Knockfierna.

Sir Des Champs is a much better horse on better ground and Knockfierna was flattered to be giving him a race at Limerick. She may well remember the fence she ran out at, but it would be reasonable to presume that the rider will be well tuned into this possibility too and will be aiming for the middle of the fence. I expect Knockfierna to win well, but I won't be taking a strong position. GL.

She looked impressive today

Bad luck wmfb.
But you'll have to subtract this one from the countless winning tips you brag about I'm afraid!

Luck had nothing to do with it,Redbait called it right and Geraghty was waiting for her,she was definitely thinking about it going into that fence.
Giant Strides the laying has been a big loser for me,last Cheltenham laid Ruby Walsh as top jock because i thought he was carrying an injury,laid Hurricane Fly because i thought he wouldn`t get up the hill,laid Quevega because of her lack of a run that cleaned me out.Went skint again laying Redera in Roscommon vowed never to lay again but it kind of sneaks back up on you,had a few small victories and one big one with Silver Concorde but overall i wish i stuck to the punting.

wmfb,Did u not just stick a lay in of the range of 1.08 and hold??

No i laid it at all rates from 1.76 to 1.83.
I should have stuck to your two lays would never have had a moments worry.

I wouldn't say that Mullins horse in the first matched at 1.36 and got it emphatically wrong with folsom blue.
It is especially easy to say with hindsight, but It was a strange lay giving her overall profile and how solid she was in the market.
Jp's mare in the novice hurdle drifted from 1.9 to 3.2 and ran accordingly.

I think laying is the hard bit,the winning layers here are those in the know.I come across lots of horses i don`t fancy but the price you have to go is just too high.I was at Thurles when King of the Refs through the towel in so i was in agreement with you today but felt the value wasn`t there.
I have been advised to never ever lay on the place market as that is only for people in the know,would be interested in other peoples opinion on place laying.

I was only on the wind up wmfb.
I actually agreed and thought there were enough winners in there to trouble her if below par.
My week went from bad to worse.
I also agree with not laying in the place market. Very rarely works for me.

Very rarely place lay myself,suppose its a consideration if there is ground/attitude/jumping/distance issues,probably they are already priced in in any case. A place back is a different matter think they can be a bit of value at times if you fancy one to be therabouts.(odds against/evens pretty happy 4.10 lim?)
Think  Dj876 was right that you were always going to get a "cheaper" lay i/r,maybe a place lay was the way to go if you were thinking she could duck out again.Always was a chance she didn,t perform or mishap early. Easy in hindsight and whats right one day is wrong the next,great performance from her.

i too rarely lay but if i do its always odds on and tends to be in running.

may aswell wait instead of laying the same horse at odds against because if its going to win its going to win so i may aswell limit my liability.

i believe trading is the way to go. lay odds on and green up in the run and vice versa. its less fun but satisfying if u get it right. the market is also so volatile your chances of getting match are quite good IF u arent too greedy AND the race is run the way u anticipated. imo trading is the future, imagine being able to make money from horse racing regardless whether your horse wins or loses....amazing isnt it!

let me know if u meet anyone, i wanna shake their hand

night all!

^ I suppose "Trading" would be regarded as a dirty word to the purists as put simply one is making money on the back of someone elses money ie buying a bet and selling it back cheaper.Personally i,ve no qualms with it,dog eat dog world on here and up to an individual to do whatever he wants on here to minimise losses/make a profit.Anyway it was actively encouraged by BF themselves as one was supplied with a dvd on joining taking one through the process of "greening up".
Don,t do a lot of trading myself on the horses,saying that love the two days before the National and have a go at it then think its quite easy to have half the field running for you for a minimal outlay.
Golf is a sport made for trading(somehow i get the feeling you would rather do anything than watch that Ilwab)
Just on an overview,tough economic times and its reflected on here by markets getting weaker in my view since joining.You have a good head on you and know your racing,i,d say you will make a fair fist of it,Good luck with the holy grail.

Quite simply betfair is the biggest con that was ever invented in gambling,and unfortunately most people cannot see it even though its as blatant as the nose on ones face.The ordinary betfair punter is trading with people who have prior knowledge of the event they are betting on.Quite simply in the long run betting in running they simply get picked off time after time by fast picture people,be it horses,golf,snooker,whatever the sport it doesnt really matter.Betfair will encourage in running ,of course they will.After all they get half the money and more off the fast picture winners who clean out all the ordinary mugs day in day out.The propaganda attached to in running keeps the myth alive that there is always a 1.01 loser to be laid and a 1000/1 winner is only just around the corner.Its common sense that you simply cannot win betting on something thats live to somebody else and not live to you,a baboon could tell you as much.There are always the idiots who say they can win leaving up bets,the idiots who greened out on a subsequent loser at 1.2 when the real price should have been 1.02,the idiots who laid 1.06 before the horse jumped the last when in reality he was already over it when the bet was matched.It is impossible to win betting in running unless you have the best equipment and the fastest pictures,anybody using any other method who thinks they can win is seriously deluded.

