Irish Sports
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
18 Sep 12
20:11
Joined:
Date Joined:
09 Dec 09
1.55- Secret Recipe (Should handle conditions and his form behind Cristoforo Colombo looks plenty good enough to win a little maiden like this)
2.25- Dougal Philps (Conditions should negate the drop back in trip and it will be disappointing if he doesn't prove to be a bit ahead of an opening mark of 85, which imo looks very lenient)
2.55 Chamonix NAP (Will act on this ground and could see Joseph leaving his rivals in the shade a long way out on this one)
3.30 Tugboat (Will go on this ground and although the form of its Galway run hasn't been franked, I thought it won a shade cosily that day and would be surprised if it wasn't up to landing a little novice hurdle like this)
5.10 Mumbo Jumbo (Acts on this surface and although it lacks hurdling experience it is certain to have been well schooled and its bumper form would entitle it to go very close)
2.25- Dougal Philps (Conditions should negate the drop back in trip and it will be disappointing if he doesn't prove to be a bit ahead of an opening mark of 85, which imo looks very lenient)
2.55 Chamonix NAP (Will act on this ground and could see Joseph leaving his rivals in the shade a long way out on this one)
3.30 Tugboat (Will go on this ground and although the form of its Galway run hasn't been franked, I thought it won a shade cosily that day and would be surprised if it wasn't up to landing a little novice hurdle like this)
5.10 Mumbo Jumbo (Acts on this surface and although it lacks hurdling experience it is certain to have been well schooled and its bumper form would entitle it to go very close)
Show More
What beings you to the conclusion that Dougal is very leniently treated? Are you factoring in a much improved performance around this trip (your comments suggest slight concern about the trip).
He was beaten by Violet Lashes, when he was too keen and may not have got home - The victor cannot win off 83.
He split Shelford (well beaten off 91 in handicaps) and not far ahead of the moderate Buckingham Gate who certainly does not look better than a 75 horse. He will be better suited by the drop in distance though.
His victory was over Jpevie who subsequently has been well beaten off 76. It was comfortable and he could be rated 10lb better than Jpevie or a little more, but that nearly places him on 85.
Leniently treated would mean that you consider him 90+?
Very leniently treated means you have him as a 95+ horse?
His mark looks about right to me and I don't see much to work with.
He was beaten by Violet Lashes, when he was too keen and may not have got home - The victor cannot win off 83.
He split Shelford (well beaten off 91 in handicaps) and not far ahead of the moderate Buckingham Gate who certainly does not look better than a 75 horse. He will be better suited by the drop in distance though.
His victory was over Jpevie who subsequently has been well beaten off 76. It was comfortable and he could be rated 10lb better than Jpevie or a little more, but that nearly places him on 85.
Leniently treated would mean that you consider him 90+?
Very leniently treated means you have him as a 95+ horse?
His mark looks about right to me and I don't see much to work with.
I think he should be a 93/94 rated horse imo. He beat jpevie in Ballinrobe who went on to win its next two races, the second of those a comfortable success off 75, I think Dougal Philps is at least a stone superior to jpevie.
Violet lashes beat it over a trip that was imo too far for him off a mark of 85 and was then consiered good enough to contest the oaks trial at naas that caponata won, but the firm ground was probably not in its favour that day.
At 9/2, I think it is a more than fair price, seeing as the ground will be against northern rocked and unanimous looks vulnerable off 92.
Violet lashes beat it over a trip that was imo too far for him off a mark of 85 and was then consiered good enough to contest the oaks trial at naas that caponata won, but the firm ground was probably not in its favour that day.
At 9/2, I think it is a more than fair price, seeing as the ground will be against northern rocked and unanimous looks vulnerable off 92.
interesting runner in the 4.40 is clarkey,won this race this last 2years and is back to his 2010 winning mark...a really eye catchin run last time out at downpatrick storming home into 2nd over hurdles shud leave him in good shape for this although isnt gettin any younger....would be a popular winner here as i think it is locally owned.....worth an ew bet imo.....
Jpevie did not achieve a comfortable success off 75 as it was not a handicap. Given the way the ratings were framed in that race, it is fair to say that he ran to a mark of 75 alright despite some rather disappointing sorts in against him.
There is no question that the trip beat him on some of the runs this year. I think he is fairly treated rather than having a lot in hand. However there is nothing that stands out to beat him. I was looking at his rating in the context of the tissue price of 5/2 in the RP and allowing for a margin of error. 9/2 is certainly fair.
There is no question that the trip beat him on some of the runs this year. I think he is fairly treated rather than having a lot in hand. However there is nothing that stands out to beat him. I was looking at his rating in the context of the tissue price of 5/2 in the RP and allowing for a margin of error. 9/2 is certainly fair.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539