Irish Sports
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The one that really gets me is the HYPE of the eagely awaited stable gallop between Kauto Star and Denman sorry thay should read eagely awaited Gold Cup clash.
It does nothing for me. Take it as a betting event. How can you back anybody but Kauto Star when the best jockey riding at the moment had already picked it. Its pure stupidty to think you know better than he does. x-(
True they get it wrong but you never going to get rich 2nd guessing Champion Jockeys for your banker bet. :(
I could swallow the hype if they moved Denman to Willie Mullins as a battle of England v Ireland in every sense of the world.
But the way it is at the moment to me is just one step above a stable gallop that these boys probably have every morning between themselves when Nicholls is not looking. :0
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The other one that gets me this year is Dunguib. For me he's the best of a bad lot of novice hurlers this year and nothing else. All this talk of Champion Hurdles is also just down to a poor lot decent Championship hurlers as well. If Rooster Booste was running this year he would p1ss on the present lot and I never thought I would ever say that about that horse when it come to talking about potential or repeat Champion hurdle winners.
Was it KELLY who reckon O'grady Golden Cygnet would have beaten Dunguib by 30 lengths in the Supreme Novices if they had met and I find it hard to contradicit him on that statement.
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Have you any other HYPE that you feel you could do without hearing in the next fews week as the build up to Cheltenham gets into full flow? .........Cheers
It does nothing for me. Take it as a betting event. How can you back anybody but Kauto Star when the best jockey riding at the moment had already picked it. Its pure stupidty to think you know better than he does. x-(
True they get it wrong but you never going to get rich 2nd guessing Champion Jockeys for your banker bet. :(
I could swallow the hype if they moved Denman to Willie Mullins as a battle of England v Ireland in every sense of the world.
But the way it is at the moment to me is just one step above a stable gallop that these boys probably have every morning between themselves when Nicholls is not looking. :0
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The other one that gets me this year is Dunguib. For me he's the best of a bad lot of novice hurlers this year and nothing else. All this talk of Champion Hurdles is also just down to a poor lot decent Championship hurlers as well. If Rooster Booste was running this year he would p1ss on the present lot and I never thought I would ever say that about that horse when it come to talking about potential or repeat Champion hurdle winners.
Was it KELLY who reckon O'grady Golden Cygnet would have beaten Dunguib by 30 lengths in the Supreme Novices if they had met and I find it hard to contradicit him on that statement.
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Have you any other HYPE that you feel you could do without hearing in the next fews week as the build up to Cheltenham gets into full flow? .........Cheers
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Ruby got it wrong in 2008 and anyway he seems to have a soft spot for KS.
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Not hard to have a soft spot for a horse so laden with talent.
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DB..These Grade 1 races are all about having a cut on something when the 2nd favourite is a stable companion it kills that both for a price and for confidence. Add into that the best jockey riding has already made his pick its total madness especially in a race like the Gold Cup to have that cut on the one he rejected. It just won't pay in the long run.
Okay horses are not machines and how they turn up on the day is always in the lap pf the g0ds. Just personally I think if Racing for Change wants to promote the festival they can find a better race than this to dig up...... I am thinking of going over but if I do I won't bother hanging around for Gold Cup day I have no interest what so ever in spending the day over there where the feature event is going to be a stable gallop....Cheers |
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I did a bit of research into backing stable 2nd-strings in Group races a couple of years back. Restricted it to races where the stable had only 2 runners and also where the 2nd-string was still fancied (to ignore pace-makers) and the results showed a decent enough profit.
IMO the stable jockey's mount will almost always be overbet by the public and where both horses have a realistic winning chance, there's money to be made backing the 2nd string. I agree about the over-hype though but at this stage, I'm well used to it. |
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Had a quick look at my old spreadsheets and, backing the stable 2nd string in Gr1 races in 2007 would have shown a profit of 37.5 points from 16 races.
