in bigger races(nothing as good as above) but not a bad start.Anyway Gl with Stormy weather.
Royal academy put a site up not so long ago,geegeez.com normally gives fundamental stats in bigger races(nothing as good as above) but not a bad start.Anyway Gl with Stormy weather.
whats yre problem bud?i am sure that these 2 bores can defend themselves
Why are you asking them to defend themselves on a thread about the cesarewitch?
The substance you must be using are illegal ones and if you are caught you should be deported.
I suppose that's progress two posts without swearing,although the posts are short and meaningless and somewhat craven they are an improvement
The Cesarewitch is not a betting race for me,I rarely bet on English racing.
The Cesarewitch is not a betting race for me,I rarely bet on English racing.
yre a spoiler and over the years ,you have become a spunker,a nuisance when liquored up that sh1ts in his pants....
kingrat you called me a sleveen, bit of hypocrisy there when your more known username is Irish are lucky(there are others)
Whats keeping you now? do you want me to list the rest?
kingrat you got personnel with someone making a contribution to a thread in trying to find the winner of the race,you can disagree without resorting to ridicule /smart answers,manners thats all,a small bit of respect rather than name calling.
Hardly surprising given his name that Kingrat is a welsher,if you stay on til midnight we will introduce you to our nocturnal poster Never Give Up.
lapsy pa...the poor kid is unwell lets leave it at that.....hes not worth it...
son , why do you insist on ruining reasonable threads with your infantile drivel ....good night and god bless you..i really hope you get well...
You,re asking me why i care,answered that more or less above,why are you being delibrately obnoxious to people you mightn,t shall we say get on with here?
A very unhealthy interest in human excrement
Seen it. heard it on a long running thread before,boring.
so,whats the thinking on the cesarewitch?any opinions?....
The one minus to Aidan OBriens training career is his poor record in handicaps,he can't even get easy wins for his two daughters.He has an intended runner in the Cesarewitch in the rapidly improving I Have A Dream I feel he could reward us at a decent price.
Having said all that Huddys has a great record when he creates threads about these hard to solve handicaps.
Having said all that Huddys has a great record when he creates threads about these hard to solve handicaps.
cheers bjg,ihave a m8 we call mr stats,it can make the final decission and sometimes when i am going large ,its the clincher,i always take it into account
ok,ok i got rid of the sh1ts.....lets have a serious debate on the race propper
What i was hoping the champ Hughes will be taken the ride on Martyr
Hughes is on your fella huddys and is drawn 15, thats as far out as you'd want, must have a decent shout.I Have A Dream is in stall 36, and not a plus in fact a major minus..........Fallon is on the top weight, for B Meehan, and its a bit surprising to see J Culloty going over with a runner, would he have a chance e/w ?
martial law for me ,ran a cracker at chester , a course that would not really suit ,this fellow stayed on really well , ...on a more galloping track ,and with a smashing weight this 6 yo by gallieo is worth a bet ....mr pipe knows what it takes to win these sort of races on the flat...
Ermyn Lodge for me at around 40/1, I'm willing to ignore his 2 poor runs this year most likely the Cez was his main aim anyway a race he was r/up last year and is only 3lb higher this year, was also r/up in the Ascot stakes last year so extreme distances are right up his street, at the prices certainly worth a dabble ew with most bookies going 5 places, wouldn't surprise me if Sentry Duty runs a big race at a big price too?
montaser down at bottom 8st francis norton riding good.only neg is its a 3yr old.drawn 20 is ok.at 10s ew 12345 its a decent bet in my opinion.
kavvie , the owner took one of his out to allow this fellow get in ...simcock says this has been the target all along ...3 yos have a reasonable record in this...
Bernie the Bolt & Very Good Day are my two e/w darts. 
Ermyn ran a stinker, but my other bet Sentry spent a half hour on the rails trying to get a run, and when he was out all one spaced to finish 12th the race was already over, I actually thought a girl was riding the horse, Martin Dwyer looks like a girl these days.
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