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bardo
14 Sep 12 13:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 2,578 | Blogger: bardo's blog
back in april i placed a 100 euro win single on Mayo to win the All Ireland at 18-1.

Now they are in the final i can either let it ride and go for broke hoping that Mayo win and this making 1800 Euro profit.

Or else i can play safe and choose to lay off some of my potential 1800 profit on Mayo winning and hedge some of that by backing Donegal to win. But the problem for me is that Donegals odds are just so bad.

Donegal are best price 8-15 or 1-2 to win the match itself and are as low as 2-5 to lift the tropy. Mayo are 7-4 this makes laying them kind of pointless as i would only end up making 450 Euro, should I choose to lay off half my profit.

What im looking for is to find a bet ( or combination of bets ) that will return me about 900 Euro if either Mayo or Donegal win.

Its a bit early yet and most bookies dont have the full range of markets up for the final, but ive been thinking maybe backing Donegals winning margin might be a solution.. e.g.. Donegal to win by 1-3 pts, ( at 13-5 ) or Donegal win by 4-6 pts ( currently at 7-2 )

But I would like to hear if anybody can see or point out any good bets on the game that will ensure that I end up with about equal money if either Donegal or Mayo win.

Ladbrokes also have a special at 8-11 which includes the game ending in a draw , and /or both teams winning by less than 4 points.

Cheers
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Report wildmanfromborneo September 14, 2012 1:52 PM BST
You seem to be asking the impossible.
Let the bet run on the basis that Mayo were your original selection,this trying to guarantee a no lose situation is a recent phenomenon and all it really does is ensure you will never have a big win.
If you try some of these exotic bets there is always a chance you can lose both your original bet and a few new ones as well.
Report Dan Chipowski September 14, 2012 2:10 PM BST
I think messing with winning margin markets might end in disaster tbh.
Report moneypenny September 14, 2012 2:18 PM BST
You have already answered your own question

You can lay mayo on here @ 3.1 for 600 and lock in a profit of about 500 euro. mathematically that is what your bet is worth

you can dress it up anyway you like but any other action is just another bet that could win or lose.

might be worth your while keeping an eye on the shops where you might get a special on the screen giving you a bit of value on donegal.
Report Cupwinkcook September 14, 2012 9:23 PM BST
what moneypenny said

purple will give you less commish but less liquidity

If you want to put up 3.2 at any stage I'll take plenty as I'm too heavy on Donegal
Report G Hall September 14, 2012 10:22 PM BST
I would lay back some as i am firmly of the belief that donegal will win
Report erris1 September 14, 2012 10:24 PM BST
i think any winning margin on donegal is fraught with danger...its just too risky as its not hard to envisage donegal 2 points up at half time mayo having to attack in the second half leaving themselves open at the back which donegal could exploit and run up a big score..in effect a situation similar to the cork game which was realistically a 6 or 7 point victory...i think that you should let it ride as its so hard to predict how each set of players will deal with the pressure
Report Sligored September 15, 2012 1:25 AM BST
you now have an 18/1 bet moved into 2/1 - cant guarantee yourself 900 euro - you will get 1/2 on donegal winning the all ireland - bet 1200 on donegal - if donegal win you get 600 , mayo win you get 700 - or just stick 200 on donegal to cover your stake - for what its worth i would carry the bet as anyone who bet 100 euro on mayo at the start of the year could afford to lose 100 euro - if mayo win have the weekend of your life - if they lose go home with your tail between your legs - i wish i was in your situation - well done.
Report Newmanix September 15, 2012 7:53 AM BST
hope mayo play like they did against dublin and go for it early.  lay at around 1.7 to guarantee a nice return.
Report lustrumm September 15, 2012 9:16 AM BST
A low margin win bet on Donegal is the play taking both options up to 6 points,which is about evens, if it is a draw your main bet is still alive. I agree facing into 4/9 Donegal is hard after enduring the whole summer watching your man bet at 18/1 beat all comers to get to the final.
Report db1974 September 15, 2012 2:54 PM BST
What price did you expect Mayo to be in the final? They would be even bigger if they were playing Cork or Kerry or Dublin
Report lustrumm September 15, 2012 4:15 PM BST
TBH when it was Donegal I thought they would bet a bit tighter. I still fancy Donegal to win a drab game but I thought it would 1.65 type of area  outright
Report bardo September 19, 2012 7:17 AM BST
Donegal and their fans believe their own hype, they seem to think that they have got this already in the bag, and they just just need to show up to collect the cup.

Nobody seems to be giving any respect to Mayo, which means on the day all the pressure will be on Donegal.

