Irish Sports
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15 Nov 11
14:49
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07 Jun 11
Anybody else think he is too big for the big race this weekend? He is now 11 and regressing but to what extent?
Last season obviously didn't go to plan, he was disappointing in the King George when 3rd to Long Run and Riverside Theatre but may have still finished 2nd but for a shocking error 2 out when AP did well to stay on. He then ran an absolute blinder in the Gold Cup again finsihing 3rd to Long Run and Denman, this time though he travelled much better and looked like he may have won at one stage before staying on one paced. I have no idea why Nicholls sent him to Punchestown after that (or why he went to Aintree with Denman) as in other seasons it has shown that the Gold Cup takes an awful lot out of a horse and many run below form at Aintree or Punchestown. He ran an absolute shocker at Punchestown but i can't believe he ran that bad as he has regressed that much, i feel it was down to a really tough race at Cheltenham.
Obviously we don't know how good he still is but has he regressed that much since his Gold Cup run at Cheltenham in March. Nicholls has said he is the fittest he has ever had him at this stage of the season, we all know he goes well fresh and he has won the race 3 times.
As for the opposition, Long Run will take some stopping if in the form he showed in the King George and Gold Cup but he got beaten in the Paddy Power last year off 158 on his seasonal debut and this is surely the time to be taking him on. Diamond Harry has a great record fresh but he has had problems and i wonder how he will run returning from a ligament problem. Weird Al was very impressive in the Charlie Hall and may have improved for moving to the McCain stable but on last years form he has no chance against Long Run, Kauto Star or Diamond Harry and there seems no obvious reason why Time For Rupert or Nacaret should reverse Charlie Hall form with him.
Maybe i'm being a sentimantal fool but i think at the price i think he is worth betting E/W.
Last season obviously didn't go to plan, he was disappointing in the King George when 3rd to Long Run and Riverside Theatre but may have still finished 2nd but for a shocking error 2 out when AP did well to stay on. He then ran an absolute blinder in the Gold Cup again finsihing 3rd to Long Run and Denman, this time though he travelled much better and looked like he may have won at one stage before staying on one paced. I have no idea why Nicholls sent him to Punchestown after that (or why he went to Aintree with Denman) as in other seasons it has shown that the Gold Cup takes an awful lot out of a horse and many run below form at Aintree or Punchestown. He ran an absolute shocker at Punchestown but i can't believe he ran that bad as he has regressed that much, i feel it was down to a really tough race at Cheltenham.
Obviously we don't know how good he still is but has he regressed that much since his Gold Cup run at Cheltenham in March. Nicholls has said he is the fittest he has ever had him at this stage of the season, we all know he goes well fresh and he has won the race 3 times.
As for the opposition, Long Run will take some stopping if in the form he showed in the King George and Gold Cup but he got beaten in the Paddy Power last year off 158 on his seasonal debut and this is surely the time to be taking him on. Diamond Harry has a great record fresh but he has had problems and i wonder how he will run returning from a ligament problem. Weird Al was very impressive in the Charlie Hall and may have improved for moving to the McCain stable but on last years form he has no chance against Long Run, Kauto Star or Diamond Harry and there seems no obvious reason why Time For Rupert or Nacaret should reverse Charlie Hall form with him.
Maybe i'm being a sentimantal fool but i think at the price i think he is worth betting E/W.
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I'm think along the same lines..........maybe we are just sentimental.
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I will back him on sentiment, but I actually think he can place, he is usually such a consistent horse.
Long Run was found to be lame after the Paddy Power |
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Take out Long Run and a performance in the 160's could win this, we'd need LR to underperform as ye say lads, but it is feasable and twud bring the house down.
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Are you sure he was lame after the pp neill? I dont remember hearing that at all.
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Certain, it only came out much later after the King George.
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He was gambled in the KG as well, these French breds are normally easy enough to get straight I've heard.
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I was inclined to take on LR Saturday too, unlikely to be feverpitch, just might be a chance to chin him
You'd have to say Kauto would be a dodgy investment, my gut just tells me this is a season too far with him |
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Personally i think if Kauto Star had not run at Punchestown he would not be this big, i'm inclined to ignore the Punchestown run as he has ran way below form before after running again in the season after running in the Gold Cup. I am willing to lose my money on Saturday finding out if he is totally finished.
Bar Long Run i can't see why any of the others should finish in front of him. Diamond Harry even ignoring the fact he is coming back from an injury, what form does he really have to be ahead of Kauto Star with some of the bookmakers? Winning the Hennessy off 10-0? Beating Bensalem 2L giving him 3lbs? Beating Knockara Beau receiving 7lbs? Added to that those wins have come with soft in the description and unless the rain comes it will be good ground which the only time he encountered it he ran a shocker in the RSA Chase. Weird Al as i said was massivley impressive in the Charlie Hall and there is no obvious reason why those who finsihed behind (Time For Rupert + Nacarat) should reverse form. He may have improved leaps and bounds for the change in stable but last year he was beaten out of sight in the Hennessy off 10-0 by Diamond Harry and in the Gold Cup he was pulled up. Can he have improved that much since then or Kauto Star regressed that much that he should finish ahead of him? |
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horse is practically 12. 14 as he is french bred. should retire now.
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3/1 without the fav
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Long Run 1
Diamond Harry 11/2 Kauto Star 7 Weird Al 7 Time For Rupert 9 |
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GET THE FACK IN!!!
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slickster
16 Nov 11 00:37 Joined: 29 May 02 | Topic/replies: 2,136 | Blogger: slickster's blog horse is practically 12. 14 as he is french bred. should retire now.  |
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Well done PF.
Couldn't have him myself, but couldn't back him against him either.. What a fantastic hoss he is.. |
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GREAT CALL M8 HOPE YU WON LOADS
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..fantastic tip..i will look out for you in future..different gear to most mugs..
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Well done OP,I just watched it as I didn't fancy K S today.
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great call reimerp, sadly I was on the second fella. Looked near his best tbf, and Ruby knew it(judging on his smile before the race)
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great call reimerp, sadly I was on the second fella. Looked near his best tbf, and Ruby knew it(judging on his smile before the race)
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Well done Premier
What a result. A fifth King George here we come...... As for Slickster's comment the only retiree mate should be you from this forum |
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A brilliant horse and a great training performance by PF Nicholls, now hopefully Denman can win the Lexus too
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Well done OP
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I honestly thought the old warrior was "gone" at the end of last season so congrats to connections.
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Great day, probably my favourite one following racing, that was very special. It also serves to underline the void he will leave when he eventually exits stage left. They way he stood off at some of those fences, it is that mixture of supreme athleticism and vunerability that makes him so appealling.
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appealing*
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