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Allez
18 May 10 12:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 358 | Blogger: Allez's blog
Can we have this years Eurovision winner please?

Any info would be greatly appreciated, but it will be hard to top last years superb advice.

Thanks in advance.
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Report keen leader May 19, 2010 1:49 PM BST
i am trying to trickle my own bets into the system at the moment, so i wont say much until maybe saturday.

suffice to say this is wide open this time, not a chance that azerbaijan is a true 2/1 shot more like 7/1 at best in my book, and the 3rd in, israel, at 8/1 is an absolute no hoper, I have it at 200/1 all day....so the market is simply wrong and therefore there are real ricks.

until we see the german rehearsal, all bets are off, this kid, the german version of cheryl cole, could resonate with juries or make no impact, and this german song alone makes the market tough to call.

there is one certainty at a price capable of paying for a good quality summer holiday...as i say i will be back later over the weekend and pass it on........in the meantime if you want, just lay israel in all the markets, ie to win, to finish top 4, to finish top ten, as i dont see this registering at all.
Report BJG May 19, 2010 2:19 PM BST
I av had one bet on de advice of a friend of a friend - Israel Laugh


Oh well Sad
Report Allez May 19, 2010 6:18 PM BST
Cheers, best of luck with your bets, and look forward to reading your thoughts Saturday.
Report keen leader May 21, 2010 1:50 PM BST
ok allez, now is the time to step in and bet.

the contest has 2 semi finals(tuesday and thursday) and the final next saturday.

the market to get your punting teeth stuck into is semi final 1 on tuesday night. this is regarded as a very weak semi final. in a sea of mediocrity there is one absolute stand out performer and that is greece...now it is more of a war chant than a song, it is presented in a dramatic way and by far and away the most memorable entry in semi final 1.

3 years ago the finnish monsters lordi came from nowhere to win outright due to a dramatic and memorable performance, should greece get a good late draw in final( the order will not be known until 11pm on Thursday night), then their current outright price of 66/1 could be manna from heaven.

priced between 3/1 and 4/1 with 1/4 1,2,3 generally available, greece are certain to finish in the 3 in semi final 1 and in my book i would make them around 4/7 to win, the lack of neighbours voting in this semi final is a minor negative, however greece will absorb votes from all juries and that will be enough to get them across the line.

by the way VC are offering 1/10 on greece qualifying for the final, the easiest 10% interest you are going to get on your money in all of 2010.

so have a good wedge on greece at 7/2, 4/1 to win semi final 1, put them in each way doubles/trebles with any each way steal horses in the next few days and build yourself a nice multiplier.............also a few bucks each way on greece at 66/1 for the outright 1/4 1234 will give you a good trading position at least come next saturday night.
Report ricky butcher May 21, 2010 2:11 PM BST
Cheers Keen Leader. Top class stuff.

Is Israel still a massive lay for you?
Report Allez May 21, 2010 6:16 PM BST
Super stuff as always KL, much appreciated.

Thanks.
Report BraveInca2006. May 22, 2010 8:30 PM BST
Is it that time of year again already? Champions league final, the start of the Championship and Keen Leaders Eurovision preview. Will we have another monster gamble like last years runaway winner Norway.....will we have another fairytale. I was quite popular with her indoors that night after telling her to have her max bet (a score) on Norway during the week.
Report frank60 May 24, 2010 4:21 PM BST
ITS OFFICAL/// K.LEADER KNOWS, made a bob or three last year on his advice, but will we hear for from the great one before the end of the week// got greece at 4/1 to win there s/final,are you out there o great one, i need the winner or a top 4 outsider,
Report The Icchantika May 24, 2010 4:26 PM BST
Greece on the slide!
Report Allez May 25, 2010 9:33 PM BST
In to favorite again now.

Don't find out results until Saturday though, hopefully someone might be able to update us on how it's going before then.
Report Market Wizard2 May 25, 2010 9:34 PM BST
is it just who qualifies tonight so?anyway of knowing clues about who won each semi?
Report Allez May 25, 2010 9:38 PM BST
Yeah, just who qualifies tonight, market not settled until results announced after the final on Saturday.
Report Market Wizard2 May 25, 2010 9:42 PM BST
so after he whole thing finishes then they say who won each semi?is that not to put pre medidated ideas in voters minds bout who may be good/not good etc.jeez iv these funds tied up til sat! and still could lose!
Report The Icchantika May 25, 2010 10:40 PM BST
It's not a punter friendly market alright.
Report frank60 May 26, 2010 1:11 AM BST
got greese at 5.2 and 6.4 to win to nites simi/final on k.l.advice laid at 3.2 late on,a bet to nothing n1
Report keen leader May 26, 2010 12:17 PM BST
bet 2: semi final 2 on thursday night

