4:30 redcar saturday advise needed

Irish sweatheart is a horse ive been following for a good while,been running in much better company than whats he ben running against on saturday,been running in some very hard handicaps holding his own,now on saturday taken a huge drop in class into a claimer,thinking off having a very large bet,so advise needed please what some of the forum experts thing of the chances and race in general,thanks in advance