Dundalk Friday

knockgraffon lad was tanking at todays trip last week , surely must have a big chance if travelling as well as last week

I never back horses from that yard, however with the jockey's claim, he is on a mark 12 pounds better than the last time he won. He must have a serious chance and 8/1 is value.

One I will be backing E/W is PENCIL HILL in the first. Last time out, for a handicapper, he ran respectably in a listed race. In his previous two races he got a terrible rides. The handicapper has dropped him 10 pounds for those last three runs and he now runs off a mark of 73 in a 55-75 handicap. With a decent ride he is the value of the race at 12/1.

BJG I tipped him up here a few years ago when he did win and have watched him since.
I was on at 10/1 the night he was gambled and went off 11/4 and he was beat fair and square and fair :-(
Next time I backed him I was actually at Dundalk (11/11) and it was over 12f which best suits him. I can find no explanation whatsoever for the ride Gary Carroll gave him..he's not see the stars so how he thought he would quicken up in 100 yards and recover 4/5 lengths I've no idea..turnin in he looked like he was going to hack up (later I was told he was well layed on betfair.
Last week he was schooled in public imo
Only explanation is that he is very fragile (has broken down on the course on the straight..) and is difficult to win with.

Tonight he is well hdped and at his optimum trip.. at best I would back him to lay him (if theres a gamble) or when he is travelling well or as a saver if you back something else which I'd recomend

18:00 I like Sweet Rhythm dispite the poor draw. She's an impriving 3 yr old that goes well on the track and show good speed over 6f in her maiden winning well. 6/1 looks value

18:30 Tarsille looks a lay at the current price and if they get silly and he goes 6/4ish he'll be a big lay for me. 0/14 over 7/f, 2 1/2 yrs since last win, gone up another 2 lbs..
Devonelli looks ew value

19:30 9/2 looks a fair price for a horse (liberty to rock)whos 3/4 over CD and only up 3lbs. However I'll be taking a chance on Hopes and Dreams from a small yard yet to have a winner on the flat if I'm not mistaken..if theres a price about him on here

20:30 Master Melody showed good form running Elizabeth Coffee to 1/2 l when stepped up in trip. that form couldn't have worked out better with Eliz winning off a 7lb higher mark and Maggie Neary winning twice since. Flavia Tatiana should be thereabouts again but looks in the grip of the handicapper as they say.

21:00 Alubari (nap) looks the one to be on here. Surely needed the run lto and proven on aw. Seems fancied as well which is no harm.

Mountain Coral e/w in the first if he's anyway in tune.

Gone from 14 to 7.6 on here in last 5 mins.

wd Vubiant - waitin on AA for a nice double with him posted on main forum

Wish I could have posted sooner on both forums -wife chose a bad time to put up the Xmas decorations and it was either help out or spend the w/end in the doghouse...in fact I nearly forgot about it altogether .

some great info here lads, hope u get ur winner in the next chaps!

wd tom and toby

Hopefully tonight will be the night that Avanti Albert comes under strong pressure and people can forget about him. He bursts blood vessels, he has serious a wind problem, he doesn't find much off the bridle. Carroll has done his best to hold him together in his last two starts, it hasn't looked good, but he was finishing as close as he could given the horse that is under him. Please, don't waste money backing this horse.

Would agree with everything the last poster said, AA is an absolute ****.