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Monte Christo
02 Jan 12 16:17
Date Joined: 17 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 6,180 | Blogger: Monte Christo's blog
Going to place a bet each week on the run up to Chelters to see how i fare.Last few years have been a bit of a minefield with non runners and the additional races clouding targets etc.

However with Ladbrokes going NRNB it will give a bit of a safeguard should anything untoward happen.Decided to start with the easier race imo.

1st Race World Hurdle

Oscar Whisky 1 pt e-w @ 5/1. Surely a bet to nothing.Looks a class horse with a lovely turn of foot who could give BB a race imo and is surely the only horse entered which could improve enough to beat BB.

Big Bucks - Seems bombproof and in his last two runnings he did not even hit his customary flat spot.However Nicholls has said he will run in the Cleeve Hurdle ( a race he by-passed in his last 2 seasons) which might leave it's mark. Maybe i'm clutching at straws there though.

1000 Stars - Admirable horse who won the county in 2010 and ran well in the 2011 CH.Is he classy enough to win this ?

Voler La Vedette - Tough mare who was well beaten by Quevega on her only previous appearance at the track.Big questions to answer at this level.

Rock on Ruby - maybe CH bound ?????

Mourad - 3rd last year but after a very disappointing run last time could not be backed with any great confidence

Any thoughts/opinions welcome lads.Feel free to post your own selections and we'll see who wins the most and give the books a good hiding.

I'll have a ganders at the Gold Cup now.
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Report Newmanix January 2, 2012 5:49 PM GMT
neill, what paper?
Report neill d January 2, 2012 5:51 PM GMT
Racing Post today, was in town so had a read and availed myself of some coffeeLaugh
Report ReimerpYsatnaf January 2, 2012 5:53 PM GMT
If you had a free bet of £50 to place on the Cheltenham Festival now who would you put it on?

Denis O' Regan - Sprinter Sacre. Straightaway and without a doubt. He's a machine.

Ruby Walsh - I'd take the 11/4 about Hurricane Fly and then double him with Big Bucks.
Report neill d January 2, 2012 6:01 PM GMT
Cheers, the er festivities have taken their tole on me.
Report dj876 January 2, 2012 6:02 PM GMT
HF best priced 11/4 with SJ ,3.55 on here
SS best priced 10/1 with coral,,9.4 avail on here
I am a massive spirit son fan-I think the form of the  first 4 home in last years supreme is rock solid.

Anyone know has waaheb had a setback?This year's supreme contenders don't look the strongest yet.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf January 2, 2012 6:05 PM GMT
I could not back Hurricane Fly ante post. No matter how much Willie tells us he just wasn't happy with the horse and he is nearly ready, i will believe it when i see him on a racecourse again in a race.
Report neill d January 2, 2012 6:10 PM GMT
Agree completely about Waaheb, if he jumps he'll be a monster, different dicipline I know, but didn't he wallop Cash and Go and EOG is on record as saying C&G's Leopardstown win was not unexpected. Waaheb is also available at 10's and that looks very good to me, just the fact that he didn't run in that 4yo maiden that Weld likes, he may go the flat staying route, plenty of handy 1m6f listed and Group 3 races in Ireland to be had and DK knows exactly what is required. this is why I haven't stepped in, oh and chronic financial shortage after ChristmasLaugh
Report dj876 January 2, 2012 6:15 PM GMT
14.5 available on waaheb to back for supreme,over the last few weeks there has always been money waiting to back at 14,15,16 etc and now today the shortest waiting to back him is at 40,wondering if news of a setback or injury is imminent?
Report neill d January 2, 2012 6:22 PM GMT
Just saw similar on ante post Chelts forum, seems I've dodged one so, really must research these things better, cheers, grand horse wherever he goes, I've also forgotten the fact he was sold to JP so yes hurdling must be the plan
Report dj876 January 2, 2012 6:22 PM GMT
Neil d -I don't think he will go the flat route cos I think jp would prefer to win supreme novices than a listed flat race imo.
He is a big weak horse but he's all class. He is a super leaper, he jumps like a stag and he could have a huge future over jumps. D K Weld,
This was said tho bf Weld's son sold him
He beat cash and go 9 lengths at limerick giving him 3lbs
Report dj876 January 2, 2012 6:24 PM GMT
Sorry there didn't see ur last post Neil d ,will check ante post forum thanks
Report neill d January 2, 2012 6:30 PM GMT
No bother, I usually need reminding these days because I'd read JP had bought him but forgot

I've my eye on one who is a little bit dark for the Byrne Group Plate over 3 miles, Premier Sagas is his name, Nicky Richards trains, ran well over what is probably an inadequate 2 and a half mile trip at Musselburgh yesterday. He wasn't disgraced in the |Centenary novices last year at the festival and generally I like the way he jumps and travels. I've a feeling Richards is prepping him for something and I think he could be a nice high 140's horse in time, just a hunch, I know the trainer doesn't have the ammo he once did, but I'd say this is one of his better inmates.
Report Monte Christo January 2, 2012 8:15 PM GMT
Cheltenham Gold Cup

Here are my thoughts and apologies for any glaring errors/omissions.