haha i do like golf pa lapsy but never have a bet on it. im not a keen trader either but i do feel getting in and out of the market quickly is the key to making long term profit weather youre backing a 2/1 shout that should be bigger or laying a 1.06 shot that shot that should be smaller.

at the end of the day its just an opinion unless the horse is about to cross the line in slpendid isolation and youre laying at 1.06.

sometimes i find it difficult to equate what a horses ACTUAL chance of winning is at a particular time whether it be in running or before the race. nobody ever KNOWS the chance of a said horse winning unless its a bogey race and theres only ever gonna be one winner.

thats the beauty of the sport, although its clearly NOT a level playing field, there are still 100% live players doing their balls everyday against people who have slower pictures, i guess the % is prob a lot less but such is the nature of the sport this is no doubt happening. how many horses often look like the winner only to get beat, sometimes easily and not even in the frame.

i would not put people off trading without fast pics because very often u can back a horse bigger mid race for absolute no apparent reason, it will just naturally trade bigger or smaller (for laying). it will be going perfectly well at the time ao why is this horse that maybe started 7/1 now trading 8/1 just because the race is in motion? no other reason.

the danger is getting involved at the business end when the live pics have clear advantage.

as i said i rarely trade, but i do back and lay in running depending on how i think a race is going to pan out, why not? if my horse is going to be ridden out the back just like it always is, why not get the bigger in running price even tho the market knows how it will be ridden, u still PRACTICALLY ALWAYS get layers wanting to take it on because theyre turning in and its still 10L down on the field.

thats just my opinion. im not saying its wise to TAKE ON on track players but  dont see them as having too much of an effect on the way i look at a race. i just look at the race and decide if i think a said horse will get an easy lead, so ill lay it in running because its even money now and if he goes off in front hes gonna trade shorter win or lose anyway. i think punters should look at this so even if it wins, u laid it at 1.5 instead of its ACTUAL 1/1  chance of winning according to the market. as i said its based on opinion, i dont always believe what the market is telling me, how do the layers and backers know a particular horse has X chance of winning at a particular time.. they dont, there will always be huge mistakes both ways, this is why horses trade short and lose and vice versa.

but mincer is correct to a point, if u are just jumping in with both feet without no research and taking what u see on a tv at face value u will not beat them!

cheers

I don,t disagree with what you are saying,last night on the golf 5 figure sums were flying in sometimes a minute,two or even more before a shot was broadcast "live" on sky and has been the case for months.Only way to play it is leave nothing up or bet straight after a shot.(the delay can be so bad they can actually have taken the next shot).In regards horse racing i seldom do in-running mainly for your reasons and certainly not in latter stages of a race."Prior knowledge" has always been a part of racing,its a difficult one you can get a smell at times,think its quite prevalent at the moment in lower class British racing where a £1500 first prize is common and thats not saying it doesn,t happens here.
Case of buyer beware with in running and no harm to highlight it.

ilikewavingatthebuses,the scenario you are pointing out will go exactly like this.Firstly most people who bet professionally in running will know running and riding styles of both horse and jockey.Just say for example you have a hundred at evens on a horse that you feel will be ridden very positively,in fact more than likely going to try and make all in what looks like an uncompetitive race.You then decide that you will put up an in running lay of a hundred at 1.5 so that you will have a free 50 bet as long as the race pans out as you expect.The horse lines up prominently and establishes an early lead,jumps the first two well and is now a considerable distance clear,travelling well and nice and settled and has established a beautiful jumping rhythm.Now the fast picture man steps in and backs a 1/4 shot at 1/2,the horse more than likely hoses up,and both yourself and the fast picture man bag 50 a piece,although you couldnt lose after 2 hurdles and he could.In reality neither of you could lose but that seems to go over most peoples heads.Now the other scenario is your horse gets pestered for the lead by some rag,runs free and starts to make mistakes,the fast picture man is not going to be so accomodating this time,no in fact this time he has turned full circle,he is laying the ghoul who is leaving up a back for the horse at 3.5 when in reality the horse is a 10/1 chance or more maybe.The end result that in the two seperate incidents you will give away half your profit when you win but lose all your stake when things go wrong.

yes!

i think regarding the golf, that it is absolutely madness. golf players at the course obv have a 100% no risk bet because they are viewing the result before it happens. thats like backing a horse thats already won.

the reason i like horse racing  for backing or laying in running is because the market has to make a split decision right away and there is inevitably going to be huge mistakes because it only takes one moment and then bam a spike in the graph, either up or down. sometimes a horse will go from 2/1 to 10/1 in a second and then back donw to 2/1 just because the jockey got trapped for a sec or whatever. i think that is the difference, the in running market over reacts both ways because it is impossible to gauge the chance of the horse in question in 1 second.

and im not claiming theres a holy grail. i just bet for fun, im not a big player but sometimes things can be too obvious or looked in to indepth. i couldnt even tell u if what i do is better for me long term.

but the way i see it, steer clear of betting in the final 3rd of a race and if u can get your 3/1 or 4/1 matched about the 5/2 chance pre race then why not. had u backed it at 5/2 and it got beat anyway u were always gonna do your dough in the first place.

again this is just something i look at in races. i dont do it all the time and its normally done when i have played the race out in my head and when it starts, its looking like i thought it would so if i see the price i want i try to get it, thats it really!

