Galway 6.05

I'm not going up to the track this year, but had looked at the stats on this race a few years ago and dug them out the computer last night!!
It's a poor enough race this year, with top- rated only 98 (worst in last 14 years) - in fact apart from 2004 (when top-rated was 99) top-rated has always been at least 104 or more.

These are just my take on the stats over the last 14 years

1.    Midnight Music   

Positives:

Course: Course winner at the recent July Festival over 16f on good off a mark of 82 (QR race) 
Trip: fine – also won over 12f on yielding at Leopardstown last October
Form: has run 5 times this season, trips of 9f to 16f (on going ranging from Good out to soft), winning once and placed 3 times
Stamina: loads of stamina
Sex: fillies have a great record in this race
Going: loves G-F
Aids: First time use of a combination of blinkers and Tongue tie may bring further improvement
Rating: joint top-rated - Only 3 top rated horses have won in the last 14 years BUT all 3 of those wins were on going described as soft or worse

Negatives:

Weight: Top weight has only won three times in last 14 years
Age: a 4yo (3yos have a slight edge over 4yos)
Trainer: does not have a good record in this particular race, only 1 winner (Mutakarrim in 2001 (not favourite) & same horse 2nd in 2002) from last 13 attempts (no runner in 2007) – hits the crossbar so to speak!
2nd in 2000 (beaten fav @ 11/8), 2nd in 2002, 3rd 2003, 2nd 2004, 2nd 2005, 3rd 2008 (beaten fav @ 7/4) & 2nd 2010 (beaten jfav @ 9/4) – other years unplaced


2.    Chamonix             

Positives:

Age: a 3yo (seem to have an edge over older horses)
Trip: hasn’t won at this Distance, but over slightly further (14f maiden on yielding)
Jockey: Joseph picks him over Demurely (prob can’t do the weight on the filly, no might not be a positive!!)
Trainer: has an ok record in this race – 25% strike rate - 2 winners (Theatreworld in 1999 [fav] & Honoria in 2008) from 8 renewals over the last 14 years [had no runners in the race for 6 of the 14 years] [14 runners over the 8 years]

Negatives:

Sex: colts have a poor record in the race winning only once in the last 14 years, but with no geldings in the race, I’d be less concerned about this stat
Going: unknown
Form: only 2 run this season, very little to go on and never raced as a 2yo – the 2 runs this season were both maidens
Rating: Unrated - Only 1 unrated horse has won in the last 14 years (1998)
Course: never raced at the track
   
3.    Macbeth             

Positives:

Age: a 3yo
Going: fine on soft, but may not want it heavy
Trip: fine – won last week over 12f on soft at Roscommon (conditions race)

Negatives:

Sex: colt – see above about Chamonix
Course: never raced at the track
Form: raced 6 times this season – 3 times in Group 3’s (not good enough) – 1 in a listed event at Leopardstown over 11f on heavy (2nd of 9 beaten nearly 4ls)

4.    Demurely       

Positives:

Age: a 3yo
Going: should be fine – won her maiden in June on soft over 11f
Sex: fillies have a great record in this race
Trip: trip should be fine
Form: Unraced as a 2yo - Appears to have been used as a pacemaker of sorts for more fancied stable-mates – beaten 7½ls lto by Sapphire (rated 112) in the Cork G3 early August over trip and likely going today of sft/hy (reads well imo) – Seamie on board for the 1st time today and would have a chance if not used as a pacemaker for Chamonix
Trainer: ok record in this race (see Chamonix above)
Rating: joint top-rated - Only 3 top rated horses have won in the last 14 years BUT all 3 of those wins were on going described as soft or worse

Negatives:

Course: never raced at the track

5.    Eternal Bounty             

Positives:

Sex: fillies have a great record in this race
Age: a 3yo
Jockey: Lordan picks her over Jessie Jane
Going: seems to handle the likely going

Negatives:

Form: 4 races this summer all on bad ground – 3 of those were in G3’s (not good enough) & 1 a listed event over today’s trip at Roscommon (3rd beaten ¼l) on sft/hy – probably will be held by Demurely on their running in the G3 at Cork at beginning of August (2½ls behind)
                Course: never raced at the track
Trip: hasn’t won at the Distance, but was very close at Roscommon earlier in the summer
Aids: Blinkers tied lto are discarded and cheek-pieces are re-applied   

6.    Jessie Jane             N/R


Odds:
Only 3 favourites have won this race in the last 14 years = 21% (very poor record)
However, 2 of those 3 winning favourites came when the ground was soft or worse

Betting:
Midnight Music is best priced 2/1 fav (as low as 7/4 with others)
Chamonix 2/1 2nd fav (9/4 with others)
Macbeth 4/1 (high of 9/2 with others)
Demurely 5/1 (4/1 with others)
Eternal Bounty 10/1
Jessie Jane N/R

Verdict:

I think the race is between Midnight Music & Demurely with preference for the former unless I knew for sure that Demurely wouldn’t be sacrificed for her stablemate.
Will probably lay Chamonix

g/l