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I'm a bit of a sucker for these type of articles. :(
For those who don't know the Racing Post is running series on some of the most successful professional punters in the business this week. Most of it does be basic stuff like specialise, watch as much racing as you can, inbetween some nonsense, but they do throw the ODD GEM or TWO in to ponder on.
One gem that does has me pondering was in Tuesday article with a Andy Gibson.
His gem was " SAY WHAT YOU SEE.....IGNORE WHAT YOU HEAR"
He reckons Top Trainers and Jockeys tips are best ignored because in lots of cases,
" He reckons they can't possibly have the time to objectively assess the relative merits of their horses plus the opposition in every race when you think of the demands of training the number of horses and keeping their owners informed".......He used Paul Nicholls column in the Racing Post as an example that he often gets it wrong.
He reckons when he hears a trainer say "I think we are up against it" and he Andy disagrees, that he regards it as GREAT NEWS as he will have a much better chance now of getting a better price.
As he is confident himself in what he saw from the horse on the racecourse last time out.
WOULD ANY OF YOU CARRY THE SAME VIEW?
Personally I often get that feeling when I listen to Aidan O'brien or listen to a jockey and ask myself what does he know since he was at another meeting while I was sitting at home watching that race.
.................................................................................................................
Others tips he offers are,
Watch racing on TV with the voice off a view Tom Segal supports as well in another article. They reckon the hype can effect your judgement next time out. He support that thought by saying in the last 6 years at the Cheltenham Festival only about 40% of odds on favourites won or 3 in 8 which would leave you in profit if you were a layer of these.
Finally GOOD NEWS, for all you on a losing streak. " He says You cannot make money gambling without haven made a loss for SEVERAL YEARS. :) There is a apprenticeship, but goes on to say which is why he would recommend it to anyone YOUNG because you know that winning at gambling does not necessary go with being a teenager or in your 20s.
While he admits its a generalisation he goes on to say we become calmer, more patient, and more thoughtful with age"
WHAT DO YOU THINK ON THAT? IF YOU HAD A 18 YEAR OLD SON OR DAUGHTER would YOU INTRODUCE them into gambling with their hard earned money or would you stir them away and let them start themselves when they are older if they so choose? ........Cheers
PS...I see can I find any more in the series tomorrow for anyone who is interested. B-)
For those who don't know the Racing Post is running series on some of the most successful professional punters in the business this week. Most of it does be basic stuff like specialise, watch as much racing as you can, inbetween some nonsense, but they do throw the ODD GEM or TWO in to ponder on.
One gem that does has me pondering was in Tuesday article with a Andy Gibson.
His gem was " SAY WHAT YOU SEE.....IGNORE WHAT YOU HEAR"
He reckons Top Trainers and Jockeys tips are best ignored because in lots of cases,
" He reckons they can't possibly have the time to objectively assess the relative merits of their horses plus the opposition in every race when you think of the demands of training the number of horses and keeping their owners informed".......He used Paul Nicholls column in the Racing Post as an example that he often gets it wrong.
He reckons when he hears a trainer say "I think we are up against it" and he Andy disagrees, that he regards it as GREAT NEWS as he will have a much better chance now of getting a better price.
As he is confident himself in what he saw from the horse on the racecourse last time out.
WOULD ANY OF YOU CARRY THE SAME VIEW?
Personally I often get that feeling when I listen to Aidan O'brien or listen to a jockey and ask myself what does he know since he was at another meeting while I was sitting at home watching that race.
.................................................................................................................
Others tips he offers are,
Watch racing on TV with the voice off a view Tom Segal supports as well in another article. They reckon the hype can effect your judgement next time out. He support that thought by saying in the last 6 years at the Cheltenham Festival only about 40% of odds on favourites won or 3 in 8 which would leave you in profit if you were a layer of these.
Finally GOOD NEWS, for all you on a losing streak. " He says You cannot make money gambling without haven made a loss for SEVERAL YEARS. :) There is a apprenticeship, but goes on to say which is why he would recommend it to anyone YOUNG because you know that winning at gambling does not necessary go with being a teenager or in your 20s.