Pa lapsy,i am not talking prior knowledge as in knowing something about a horse before race.I am talking about laying a golfer to somebody who knows he has just chipped in from the fairway(as happened to me one night years ago),and also maybe laying a horse in a race when an obvious danger has just fallen,made a bad mistake,ran out etc,that kind of thing happens day in day out,race in race out.There is a certain feel good factor with greening out in an event but long term a more profitable option would be to let the event run its course.

yes i take your point mincer.

what i will say tho is, i dont usually put up my bet until the race has started and it isnt a trade. its usually just one bet win or lose. like the 2 scnarios u gave. i wouldnt normally have a prior back bet and then lay i-r at 1.5. i would simply have an opinion on a race i wanna lay this even money front runner, irregardless of the result in the end, i dont like him and i wanna be against him so when he hits 1.5 or whatever i believe to be a good time to lay him i do that. thats it, i dont do anything else, i let it ride. this is how i use in running. i dont wanna lay him at evens pre race when i can lay him at a shorter price. if hes gonna win hes gonna win no matter what i did!

ilikewavingatthebuses,everybody likes to do their own thing and thats fair enough,but quite simply if you keep backing horses that were 5/2 who are now 4 or 5/1 in running,then you cannot hope to win.The reason the animal has doubled in price is because it is not travelling as well as it should,if it was it wouldnt be that price,it hasnt doubled in price for no reason.

I know you weren,t ilwab,it seemed to me as if you were preparing to give it a go and it was just my way of hoping it works well for you.
Back to the national and the pre-race market seems to get influenced by trainers reports,media and most importantly by the wholesale cutting of prices by the books the few minutes before the off.

no but thats what im saying, sometimes the market is WRONG. sometimes a horse HAS doubled in price and is still on the bit!

If that is the case ilwaving,its more than likely the people laying it are the connections,they know that it wont be on the bit for too much longer.

and i mean i do most of my betting like many, i just place the bet and leave it. im not a trader, i have thought about it but i just dont have the time or equipment. i know my 23k + replies would say differently but im just finished up in college in the next few weeks and just dont have the time (or money) to be putting in for trading and looking in to fast pics etc.

i also wouldnt want this to be my job, gambling for a living. its stressful enough with my few bets without actually HAVING to rely on some bent jock getting my nag over the line first.

what i was explaining is just someting i do sometimes. i like meydan, if barzalona is up i know mine will be out the back but he rides the track well. my horse is even money pre race but i say it has to trade bigger, he'll be out the back coming wide late, i just think, i want 50 at 2.7. i will watch the race start (knowing its not live but i see where all the horses are placed early enough and watch the market), so when its starting to look like i have imagined, i put in a back, thats basically it. the horse usually runs its race win or lose. from my experience, the market ALWAYS over reacts to a particular degree and the there is always going to be a chance to back and lay at the 'wrong' price. as i said, sometimes i do it, sometimes i dont.

you might be right mincer!

nosedas with johnny up is terrible short in the 3.45. id be laying that one pre race if i was laying. i dont like noseda at all and dont respect him when the money is down but when murtagh is on i tend to leave well enough alone. has been working well apparently, someone put up a quote but 4/11 without ever having a race is just beyone my comprehension how anyone not related to that yard would be backing it!

jaysus ye are very fast with the typing,i,m miles behind.Apologies i got your point wrong Mincer(prior knowledge) and agree its tantamount to legalised stealing when privy to information that is not common knowledge.
Gl if going ahead with that lay,hate that track with a vengence,such a bias to the outside runners in the straight.

nah not bothering with the lay, not with johnny up

ye've hijacked the thread about this classy mare lads.she's creating quite a buzz round these parts.was in limerick the last day she won and there seemed to be a big crowd there in the ring after and a big crowd around it to welcome her back in.wonder if she'l head to fairyhouse for the powers with her 7pound claim.the race might cut up a bit with maybe flemenstar,call the police and rathlin those likely to be top of the market.she could well be capable of picking up some prizemoney and grade 1 black type if things fell for her on the day.any thoughts?

a fair point limerick, and quite right.

apologies!

haha,suppose we did limerick,The Sir des champs and shop dj form lines look very strong after Cheltenham.Looking down the line probably looking at good ground the way things are going,she seems to act on it with Golden sunburn runs but maybe better with cut?.Given her style of running of just sitting off the pace think she would be a danger to anything,still wouldn,t be convinced she wouldn,t chuck it if she came under pressure late on in that class.

I know it's a Limerick race too late for us but I felt she would do it again and it was a carbon copy of the Christmas run out,thought Geraghty should have had her on the outside to prevent history repeating itself.