The contenders in betting order :

Long Run – 11-4 (9-4 lads) the reigning champion who despite making bad mistakes at two fences last year simply outstayed his older rivals on the run in.In two runs this year has been defeated twice by Kauto Star but in the King George he was gaining at the line despite not jumping as fluently.Surely the Gold Cup will play more to his strengths.SWC has taken a lot of criticism but he knows the horse well. Definitely the one to beat.

Kauto Star – 9-2 (7-2 lads ) the horse of a generation who having looked finished at Punchestown came back this year to win the betfair chase and king George apparently putting the young pretender in his place.Surely statswise at 12 it is too big an ask for him to reclaim the title he last won in 2009.However if any horse can do so it is this boy and if he won it they would need a new roof at Cheltenham.Head over heart this time though for me.

Grands Crus -– 9-1 (6-1 lads ) Ridiculous price for a novice.The last novice to win this race was Captain Christy I believe.Has taken really well to fences after an excellent season last year hurdling only losing to Big Bucks at home.Lost to Thousand Stars at Auteil when the ground might have been too soft.Surely David Pipe will run him in the RSA so pass for me.

Synchronised – 12-1 gen incl.lads.Admirable horse who won the lexus on what most people thought would be unsuitably quick ground.No doubt he stays well having won the Midlands and Welsh grand nationals in the past.Will not be disgraced but I will give up gambling if he wins this.

Captain Chris  – 20-1 (16-1 lads) 2011 Arkle winner (did me a big favour) who many thought would be better going right handed.Would probably have won the Haldon Gold Cup back in early November but for unseating and would appear to have no chance on his King George run.However I’m a big believer in festival/course form and he has 2 wins & a second from 3 runs here.At only 8 I believe there may be still some improvement in him.

Time For Rupert  – 20-1 gen incl.lads.Went off the 7/4 favourite for the RSA last year but never appeared to be travelling yet finished 5th despite having bled.Had a nice confidence booster prior to Christmas but I would want a bigger price before backing at this stage.

Weird Al  – 20-1 gen incl.lads.Won the Charlie hall at wetherby in November before finishing 3rd to Kauto in the betfair chase when he appeared to stay on well at the end. Genuine enough horse who may just lack the class of a gold cup winner.

Diamond Harry  – 25-1 (20-1 lads) 2010 Hennessy winner who finished fourth in the betfair which was his only race since that win.Pulled up in the 2010 RSA and seems a bit fragile imo so can let him go as well.

The Irish Challenge

Well after the lexus it appears that our stayers are a mediocre bunch at best so what do we actually have :

Quito De La Roque – 33-1 ( 20-1 lads) was being hyped up as our next big hope after wins at Navan,Aintree & Punchestown.This season I don’t delieve he has fulfilled the hype by basically outstaying Sizing Europe before being walloped by Synchronised.For that reason I’m out.

Rubi Light  – 33-1 ( 25-1 lads) a very nice horse indeed but does he truly stay ? never mind being up to true Grade 1 level so another one to ignore.

Joncol  – 50-1 ( 40-1 lads) will be carrying out his other role as a police horse when this race is on.

Jessie’s Dream  – 33-1 ( 20-1 lads)2nd in the RSA last March to Boston’s Angel when he seemed to be worried out of it but has not been sighted since.BA has hardly franked the form subsequently.Would definitely want to see him run before even contemplating parting with any hard earned.

Bostons Angel  – 50-1 ( 33-1 lads) winner of  the RSA last March but has fluffed his copybook since. Definitely not an ante post prospect at present

China Rock  – 66-1 ran well in last year’s race before being pulled up but has not been sighted since.Has anyone any news on this one ?
Quel Esprit - too many ???? at this point in time.


Captain Chris 1 pt e-w @ 16-1.
Taking a chance here as to his stamina but definitely think he is a spring horse with excellent course form.Hobbs said that he missed some work prior to the KG and that he was not 100 %.
Report Colonel Sanders January 2, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
I hope you're right, I took 33/1 NRNB after the King George
Report thefly10 January 5, 2012 12:58 AM GMT
Great thread.

I'd agree about Oscar Whisky for the WH, if there is ever a horse to tackle the great Big Bucks it's him. Connections were keen on the WH last year but i think they made the right decision waiting a year. Does anyone know whats on the agenda for Thousand Stars?

I've just done one bets for Cheltenham.. Arkle - Al Ferof @ 7/1. Sprinter Sacre has a firm hold at the head of the market after romping over Peddlers Cross and deservedly so but I think Al Ferof will outstay SS and the rest of the field. The SN hurdle is an ideal example of how he used his stamina to good use outstaying the Henderson due Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card.

