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18 May 11
14:40
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Date Joined:
05 Jun 08
Hopefully this might stimulate a discussion:
Time restraints have kept me away from punting recently but I have researched many different angles on flat racing over the years and my best source of winners remains a combination of race-watching, pedigree analysis, betting ring activity and other occasional factors such as media comment. This combo will usually give me a list of horses to follow that must be supported in a methodical manner if you have faith in your own selection process.
Following a list of horses usually means you have to establish your betting bank, calculate percentage of stake, decide on each-way betting or not, nominate how many runs you will follow and (I think this is most critical) decide that once you have identified (and profitted) from a winner that you must follow for the season.
It has been successful for me over the years (occasionally quite spectacularly) and yet you find yourself breaking your own rules time and again and not capitalising on the success. I think it has a lot to do with strategy whereby once you impose a set of rules your betting becomes more of an investment process rather than the usual thrill of the gambling "fix" and all that that entails.
Research that never seemed to work for me were:
*following selected trainers
*selecting yearlings on the basis of top-ten/twenty listings at major sales
*following money on the day
*identifying stallions of note (as they can produce excellent winners/runners stats)
One system that seems to work on a very regular basis for both flat and national hunt is following a jockey or trainer in form altho' the latter can be hit-or-miss. Check out any journeyman/conditional/apprentice jockey riding a big winner at a major meeting and the number of times they score on subsequent near-term mounts is eye-catching.
Two spectacular examples that come to mind randomly: Declan McDonagh following a Royal Ascot winner and Andrew Lynch follwing a Cheltenham Festival winner.
Any thoughts?
Time restraints have kept me away from punting recently but I have researched many different angles on flat racing over the years and my best source of winners remains a combination of race-watching, pedigree analysis, betting ring activity and other occasional factors such as media comment. This combo will usually give me a list of horses to follow that must be supported in a methodical manner if you have faith in your own selection process.
Following a list of horses usually means you have to establish your betting bank, calculate percentage of stake, decide on each-way betting or not, nominate how many runs you will follow and (I think this is most critical) decide that once you have identified (and profitted) from a winner that you must follow for the season.
It has been successful for me over the years (occasionally quite spectacularly) and yet you find yourself breaking your own rules time and again and not capitalising on the success. I think it has a lot to do with strategy whereby once you impose a set of rules your betting becomes more of an investment process rather than the usual thrill of the gambling "fix" and all that that entails.
Research that never seemed to work for me were:
*following selected trainers
*selecting yearlings on the basis of top-ten/twenty listings at major sales
*following money on the day
*identifying stallions of note (as they can produce excellent winners/runners stats)
One system that seems to work on a very regular basis for both flat and national hunt is following a jockey or trainer in form altho' the latter can be hit-or-miss. Check out any journeyman/conditional/apprentice jockey riding a big winner at a major meeting and the number of times they score on subsequent near-term mounts is eye-catching.
Two spectacular examples that come to mind randomly: Declan McDonagh following a Royal Ascot winner and Andrew Lynch follwing a Cheltenham Festival winner.
Any thoughts?
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Interesting stuff
What's the difference between "betting ring activity" and "following money on the day", one of which is successful for you and one which is not
Does the latter refer to price movements during the day as opposed to on-course?
What's the difference between "betting ring activity" and "following money on the day", one of which is successful for you and one which is not
Does the latter refer to price movements during the day as opposed to on-course?
My preference is for horses that "can" win races into the future. So I'm not interested in following money on the day unless it coincides with one of my selections and, invariably, you will generally anticipate some level of support if your paying attention.
I much prefer to find a horse that was quietly supported (either early or on the track) and subsequently beaten as connections have then given you a steer for the future.
It is also apparent to me over the years that connections will quickly lose courage if they "do" their dough on a first-time gamble and thus you often find horses go unbacked on some subsequent runs. This is why belief in your selection process is vital.
As an aside, I notice that Donn McClean, who listed horses-to-follow weekly, has disappeared from the Irish Field to be replaced by Mark Howard. I've no idea how McClean's selections did over the years but its a shabby way to treat your readers when he disappears without trace or comment regardless of whose decision it was.