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DB...Not sure though would Group 1 races on the flat stats correspond with seasonal chasers or even hurlers.
The other thing that might not stand up as well. I think the likes of Denman will have more e/w appeal than his flat counterpart. So bookies will tell you they have to keep Denman shorter than his true win odds should be to allow for the place stake. Unfortunely that won't necessary mean Kauto Star will start longer to keep the book overound down. But it will be interesting to see what overound is returned. The flippant Grand National overounds these days are a embrassement and makes a mockery of the word BOOKmaker...Cheers |
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Think you're being very hard on Dunguib. His bumper form makes him the horse he is!
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bless, you sorting out a comp this year ?:|
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Where or who the horses represent is not what's important or exciting. It's their quality and the sheer spectacle that they are capable of producing. Denman's performance in 2008 and Kautos last year were special and if the two of them could produce their best on the same day it would be something extra special.
You make it sound as boring as a Kerry v Cork football match ;) . As or Dunguib, no one knows how good he can become but the potential is evident to most. People may be wrong in their opinions as to how good he will become but it is certain that no one can yet say how much he would be beaten by any horse from the past until he is fully extended (if ever :) ). As for grating hype...............try the "Kerry for 5 in a row" t-shirts. |
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KK...For most people all races are special that you have the winner of. I actually think they be much better keeping to the Ireland v England festival theme. Its worked for years why change it now.
Alternatively they could promote the financial aspect where fortunes are won by the ordinary Joe Soap either as a owner, trainer, or punter. I really have mimumal interest in the stable gallop thats going to be called a Gold Cup. ................................................................................................. As for Dunguib I was interested to read Tom Segal on his view of Irish racing and thought the future lied in Rite Of Passage and he could be the next Istabraq. .......................................................................................... As for your comments on a Kerry V Cork game its probably true. Sure lets face it come September we're just a different class to evrybody and its usually just about how far we win a game rather then could we. ;) |
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People who talk about the Gold Cup as if its a TWO horse race!!
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Observer....Teaser..
Who's your fancy then? It could be a great race without the big two or even just without Kauto Star. A cut on the winner then could make a guys Cheltenham...... Don't think a Kauto Star win will make too many punters Cheltenham......Cheers |
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Obviously the great Rooster Booster would murder horses of the calibre of Go Native and Solwhit. A great champion trained by a master of the art.
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I agree there obs.
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Well if Rooster would murder this year's field, surely Hardy would be an even bigger cert. He beat Rooster twice in the CH and once at Punchestown too! Surely Go Native is as good, if not better than Harchi, and Hardy only just beat Harchi in his first CH win.
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As much as i loved Rooster Booster, he would be murdered in this years CH imo
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Rooster booster :^0 pmsl
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1 Rooster Booster 9 12-0 Richard Johnson
P. J. Hobbs - - 5.50 2 11 Westender (FR) 7 12-0 b R. J. Greene M. C. Pipe - - 34 3 3 Rhinestone Cowboy (IRE) 7 12-0 N. Williamson Jonjo O'Neill - - 3.50 4 ¾ Self Defense 6 12-0 Barry Keniry Miss E. C. Lavelle - - 101 5 2½ Intersky Falcon 6 12-0 b L. Cooper Jonjo O'Neill - - 6 6 4 In Contrast (IRE) 7 12-0 B. J. Geraghty P. J. Hobbs - - 26 7 2 Landing Light (IRE) 8 12-0 b Mick Fitzgerald N. J. Henderson - - 15 8 2 Holy Orders (IRE) 6 12-0 b J. R. Barry W. P. Mullins, Ireland - - 101 9 5 Santenay (FR) 5 12-0 R. Walsh P. F. Nicholls - - 34 10 hd Like-a-butterfly (IRE) 9 11-9 C. F. Swan C. Roche, Ireland - - 7.50 11 4 Scottish Memories (IRE) 7 12-0 P. Carberry N. Meade, Ireland - - 26 12 1 Marble Arch 7 12-0 Timmy Murphy H. Morrison - - 26 13 16 Flame Creek (IRE) 7 12-0 S. E. Durack Noel T. Chance - - 15 14 3½ Scolardy (IRE) 5 12-0 D. J. Casey W. P. Mullins, Ireland - - 67 F Copeland 8 12-0 v A. P. Mccoy M. C. Pipe - - 26 rr Hors La Loi Iii (FR) 8 12-0 t Tony Dobbin J. R. Fanshawe - - 15 F Iberus (GER) 5 12-0 v Tom Scudamore M. C. Pipe - - 101 hardly a vintage year :| |
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Thats the point lads. Rooster Booster is a donkey compared to past Champion hurdle winners.