I think Somersby could be an interesting bet in the Ryanair, Henrietta Knight has been leaning towards this race rather than the Gold Cup and finally she has copped on about running him over 2m, in my opinion around 2 and a half would be perfect for him.
Report neill d January 5, 2012 11:01 PM GMT
Henrietta Knight should look at running Somersby in the Irish Hennessey, Mordin put up a good case for it the other week. It would anwser all the imponderables hanging over the horse and they would at least know where they stood, watching the lexus, he doesn't have much to fear as most of our staying chasers couldn't even lay up with the likes of Kauto Star.

what is more, I think the executive at Leopardstown should be getting after the British trainers to enter their horses in these races, I'm sick of seeing the same few showing up every week, this race is more prestigious then an Ascot chase or the Aon (Denman, They should be getting onto King (Medermit), Hobbs (Wishful Thinkin Captain Chris), Henderson (Burton Port), Williams (Diamond Harry) Ferdy Murphy (Kalahari King)

Ascot can get gelding sprinters to fly accross the world for less money for the prestige, Leopardstown should be doing the same, they have the prize money, it doesn't make sense to me. Ted walsh is always going on about such and such prize money being 'for export', is this glib view the reason for the passive approcah of the guys at leopardstown, the Tatts Gold Cup and the irish Champion are going as bad, come on guys, step it up!!
Report Monte Christo January 5, 2012 11:52 PM GMT
Neill some good points there.

I often wondered if the english trainers simply prefer to keep their horses at home in the run up to cheltenham rather than travel over here.Old habits die hard so to speak.

Certainly most of our prestigious staying chases would be easy pickings at the minute.
Report neill d January 6, 2012 12:02 AM GMT
Cheltenham does seem to be King at the expense of the rest of the season alright, they do seem far more amenable to coming over for Punchestown in late April early May
Report thefly10 January 6, 2012 1:20 AM GMT
Interesting comments neill d.

Agree, the Hennessy would be an ideal race for connections to see where they stand with Somersby, but from reading the latest reports on the horse all roads lead to Cheltenham with him.

As said above our staying chasers are well down the pecking order incomparison to the British. Alot of horses that would be hammered out of sight in Grade 1 staying chases in Britain would stand a firm chance in ours eg. Syncronised (Lexus). Awful to see the likes of Syncronised coming over and whipping our best. I'd expect Paul Nicholls to have something to come over in Feb. There's is a pot there for the taking!
Report Monte Christo January 9, 2012 4:08 PM GMT
Champion Hurdle

Have been going through this race over the weekend.

Obviously the key horse here is the current champion Hurricane Fly.

Absolute machine but at this stage he is not my idea of an ante post bet even @ 7/4 NRNB.

The horse that my lucky pin has come down on is Oscars Well. This horse really interests me.Came fourth in the Neptune last season after a bad blunder at the last and despite taking a keen hold early on.

He has been running ok this season despite Jessie's not being in the best of form and i believe this horse will benefit from the fast pace which we always get in the champion hurdle.


Oscars Well 1 point e-w 25-1 NRNB
Report thefly10 January 9, 2012 7:33 PM GMT
Interesting selection MC.
Report Deplasterer January 9, 2012 8:31 PM GMT
Impressed with him yesterday and Meade says he'll go straight to Cheltenham, sorry Norn, 25 Ew at 16's, Monksland and 15 Ew double Monksland and Cue Card for the Arkle. Normally wait till nrnb, but prices are right for Ew at present.
Report itsbeenapleasure January 9, 2012 8:36 PM GMT
have only lucky 15 done so far
dylan ross
cue card
finians rainbow
so far all e/w prices
Report itsbeenapleasure January 9, 2012 8:36 PM GMT
have only lucky 15 done so far
dylan ross
cue card
finians rainbow
so far all e/w prices
Report Monte Christo January 9, 2012 8:40 PM GMT
Good luck with those.

I never do multi's except for the festival when I always wait till day of race tbh.

This year I have started with the championship races as they are NRNB.

As the weeks go on i'll target the supporting races and hopefully have a nice portfolio come Cheltenham.

Well that's the plan anyways.Laugh
Report neill d January 9, 2012 10:16 PM GMT
The place parts of those bets can really add up alright, best of luck with them, might look at doing one myself
Report BJG January 10, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
U beat the price anyway MC b4 Mr pricewise knicked itCool

Waaheb ruled out of the festival today as expected with the betting fwiw
Report Monte Christo January 10, 2012 5:21 PM GMT

So far his ante - post selections have mirrored mine.Maybe he is following this thread Laugh

Bad news about Waaheb but it's that time of year when we all anxiously await the news on our long term fancies for each race with fingers crossed.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 10, 2012 6:04 PM GMT
First one in the bin already Crazy

Waaheb 10/1 - Supreme Nov.
Sprinter Sacre 5/2: Arkle
Hurricane Fly - Champ.H'dl
Quevega 5/4 - Mares H'dl
Boston Bob 16/1 PP - Neptune
Grands Crus 2/1 - RSA
Sizing Europe 5/2 - Q.M.
Captain Chris 10/1 - Ryanair
Big Bucks 4/7 - World H.
Arnaud 33/1 - Triumph
Mount Benbulben 14/1 - Albert B.
Long Run 5/2 - G.C.
Baby Run 5/1 - Foxhunters
Report ChildOfMine2 January 10, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
Taken from yesterday....