While he admits its a generalisation he goes on to say we become calmer, more patient, and more thoughtful with age"
WHAT DO YOU THINK ON THAT? IF YOU HAD A 18 YEAR OLD SON OR DAUGHTER would YOU INTRODUCE them into gambling with their hard earned money or would you stir them away and let them start themselves when they are older if they so choose? ........Cheers
PS...I see can I find any more in the series tomorrow for anyone who is interested. B-)
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Thanks Fleecer but your probably right that we should not hi jack Blessingtons thread by going into politics. Maybe on another day we can talk about politics again. Apologies Blessington for going off track.
Galwayman in answer to your question all profits into Paddletoe PLC go in dividends to shareholders in the afforementioned enterprise of which i am the sole and only shareholder. My girlfriend does have some non voting preference shares though and she has expensive tastes in clothes.
Getting back to betting, as i am in a good mood today i will share what i think is the best bet i have seen so far this year with you and anyone else interested.
My prediction this year in gaelic football is that Tyrone will be even better than last year and any bets you can get on involving Stephen O Neill should be taken up with extreme predujice. If he is injury free i cant see any way he can not be Tyrones top scorer by a long way. Its just a matter of getting a wee bit of luck in terms of how many matches Tyrone have to play enroute to wiining the all ireland compared to the other main forwards in the overall top scorer market. Player of the year is my other prediction. You wont get a better run for your money at big odds all year.
Galwayman in answer to your question all profits into Paddletoe PLC go in dividends to shareholders in the afforementioned enterprise of which i am the sole and only shareholder. My girlfriend does have some non voting preference shares though and she has expensive tastes in clothes.
Getting back to betting, as i am in a good mood today i will share what i think is the best bet i have seen so far this year with you and anyone else interested.
My prediction this year in gaelic football is that Tyrone will be even better than last year and any bets you can get on involving Stephen O Neill should be taken up with extreme predujice. If he is injury free i cant see any way he can not be Tyrones top scorer by a long way. Its just a matter of getting a wee bit of luck in terms of how many matches Tyrone have to play enroute to wiining the all ireland compared to the other main forwards in the overall top scorer market. Player of the year is my other prediction. You wont get a better run for your money at big odds all year.
PADDLETOE...Good to have you back you were missed. Anyway I have you listed as the Punter who puts emotion in to his betting and is more interested in winning fair than not winning at all. Would we be right to put that down to living in an age growing up watching Kerry football?
TUMBLES...I wouldn't necessary agree with that view you have about limiting work to x amount of hours. What do they say "Make work your hobby and your hobby your work". If a guy wants to make life his work I say fair play to him once he enjoys it.
FULLBACK...Paddletoe dosen't want to rub it in to us how he turned his betting around its called following Stephen O'Neil and Mickey Harte strategy. 4 years hmnn
SEATTLE...I would stick to your orginal plan of regular wins than chasing the big pot. But saying that I've only just finished the 2nd article. So I have 3 more to go yet to be converted. ;)
PADDLETOE. If you want a sexy title for the dinner table instead of just saying you work with computers a Sports Trader seems to be a popular one, explaining it as you buy and sell bets on your opinions. ie if somebody at the dinner table had a lottery ticket and the 1st number came up you wouln't expect them now to give it to you for a euro or whatever a ticket costs since they are now 1/6 of the way now to winning it and roughly 1/4 to getting a prize ...Cheers
TUMBLES...I wouldn't necessary agree with that view you have about limiting work to x amount of hours. What do they say "Make work your hobby and your hobby your work". If a guy wants to make life his work I say fair play to him once he enjoys it.
FULLBACK...Paddletoe dosen't want to rub it in to us how he turned his betting around its called following Stephen O'Neil and Mickey Harte strategy. 4 years hmnn
SEATTLE...I would stick to your orginal plan of regular wins than chasing the big pot. But saying that I've only just finished the 2nd article. So I have 3 more to go yet to be converted. ;)
PADDLETOE. If you want a sexy title for the dinner table instead of just saying you work with computers a Sports Trader seems to be a popular one, explaining it as you buy and sell bets on your opinions. ie if somebody at the dinner table had a lottery ticket and the 1st number came up you wouln't expect them now to give it to you for a euro or whatever a ticket costs since they are now 1/6 of the way now to winning it and roughly 1/4 to getting a prize ...Cheers
I was standing on the Hill in 86 when Pat Spillane and the Bomber broke my wee heart but in the words of Bob Dylan the times are a changin. I never thought i would ever see the day that Tyrone would start a football year being installed as favourites.