But he would have won this with a double handfull if last year Supreme Novice hurler winner and Triump winner is the best they can put up as favourite. The average top novice hurdle winners starts the season at least 35lbs behind Champion hurdle standard unless of coures its going to be a below par Champion hurdle like I feel this one is.......Cheers |
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Last years novices are a very good bunch, much better than last yrs Champion field imv.
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Blessington is clearly on a wind up. No one is this mad.
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I take it you are already on Go Native at prices tgm?
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I am. I think that he is still a big price and I think that he will win. Unless it comes up soft/heavy in which case Solwhit is a certainty.
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some good catches in the net already bless :)
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Kicking myself for not taking the 33s at the start of the season, but agree the 6s is still good.
Agree about the ground and Solwhit also. I think they'll finish 1-2 on GS. |
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Cashmans went 50/1 after Voler la Vedette beat it.
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Galwayman...Thinks this is a VINTAGE Champion Hurdle :^0
Galwayman give me some financial advice please. I need something to build my Cheltenham bets book off. Are, Master Minded 9/10 bet or lay Big Bucks 4/5 bet or lay Dunguib 1/1 bet or lay Quevega 6/4 bet or lay Kauto Star 9/10 bet or lay. As I'm sure your aware laying odds on shots at Cheltenham in past years has shown a winning return. So what do you recommend lay them all and let probabilty take it course or is this the year when stats should be thrown out the window? Or has ANYONE any better bets or lays or suggestions?......Cheers |
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I think that you should take all that money you have caught in your umbrella in Listowel over the years and stick it on Go Native to win the Champion.
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Shtar should get a months suspension for striking.
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Ah GALWAYMAN!... I never had you down as a fence sitter. :(
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Go Native has already achieved more at this stage of his career than Harchi.
Before last weekend I thought the Dunguib Champion Hurdle notion was ridiculous. Then Luska Lad won the Red Mills which either doesn`t say much for the Irish based challenge or it emphasises how good Dunguib is. The KS V Den thing is painful and I pay no attention to it. Still wont stop me being fascinated come post time though. |
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I was actually looking forward to the whole KS vs Denman build up before Saturday, as it is good for racings image, and it looked like the decider, as both losers had excuses each year.
Do agree its not just a 2 horse race though, IC and Cooldine have good chances. The jockey is my biggest concern for Cooldine though. :| |
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The jockey your biggest concern for Cooldine.Won't Paul Townend be riding this one.He is as good as Ruby imo.
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Come on the jigger, I know Ruby gets a lot of stick on here, but he's a class apart. PT is not even close to him.
I don't think i've seen a jockey ride as well as Ruby has been over the past month or so. |
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Down, "the stick" to which you refer, is not for when he`s trying.
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I know GS, he must be listening :D
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It's all about opinions i suppose and Ruby is a quality jockey but i do rate Paul Townend very highly.If ruby was unable to ride my horse he would be the first jockey i would be looking for to replace him.
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Ruby was at his best on Arkiva Legionnaire and Mourad in recent weeks.
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I`d imagine it`s just that time of the year down. Needs to get back into the winning thread in time for Chelt. ;)
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