Irish have Champion Hurdle wrapped up again

IN the first of four betting previews to the Cheltenham festival's four key championship races, Robert Catterson has a look at this year's Stan James Champion Hurdle on March 13th.

IT wasn't long ago when Irish-trained horses went through a dominant spell in the Stan James Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, winning seven out of nine runnings from 1998-2007, and following Hurricane Fly's awesome victory in the race 12 months ago, there's every chance that we'll double up again in March. The good news for Hurricane Fly fans in recent days was that Willie Mullins' superstar came through a racecourse gallop at Leopardstown with flying colours and from being available at 11/4 on the morning of that pleasing workout last week, the best price on offer about Hurrucane Fly come the end of the day was 9/4. And don't expect that price to last much longer either. It has been a frustrating couple of months for Hurricane Fly fans with the nine-time Grade 1 winner missing intended engagements at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown but Willie Mullins gave his first serious indication that his stable star was close to returning to action with his satisfaction last week and it's all systems go now for the Irish Champion Hurdle on January 29th. Mullins has repeatedly said that he will not run Hurricane Fly until he is 100% happy with the champion hurdler so his comments in recent days suggest that for the first time this season, Hurricane Fly is in the same kind of form which saw him go through last season unbeaten. That would mean that he is highly likely to win his second Irish Champion Hurdle later this month and given that he could be facing some of his closest rivals in the Champion Hurdle betting, I would very much advise snapping up the current 9/4 as soon as possible. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Hurricane Fly is the best hurdler since Istabraq and that makes him one of the best hurdlers of our generation, even though he has only won the one Cheltenham crown so far. But that will change should he get there in two months time and while he may be short at 9/4, I'm pretty confident that he won't be much bigger than even money on March 13th. In fact, even money may be the best price available on the morning of the Champion Hurdle. The opposition to Hurricane Fly is minimal and in looking for any other kind of bet in this year's Champion Hurdle, I'd be nearly tempted to wait until bookmakers start to bet without Hurricane Fly. But as none appear to have a betting without market at present, it's hard to highlight anything else. Spirit Son is apparantly the second coming at Nicky Henderson's yard but we have yet to see him this season and he couldn't win what appeared to be an average Supreme Novices' Hurdle last year. Similar thoughts apply to last year's Triumph Hurdle hero Zarkander, who has all the stats piled against him, and he has the beating of Grandouet and yet all three horses are single figure prices. Binocular's best days are behind him despite what all the reports and rumours may suggest and Rock On Ruby isn't fast enough for 2m and looks better suited by a step up in distance. A case can be made for Unaccompanied after her Christmas victory but surely Thousand Stars would beat her if the race was run again and while Thousand Stars would definately have good each-way claims at 20/1, connections must run him in the World Hurdle given what he showed in the Aintree Hurdle and the French Champion Hurdle last season. That leaves Oscars Well, who showed the first signs of the horse from last season when returning to form in the Istabraq Hurdle and expect more improvement in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Given his preferred better ground at Cheltenham, along with his impressive cruising speed, he's nearly assured of a first three place in the Champion Hurdle and that makes Ladbrokes' 25/1 (non runner-no bet) the only other bet worth considering outside Hurricane Fly.
And by the way, if the betting is anything to go by, we could have the smallest Champion Hurdle field for quite some time. It's been 32 years since there were a single number of runners in the race (nine runners went to post ahead of Sea Pigeon's first Champion Hurdle success in 1980) and I reckon there could be a similar scenario this year.

Recommendations (10pts in total)
8pts win Hurricane Fly @ 9/4 (Paddy Power)
1pt ew Oscars Well @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
Report Distant View January 10, 2012 8:23 PM GMT
I only read Starbets for Kevin Egan and the odd bit of other info. I take a look at Gary every now and then as well.

You seem to be a regular reader COM.

I must have a look at some of the other contributors. Are there any in particular that know their stuff?
Report ChildOfMine2 January 10, 2012 9:49 PM GMT
Gary OB is very good, he seems to have nearly as much effect with the bookies when he tips up one as Pricewise does. The greyhound column is good as well.
Report SHANEBOY_FANTASY_WINS_2011_IRISH_DERBY January 11, 2012 1:36 AM GMT
.....the tips on irish greyhounds on here are better than any paper..i have followed them on the greyhound forum for a while and done really well..they are top class.....

.....monte christo i think pricewise is copying
Report Monte Christo January 16, 2012 3:13 PM GMT
Champion Chase

Looking at the entries for this race it’s interesting to note only 19 entered.

Al Ferof
Big Zeb
Blazing Tempo
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Hold Fast
I'm So Lucky
Kauto Stone
Oiseau De Nuit
Peddlers Cross
Realt Dubh
Sizing Europe
Wishfull Thinking

Of these I still believe Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will run in the Arkle.