Look forward to doing battle with you again this year. Your money is always good and goes to a good home.
I would not go as far as to say i have too soft a heart when it comes to betting. I would not want it getting around that i am a bit of a soft touch. When it comes to betting with bookies i am extremely ruthless and do not have to battle at all with my moral conscience when opportunity comes knocking. My mum might be ashmed of some of the strokes i have pulled but my da would be disappointed if i did anything else!
If you dont mind i will not hog up any more time on your intersting thread. I will post one more reply later when i have more time. It would be my top tip to pass onto all folk who bet.
Cheers!
Look forward to doing battle with you again this year. Your money is always good and goes to a good home.
I would not go as far as to say i have too soft a heart when it comes to betting. I would not want it getting around that i am a bit of a soft touch. When it comes to betting with bookies i am extremely ruthless and do not have to battle at all with my moral conscience when opportunity comes knocking. My mum might be ashmed of some of the strokes i have pulled but my da would be disappointed if i did anything else!
If you dont mind i will not hog up any more time on your intersting thread. I will post one more reply later when i have more time. It would be my top tip to pass onto all folk who bet.
Cheers!
paddletoe i couldn't have this statement... """As for trying to winning a few quid you should never go looking for a bets but let good bets come to you""...
Its like saying spend no more than 5 minutes looking at each metting. If anyone follows that advice and still makes a profit then their talents are misspent on punting.
Its like saying spend no more than 5 minutes looking at each metting. If anyone follows that advice and still makes a profit then their talents are misspent on punting.
OOPS Paddletoe our threads clashed there.
Right MARTEN JULIAN professional gambler and author of the Dark Horses Annual which has survived now for around 20 odd years.
Okay we agree with him that the key is Patience and Discipline are the Two prime requisities for a punter. If you fancy a horse but decide that the case for it is slighty flawed and don't back it and IT WINS. Rather than resent the fact Congradulate yourself on haven been right walk away and don't feel the pain.
He's supported with this theory by Matt Williams who reckons its equally important to keep a level head either WINNING or losing.
A 2nd point which seems to crop up in these articles as a NO NO is backing horses from a stable thats out of form. Avoid at all costs seems to be the message and watch that Hot and Cold list in the Racing Post
Again thats all pretty basic stuff.
......................................................................................................................
His TIP...Keep a eye on Spencer and Walsh mounts in-running as he calls them quiet riders who mounts often look to be going better than they are. Especially compared to a Fallon style ride where he pushing and shoving from the gate.
Against that Matt William Racing Post says keep away from in-running betting altogether unless your betting in a exchange shop as the picture delay between home viewing and in those shops are just too long. 3 SECONDS I think.
....................................................................................................................
I suppose his GEM is always ENSURE A PROFIT THAN ATTEMPT TO MAXIMISE IT AND RISK LOSING. This is something that has stirred a lot of debate in recent years.
Should you drag maybe your biggest win of the season into negative territory by giving some of it back on backing the only perceived danger when you really think your home and hosed on your bet barring a disaster. I be interested on VIEWS ON THAT ONE.......(Sounds a bit similar t0 your dilemma Seattle Dancer)
...................................................................................................................
COMMENTS WELCOMED ON ANY OF THE ABOVE.......Cheers
Right MARTEN JULIAN professional gambler and author of the Dark Horses Annual which has survived now for around 20 odd years.
Okay we agree with him that the key is Patience and Discipline are the Two prime requisities for a punter. If you fancy a horse but decide that the case for it is slighty flawed and don't back it and IT WINS. Rather than resent the fact Congradulate yourself on haven been right walk away and don't feel the pain.
He's supported with this theory by Matt Williams who reckons its equally important to keep a level head either WINNING or losing.
A 2nd point which seems to crop up in these articles as a NO NO is backing horses from a stable thats out of form. Avoid at all costs seems to be the message and watch that Hot and Cold list in the Racing Post
Again thats all pretty basic stuff.
......................................................................................................................
His TIP...Keep a eye on Spencer and Walsh mounts in-running as he calls them quiet riders who mounts often look to be going better than they are. Especially compared to a Fallon style ride where he pushing and shoving from the gate.
Against that Matt William Racing Post says keep away from in-running betting altogether unless your betting in a exchange shop as the picture delay between home viewing and in those shops are just too long. 3 SECONDS I think.
....................................................................................................................
