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BJG
03 May 11 23:14
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Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 29,810 | Blogger: BJG's blog
3.40

Captain Paulie won at Cork last time on good ground beating Old Theatre Royal (won at Ballinrobe 3 days later) by a short head even though he jumped the last 2 very poorly.
That was a big step up from his debut run in handicap company where he seemed to struggle in the softer ground at Wexford. Up 7lbs for that but the jock takes 4lbs off here and can go in again

Captain Paulie worth an e/w bet for me at around the likely 10/1 mark


4.20

Empire Levant likely to be a warm enough favourite around the 7/4 mark but could nt be havin it at that price. Will need to settle better early to win.

Street Entertainer showed a massive improvement in form last time at Chepstow when absolutely hacking up when backed off the boards(13-2 into 11/4). That was a massive step forward in form from his 1st 2 runs over hurdles and hopefully there is more improvement to come with Tony McCoy taking the ride

Street Entertainer e/w if 9/2 or better, no bet if not

4.55

An interesting race in prospect here which is added to by the 2 impressive Aintree winners Battle Group and Saint Are makin the trip over
But im willing to give Mossey Joe one more chance here, a massively impreesive winner of his first 4 lifetime starts - 2ptps, 1 hunter Chase and a 3m G3 hurdle at Cork where he beats Fists of Fury unextended by 9l
Fists of Fury was 4th at Aintree last time behind Saint Are beaten around the same distance but Mossey Joe had a lot more in the tank that day at Cork
Mossey Joe was a big disappointment last time though when well backed in the G2 Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown behind Mourad which was a much stronger race than this(i think anyway!) He travelled like an absolute dream this day (traded 1.97 i/r) before emptying very quickly up the straight, im always willing to forgive one bad run and think he will go close here

Back Mossey Joe at around 9/1 on here and green up around 3 in running(as he usually travels extremely well and should look good at some stage with PC on board) if he drops that low


5.30

nb

The race of the day here which can be easily narrowed down to 3 runners in Kauto Star, Nacarat and Kempes
Could nt blame anyone for backing Kauto Star at 11/8 or that way but i just cant foget his lacklustre performance in the King George - ran much better at Chelt last time though
Nacarat was a good winner of the Totesport Bowl at Aintree last time and just looking at the race he could once more be given a very easy lead here and wont be easy to peg back

But my preference is for Kempes who disappointed at Chelt last time when he never travelled at all when not unfancied
An impressive winner of the Irish Hennessy in February and is a Course and Distance winner when winning the G1 Novice Chase here last season

Back Kempes e/w at 4/1 and hope the 8 run

Probably 1.01 to be 7 or less runners tho Laugh

6.05

Nap

Am quite surprised how short Waaheb is - as impressive as he has been in his victories- i think this is a decent step up in class for him even though he receives weight from most of his rivals

In the 3 bumpers he has won - Jenari is the only horse to have come out and won since - in all 21 horses have run out of the 3 bumpers and only 2 have even been in the money

The impressive Aintree bumper winner in Steps to Freedom - the Cheltenham bumper 3rd and 4th in Aupcharlie and Go All the way - Lovethehigherlaw who should improve massively for the better ground - Caolaneoin, eycatcher on debut and nice winner last time

Im quite happy to lay Waaheb at 5/4 here

6.40

Lottery! Scotsirish was only beaten 2 3/4l by Big Zeb in the G1 Dial a Bet Chase over Christmas and was beaten just over 3l in the G2 Clonmel Oil Chase behind Tranquil Sea-if back to the form of either of those could take a lot of beating here but has ground to make up on Osana from their meeting last time but hopefully gets a more forceful ride this time

Scotsirish small win bet at 8/1

7.15

Faha got a horrible ride last time when beaten into 2nd at Clonmel but that was a poor race i thought
But i think there could be a lot of e/w value in backing Crocus Bay here at around 6/1 hopefully or that way

Ran a very good race at Leopardstown over Christmas when going down by just over 3l to the highly thought of Bold Optimist
Felix Younger 2nd that day won nto

and with normal improvement should give a good account here

Crocus Bay e/w at 5/1 or better


If only it was that easy LaughCool

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Replies: 45
By:
thefly10
When: 03 May 11 23:53
Good work BJG.