Gauvain , Kauto Stone , Realt Dubh & Somersby will probably run in the Ryanair

ISTB , ODN and Dan Breen might go for the grand annual & Nacarat and Ghizao will surely run elsewhere.

Could be the smallest line-up in years due to the superiority of the top two in the market.

Going through the top three in the betting at this stage gives us : 

Sizing Europe  – 9-4 (2-1 lads) the current champion who is going for his third festival victory in succession after winning the arkle in 2010.At his favourite track he will obviously be the one to beat especially after his impressive Tingle creek victory.From an ante-post perspective however I’ll be looking elsewhere. I actually think he might get bigger after Big Zeb beats him in the Tied Cottage lol.

Big Zeb  – 5-1 (7-2 lads ) 2010 champion who found only Sizing Europe too good last year.Lovely horse who has perhaps never got the recognition he truly deserves but 11 now and will surely have it all to do to reverse form with the champ on his favoured track.

Finian’s Rainbow  – 6-1 (5-1 lads ) Smashing horse winner of 5/6 of his chase starts.Second in the 2011 Arkle  but in my opinion is too short a price in comparison to the big two so I am prepared to let him go at this stage

Forpadydeplasterer 1/2 pt e-w @ 50-1 (WH) ( 25-1 lads)

Admittedly he has not registered a win since his 2009 Arkle success but he has been runner up in 8 races and found only Big Zeb too good  in this race in 2010. Taking a chance here but that is reflected in his price.The horse runs better in the spring imo and has great course form.If he gets there in one piece he’ll be capable of filling a place at least.
Report db1974 January 16, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
That could be a very interesting selection Monte Christo

I backed the horse LTO at Leopardstown and he actually ran very well before making a very bad mistake at the last which killed any chance he had.

50/1 is very big actually
Report Monte Christo January 16, 2012 4:46 PM GMT
Cheers db.
Report BJG January 16, 2012 4:58 PM GMT
Was xpectin to see Wishfull Thinkin Devil Pricewise 100% imo

Pady a fair shout at the price imo
Report BJG January 16, 2012 4:58 PM GMT
Was xpectin to see Wishfull Thinkin Devil Pricewise 100% imo

Pady a fair shout at the price
Report Monte Christo January 16, 2012 5:04 PM GMT

Hard to know what way Hobbs is going to go but personally I think WT might yet run in the Ryanair which could turn out to be a cracking race.

Don't think Mr Segal will be copying me on this one somehow.Laugh
Report db1974 January 16, 2012 5:19 PM GMT
If Tom was going to put this up he can't do it now or his secret will be out!
Report Deplasterer January 16, 2012 7:28 PM GMT
Pady due to run the Tingle on Saturday, 50's big if he runs up to scratch there, and should get his ground on Saturday as well, good Ew bet for both races.
Report ChildOfMine2 January 16, 2012 9:33 PM GMT
Pady running in the VC Chase you mean? Thought 50's was massive myself and has the course form. Could run well on Saturday. Surprised Captain Chris isn't going for the CC tho, he'd mop up in my opinion.
Report DECALEC January 17, 2012 3:22 AM GMT
Report Paddy Hair January 17, 2012 4:17 AM GMT
Dec, ante post is 1/4 1st 3 regardless of how many runners turn up on the day.If you backed it now and only 3 turned up on the day your ante post bet will be paid out at 1/4 1st 3.By betting now you are taking the chance that the horse will run, and if a firm is NRNB all the better if you can narrow downthe field to only a few runners turning up like one of the early posters has.
Report Paddy Hair January 17, 2012 4:22 AM GMT
The early poster being Monte Christo, and i am talking about the QM Champion Chase in particular in  which he has said of the 19 entries plenty may run elsewhere. Which does make Pady a great shout at 50's especially if it runs well this weekend and already having Festival form.
Report BJG January 17, 2012 4:12 PM GMT
1/4 1st 3 applies no matter how many go to post Dec

U back a horse e.g Big Zeb ew for the CC now 1/4 1,2,3

Even if only 5 turn up on the day u still have 1/4 1,2,3
Report moneypenny January 17, 2012 4:31 PM GMT
You should check the small print, some bookies have been known to try renege on e/w terms antepost when races cut up
Report BJG January 17, 2012 5:51 PM GMT
Never had that problem myself tbh so shall nt comment
Report Deplasterer January 17, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
Scotsirish 7-2, VC Bet. X Country. Really looks a penalty kick on his running behind Big Zeb at Xmas.
Report DECALEC January 17, 2012 9:14 PM GMT
Report ReimerpYsatnaf January 17, 2012 9:17 PM GMT
The only purpose the X Country race serves in my eyes is that it gives you a nice window of time to go to the toilet or head to the bar and have a beer MischiefGrin

Any odds on if all the jocks go the right course?
Report DECALEC January 17, 2012 9:22 PM GMT
thanks for info A/P TERMS rang a few firms here in the north and they confirmed    REGARDING A/P BETS.  IM AS THICK AS I LOOK ShockedLaugh
Report Deplasterer January 17, 2012 9:47 PM GMT
Lads, Spotthedifference and Bolgers other yoke, always kept the Irish from being annialated on the first day. Always gets slagged off this race, I love it, this fellow will dot up too.
Report the istabraq years January 18, 2012 3:36 PM GMT
Ive been backing 2 or 3 horses in the Championship races since june last year and im very happy with them BUT although i can see why many people arent keen on the XC chase i take the opposite view. Its been a very good race to me over the years and is imo the easiest race to win with very little strength in depth and often pretty poor oppostion.Thres very few real shocks in the race.