I suppose his GEM is always ENSURE A PROFIT THAN ATTEMPT TO MAXIMISE IT AND RISK LOSING. This is something that has stirred a lot of debate in recent years.
Should you drag maybe your biggest win of the season into negative territory by giving some of it back on backing the only perceived danger when you really think your home and hosed on your bet barring a disaster. I be interested on VIEWS ON THAT ONE.......(Sounds a bit similar t0 your dilemma Seattle Dancer)
...................................................................................................................
COMMENTS WELCOMED ON ANY OF THE ABOVE.......Cheers
Blessington i thought your thread deserved my best and most serious answer so here goes.
With places like betfair betting has been totally transformed and its never been easier to make money betting if you have the right skills.
You can talk all about terms such as risk v reward, betting percentages, discipline, patience and knowledge but i would say all those things should go without saying.
Its all about how to use those tools to come up with the best net profit. And, i would say the best and perfect method to do that is by understanding two key words - VOLUME and MARGIN.
Unfortunately, such a business model requires you to become one of those cold and balance sheet mind TRADERS. Because thats where the money is nowadays to be made at betting.
Big volume, small margins, virtually no risk will turn a shrewd and knowledgeable punter into a money making machine. You will be a mini Tescos and might feel a little dirty about changing sides and lack excitement but its all about volume and margins. The margins dont need to be very big as long as you get the volume which is a system a regaular punter can never take advantage of because to get on at volume even with bigger margins he has to risk too much in terms of going broke and being out of the ball game.
To use a sporting anology the trader is hitting singles after singles like Geof Boycott while the big hitting gambler is going for sixes like Viv Richards but he is up against 150 mile an hour deliveries and if he misses once the bowler hits.
Volume and margin.
With places like betfair betting has been totally transformed and its never been easier to make money betting if you have the right skills.
You can talk all about terms such as risk v reward, betting percentages, discipline, patience and knowledge but i would say all those things should go without saying.
Its all about how to use those tools to come up with the best net profit. And, i would say the best and perfect method to do that is by understanding two key words - VOLUME and MARGIN.
Unfortunately, such a business model requires you to become one of those cold and balance sheet mind TRADERS. Because thats where the money is nowadays to be made at betting.
Big volume, small margins, virtually no risk will turn a shrewd and knowledgeable punter into a money making machine. You will be a mini Tescos and might feel a little dirty about changing sides and lack excitement but its all about volume and margins. The margins dont need to be very big as long as you get the volume which is a system a regaular punter can never take advantage of because to get on at volume even with bigger margins he has to risk too much in terms of going broke and being out of the ball game.
To use a sporting anology the trader is hitting singles after singles like Geof Boycott while the big hitting gambler is going for sixes like Viv Richards but he is up against 150 mile an hour deliveries and if he misses once the bowler hits.
Volume and margin.
PADDLETOE......Very good. ;)
Sure what hope as a poor Kerry lad against you guys with your Tyrone wisedom whether it with a ball in his hand or betting. :(
PS...Don't go away again on us now......we miss you.....Cheers
Sure what hope as a poor Kerry lad against you guys with your Tyrone wisedom whether it with a ball in his hand or betting. :(
PS...Don't go away again on us now......we miss you.....Cheers
Bless, if you are enjoying it that is one thing but spending 60/70 hours a week means that you are NOT having a 'blanced life'! I am seriously faced with losing current job at the moment and if something does not turn up quickly after that I would attempt to expand on my current small winnings on soccer lays as an experiment for a month or so with some of my redundancy - into a meaningful income.
reading them articles the word luck never mentioned,I dont care who you are and how much time you put into it,you got to hav some luck
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity
I never listen to anyone but myself, the RP tipsters are no better than most of the average Joe punters out there, as for the so called pro punters they are way overrated, take Harry**for instance the big bets that made his fortune are/were pure mug bets but somehow he rode his luck and built up a nest egg.
I use to swear by the form book, and was fairly successful with my wagers, but the last few years because so many have cottoned on to what the exchanges have to offer regarding making money from losers, I may aswell wipe my backside with the form book for all the use it has been to me over the last 3 or 4 years.
I use to swear by the form book, and was fairly successful with my wagers, but the last few years because so many have cottoned on to what the exchanges have to offer regarding making money from losers, I may aswell wipe my backside with the form book for all the use it has been to me over the last 3 or 4 years.
