How to make money at Cheltenham

And avail of the Paddy & Spoils free money offers on the opening day

PP shares have more than doubled in the last 5 years (they're a well-run company). I think you'll find similar returns for other months since 2007.

No doubt, Reb, though I would not be so confident of predicting them in advance.  March on the other hand.....

would not bank on the share price repeating the last five years seem to have taking their eye off the ball

last few weeks on the internet has been an absolute joke hope its improves for cheltenhaam or i will be avoiding them

But what wappens when SS HF Que SE and BB all trot up!

*happens

Usually is the up to the annual report at start of April and expected good results that boosts the share price.

results due this year March 5

itcanbedone, I suspect you may be one of the fortunate long-term shareholders.

An easier(no risk) way wud be to back sprinter sacre at top price (prob bf)and then back every other horse in the arkle with pp -Money back if sprinter sacre wins and also nrnb

Tried that one year dj (can't remember if it was Cousin Vinny or Dunguib or Cue Card).  It is a pain in the ass running around with a max 100 bet and you end up with feck all.  You face the quandry should you back all the other runners or leave a few rank outsiders out. Not worth the effort.

itcanbedone

Slightly contradicting yourself,ur proposed method has had an average return of 11% p.a(witout using a cfd or other leverage),and is as likely to cost u as it is to be profitablE.

Any method that is risk averse on these forums is frowned upon,but in my opinion the only way most can make this game pay in the long run  is by arbing and manipulating market prices.

don't think I am contradicting myself dj.  I am not limited to buying 100 Euro worth of stock am I?  Plus as you say, leverage can be used.

oh and dj, we know that your nominal return on Sprinter Sacre will be small, but show me your staking plan for the coup and let's see how your ROI% works out.

That said, I suppose in the Arkle, fewer genuine contenders than in a Supreme so easier to play with.

€100 EURO per shop
I done it within first couple of days of offer taking 9/2 al ferof,I think at this stage u wud be better off doing it on day cos powers are betting to 100% overound on first 4 in market and peddlers cross might be running in jewson which complicates the maths but are nrnb.

62 on ss @ 5/4 with bf,refund of 308 from pp)
112 on al ferof @3/1
100 on peddlers cross @7/2
55 0n cue card @7/1
41 0n menorah @ 10/1

370 to collect 450,but obv u have take on a good few which could do u,but also a fair chance of 100 back on peddlers cross if he should run in jewson(fairly likely).Not really worth doing now cos powers have shortened so many.

RE Arkle offers:
Given the odds and likely small field a locked in 15% to 20% profit is likely this year

It would be much better to back sprinter sacre online with spoils. If he comes second you have your money back with spoils as well as collecting off winner with flowers.

Winner Winner Chicken dinner

AGREE about the arkle M.P. there could be less then 8 runners so an e/w bet NOW on the horse you fancy with boyles or P.P  should pay .

Share price 45.10 today.  10% profit there, Gents should you wish to take it.  Not a bad return for 4 days.

The pinstripe suited itcanbedone has plenty of shares and was engaged in a scurrilous piece of ramping here,favours globalisation,extols the banking system and comes out with the classic defence when defending his actions "sure wouldn`t we all do it if we got the chance"
A life dedicated to the pursuit of money has rendered itcanbedone dull.lacking in imagination,amoral and generally unpopular.

My shoes could do with a good polishing, Wildman.  Would you mind?

I'll do them for 5 euro ?

Explain the 10% profit?

Obviously you are not referring to the rise in share price since Friday and you are referring to the leverage that you have used.

If you are buying the spread then the best that I currently can see is a 33 point spread on the rolling price, which you have to endure.

Are you saying that you managed to buy at the price listed in the first post on Friday afternoon and would have managed to close out that position this morning and secure 10% profit?

Thanks Reb, but Wildman's unkempt Trotskyite beard is ideal for bringing up the perfect shine.

The attitude of itcanbedone proves the point and encapsulates our countries problems.This sense of entitlement that this ruling elite and their cronies have has done some damage,we are now back to the 1950s in all our young people are emigrating and its heartbreaking.
Not surprising that Reb has offered his services,he needs a break from backing numbers in Paddy Powers causing a further rise in the shares.

DV, just a crude calculation (44.65 to 45.10, which it was when I last looked...45 cent gain). Wasn't about to pencil in obvious expenses of trading, for the purposes of discussion.

45 cent gain is 1% approx.

I am curious how you managed to leverage this up to 10% minus expenses, premiums, spreads etc.

Maths wouldn`t be their strong point thats how they computed their obscene bonuses,necromancy.

Again, fairly crude calculation DV, based on highly lev CFD over a very short period.  Admittedly, not that relevant to a retail investor.

I personally hold the underlying stock, with no leverage.  I guess for the purposes of this thread we should stick to basic return %.

So in other words your update this morning and the % involved were in no way connected with reality. How many idiotic individuals do you think invest via a highly leveraged CFD of the figures that you are trying to suggest these days?

I should have made that more clear in the earlier post this morning.  % returns quoted from now will be plain vanilla for the purpose of this experiment.

No by all means quote your 10 times leveraged CFD trader when you are providing updates. However can you provide an example of anyone that would be executing anything like such a trade these days. If there are any at all I would surprised, but in the most extreme examples, they would have very tight intra day stops and would be exceptionally skilled (insert crazy to be more appropriate)

You have stated yourself that you hold the underlying stock and are not leveraged so before you reply with patronising comments like I will use plain vanilla going forward, please remember that this is the return that you are getting and not the return that exists in a dream world that you may like to occupy.

Nothing patronising intended in the term 'plain vanilla' whatsoever.

As you say, it was a hypothetical trading strategy applied retrospectively.  All too easy to apply a very aggressive model when you know the market has moved in your favour.

Let's hope the end of month % return (unleveraged) can move towards the historical average.

Itcanbedone the factually incorrect,fiction loving,filibustering,free loading,fraudulent,fantasist is flummoxed,time for me to fold.

Lovely shine, wildman, thanks, see you same time next week xx

Joe Kennedy [father of JFK] was in itcanbedone fashion getting his shoes polished in the late twenties when the shoeshine boy engaged him in a long conversation on stocks and shares, when the polishing was complete he walked into his stockbrokers office and sold his stock,telling his stockbroker that the game is up when the shoeshine boy has joined in.The Wall street crash happened a year later.
A great pity the lessons of history was lost on us as the modern equivalent of the shoeshine boy joined the scramble for houses with the disastrous results.

Closed at 46.00.  Up 3% since March 1st.  I look forward to sharing a celebratory cigar with you, Wildman, before the end of the month.

I thought this tread was about How to make money at Cheltenham, Get yourself into a PP shop this afternoon where Ruby is PP guest [audio] today, PP will be Enhanceing Rubys tips.   

Using historical monthly data for a share price is not exactly the best way of predicting its future movements.While you're at it why don't you show the monthly house price increase for the same month for 2000 to 2007 and compare it with the decrease from 2008 to the present.Makes interesting reading especially for your "aggressive" investor.

Up 3.7% at 46.33 on eve of Cheltenham.

46.54 +4.2% (+2.4% today alone)

47.14 +5.6%

Time to wrap up the March experiment.

Closed today at 47.75.  A 7% return for the month.  Very satisfactory.