When i knew SCOTSIRISH was going down this road i have to say he more or less straight away became my banker of the frestival and i believe him to be on a totally different level to the field this year.After hacking up in Ire on XC debut i had a good bet at 5-2 on himat Chelt in Dec when after going off at 11-8 got taken onto the wrong track. He was about to hack up and although i lost my cash then ,im even more confidant he ll do the business come march if he gets there fit and well - touch wood.Ive taken all the 4-1 when the bookies went up and see him being plunged on.My only real concern was would he stay but 3/4 of this race is run as a hack round. His performance at Aintree last april was classy under a huge weight and his excellent  run behind Big Zeb in Dec is  many, many pounds better then anything else on offer. A solid jumper SCOTSIRISH remains a big price and my banker of the festival by some way...good luck all.
Report Monte Christo January 18, 2012 4:08 PM GMT
Since it's introduction to the festival in 2005 the XC race has certainly been one of the strongest trends races.

It's a race I enjoy watching myself though I appreciate it's not everyone's cup of tea.

As regards Scotsirish what price do you think he'll be on the day ?
Report BJG January 18, 2012 4:13 PM GMT
Personally would nt be surprised to see him sub 2/1
Report Monte Christo January 18, 2012 4:24 PM GMT
Fair point BJG.

Suppose a lot depends on how the favs fare in the previous four races.

If they win then people will steam into him for sure.

Certainly not my type of price to be honest.
Report the istabraq years January 18, 2012 4:49 PM GMT
As youve said its hard to call but wouldnt surprise me to be 6-4 / 11-8. As i say i find it hard to see any real dangers.
Report kavvie January 18, 2012 8:51 PM GMT
any one w.a.r yet on it?
Report BJG January 18, 2012 9:03 PM GMT
Nope - only on the 4 championship races
Report kavvie January 18, 2012 9:11 PM GMT
if you got 7/2  war it would be an all in job..
Report Deplasterer January 18, 2012 9:22 PM GMT
VC, get 25 free bet, anyone without an account already. Prob one and only bet I will have with them as I hear there as bad as they come, still give dues, they're the only high st bookie I can see quoting the X Country.
Report kavvie January 18, 2012 10:03 PM GMT
lots are quoting it...7/2 general but no one gong nrnb
Report thefly10 January 18, 2012 11:16 PM GMT
'The only purpose the X Country race serves in my eyes is that it gives you a nice window of time to go to the toilet or head to the bar and have a beer'


I certainly wouldnt be backing Paddy Mullins. I'll go back to the well and for an interest back A New Story. The ole boy always runs a cracker in this race.

Keep the analysis coming Monte Christo. Enjoy reading them.
Report moneypenny January 19, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
Surely you need to see the weights for the XC before you can decide anything is a good thing
Report kavvie January 19, 2012 3:28 PM GMT
Report Monte Christo January 19, 2012 3:34 PM GMT
The fly - glad to see someone enjoys them.Laugh

As regards the handicaps i love trying to solve them and have generally had good success down the years.

Agree with mp & kavvie though that there's no point even looking till the weights come out.

I think end of Feb is when they come out but I stand to be corrected.
Report kavvie January 19, 2012 3:39 PM GMT
as regards the handicaps its intresting that in  h cap chases 9 yr olds have a very good record.specially ones that have ran less than 12 chases.
Report Deplasterer January 19, 2012 3:42 PM GMT
Weight doesnt stop the good uns in this, old Spot the difference used to hmp 12 7 around and thrash the be jeesus out ot the plodders.
Report Monte Christo January 19, 2012 3:50 PM GMT
Weight doesnt stop the good uns in this, old Spot the difference used to hmp 12 7 around and thrash the be jeesus out ot the plodders


He only carried 11-12 though in this race back in 2005 when winning.

As did Garde Champetre in 2009.
Report Deplasterer January 19, 2012 4:53 PM GMT
They def carried big weights in November/December races, but I cant be arsed to check back.
Report Monte Christo January 19, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
No problem deplasterer.
Report Deplasterer January 19, 2012 7:20 PM GMT
Nice write ups of the champ races Monte BTW, not long now.Excited
Report moneypenny January 19, 2012 7:51 PM GMT
2005    Spot Thedifference    12    11-12    Mr J. T. McNamara    Enda Bolger
2006    Native Jack    12    10-08    Davy Russell    Philip Rothwell
2007    Heads Onthe Ground    10    10-02    Miss Nina Carberry    Enda Bolger
2008    Garde Champetre    9    10-13    Miss Nina Carberry    Enda Bolger
2009    Garde Champetre    10    11-12    Miss Nina Carberry    Enda Bolger
2010    A New Story    12    09-07    Adrian Heskin    Michael Hourigan
2011    Sizing Australia    9    10-09    Andrew Lynch    Henry De Bromhead
Report moneypenny January 19, 2012 7:59 PM GMT
Only two top weights out of 7 have won this race. The rest all carried less than 11 stone.