I'm with you on the champion bumper, I think Waaheb will be turned over. Steps To Freedom for me, impressive winner of the Aintree bumper. The conditions will suit both horses but the way STF quickened to win well was very impressive. Expect a good showdown. Of the rest in the race; Don't know what to make of the Cheltenham bumper but both Aupcharlie and Go All The Way are respected. The later has only ran twice and maybe should have won first time out here last year.
By:
BJG
When: 04 May 11 02:15
Mossey Joe is expected to benefit from the run when he makes his reappearance in the Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle at Punchestown tomorrow.
The Moscow Society gelding will be making his first start for Declan McNamara in the Grade 2 event.

The County Clare-based trainer has revealed that the eight-year-old is set for a chasing campaign following tomorrow's run.

Mossey Joe, winner of two point-to-points and a hunters chase last season, hit the headlines when running away with a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle at Cork last December.

He was well-fancied against some seasoned campaigners in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and travelled well for a long way before fading in the straight behind Mourad.

“I've had him for two months and he's had a few niggly problems,” said McNamara today.

“We'd expect him to improve a good lot and if he ran into a place we'd be very happy.

“Chasing is his main aim and he'll go chasing after this. Once the ground is safe we'll keep him on the go.

“He's handled decent ground before so I wouldn't be too worried about it tomorrow.”



Why the change of trainer by the way Confused
By:
Newmanix
When: 04 May 11 08:26
letter of credit
By:
yourlack
When: 04 May 11 08:35
Quiet thought in the 1st looks like a dessie hughes improver, prob has the best jock on too.
Raptor in the novice hurdle was impressed with him last time and he is a  most impressive looking animal.
Lovethehigherlaw is meant to be very well regarded and i think its best just to forget his last run as a few of willies ran poorly that week.
Best of luck everyoneCool
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 04 May 11 10:21
Cheers for the preview, BJG. An interesting read as always.

Quiet Thought in the first for me, not too sure about the rest of the card.
By:
Giant Strides
When: 04 May 11 10:40
Good write up BJG.
Noticed that last night re the change of trainer for Mossey Joe. Strange!
This chaps only had 1 winner. Confused
I`ll expect he`ll make a better chaser alright. Seemed to love those fixed hurdles in Cork.
By:
Swinia
When: 04 May 11 10:41
Very Interested in Brain Coopers column in the RP today and he's very bullish on Raz De Maree. Huge step up in class but he feels he'll be better horse in this livelier ground.

Steps to Freedom won very easy last day against a good yard stick. Stables in great form. I can never get Nina right though SadMullins really likes Loveristhehigher Law, its rare to see one of their top bumper horses go off at 14's. [:o]
By:
workrider
When: 04 May 11 10:56
..  cant see nacarat been given an easy lead bjg..i think kauto will take him on after a mile....
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 10:57
My spin on the 5.30 Punchestown.....

Follow The Plan@40's

Ran well in this race last year on today's ground, before fading to 7th (5 lengths behind Denman) and it would be fair to say has improved past Denman on last run at Aintree  who in turn held off  Kauto Star by 4 lengths at Cheltenham (that makes Nacarat the danger) Follow The value ........