turkey at 12/1, 1/4 123 nailed on to place and an excellent chance of winning this semi final.
Report celticboy May 26, 2010 1:38 PM BST
Any idea how Greece did?
Report scoobyknows May 26, 2010 2:49 PM BST
greece qualified last night!
Report frank60 May 26, 2010 11:04 PM BST
keen leader if turkey can win there s/final tomorrow night at odds of  12/1  why can they not win at odds of 33/1 in the final,  7 of the top songs in the betting are in tomorrows simi/final therefore laddies odds of 33/1 e/w[ 1/4 odds 1st four] most be a cracking bet. FRANK IS ONNNNNNNNNNN.
Report keen leader May 27, 2010 12:12 AM BST
a fair question frank.....so to answer...in my original intro i said the outright market was impossible to call because germany is the real wild card with a super late draw in the final....i did say that azeribaijan was a poor fav and israel a no hoper...azer will drift to a price circa 5/1 in the next 2 days, israel has drifted from 7/1 to 16/1 and will be 50/1 after tomorrow night.

....now tomorrow night turkey has the prime draw of last in semi final 2....we have 20 countries voting in this semi for each entry(3 of the guaranteed finalists also vote)...so each country chases votes from 19 countries..

...analysing the 19 countries, historical voting patterns(thanks to the large turkish disapora) suggests and will actually produce a minimum of 6 or even 7, 12 points max for Turkey in this semi and that will guarantee 1st in semi final 2....no country will come close to this number of 12 points, deadly rivals azerbaijan and armenia will be fishing out of the same shallow ex soviet pool in this semi...i think armenia will fare best of the 2.....the only other song with a shot of winning this semi is sweden...but there are only 3 nordic area countries voting, placing them at a distinct disadvantage.

my call on this semi is (1) turkey by a landslide, then either armenia or sweden to place 2nd or 3rd.

i do think, given a good late draw in the final, turkey could be an outright contender and is a fair e/w bet at 25/1 1/4 1234 for the final...the draw being crucial....greece were done no favours with a middle to low draw for the final.   

for the final...i have taken the view that azerbaijan will not win....so the winner will come from in no particular order,

armenia, germany, belgium, sweden, turkey or greece.....the rest forget about..

...until the complete final draw is revealed tomorrow night all bets are off....
Report celticboy May 27, 2010 11:44 AM BST
Not sure how this comp works - did not see it  -  Did Greece finish in the top 3 in their semi?  Thanks.
Report punkha1 May 27, 2010 12:01 PM BST
Total respect for your knowledge and views KL but no chance of Azer been 5/1,id be suprised to even see them touch 11/4 or 3/1.
Report scoobyknows May 27, 2010 2:25 PM BST
the results of the semis wont be known til sat night celticboy!
Report celticboy May 27, 2010 3:01 PM BST
Thanks scooby.
Report frank60 May 27, 2010 4:29 PM BST
AS ever a great post K. L, HAD A BET E/W WITH LADDIES 33/1 1ST 4,  want up this morning to have another greedy bite of the turkey cherry price down  to 23/1 [down 10pts] Cant complain im on at good prices on betfair as well. hope turkey is on the menu tonight kl and if its not no harm done ,you sure owe your belivers NOWT.GOOD LUCK FRANK
Report ricky butcher May 27, 2010 6:26 PM BST
Some big money waiting to back Azerbaijan.
Report tobywong. May 27, 2010 8:31 PM BST
she is a fine lass
Report tobywong. May 27, 2010 8:33 PM BST
catchy tune too
Report irishro May 27, 2010 8:34 PM BST
Drip Drop :)
Report frank60 May 28, 2010 10:26 PM BST
Have some nice bet on turkey win and e/w K.L, WHAT are you thoughts of laying them , there are half the price now then when i back them during the early part of the week, TO LAY OR NOT TO LAY THAT IS THE QUESTION, TY FRANK
Report keen leader May 28, 2010 10:58 PM BST
ok lads my final contribution on the subject...if you have backed greece and turkey each way for the 2 semis I think your place money is coming back, and do not be surprised if both have won.

without repeating myself,  the final is tough to call: given that there now is no strong balkan entry, the destination of the major balkan votes may decide this contest. the only shock exit was sweden.

the winner will come from: armenia, germany, greece, or turkey....with outside shots for georgia(best singer in the contest by a mile, pithy she has an obstacle course of a cheorography) and the up tempo romania.....

will 39 juries vote for a German entry?, the kid is a charmer, but she is German.....Armenia, Georgia and Azer may be fishing out of the same ex soviet pool so may damage one another.....so that leaves Greece and Turkey in play...both have memorable acts. So I will let you make up your own mind on the eventual winner...my plays have been all each ways: at 66/1 Greece, ditto Turkey 33/1, Armenia 18/1 and a saver at 150/1 Romania.