The race in November is not a handicap and no horse has ever carried more than 11-12 on the track
Report ChildOfMine2 January 24, 2012 11:27 PM GMT
Interesting thoughts here....
Report ChildOfMine2 January 24, 2012 11:27 PM GMT
Interesting thoughts here....
Report cluain meala January 30, 2012 11:54 AM GMT
Some interesting thoughts above. I'm sure this thread will get busier in the coming weeks.

From talking to two lads whose opinion I'd listen to, I've had a few bob on Final Approach at an average of 403 for the Champion Hurdle.

I've also been chipping away at Oscar Whiskey in the same race, average so far being 41. Only realistic challenger to Hurricane Fly I feel and was happy to note that from "definitely" going for the World Hurdle he's now rated only "60-40" by the owner to run in that.

Had a few quid on Empire Levant at 42 and 40 for the County Hurdle after his second to last run, which I was hugely impressed with. He may not have beaten much, admittedly. I'm torn now as to whether I want him to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (which I've also backed him for) or for Mr Nicholls to mind his handicap mark.
Report Monte Christo January 30, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
Hi cluain Meala

Some nice prices there good luck with the first and third as I obviously want OW to go the world hurdle route.Laugh

As for the four championship races mixed fortunes so far

Oscars Well i believe will run a big race in the CH but realistically we are looking at what's filling the minor places.

Ireland will surely have the winner of the QM and hopefully Pady can come home in a place.

I really think Oscar Whisky can put it up to Big Bucks and am really looking forward to it.

As for Captain Chris I doubt he will run in the Gold Cup now so.
Report neill d January 30, 2012 1:50 PM GMT
Anyone else sorely tempted by the 7/1 best price Boston Bob for the Neptune, the Hobbs yoke will probably go for the 3 miler and this fella looks the classic Mullins Neptune hoss, don't think Willie likes the 3 miler. Some of my fav racing days have involved Mullins 2m5f Chelts novice hurdle winners, I've a 50 coiled here, surely he won't go for the plodders raceLaugh

Thoughts lads?
Report Monte Christo January 30, 2012 2:01 PM GMT
Racing Post Arkle

A rundown of the contenders in betting order :

Sprinter Sacre  – 5-2 third in the supreme novices last year when he might have been outstayed on the run in.Since going over fences he has been very impressive thrashing Peddlers Cross by 24 lengths at Kempton over Christmas.He has certainly been a lot of people’s idea of the banker.The last short priced winner of this race was Azertyuiop back in 2003 and he was’nt a bad horse.Will be taking on Cue Card at Newbury in a fortnight which will tell us much more.Definitely the one to beat at this stage but not my type of price ante post.

Peddlers Cross  – 5-1 Gutsy horse who ran up a series of wins over timber before going down by 1 1/4lengths to the Fly in last year’s Champion before bombing out at Aintree.Recorded two victories over fences before being well beaten at Kempton by Sprinter Sacre.The noises coming from the McCain yard are that the horse might even go straight to the festival.He has excellent course form and will surely be a major threat on the day and looks an each way certainty.

Al Ferof – 6-1 Winner of the Supreme last year when he seemed to outstay his rivals.Won his first two races over fences before trying his elders in the VC Chase.To my eyes the horse did not jump well enough to win an arkle in what was hardly a searing pace either.In the arkle I feel he will be staying on well enough perhaps nicking a place at the end.Might need further than this.

Cue Card – 10-1 Mightily impressive winner of the 2010 bumper who then finished fourth in last years Supreme.Since going over fences he has looked far from comfortable even unseating on his 2nd start. Will definitely not get away with those types of mistakes in the frantic pace of an arkle.

Menorah  – 16-1 2010 Supreme Novices winner but this proved the height of his success over timber.He unseated on his first start over fences before recording what seemed like back to back confidence boosters.Fell again at Doncaster at the weekend and Hobbs has said he’ll jump better at a faster pace.However I’ll not be paying to find that out.

The Irish Challenge

Of the total 27 entered we have 10 with a quick summary as follows :

Bagber – 66-1 unlikely to run in this race but if he did it would surely be to give his owners a day out.

Baily Green  – 100-1 another one who must be very unlikely to turn up.

Blackstairmountain  – 20-1 very disappointing run today and has hardly set the world alight on his two previous course visits.Would surely be lacking the class to win an arkle.

