Irish Sports
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St.Leger Trip-1M 6F 132Yards
How solid is his form and how well is he going to stay this trip?
It's so unusual for a horse to have the speed to win a guineas and the stamina to win a leger, triple crown not having been achieved in 42 years.The leger is almost 3 furlongs longer than the derby and impressive derby winners such as Shergar have failed to see out the trip.
Epsom Derby
1.Camelot
2.Main Sequence-Subsequently has run creditably in a group 1 in France behind Imperial Monarch.
3.Astrolgy-beaten 10 lengths in a group 2 at Ascot
4.Thought Worthy-Third of 5 in a group 2 at Ascot
5.Mickdaam-Not run since,previously won a group 3 at Chester by a nose.
6.Bonfire-Beaten 18 lengths in eclipse
7.Minimise Risk-Beaten 10 lengths in a Group 3.
8.Rugged Cross-Beaten in a listed race at Pontefract
9.Cavaleiro-8th in a Group 3
Irish Derby
1.Camelot
2.Born to Sea-Beaten 7 lengths in a Group 2 by Famous name
3.Light Heavy-6th in a Group 3
4.Akeed Mofeed-Won a listed race at Cork.
5.Astrology
Pedigree
Dam-Tarfah
Won five of her 8 racecourse starts including a group 3 over 9 Furlongs-Never ran over further.
Grand-Dam-Fickle
Ran 5 times including a listed win over a mile.
In my opinion Camelot has yet to really show how well he truly stays 12f because of the limited opposition he has faced.The assumption is that being by Montjeu that Camelot should have no problem staying,but to me he does not look your typical Montjeu having showing the speed to win a guineas.
It is believed that the stamina of the dam is more relevant,looking at the other most recent Derby/Guineass winner -Sea the stars (by champion miler cape cross but out of the brilliant arc winning mare Urban sea-dam of Galileo also).
Tarfah(Camelot's dam) nor Fickle(Camelots Grand dam) were ever asked to race beyond 10 furlongs and as racehorses themselves the sires in the lower half of the pedigree were all sprinters or milers with the exception of Persepolis who won the Prix Lupin over 10 furlongs.
Camelot is currently trading on here at 1.57(Win) and 1.18(Place) but I believe his pedigree gives him very little chance of seeing out the near 15F trip.
How solid is his form and how well is he going to stay this trip?
It's so unusual for a horse to have the speed to win a guineas and the stamina to win a leger, triple crown not having been achieved in 42 years.The leger is almost 3 furlongs longer than the derby and impressive derby winners such as Shergar have failed to see out the trip.
Epsom Derby
1.Camelot
2.Main Sequence-Subsequently has run creditably in a group 1 in France behind Imperial Monarch.
3.Astrolgy-beaten 10 lengths in a group 2 at Ascot
4.Thought Worthy-Third of 5 in a group 2 at Ascot
5.Mickdaam-Not run since,previously won a group 3 at Chester by a nose.
6.Bonfire-Beaten 18 lengths in eclipse
7.Minimise Risk-Beaten 10 lengths in a Group 3.
8.Rugged Cross-Beaten in a listed race at Pontefract
9.Cavaleiro-8th in a Group 3
Irish Derby
1.Camelot
2.Born to Sea-Beaten 7 lengths in a Group 2 by Famous name
3.Light Heavy-6th in a Group 3
4.Akeed Mofeed-Won a listed race at Cork.
5.Astrology
Pedigree
Dam-Tarfah
Won five of her 8 racecourse starts including a group 3 over 9 Furlongs-Never ran over further.
Grand-Dam-Fickle
Ran 5 times including a listed win over a mile.
In my opinion Camelot has yet to really show how well he truly stays 12f because of the limited opposition he has faced.The assumption is that being by Montjeu that Camelot should have no problem staying,but to me he does not look your typical Montjeu having showing the speed to win a guineas.
It is believed that the stamina of the dam is more relevant,looking at the other most recent Derby/Guineass winner -Sea the stars (by champion miler cape cross but out of the brilliant arc winning mare Urban sea-dam of Galileo also).
Tarfah(Camelot's dam) nor Fickle(Camelots Grand dam) were ever asked to race beyond 10 furlongs and as racehorses themselves the sires in the lower half of the pedigree were all sprinters or milers with the exception of Persepolis who won the Prix Lupin over 10 furlongs.
Camelot is currently trading on here at 1.57(Win) and 1.18(Place) but I believe his pedigree gives him very little chance of seeing out the near 15F trip.
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Replies: 31
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thomas chippendale for me, his last run was a 12f G1. 12/1 EW is a safer option imo.
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17.0 on here.
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a very well thought out piece dj876....
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La dont forget whose training this fellow....... Remember Fame+Glory ?...........Ascot Gold Cup !!.....Yeats..... will be trained to stay and the opposition all 3yr olds will be very ordinary........... banker if it turns up..........
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Unlikely to get the trip in a truely run race, Imperial Monarch will get the trip and is Coolmore's best chance in the leger.
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they would never race him if they had any fear over him staying..
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not sure how good camelot truly is tbh. the 3 yr olds arent up to much. if he loses the st leger i dont see him not staying being the reason, the last furlong of his races look like his best ones to me.
heavy ground could catch him out, i think he'll win but wouldnt be backing at 1.5 for a race like the leger. |
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If the Master of Ballydoyle allows him to take his chance he will win. If they are happy with him between now and then and the ground is not heavy I think they will run him and he will win.The jury is certainly out on the standard of this seasons 3yo's but Camelot by far the best of them.