I think this will be a low scoring game, so best option is to see how it goes in running and then trade.

will cover the draw just in case as i think there will only be a point or two in this. Cant see it being a good open game, will be very very cagey. The fear of losing will affect both teams.

Pundits and everybody else seem to be talking about Donegals amazing tactics and gameplan.In truth they are a team that has come from nowhere in the last few years.You would swear they were going for 5 in a row, its all just media hype. People calling them unbeatable is nonsense.

weather could affect this game also. A wet and windy day would suit Donegal more id say.

Hunger doesnt seem to get a mention much.Just think Mayo want this more.. 61 years waiting and so many recent finals lost in Croke Park.Really hope Mayo do it.
Report Bassanio September 19, 2012 10:00 AM BST
You backed Mayo at the start and got a great price.

As the final approaches you seem to think Donegal are underpriced and there is little in this game.

If that is your thinking, then you cannot lay Mayo or back Donegal at current prices unless getting some money back is vitally important. Securing a profit is one thing but it is a stupid thing to do if it results in you betting at prices that you believe to be wrong.

Maybe see if Mayo start fast against a traditionally stronger second half side and hope to play some of it at 1/1 if Mayo do not get away by much at half time.

Choice comes down to you in the end as it is your money.
Report freddiek September 19, 2012 2:59 PM BST
you ll be a happy man come sunday night. Mayo have their name on the trophy i reckon.
Report Rocketfingers September 19, 2012 3:09 PM BST
I hope Mayo win this, Donegal seem certain it's amatter for Jim and the boys to go and collect it and the only debate is where to have the home coming Donegal Town or Letterkenny !
Report Monte Christo September 19, 2012 3:26 PM BST
To be fair Rocket that had nothing to do with the Donegal Team.

They know Mayo will be a tough nut to crack and they'll give them the respect they deserve.

If Donegal lose on Sunday it'll not be due to some media crap over homecoming venue.

Fwiw it'll be an interesting game which Donegal will just shade imo.
Report Rocketfingers September 19, 2012 4:14 PM BST
Ya i know that Monte but to be fair the fact that there is an argument imo gives an insight to how confident they are up there. Anyway i live close to Donegal they are very confident.
Report Monte Christo September 19, 2012 4:25 PM BST
I'm living in Donegal myself Rocket and the build up here is amazing to be fair.God knows what it'll be like if they bring Sam home.Laugh

A lot of people here might be guilty of over-confidence but I'd be amazed if it makes it's way to the actual team.

If Donegal are there or thereabouts at half-time they'll win as they seem to be able to up the tempo in the 2nd half.

Gl anyways.
Report Rocketfingers September 19, 2012 4:29 PM BST
That's my opinion i think little things like that no matter how much a manager in any sport says the players are not over confident they live amongst the people i think it creeps in. That's just my opinion Monte and it's an opinion i have no matter what sport it is. Also the other thing i think will be interesting is them be big favs for the final, interesting how they handle it. It will be a cracker and i think i'd like Mayo to win it because they have lost so many, but i cheered on Donegal in every match they played this year so i would not begrudge them the win either. Should be a cracker.
Report kingrat September 19, 2012 6:54 PM BST
ah bardo?hoping the hype gets into the minds of the donegal players and maybe their hunger.......yre reaching big time.mcguinness simply will not allow that to happen,to him thats basic.my view is take the profit now......in running ,u might be able to squeeze an extra couple of ton but if mayo go evens they can probably win ,so whats the point?
Report lustrumm September 19, 2012 9:06 PM BST
U seem to bit of a novice punter Bardo (for example why would you be covering the draw when you are on outright)
If you lay out more money on the draw and the favorites win (still the most likely result even if most of us think they are too short)

There is no need to play the draw as your main bet stands for the next day in that event
Report benny_ROBS_roy September 19, 2012 11:12 PM BST
why didnt u just back each way at the start of the year, would have saved you all the greening out strife
Report wildmanfromborneo September 20, 2012 12:13 AM BST
Excellent contribution benny Robs,he should have done it each way,he should have had a grand on as well and nominated the two finalists as well,he would be sitting pretty now.
Report Bassanio September 20, 2012 12:17 AM BST
If he done it each way he will have banked the place part.

That still leaves him with the win part which he is fully entitled to evaluate at the current odds.
Report Inthemiddle September 20, 2012 12:58 AM BST
I have the green and red backed at 24.0 what will I do :)  ....... Grow a set!!!!! If they went at quarter or semi my dough would be done.... Stick it out Bardo, (obviously you would like green) but at current prices unless you planned getting out (for equal profit) when you placed the bet in the first place (very doubtful) the very most you should do now is get your stake IMO...
Report Rocketfingers September 20, 2012 1:39 AM BST
Antepost each way bets are thing i usually hate although rather bet them in sport than horse racing.
Report paddletoe September 20, 2012 11:57 PM BST
With the greatest of respect asking how you can guarantee 900 as your bet stands is a bit like asking advice on how to turn a five quid note into a tenner. It is not possible.