Bog Warrior  – 20-1 He looked a really smart chaser in the making after two victories at Navan ( where he beat Flemenstar ) and Fairyhouse.However he fell at Leopardstown over Christmas and I would like to see him run in the Moriarty before parting with any hard earned yet. Might go for the Jewson instead and surely questions as to him getting his ground at the festival.

Shot From The Hip – 25-1 Think he is another one that might go down the Jewson route.

Sir Deschamps – 33-1 Love this horse and he won the martin pipe at last years festival when he came home very strongly.Will surely run elsewhere and will be a major player in whatever race he runs in.

Call The Police  – 40-1 again not sure if he would actually run here.

Foildubh  – 66-1 as above

Lucky William  – 66-1 as above

Nearest The Pin– 66-1 as above



At this stage it is very difficult to look beyond the top three in the betting and I think this race could fall apart.

Peddlers Cross 1 pt e-w @ 5-1. I honestly think the horse will be better suited at Cheltenham and that he can reign in Sprinter Sacre here in what promises to be a cracking race.

Be interested to hear what people's thoughts are on this race.
Report BJG January 30, 2012 4:01 PM GMT
Id have to agree - impossibe to look past the top 3 in the betting

I just have a nagging doubt about SS gettin up the Hill so preference for me would also be for PC ew
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl January 30, 2012 7:59 PM GMT
If I was to go for one outside of the Gold cup/Champion Hurdle races I think it just has to be Sprinter Sacre, Noel Meade said recently on the Post that he's the best for some time....Sprinter Sacre nap at this early stage........
Report cluain meala January 30, 2012 8:20 PM GMT
Good man Monte Christo, a nice write up there.
I reckon you'll get your wish regarding Oscar Whisky as he's now 60 for the Champion Hurdle. I can't resist so I'll have another few quid at that price.

As a matter of interest, does anyone know when entries are out for a race ye were discussing above - the Cross Country Chase?
Report Monte Christo January 30, 2012 8:29 PM GMT
Thanks cluain meala.

As regards Oscar Whisky what a dilemma. Take on the Fly or Big Bucks ? I would love to be in that owner's position.

As regards the cross country i thought i read somewhere that it was Feb 26 but i stand to be corrected and wil double check now.
Report hammy January 31, 2012 11:44 AM GMT
Donn McCleans article about Cheltenham in the Post today should warn anyone about the perils of ante post punting at Cheltenham with all the extra races.You have to wait for non runner no bet.A friend of mine had a horse which could have ran in 7 races a week before Cheltenham.Please wait for NRNB,you are a mug if you dont.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf January 31, 2012 11:52 AM GMT
totally disagree with that ^^
Report hammy January 31, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
We dont even know what the ground is yet.
Report DECALEC January 31, 2012 4:23 PM GMT
Think its grass although some call it Turf dont know why we feckin burn the stuffLaugh
Report ChildOfMine2 February 1, 2012 11:25 AM GMT
I agree with you PF, you wait for NRNB and you get half the price. Nothing beats trying to figure out which horses run in what races and taking the big prices Happy
Report ChildOfMine2 February 1, 2012 12:12 PM GMT
Betting preview to National Hunt's blue riband....
Report Patsy Indy Cline February 1, 2012 5:28 PM GMT
If Wille Mullins brings Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham, it's surely at the World Hurdle rather than the Champion. He has entries in both.,
They have been trying for a year to make a chaser out of him and it hasn't worked, That's hardly a negative. It would be different if he was a year out with injury.
On his best form he is head and shoulders above all bar Big Bucks, who would be in a different race himself if he could jump a fence.
He has Grade 1 form over course and a furlong shy of distance and is the only horse who might have the class to give Big Bucks a race.
In my opinion, if he runs, the 20.0 available here is big and the 4.0 to be placed is enormous.
I'm on.
Report DECALEC February 1, 2012 6:15 PM GMT
good for you think this has no chance
Report hammy February 1, 2012 7:42 PM GMT
Might run in the Coral cup either,so that makes it 3 races which it MAY run in,not including not going at all.Taking the guessing out of it,and wait for NRNB.
Report hammy March 3, 2012 4:21 PM GMT
2 jollys not running,Fingal Bay and Minsk,Peddlers might go for the Jewson,Kauto stiff..........Any one for Ante Post ?????
Report Monte Christo March 4, 2012 11:26 AM GMT

That's the joys of ante-post betting for sure.

Most of the books are now NRNB so gonna preview a lot of the races this week and try and get a bit of value before next week's purge.
Report cluain meala March 5, 2012 5:28 PM GMT

Should have given Donn McClean €500 and he would have advised me properly.
Report BJG March 5, 2012 7:57 PM GMT
Peddlars Cross out of the Arkle - runs in d Jewson
Report Monte Christo March 5, 2012 11:07 PM GMT
Was really looking forward to the Arkle,I thought it would be one of the races of the festival.

Looks like we'll have to just pick the f/c now.
Report hammy March 6, 2012 5:37 PM GMT
It certainly makes Paddy P offer very juicy now,forget about the f/c,charge to paddys!
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