"Listowel Monday " PREVIEW DAY 2

As we saw on Sunday very testing ground so clearly horses who relish deep ground will be very much at home around the North Kerry track ! A tough days racing some competitive fare,but possibly two solid punts !

2.35 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Premier Nursery Handicap of €30,000.00 2-y-o
A fiercely competitive Nursery and quite a tightly knit race with at least 5 in with a serious shout. Not a race I'll play in but Aidan O'Brien has won this the last two years and saddles the overnight jolly Count Of Limonade. He will handle the ground,is tough and has a touch of class but he hasn't much in hand of  Cest Notre Gris who is 7lbs better in for about 2 lengths that divided them in Killarney,in theory he should reverse the form as he never handled Killarney. Orgilgo Bay looked a serious prospect after two runs but was way too free in Leopardstown,he'll need to settle better here to get home but might get a good tow from a few potential front runners. He has a touch of class ! Wholelotofrosie made all in gallant style in Galway and beat a decent Dermot Weld Filly with the rest nowhere,she's on the upgrade and has a squeak. Impound looks tough staying type he battled on well in Killarney under a strong Smullen ride and will be battling late on !

VERDICT Despite his great record in the race and his gutsy Killarney victory I'm going to oppose Count Of Limonade from his poor draw. I don't think he'll be able to dominate as he did in Killarney with a few other front runners better drawn to lead !
So I suggest LAYING Count Of Limonade at up to 7/2 he's currently 11/4 to lay on here (3.7) . He might turn out to be a real improver and a progressive type but I'll take him on from his draw and with him unlikely to dominate from the front as he did in Killarney given a soft lead !!!
SELECTION: LAY Count Of Limonade at up to 7/2

3.05 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden of €14,500.00 2-y-o
Doubt i'll have a bet in this ! A fillies maiden on dire ground hardly looks your typical race to go in head down on,but only 4 count and maybe only 2 in reality ! If you could forgive Calissa's very poor run in a Group 3 at The Curragh she'd be the proverbial good thing. She led early was a bit keen to get across from an average draw. she was taken on for the lead and went out like a light  and trailed in a distance behind the winner ! The ground should nove have been a concern,her trainer feels she wants juice being by Danehill Dancer. Her Dam Mauralakana won on Heavy ground at Maisons-laffitte and on soft ground a few times ! Prior to that Curragh flop she ran a blinder Calissa’s Fairyhouse  third was commendable as she was drawn very wide in comparison to the first two. At the furlong marker you’d have thought she might be fifth but she ran on really well and  she looked like she probably needs seven furlongs,in this ground six will seem like seven. Of course there is a possibility that she didn't act on the heavy at The Curragh but her breeding suggests otherwise and on her Fairyhouse run she'd win this !

Calissa  finished over 3 lenghts in front of a key rival tommorow Tobann at Fairyhouse in June but Tobann had an even worse draw and was bang there to two out ! She then  finished just half a length behind Saturday's Curragh winner, Pearl Music, Tobann was the stable second string  that night and schooled around an eyecatching fifth, behind Pedro The Great (since a Group 1 winner) at Leopardstown . Her absence shouldn't be a worry,there is a fear this run could qualify her for a mark but I think they'd glady win as she's nicely bred by Teofilio and out of an Indian Ridge mare Precipitous who Bolger trained to win a mile maiden in Cork. That's my one fear that TOBANN might want further,but the 6 1/2 furlongs here will be a test in the ground which she will relish !INDIGO RIDGE ran well on  debut at Cork in weak  4-runner maiden, beaten less than a length into third behind Versilia Gal, but finished last there a month later. INDIGO RIDGE is bred to sprint and handle the ground but went out like a damp squib in Cork. Hard to fancy her !
That leaves TALITHA **** who drops in trip after two fair runs behind good winners in above average fillies maidens. The question is will the drop in trip suit her. But in my view the 3 main protagonists' will all want further. the rest have no chance !

VERDICT: A 3 horse race and maybe the market will prove key. I'm going to monitor the market and find out what went wrong with CALISSA in The Curragh Group 3 ,at this stage I'm kind of making it a match CALISSA and the TOBANN I'm certain Bolgers filly is way, way better than what she's shown in her 2 eyecatching runs ! I might sit this out but if i get a push for either of these fillies I'd be tempted to play !
SELECTION CALISSA and TOBANN against the field. Market vital !

3.35 Feale Handicap of €9,000.00 3-y-o
Looks a hugely difficult no bet race at first glance. Surely from a dire draw the tough top weight CONSONANCE might be unable to defy a 4lb hike for a tough Galway win. He had a hard race there but is tough and consistent. The dark horse here is Res Nullius who despite a tardy start ran a cracker to finish second at 25/1 under Pat O’Donnell for his father behind a smart Tommy Stack horse at the Curragh. Young O'Donnell looked a little akward in that tight finish and had come widest of all but finished strongly. If he can break smarter and get a good position he could run a big race.
VERDICT: Not a race i'd be punting in but for those who must
Res Nullius might be an each way bet provided he doesn't lose ground at the start as he has on all 3 starts to date. Possible plot horse,inexperience of Pilot a concern. thats why I'll look on but he'd be my stab in the dark for those who must !