As it stand right now you have a monkey in your picket if you want it. That is the total value of your bet. Not even God can turn it into 900.

One option would be to take ladbrokes special of any team winning by less than 4 points and if Mayo win within that spread you scoop both bets and end up with more than 1800.

The only thing you have any control over with your bet is how important the 500 quid which your bet in now worth means to you. The 100 quid stake is irrelevent. Your now have 500. If you would not normally put that ammount on a bet then take the money and whatever happens in the match is irrelevent.
Report paddletoe September 21, 2012 12:00 AM BST
sorry just to correct what i said if any team wins by less than 4 points you scoop both bets if you decide to lay off that way so you dont even need Mayo to win in order to land your ante post bet.
Report paddletoe September 21, 2012 12:06 AM BST
A common falacy in betting is that you always need an edge in any bet you do. Thats mostly the case but not always. Sometimes if you have expectation of winning a big bet it makes sense to tae the worst of it in betting terms and give willingly give away some value.

If i was on deal or no deal and had two boxes left, one with a penny and the other box with 250,000 i could personally not turn down the bankers offer of 100,000 eventhough i would be giving away some value. But thats an extreme example.
Report paddletoe September 21, 2012 12:18 AM BST
If your going to lay off on Mayo you should do so on the 70 minutes market. That way if it finishes a draw you win that money but your outright bet on Mayo is still going. Moreover if it did finish a draw the odds on Donegal would be a bit longer in the reply.
Report Rocketfingers September 21, 2012 12:49 AM BST
I agree with that paddletoe, i had this chat with a friend a few days ago if you want to get big money down or bigger than normal down on something you have to be prepared to give away a bit of value or more of the value than you usually do. Top posts !
Report bardo September 21, 2012 4:43 AM BST
Lustrumm : Yes my main bet is on Mayo outright but depending on how I choose to play this, if i bet against Mayo I can get a much better price of 8-15 for Donegal to win the match itself in 70 mins rather than just 4-9 for Donegal to lift the trophy, so it makes sense to cover the draw currently available at best price 10-1. At the least I would recover my stake money.

Also I reckon this game will be very very close with only a point or two in it at the end so why not back the draw now at 10-1, and then lay it for a decent profit in the last few minutes.
Report db1974 September 21, 2012 12:24 PM BST
bardo - just because you hope that the game will be close doesn't mean that it will be. You are looking at the situation with EURO signs in your eyes now and not objectively. Now you can take a chance with winning margins etc and hope that your opinion is right for the second time and cover yourself or you could be wrong and end up with nothing.

There are 2 extremes here and a middle option

1st extreme - back Donegal so that if Donegal win you break even
Bet €225 on Donegal at 8/15 and €25 on Draw at 9/1

If Donegal win you get back €345 from €350 staked (€100 on Mayo, €225 on Donegal, €25 on Draw) which is a loss of €5
If Mayo win you get back €1,900 from €350 staked which is a profit of €1,550
If it's a Draw you get back €250 (covers Donegal stake) and get to go again in 3 weeks time


2nd extreme - back Donegal so that if Mayo win you break even
Bet €1,620 on Donegal at 8/15 and €180 on Draw at 9/1

If Donegal win you get back €2,484 from €1,900 staked which is a profit of €584
If Mayo win you get back €1,900 from €1,900 staked which is a break-even situation
If it's a Draw you get back €1,800 and get to go again in 3 weeks time


Middle ground - equal profit irrespective of result
Bet €1,240 on Donegal at 8/15 and €140 on Draw at 9/1

If Donegal win you get back €1,901 from €1,480 staked which is a profit of €421
If Mayo win you get back €1,900 from €1,480 staked which is is a profit of €421
If it's a Draw you get back €1,400 and get to go again in 3 weeks time


So to sum up
Max profit if Donegal win - stake €1,620 on Donegal & €180 on Draw
Equal profit - stake €1,240 on Donegal & €140 on Draw
Max profit if Mayo win - stake €225 on Donegal & €25 on Draw


Personally I still like my original selection to win in this situation but I want to get something out of it so I would stake €750 on Donegal & €85 on the Draw which gives

Mayo win - Return of €1,900 from €935 staked = profit of €965
Donegal win - Return of €1,150 from €935 staked = profit of €215
Draw - same again next time

Alternatively, if you staked €900 on Donegal & €100 on the Draw, this gives

Mayo win - Return of €1,900 from €1,100 staked = profit of €800
Donegal win - Return of €1,380 from €1,100 staked = profit of €280
Draw - same again next time
Report paddletoe September 21, 2012 8:50 PM BST
When it comes to betting there are two main skills you need to pay the bills. One is knowing when you have an edge in the odds and thats down to good judgement. The second is money manangement and thats down to good discipline.

