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neill d
24 Sep 11 01:45
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Date Joined: 19 Aug 09
| Topic/replies: 10,002 | Blogger: neill d's blog
Absolutely fantastic card at Newmarket tomorrow, I'm going to have a little go in the first 4 races, maybe a lucky 15 as I'm following Pricewise these days, but hopefully a few stray bets won't kill Tom's profits

In the Royal Lodge, I've a feeling Daddy Long Legs is going to run a really big race, that Duggan Chap highlighted what a real long striding type he is in his in his maiden win at gowran and I feel this is just the type of horse that thrives at Newmarket. Doncaster is for me quite a funny track since it has been redeveloped and quite a few horses don't seem to act there I have noticed, he looked very exciting on debut and while his form so far doesn't amount to much, I feel he is worth chancing. The Hamdan horse only scraped home last time out in a novice stakes so I'd hope he could potentially surpass that level of form, he also looks the probable stable number one on jockey bookings with COD up and Spencer on Wrote who I overlook on the basis that Listowel nursery winners can't keep winning group races.Laugh Best Price 4/1 with Stan James

In the Chevely Park, I reckon Lightning Pearl is going to take the spoils. Lyons has sounded very bullish in recent interviews, possibly with a mind to a future sale, but i'll park my cynicism and say that this is probably the best horse that he has had so far and that she just ran into a machine in Maybe. She seems to have a very potent turn of foot and the race looks between her and the Hannon horse with shumoos looking a little exposed now and Hill's Angels will Fall looking more of a 5 furlong early season type to me, despite her effectiveness at 6, I'd think she lacks scope (W Carson said she was very small on BBC), I'd be very dissapointed if lightning Pearl doesn't finish in front of her. The hannon horse is similar in many ways for my money, she was early enough to win a Queen Mary, and while she has gone on from it to be fair, i'd just doubt whether she will have continued her upward curve enough to win a race of this nature, Hughes has never gotten a great feel of her terms of scope and power behind the saddle and I'd say she's about to be found out here. Best Price 7/2 Ladbrokes

In the Sun Chariot, I think Alanza is going to reward the steady approach her trainer has adopted with victory over solid if unspectacular Group 1 rivals. We all know how selective Oxx is with his Group raids to britain and she simply wouldn't be here if he didn't think she could win or go close. Saphresa is plainly a very good horse, but multiple Group 1 winner and all though she is, I always feel she is vunerable to real top rank rivals and Alanza could well be just that. She looked top class in her latest start in a Group 3 at Doncaster, she simply couldn't have gone through the race any easier. Murtagh seemed to exude confidence on her and I think she is about to show that she has a change of pace that we can trust with cold hard cash at Group 1 level. As an Aga Khan horse, she should be improving with time and will get the mile standing on her head. I don't think Timepiece is a true Group 1 horse despite having won one and I think she just further undermines the case of Saphresa more than anything. I think there might be just the touch of the 'short runner' about Together and having being beaten early season by horses who aren't true milers, I don't think she will beat what might be the real article here. Best Price 10/3 Paddy Power

In the Cavalry Charge that is the Cambridgeshire, I really like the chances of Cry Fury, as an aside, doesn't Prince Khalid name his horses beautifully. I think Roger Charlton has struggled to find the right trip for this horse thus far and the 1m1f tomorrow is going to be right up his street it seems to me. He stayed on well over an inadequete 7 furlongs at Doncaster last time out to be beaten 3 lengths never nearer, the race was run at a slow pace and the trainer seems to reckon that he didn't have an overly hard time of things. The fact he got so close in such a race tells me that he will have the requisite tactical speed to be tractable in terms of positioning and thrive in a race such as this He is at the right end of the handicap and it is almost certain that we haven't seen the best of him yet which potentially puts him ahead of his mark. He also seems preety strong in the market which is a good sign in these affairs and he looks just the type to go close in a race like this. Looking through his form, it doesn't have the solidity of some others, but we are backing potential here, he'll improve for the trip and as mentioned, the best is yet to come.

Best Price 11/1 Bet Fred

Good Luck in all your endeavours over the weekend gentlemen. I'll be having a lucky 15 on these 4.

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Replies: 46
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 01:50
few typos and the usual struggle to find the Caps lock button but heyLaugh
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 24 Sep 11 01:56
Your ok Neill will probably watch some of it tomorrow myself.
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 02:21
glad to see we've buried the hatchet then, good luck
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 02:22
I should put a disclaimer up now actually- follow at your own perilLaugh
By:
itsbeenapleasure
When: 24 Sep 11 06:46
I think the royal lodge is a very weak Group 2, Don't see what farhaan has achieved to be favourite. Agree DLL has improvement in him, hard to know what to make of tenth star after last race, and wrote is following the path of treasure beach last year so wouldn't discount the Galway nursery. so I'll take a chance on Rocinate at 6's, form is possibly higher than the rest, just a worry that he mightn't want it as quick the way he has been campaigned

Think lightning pearl has good chance for the reasons you outlined, I'll take a chance with hello Glory at 14/1 who didn't get the race run to suit last time, hopefully with improvement to come.