I much prefer to find a horse that was quietly supported (either early or on the track) and subsequently beaten as connections have then given you a steer for the future.
It is also apparent to me over the years that connections will quickly lose courage if they "do" their dough on a first-time gamble and thus you often find horses go unbacked on some subsequent runs. This is why belief in your selection process is vital.
As an aside, I notice that Donn McClean, who listed horses-to-follow weekly, has disappeared from the Irish Field to be replaced by Mark Howard. I've no idea how McClean's selections did over the years but its a shabby way to treat your readers when he disappears without trace or comment regardless of whose decision it was.
One of the most astute observations on here for a while......
"It is also apparent to me over the years that connections will quickly lose courage if they "do" their dough on a first-time gamble and thus you often find horses go unbacked on some subsequent runs"
One of the less astute observations below. By the time you have decided that a jockey or trainer is 'in-form', the value is gone, as those early wins (before you have spotted the trend) will be in all subsequent calculations. It threfore needs to be a spectacular in form run for you to benefit. There will always be exceptions, but you seem to be a systems man and therefore should be guided by the Rule.
One system that seems to work on a very regular basis for both flat and national hunt is following a jockey or trainer in form altho' the latter can be hit-or-miss. Check out any journeyman/conditional/apprentice jockey riding a big winner at a major meeting and the number of times they score on subsequent near-term mounts is eye-catching.
Two spectacular examples that come to mind randomly: Declan McDonagh following a Royal Ascot winner and Andrew Lynch follwing a Cheltenham Festival winner.
"It is also apparent to me over the years that connections will quickly lose courage if they "do" their dough on a first-time gamble and thus you often find horses go unbacked on some subsequent runs"
One of the less astute observations below. By the time you have decided that a jockey or trainer is 'in-form', the value is gone, as those early wins (before you have spotted the trend) will be in all subsequent calculations. It threfore needs to be a spectacular in form run for you to benefit. There will always be exceptions, but you seem to be a systems man and therefore should be guided by the Rule.
One system that seems to work on a very regular basis for both flat and national hunt is following a jockey or trainer in form altho' the latter can be hit-or-miss. Check out any journeyman/conditional/apprentice jockey riding a big winner at a major meeting and the number of times they score on subsequent near-term mounts is eye-catching.
Two spectacular examples that come to mind randomly: Declan McDonagh following a Royal Ascot winner and Andrew Lynch follwing a Cheltenham Festival winner.
I take your general point on in-form trainers/jockeys the jolly even if it's not the point I made.
In form trainers: it is generally accepted that the trainer/stable must be in some level of "form" before you back their inmates. What "form" constitutes is another debate. The Racing Post, for example, use collateral ratings to give a measure of how trainers are performing. I have tried over the years using all types of different measures/graphs to try to forecast when a trainer may be coming into form i.e. trying to judge if losers and also-rans have run better than previous outings etc.
However, it usually does need a winner to show that the corner has been turned if the horses have been running poorly.
I usually wouldn't dream of following a trainer who is "on a roll" as, invariably, as you point out, all the value is well gone.
As most people would agree following any system blindly is not wise but I put up the in-form jockey as one particular example that can throw up big-priced winners you might never fancy as a method of showing that a jockey's confidence can make a difference. Best recent example: Conor O'Farrell's Cheltenham winner followed up (almost immediately) by his win in the midland's National at 20/1.
In form trainers: it is generally accepted that the trainer/stable must be in some level of "form" before you back their inmates. What "form" constitutes is another debate. The Racing Post, for example, use collateral ratings to give a measure of how trainers are performing. I have tried over the years using all types of different measures/graphs to try to forecast when a trainer may be coming into form i.e. trying to judge if losers and also-rans have run better than previous outings etc.
However, it usually does need a winner to show that the corner has been turned if the horses have been running poorly.
I usually wouldn't dream of following a trainer who is "on a roll" as, invariably, as you point out, all the value is well gone.
As most people would agree following any system blindly is not wise but I put up the in-form jockey as one particular example that can throw up big-priced winners you might never fancy as a method of showing that a jockey's confidence can make a difference. Best recent example: Conor O'Farrell's Cheltenham winner followed up (almost immediately) by his win in the midland's National at 20/1.
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