Now the final guaranteed winner for you all:

this is an "in running" event also during the voting...so it is important to know the sequence in which votes are declared:

here is the order of casting national votes:
Voting order in the final:

1. Romania
2. Ireland
3. Germany
4. Serbia
5. Albania
6. Turkey
7. Croatia
8. Poland
9. Bosnia & Herzegovina
10. Finland
11. Slovenia
12. Estonia
13. Russia
14. Portugal
15. Azerbaijan
16. Greece
17. Iceland
18. Denmark
19. France
20. Spain
21. Slovakia
22. Bulgaria
23. Ukraine
24. Latvia
25. Malta
26. Norway
27. Cyprus
28. Lithuania
29. Belarus
30. Switzerland
31. Belgium
32. United Kingdom
33. Netherlands
34. Israel
35. Macedonia
36. Moldova
37. Georgia
38. Sweden
39. Armenia

I have no idea how the Irish jury will cast their votes: however as happens annually Turkey and Greece will both score very highly from Romania(12 or 10 in either order), Germany(will give 12 to turkey), and jury 5 Albania(will also give Greece 12 and Turkey 10 or vice versa)

....so by the end of voting of the first 5 juries....Turkey and Greece will be 1 and 2 atop the leader board.....their current betfair prices as I write are Turkey(16.0) and Greece(28.0)....given the scenario emerging that I forecast, by jury 5 declaration....Turkey will be 7.0 or lower and Greece 12.0 or lower, at that point trade out and enjoy the rest of the voting safe in the knowledge you cannot lose and may well be on the winner.

so in summary: back(if you have not done already) Turkey at 14.0 or above, Greece at 25.0 or above: hold until after the Albanian vote declaration and then lay off at significantly lower.
Report scoobyknows May 28, 2010 11:38 PM BST
great stuff keen leader cheers!
Report Allez May 28, 2010 11:49 PM BST
Awesome stuff as always KL. Much appreciated and good luck.
Report frank60 May 29, 2010 12:09 AM BST
in the movie the greastest story ever told johh wayne played the part of the roman centurion, looking up at the cross he uttered the following,  truely this man is the son of gadd, ok keen leader maybe your not quite that good but if turkey win the eurovision you will be only be beaten by a short head by johns buddy, tx for your input.frank
Report vinnie_roe May 29, 2010 12:57 AM BST
Keen leader - I reckon you could hold out on trading Greece until after the turkey vote.
Report Allez May 29, 2010 9:06 PM BST
Greece are a massive price now, going back in again to trade later.
Report The Gotchee May 29, 2010 10:03 PM BST
France for me.Grin
Report BraveInca2006. May 29, 2010 10:06 PM BST
I am all over Lena for this. Israel massive drifter.
Report Allez May 29, 2010 10:43 PM BST
Looking good Brave.
Report observerirl May 29, 2010 10:47 PM BST
Your call on a 2.26 bet(Azer) at one point was spot on. Well done KL
Report Market Wizard2 May 29, 2010 10:52 PM BST
does anyone know semi final results or is this after the wole thing is over???????
Report BraveInca2006. May 29, 2010 10:59 PM BST
Semi results announced at end of voting but KL advised bets of Turkey and Greece cannot be too far away.

Go Lena!! I will have a few Bavarias and Jagers tonight.
Report Doyler1987 May 29, 2010 11:00 PM BST
Whole of Europe hates us Laugh
Report Market Wizard2 May 29, 2010 11:04 PM BST
i bloody hope he aint far away after that trade on greece clearly didnt work out!!
Report vinnie_roe May 29, 2010 11:20 PM BST
Ireland deserved better then that. Are results have been really poor now for some time.
Report grade 1 May 29, 2010 11:21 PM BST
keen leader advice was top notch.

Germans waving flags scares the poo out of me.
Report Allez May 29, 2010 11:21 PM BST
BOOM Turkey win second semi.

Greece 2nd in first.
Report BraveInca2006. May 29, 2010 11:22 PM BST
We didnt deserve better than that. Bland song, no performance at all.

KL - good calls on Azer and Israel in particular. The latter singing in Hebrew was a non starter and then a shocking performance tonight. Greece, Turkey and Armenia all gave you a good run for Top 10 at the least.
Report BraveInca2006. May 29, 2010 11:24 PM BST
Where did you see that Allez - great news if true!
Report Allez May 29, 2010 11:26 PM BST
On official site.