Pendragon for me at 33/1 in the big one, ran a good race in it last year when up with the pace, hopefully the better ground this year will suit him better GL
By:
workrider
When: 24 Sep 11 09:21
a very good write up neill....top class stuff , i wish you well with those ....did you by any chance get a chance to look at zip tops run at newmarket on thurs ..i popped into a pub in salou and low and behold they had ruk and atr on ...wife not best pleased ....Laugh....i thought it was all at sea and never really raced properly till the last furlong ..not suited to newmarket but one to watch if sent out before the seasons end....
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 09:21
Sorry Galway rather than Listowl nursery, good original selections there IBP
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 09:24
No didn't and don't have the RUK unfortunately, but I'll see if I can have a look, that's a good point about Newmarket, and the dip is there as well. It's a big vast expanse as well and some horses might find it hard to concentrate there.
By:
workrider
When: 24 Sep 11 09:31
if bolger decides to send her out gain this season take the hint ...
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 09:34
Will do defoCool
By:
workrider
When: 24 Sep 11 09:44
i backed cry fury at goodwood and was most impressed..i friend who's opinion i respect said he fancied it for the cambridge when it was a far bigger price ....i never took a price myself .....
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 10:58
Good to hear, I wouldn't read too much into the loss last time out myself.
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 24 Sep 11 11:35
Backed Alanza in the Sun Chariot, think she only just does enough and the step back up to 1m is a positive, Saphrese be tough to beat but Oxx doesn't overfaze his horses so she must have a chance.

In Navan just doubles Frawley @ 2/1 and Loosen My Load @ 4/5

Off out golfing, lovely day best make the most of it, gl enjoy d racing Grin
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:07
GTFI Beer money covered anyway
By:
dinglemick
When: 24 Sep 11 14:23
well done neil ... one up three to go .... excellent write up regardless of outcomes ......i ll be rooting you on for the rest of the afternoon Laugh.......except for the sun chariot going against u  ..... proven group 1 form sways me to saphrese ... good luck with the rest of them
By:
thefly10
When: 24 Sep 11 14:27
In the Royal Lodge, I've a feeling Daddy Long Legs is going to..... Fair play Neill d. You got that prediction spot on.
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:28
yep early days, but I'll get most of the cash back from the lucky 15 now anywayLaugh, if it was my last tenner, I'd be with Saphresa too fwiw, but I think it's a bit of a two horse race so i'm just chancing the other.
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:31
AOB is half using races to bring them on these days, they must be doing very little at home, they really don't seem to mind getting them beaten any more. It was something I started to notice around 09' with the likes of rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman, but it seems to be par for the course now, really really sympathetic.
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:31
isn't half*
By:
itsbeenapleasure
When: 24 Sep 11 14:37
wd neil 2/2.... crazy price the fav in the first
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:37
come on Johnny my boyLaugh
By:
dinglemick
When: 24 Sep 11 14:38
get in there neil d LaughLaughLaugh
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:39
I don't think hughes ever really believed in that horse lads
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:43
Lyons coming accross really well here imo
By:
workrider
When: 24 Sep 11 14:45
w/d neill ...i think the beer's on you tonight....
By:
The Icchantika
When: 24 Sep 11 14:46
Congrats to Ger Lyons... a truly outstanding exponent of the art of training racehorses and one of the nicest people to ever walk the face of the earth to boot.
By:
thefly10
When: 24 Sep 11 14:48
Well done again neill d and big congrats to Ger Lyons. First of many group 1's no doubt!!
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 14:51
Cheers lads, just thought he did a nice job reminding the fellows over the water wher the best horses and the most competitive racing is.
By:
GANT007
When: 24 Sep 11 14:55
No bother to Ger to fly the flag.......Neilld......well done and stay ahead.
By:
GANT007
When: 24 Sep 11 15:00
The french filly is the one to beat in the next.........I fancy her to win easy.......Johnny needs to produce his filly on the line and the french filly will be gone for all money.
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 15:05
^^^ you're probably right I'd say,hopefully she'll get a very FrenchLaugh, but I think it's a match
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 15:05
french type of ride*
By:
thefly10
When: 24 Sep 11 15:06
The french filly does look the one to beat..she has her name on this, going for a hatrick. I've did herself and Together in a straight forecast. Together loves coming second!!Laugh
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 15:13
ye called it lads, totally outclassed em, how on earth did they get her beat in the Falmouth
By:
thefly10
When: 24 Sep 11 15:17
I thought Lemaire gave her too much to do in the Falmouth.
By:
GANT007
When: 24 Sep 11 15:20
Right lads......Lets keep the roll going.
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 15:26
He did indeed ya, jesus the mother and father of all balls ups really as I'd say you could have done anything with her today and she would have won against that lot. Timepiece is one lucky Group 1 winner. The winner would be interesting in the BC Mile imo
By:
neill d
When: 24 Sep 11 15:27
Alanza will probably be better next year and maybe with a more even pace being an Aga horse, despite the trips she has been campaigned at this year, but no real excuse, close enough if good enough.
By:
thefly10
When: 24 Sep 11 15:30
we'll be doing well to pick the winner of the next!Laugh I like neill d's choice Cry Fury does look if he will will improve for the extra few furlongs. Backed Sagramor at Goodwood after he won the britannia at Ascot, Nicky Mackay said his race was out the window before the off, kicking up at the stalls. I'll go for Sagramor ew.
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