Good Luck BJG
By:
downallstar
When: 04 May 11 12:34
3.40 Model County Lass e/w
4.55 Raptor
5.30 Kempes e/w @9/2 & FTP e/w @40s (backed yesterday).
6.05 Jenari
GL.
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 15:40
3.40 Save My Blushes NO BET here though
By:
thefly10
When: 04 May 11 16:02
Magical Memoir in the next.
By:
Latinomagic
When: 04 May 11 16:39
4.55 Gonna give Tom Hogan's Mount Helicon a squeak here at a big price - 66/1. 5th behind Unaccompanied at Curragh recently having his first run after  wind op. Looks like it worked. Has already won over 3 miles. Rated 103 on the flat - could be loads of improvement in this fella after the op. Remember this trainer having a big priced winner here at the festival a few years back with Sonnyandjoe.
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 17:02
BJG

Mossey Joe well done on green up ...  thought it might get there
By:
workrider
When: 04 May 11 17:03
good call, looked winner between last 2 ...
By:
The Gotchee
When: 04 May 11 17:18
My two for the e/w punters are Aupcharlie 9/1 a consistant and improving sort who ran well at Cheltenham and is well up to winning here and Conem20/1 who runs really well in good class handicaps carrying feather weights. The big negative with him is his jockey Andrew Leigh Cry
By:
thefly10
When: 04 May 11 17:20
Indeed Mossey Joe looked the winner before they jumped the second last.
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 17:37
FCoolllCoolw The Plan
By:
workrider
When: 04 May 11 17:37
well done das ..super call...
By:
downallstar
When: 04 May 11 17:40
GET IN!
Wd Virgin.
Cool

Of Boils tooLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 17:50
dCoolwnallstar
By:
workrider
When: 04 May 11 17:50
well done virgin only noticed your post now ...2 great calls lads
By:
dj876
When: 04 May 11 17:52
605 punch 
Go all the way second on debut here  last year and a staying on 4th on only subsequent start  in chelt fest bumper after an interrupted build up,imo is a massive price at nearly 3/1 to place
By:
soapp
When: 04 May 11 17:56
That's what this forum is all about not the aftertiming and bitching etc.

What a shout Virgin. a 40/1 winner. Yee haa Grin

Ted Walsh was aftertiming on the TV about Kauto Star, prefering a horse to bow out on top rather than like he performed here. Most people expected him to win here rather than pull up.
Nacarat and Kempes ran stinkers too. Cheltenham and Aintree often leave a mark and that's what happened here.
I reckon Kauto Star will be shown in much better light in the James Nicholson next November. DON'T RETIRE HIM UNLESS SOMETHING SHOWS UP.
By:
BJG
When: 04 May 11 18:00
wd V and DAS


About time to retire Kauto imo -
By:
thefly10
When: 04 May 11 18:02
Well done to the lads who were on Follow the Plan. Terrible mistake by Roberto Goldback at the last, hope the horse is fine.
By:
BJG
When: 04 May 11 18:32
Nice performances from the first 3 in the bumper there i thought
By:
downallstar
When: 04 May 11 18:38
TedLaugh
By:
workrider
When: 04 May 11 18:39
he's something else alright....Laugh
By:
downallstar
When: 04 May 11 18:44
wtf was the starter at there?
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 18:45
BJG 6.05 Nap Lay

well done [;)] not often we see those come off
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 18:51
BJG Cool 6.40 well done
By:
soapp
When: 04 May 11 18:54
Great tipping lads once again.
By:
dj876
When: 04 May 11 18:57
good thread   
wd virgin on big priced winner 
wd bjg great write up and i think 4/6 successful so far .impressive[;)]
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 18:58
BJG

I know you're not one to blow your own trumpet but I see you got the 4.20 winner as well Shocked

Well done again
By:
BJG
When: 04 May 11 19:03
Crocus Rose out to over 15 on here Shocked

Value Cool
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 19:16
yourlack

sorry missed your winner - Lovethehigherlaw well done

BJG is grateful as well Love

Thread full of winners Cool
By:
BJG
When: 04 May 11 19:22
Bumper Boil over [smiley:crazy]
By:
Virgin
When: 04 May 11 19:23
4/7 best not get greedy [;)]
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