Get in, epic stuff from KL as usual.
Report The Icchantika May 29, 2010 11:27 PM BST
I think that the appearance of our entry left a lot to be desired. Sending a middle aged ginger chubster to a competition full of tasty young ones is a slap in the face to our European neighbours. The aesthetic is all important in these types of competitions. We got more than we deserved- fat ginger wearing curtains = nul points in my book.
Report itcanbedone May 29, 2010 11:29 PM BST
Arise Sir Keen Leader.  Outstanding as ever.  Thanks a lot.
Report vinnie_roe May 29, 2010 11:36 PM BST
First Semi-Final (27 May)

01. Belgium (167 points)
02. Greece (133)
03. Iceland (123)
04. Portugal (89)
05. Serbia (79)
06. Albania (76)
07. Russia (74)
08. Bosnia & Herzegovina (59)
09. Belarus (59)
10. Moldova (52)
11. Finland (49)
12. Malta (45)
13. Poland (44)
14. Estonia (39)
15. FYR Macedonia (37)
16. Slovakia (24)
17. Latvia (11)
Report vinnie_roe May 29, 2010 11:37 PM BST
Second Semi-Final

01. Turkey (118 points)
02. Azerbaijan (113)
03. Georgia (106)
04. Romania (104)
05. Denmark (101)
06. Armenia (83)
07. Ukraine (77)
08. Israel (71)
09. Ireland (67)
10. Cyprus (67)
11. Sweden (62)
12. Lithuania (44)
13. Croatia (33)
14. The Netherlands (29)
15. Bulgaria (19)
16. Slovenia (6)
17. Switzerland (2)
Report RedSox May 29, 2010 11:38 PM BST
Top drawer from Keen Leader again, 3rd year in a row that I've cleared a nice chunk in this contest solely on his advice.

BTW, I got a lay matched on Greece at 15.0 during voting, so it was not that far out Market Wizard2.
Report 1.01's no fun May 29, 2010 11:39 PM BST
well done KL-profitable advice once again
Report scoobyknows May 29, 2010 11:40 PM BST
good stuff keen leader well done!
Report vinnie_roe May 29, 2010 11:41 PM BST
keen leader

bet 2: semi final 2 on thursday night

turkey at 12/1, 1/4 123 nailed on to place and an excellent chance of winning this semi final.


excellent tipping
Report downallstar May 29, 2010 11:45 PM BST
Top stuff as always KL.
Report Market Wizard2 May 29, 2010 11:51 PM BST
top stuff with the semi final results Keen Leader .Thanks very much!! Well done and you did well with turkey o/r e/w.

Whoever got Greece to lay at 15 clearly didnt wait til turkeys points as i did as i expected turkey to be more genorous than 3pts to Greece.

Still very profitable week as usual due to K.L
Report frank60 May 30, 2010 12:04 AM BST
well done keen leader, ps would you be interested representing ireland next year. got turkey to win its simi/final at 14.5 happy days,
Report vinnie_roe May 30, 2010 12:29 AM BST
Denmark were trading less then evens after 2 voting nations, which stopped turkey and greece from trading low, still managed to trade out for a profit on turkey after croatia gave 12 pts.
Report lustrumm May 30, 2010 12:59 AM BST
Marty Whelan was moaning about Oireland getting shafted but to be fair what did we expect. Peig Sayers would not have worn the Curtain she wore as a dress both nights, and to think there was a hulaballo over her outfit.
Kavanagh is not a small girl any more but she is nowhere near the size that dress made her look.
It really is hard to credit we are the roll of honour holders to this day
Report Dan Chipowski May 30, 2010 2:09 AM BST
The entire contest has changed from the old days.

Tis probably for the better...but Ireland's days of winning are long gone. So sending any respected artists over is useless, should do what the english do and send over some gormless kid.
Report celticboy May 30, 2010 9:53 AM BST
Very well done Keen Leader.
Report Tolmi May 30, 2010 10:12 AM BST
Top class analysis KL.Great to see someone able to put up recommendations and back them up with well thought out reasoning.Easy discern from the thread those who could see the reasoning behind the value in your selections and acted accordingly and those who did not.
Report 3753 Cruithne May 30, 2010 12:15 PM BST
Excellent work Keen Leader, take a bow.
Report frank60 May 30, 2010 12:39 PM BST
nice post tolmi, have the thought that while the eurovision is watched by people of all ages that 8 out of every 10 voters are probabley under 35years old the results would bare that out, seems the day of the strong balled has no chance, the presentation by the hosts was different but very good , seemed to be aimed at the future of the contest, im watching eurovision since the 60s and hope to watch it for many moons to come , ps might be a good idea if Ireland had JEWARD PUT FORWARD FOR NEXT YEAR much better singers then Niamh kavanagh LOL, Till next year , tx again kl
Report Deep Impact May 30, 2010 12:51 PM BST
Superb effort as always, KL Happy
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