Personally i dont see any value in this game in a betting sense. Think the odds are on the money. Its only a simple matter of doing the maths to work out how much you want to dilute your current profit from your original bet. Thats a money management proposition and only the OP knows how important any expectational profit or loss is.

Have to say when you backed Mayo 6 months ago it was very unlikely that they were going to be any less than 2/1 in the final if they got that far. So if it was always your intention to dilute your profit if they made the final you were only ever getting 4/1 on them to reach the final and it would have been less had they been up against one of the bigger named teams in the final.
Report winston September 21, 2012 9:00 PM BST
top
Report paddletoe September 21, 2012 10:16 PM BST
My last post on this topic as i can only speak for myself if my curent situation was that i needed to make some money from this bet.

Goes without saying successful betting is all about taking advantage of edges. Without knowing how to finding value then your not going to have a very good business model. But from my own experience i think the emotions and pscology of betting is very important and often overlooked.

I am good at finding value and disciplined in money management but for all that it still does not preclude me from going on tilt every few months. Normally after a losing run eventhough i may have done nothing wrong - just hit some bad luck variance.

Getting back to the original post if i needed to trade out on this bet i would bear in mind how i would feel on the basis on which way i decided to trade out.

If i traded out too much on Mayo i would worse if they won than i would if i traded out smaller on Donegal and they won. This has nothing to do with value but more to do with your mood after the game. Make no mistake about it betting  does affect your mood if you lose and swings in mood is not good for a balanced lifestyle in gambling.

If your single, young and have no responsibilities its not as important but when your mood swings affect other people you have to have respect for that otherwise you are self indulgent.


Anyway good luck.
Report reb September 21, 2012 11:34 PM BST
Very good general advice there, paddletoe. I think successful gamblers dislike losing far more than they like winning.
Report lukekelly88 September 22, 2012 6:48 AM BST
David Clarke to be booked 15/2..friends with the lad and he said he's going to have an earful at the ref during the match nd get booked. I have 1k on it,get on lads it's with p power
Report bardo September 22, 2012 2:10 PM BST
cheers for all the advice lads.. much appreciated
Report Bassanio September 22, 2012 7:20 PM BST
Is there a link where we can see who has been booked this season or the total number of bookings?
Report Steveirll September 22, 2012 10:40 PM BST
i cant see Donegal losing
Report Steveirll September 22, 2012 10:55 PM BST
luke dont be silly
Report Steveirll September 22, 2012 10:57 PM BST
I think Michael Murphy will have a decent shout of MOTM
Report paddletoe September 23, 2012 12:17 AM BST
I have had very strong opinions in all of Donegals championship matches this year, fancying them strongly to beat Tyrone and Kerry but having a decent bet on Cork to beat them in the semi final.
The are deserving favourites for the final but its match i have absolutely no strong opinion based on the odds.
A lot of people have compared Donegals style of play to Tyrone at their peak but i dont see any comparison. Donegals are a lot more physical and super fit while Tyrone had a lot more pace and blessed with three great players whose careers overlapped.
Donegal have evolved their playing style a lot from last year and all for the better. I dont think they are at all a dull team to watch as some people think. Doengal not only beat Tyrone, Kerry and Cork this year - they beat all three into total submission. You have to say though all three of those past winners are ageing teams and Mayo are a lot younger and hungrier.

I have not seen any betting for player of the year but my vote would go to the young lad Mc Hugh. He has been brilliant in every match i have watched. He is rightly plauded for his work rate in playing deep but he has a part in nearly all of Donegals scores.
Report paddletoe September 23, 2012 12:25 AM BST
The one negative i see from a Donegal point of view is their lack of goal scoring threat. When you look at recent past winners, Tyrone, Kerry, Cork and Dublin they all had very good goal scoring forwards.
Report db1974 September 23, 2012 4:52 PM BST
OP, what did you do in the end?
Report moneypenny September 23, 2012 6:11 PM BST
unlucky bardo
Report Steveirll September 23, 2012 6:43 PM BST
who gets MOTM ? For me either McFadden or Michael Murphy.
Report bardo September 23, 2012 6:49 PM BST
in the end i decided to let the bet run...i could never get a decent price on Donegal coz of the great start they made

I went heavy on under 31.5 pts so at least I made a profit from the day.
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