4.35 John F. McGuire Novice Steeplechase of €22,000.00 4-y-o plus
At first glance an open looking 4 horse race but my best bet on the day runs here as the testing ground and 2 1/2mile trip  is tailor made for
SWEET MY LORD my NAP who simply loves heavy ground something none of his 3 rivals can say. On his recent chasing debut at Tramore,
Sweet My Lord’s jumping was superb, as he cruised home three and a half lengths clear of Lord Ben,who blundered badly two out. 2 miles around the tight confines of Tramore would have been all against this exciting prospect. Willies post race comment says it all "He wants further but he is a natural jumper and it was a good performance first time over fences." Willie has always been adamant that Heavy ground is the key to him. He can't jump as fast as the others on faster ground,but on heavy ground his jumping comes alive and after initial fears that chasing might not be his game he looks a natural at it based on Tramore and on schooling reports ! He is  partly owned by popular RTE presenter Colm Murray, who is battling with motor neurone disease. Everybody knows that Colm Murray loves Listowel big time and I'm sure this has been the plan all along ! Aidan Devaney, Jonathon Mullin (Irish Racing Post Editor) also own a leg in a horse whose 4 wins have all come on Heavy Ground ! Ruby back on board instead Emmet Mullins is a huge plus,this horse can win from the front or come from behind. in his early hurdling career his jumping was sketchy over hurdles but fences was always going to make a man of him !
I give Carlito Brigante no chance despite he having a stone in hand on hurdles form. He'll hate the ground has had a wind operation which might not have worked given his Kilbeggan flop,he had to have stitches after Cheltenham so has had his problems. PRIDE OF THE ARTIC is solid and tough but isn't in the class of the big 2 here.

So the big threat to Willie's horse comes from BALLYADAM BROOK who though he hasn't won on heavy ground should handle it as he's by ALDERBROOK. he landed a punt in Killarney in an above average chase for the Kerry venue ! clearly he's had problems in the last 2 years as after Killarney his shrewd cork trainer revealed  "He fractured a joint two years ago and has been lame on and off ever since.The last six weeks he stayed sound and we have been able to get a run of work together."
I think he's the only threat in what I think is a match ! I'd like Ruby to make the running as I think SWEET MY LORD will jump better out in front,also he stays really well. But generally on deep ground ruby likes to hold his horses together ! Who am I to give Ruby advice !

VERDICT: SWEET MY LORD on his favoured surface has everything in his favour and if he jumps as he did in Tramore he should beat his only rival in my view BALLYADAM BROOK provided the latter stays sound !
SELECTION: (1) SWEET MY LORD (NAP)*** (2)BALLYADAM BROOK

4.35 I.T.B.A. Fillies Scheme Novice Hurdle of €25,000.00 4/6-y-o

As per usual great prize money for a woeful Mares race. at least last year a serious mare won it in the shape of SHADOW EILE but this is a poor turnout for €16,250.00 first prize !

I have no doubt that on form the best mare in the race is RISING TIME but her trainer Paul Nolan seems to have gone at the game and he hasn't trained a winner for 88 days and has had 24 runners in the interim,in fact he's only trained about 20 winners in the last 2 seasons. A few seasons back he was close to 40 for one season ! RISING TIME has been chasing and failed to deliver on soft ground on her chasing debut when punted in Tipperary when 2nd to RAISE THE GOBLET. She than fell at the first in Wexford. She looked a potential superstar on her debut when she won the "Tattersalls Ireland Sales Bumper". To win on her debut she must have been a hell of a mare to beat the geldings first time out and is valuable now as her dam is the closest living relative of Dawn Run. But she hasn't progressed since and her best run in defeat was an eyecatching 5th in a hot Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle won by AUPCHARLIE. She did land a Tramore maiden hurdle in April. Good ground seems to be vital to her and both wins came on that type of surface which indicates she'll struggle on the heavy Ground here ! Yet she's got  by far the best form but ground and stable form counteract that and are a real concern.

CHILTERN HILLS has been disappointing over hurdles and costly to follow, but has at least she got lots of valuable experience !She will handle this ground. The trip is probably on the short side for her but the testing conditions should bring her stamina into play. she has had problems with the easy fix hurdles at Downpatrick and Balinrobe bunny hopping them. But maybe these conventional hurdles will work the oracle as her bumper form is top drawer !!! If Ruby gets her jumping fluently she has a big shout but any repeat of her poor hurdling in these conditions will drain her !

First-time blinkers failed to bring out any improvement last time in
CHASING SHADOWS as she ran poorly in Sligo. However her 3rd at Kilbeggan has worked out brilliantly as there have been 4 winners out of that contest ! She was 4th in one of these Sales races in February and had some good runs including 2nd to a right horse Marasonnien  at Naas in January,he went on to win a Grade 1 in Punchestown ! If you forgave CHASING SHADOWS flop in Sligo she'd be serious player. It looks a 3 horse war unless Michael Hourigan's Tropical Three is a class recruit from the pointing scene. Great jockey booking in Barry Geraghty but I'll take my chances that the 3 with racecourse form will prove too classy !

VERDICT Lots of question marks but i'm certain the winner will come from one of the trio RISING TIME,CHILTERN HILLS or CHASING SHADOWS whether I have a punt is highly debateable with issues over all 3. Looks a race to pick 2 from 3. I'd definitely pick RISING TIME despite all his issues with ground and paul nolan's barren spell. I'd punt one of the other pair also but must see the market develop !

5.10 Cashen Handicap Hurdle (Rated 80-109) of €10,000.00 5-y-o plus

VERDICT:No opinion ! wide open a few possible plots !!!

5.35 Bank Of Ireland Flat Race of €10,000.00 4-y-o 2m.
1st - €6,900.00, 2nd - €1,700.00, 3rd - €800.00, 4th - €500.00 18 Declared

Again a tough bumper and the market will tell if Patrick Mullins keeps up his 100% record for Jim Bolger in bumpers this term on the choicely bred FAOILEAN. John Kiely's will be interesting if punted !!
VERDICT :No Bet


Overall a tough day but at Evens SWEET MY LORD on perfect testing  ground looks the day's good thing on a tricky afternoon ! Depending on the market I might play those fillies races. I will update later..Happy Punting
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