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timberman
28 Jul 12 20:53
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Date Joined: 12 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 2,731 | Blogger: timberman's blog
Cork V Kildare
Donegal V Kerry

Dublin V Laois
Mayo V Down

good draw for Dublin...top half is some minefield

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Replies: 16
By:
GANT007
When: 28 Jul 12 20:56
The Dubs will be smiling.........
By:
Blackwater
When: 28 Jul 12 21:06
Unlucky for Donegal. They will probably have to beat Kerry, Cork and Dublin to lift Sam.

What price that treble?
By:
ChildOfMine2
When: 29 Jul 12 00:15
PP have All Ireland SFC Quarters already priced up:
4/9 Cork v 9/4 Kildare; 8/11 Kerry v 11/8 Donegal; 1/9 Dublin v 15/2 Laois; 4/7 Mayo v 7/4 Down

Donegal at 11/8 must be a crackin bet :)
By:
Eminem_Junior
When: 29 Jul 12 01:16
id be very surprised if donegal went off lower than 2.38 here
By:
Blackwater
When: 29 Jul 12 03:11
The absolutely crazy price there is Dublin 1/9.

The Dubs were around 4/11 to beat Meath in the Leinster final last week, and I don't see how anyone could argue that Laois are a much weaker side than Meath.

The handicap is 7 points (wasn't it around 3 last week?) and that's just as hard to understand.
By:
timberman
When: 29 Jul 12 08:54
Cork outright at 7/2 ..4.5 here is the best o/r value...they will beat kildare ..so will be 2/1 at semi stage even if Kerry & Dublin remain....Laois if its true plus 7 v Dublin sounds a great bet too..
By:
timberman
When: 29 Jul 12 09:00
Cork minus two v kildare at 10/11 also a great bet...
By:
Blackwater
When: 29 Jul 12 14:54
I think you're right, Timberman. 7/2 Cork on the outright market is a very fair price. 1/2 to beat Kildare seems pretty generous too, given that Kildare needed extra-time last week to get past mighty Limerick.

The price in the outright market that seems to be most out of line, though, is probably Donegal.

Plenty of pundits have been tipping them up, but the fact is they're at least 6/4 to beat Kerry. Make it the same price to beat Cork in the semi's, and perhaps evens against Dublin in the final, and that a near 12/1 treble.

Even allowing for the fact that Dublin and Cork still have to win their games, 7/1 Donegal seems way too short given the way the fixtures have fallen.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 29 Jul 12 14:56
Donegal only dangers to Cork.
By:
workrider
When: 29 Jul 12 14:59
going to have a look at this ....see what all the fuss is about....
By:
workrider
When: 29 Jul 12 14:59
sorry wrong thread...
By:
johnslad
When: 29 Jul 12 19:04
Blackwater
Date Joined: 13 Jan 09
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29 Jul 12 14:54
Joined:
13 Jan 09
|Plenty of pundits have been tipping them up, but the fact is they're at least 6/4 to beat Kerry. Make it the same price to beat Cork in the semi's, and perhaps evens against Dublin in the final, and that a near 12/1 treble.  Topic/replies: 1,102 | Blogger: Blackwater's blog                                                                                                           that would be 70 min play where ur not allowing for the draw, outright markets for those matches would be nearer 7/1 less maybe if the teams you stated didn't all progress
By:
Blackwater
When: 29 Jul 12 20:14
Fair enough, there are all kinds of ways the results can shake out.

But Donegal are 13/8 with Boils this evening, which suggests they will be at least 7/4 on the exchanges.

With that as the first leg of the treble, it would be surprising if backing then match by match didn't add up to more than the current ante-post price of 7/1.

And if you expect Dublin or Cork to falter (could happen) then there are probably better ways to play that than by backing Donegal.

Onviously this isn't intended as any sort of knock against the Ulster champions, it's just that they have landed a brutal draw and I don't think the market has fully factored it in yet.
By:
Cupwinkcook
When: 29 Jul 12 20:25
agree with blackwater, playing donegal match by match is the way to go if you fancy them
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 29 Jul 12 20:55
The bets are related,if Donegal were to trounce Kerry that would cause a major contraction of their price.
They are massively overpriced at 13/8 to beat Kerry.
The two best teams will meet in the semi final,the Cork Donegal semi final will yield the All Ireland winner.
By:
mayway
When: 30 Jul 12 18:00
Superb draw. The hapless Kerry will be mercilessly drubbed. I can't wait.
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