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Took an age to pick-up at Epsom.
If memory serves, Astrology traded sub-2.0 IR. I got the impression he'll get the better the further he goes. He handled some testing conditions at the Curragh LTO. I think he'll win if the ground isn't too soft. Whether he drifts on the day will depend on the ground and whether the 'Usual Suspects' decide to play. He isn't value at present at the price though, due to unknown future going conditions, which are unlikely to ease - just look at the 'Summer' to-date that IRE/UK has experienced... |
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It will be a sickener if he doesn't do the triple crown.
Nijinsky is known to us aulder lemons like workrider and myself but not to a generation of new racegoers.  The current generation need a triple crown winner NOW. |
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cheeky
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i think if u lay camelot now at its current bf price,yre best hope is ,it doesent show up on the day.imo camelot will be shorter on the day probably in a field of less than 10 runners and thus no option to trade.visually to my eye i am fairly certain camelot will stay ,on ability its the best horse in the race by a distance up against a mediocre lot ,no matter what turns up.plus ground wouldnt concern me after the irish derby.the pedigree angle to say a horse will or wont stay is only a small guiding factor,its too inconlusive to make a definite decision.
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plus there is the possibility he could go for the irish champion stakes. if they choose that route....
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he will undoubtly trade at least twice his price in running, as he will be asked to go and win at somestage so if u wanted a win/win id lay him at 1.5 and back him at 2.5 or 3.
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I will be truly amazed if Camelot runs in the classic for sires of handicap hurdlers. At the moment it is good publicity for ladcrokes but cant see any reason why they would run him it it.
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I just had another look at the Irish derby,I think the first two fell over the line in terrible ground..Legless.
Born to sea has subsequently been hammered in a group 2 by famous name. How much will that run in bottomless ground have taken out of Camelot??Ok break,but will it leave a mark?? Doncaster 15th September,Longchamp-7th October-Ok Aidan is going to have him fit at Doncaster but will he think we can win this @95% and peak at Longchamp?? This race looks like deciding trainers championship,Gosden has a brilliant recent record in the race and with three of his prominent in the betting all dour stayers,will surely make this a thorough test of stamina. |
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Another major pointer to the Leger is going to be the Great Voltigeur at York next week.
Epsom Derby runner up Main sequence,noble mission,thomas chippendale,encke and shantaram are all entered. |
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well,if yre going in large on the lay now,yre guessing if camelot goes another route and if not trade higher in running in the st leger,that is simply not good enough for me.i never as a rule second guess this outfit but i get the vibe that they want the triple crown
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What are you on about KINGRAT??I need a translator for your incoherent ramblings.
I think Camelot will run at Doncaster but just don't think he will stay the near 15f. |
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ok dj,ya old fart,the world dosent revolve around u,i was direcing my comments to slick,buses and ark,shavi?
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i dont see how anyone can know if he'll stay or not at this stage! he runs right to the line bar the irish derby in bottomless ground and he wont run if the ground is the same. he has as much chance of staying as anyone else only hes a duel derby winner! easily the best 3 yr old around so far but his price reflects his chance unfortunately. having said that id lay him and back him in running as mentioned earlier as its impossible for me to see him travel 15f without the occassional spike in the graph such is the field size and distance. that and the fact he still has questions over the trip but as far as derby winners go he looked above average to me regardless of the tripe that was in behind him. only time will tell i suppose.
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and yes he may not even lineup for donny. i dont see how winning the triple crown can harm his chances as a sire. hes already won the guineas and both derbies, in this case winning at donny can only ENHANCE his reputation as a sire. why not have a horse that has won the 3 legs instead of just 2? but youd have to be mad steaming in at 1.5 and esp at this stage given he might not turn up! but i think most prob feel that way!
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ILWAB
You can win a race without truly staying a trip??Because of being so far superior to the opposition,he still won at the Curragh but they were not Group 1 horses behind him. "he runs right to the line bar the irish derby"-That only leaves Epsom over 12F which was on Good to firm ground?? Would it not be a concern that the dam and grand dam never raced further than 9f?? |
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yes i agree a horse can win a race over an inadequate trip on pure ability.
there will always be a worry, and as i said id lay him with the intent that he will be pushed along and asked to win, maybe he wont stay but if its good ground i dont see him stopping personally! i still wouldnt touch him with a barge pole at 1.5 because theres such an unknown! i think hes a bit special personally and will win on good ground, i hope so! |
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Impressive gallop at Leopardstown today,murdered Fame & Glory.
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Yeah,chamonix seemed at have went a good pace as well,no rain there yet.
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Murdering Fame and Glory is hardly something to get excited about.
If Fame and Glory is at the state of readiness that he is usually at for a prep race, then beating him is nothing. If he is at a state of readiness that you would expect him to be at for a prep for a prep (if he is due to run in the Irish St Leger trial) then anything less than a sound thrashing would be desperately disappointing. |
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He did it on the bit,make out of it what you like.
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Guineas winner v Ascot gold cup winner = Usain Bolt v Mo Farah
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dj876 16 Aug 12 14:09
I just had another look at the Irish derby,I think the first two fell over the line in terrible ground..Legless. Born to sea has subsequently been hammered in a group 2 by famous name. How much will that run in bottomless ground have taken out of Camelot??Ok break,but will it leave a mark?? ------ a 12 week break is sufficent for any horse to recover from a race. |
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 -Beat nothing all season!! |