Blessington 23 Jan 13:48
I suppose his GEM is always ENSURE A PROFIT THAN ATTEMPT TO MAXIMISE IT AND RISK LOSING. This is something that has stirred a lot of debate in recent years.
Should you drag maybe your biggest win of the season into negative territory by giving some of it back on backing the only perceived danger when you really think your home and hosed on your bet barring a disaster. I be interested on VIEWS ON THAT ONE.......(Sounds a bit similar t0 your dilemma Seattle Dancer)
{Blessington, you might collate the collective views of these pro punters on the question of chasing the bigger pots through Scoop 6, Jackpot, Placepots, Forecasts etc. The feedback from other Irish Sports contributors to this would be of interest.}
Anyhow, the most basic principle of betting is to turn a profit. Although its inevitable to back losers, every single bet is a potential profit-maker and we often indulge in major post mortems afterwards based on what we could have done differently to achieve a profit on that one single bet.
Apart from my fore-mentioned avoidance of
I suppose his GEM is always ENSURE A PROFIT THAN ATTEMPT TO MAXIMISE IT AND RISK LOSING. This is something that has stirred a lot of debate in recent years.
Should you drag maybe your biggest win of the season into negative territory by giving some of it back on backing the only perceived danger when you really think your home and hosed on your bet barring a disaster. I be interested on VIEWS ON THAT ONE.......(Sounds a bit similar t0 your dilemma Seattle Dancer)
{Blessington, you might collate the collective views of these pro punters on the question of chasing the bigger pots through Scoop 6, Jackpot, Placepots, Forecasts etc. The feedback from other Irish Sports contributors to this would be of interest.}
Anyhow, the most basic principle of betting is to turn a profit. Although its inevitable to back losers, every single bet is a potential profit-maker and we often indulge in major post mortems afterwards based on what we could have done differently to achieve a profit on that one single bet.
Apart from my fore-mentioned avoidance of
Flattery will get you no where Bless. We have caught on to that old indian trick that you Kerry boyos try on with Tyrone every time we meet.
By the way i am not one of them nasty traders. I dont have the expertise in enough sports to put my theories into practise. I might try my hand at it one of these day as i will need a back up plan once Tyrone go into decline in 2020 and i require another money cow!
Hopefully when the gaelic starts again you will be doing your weekly round up so i can still my two pennies worth in and tell ya what you got wrong in your tips......
All the best.
By the way i am not one of them nasty traders. I dont have the expertise in enough sports to put my theories into practise. I might try my hand at it one of these day as i will need a back up plan once Tyrone go into decline in 2020 and i require another money cow!
Hopefully when the gaelic starts again you will be doing your weekly round up so i can still my two pennies worth in and tell ya what you got wrong in your tips......
All the best.
TUMBLES...Sorry to hear about your worries on the job front hopefully it will pass over you.
Yeah if you really wanted to make a go of Betfair you would probably need a 60- 70 hrs week SPREAD at least.
By Spread I mean spread of hrs over the day. I guess a lot of self employed people in any business would tell you the same you mightn't need to be on hand every minute of those 60-70 hrs but the more you are the more succesfull you be.
Whats it ROY said? "Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" but like we have seen with the banks some guys will survive for awhile doing less just riding their luck.
But as these articles say SPECIALISE and its easier as you can enjoy both what your doing then and watching plus you will know then when you will have a break in your calendar to amuse yourself doing something else. ie, not betting on the All weather racing or just Irish racing or just handicaps in horse racing etc
Rugby is another you can take loads of breaks from that because there is so many different types of competitions which different teams try harder in than they might in the big ones. American football is the same its only runs for around 4 months. While Golf tournaments are only 4 days a week. Unfortunely they usually start at 7 am and finish about 1am.
But Betfair could be interesting this year with the recession while some punters will have less money to spends a lot others like you will fancy giving this a go full time not all of them will have the requirements these articles say they need which will give opportunities and profits to the new ones on here who have...
Anyway fingers crossed for your job.........Bless
Yeah if you really wanted to make a go of Betfair you would probably need a 60- 70 hrs week SPREAD at least.
By Spread I mean spread of hrs over the day. I guess a lot of self employed people in any business would tell you the same you mightn't need to be on hand every minute of those 60-70 hrs but the more you are the more succesfull you be.
Whats it ROY said? "Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" but like we have seen with the banks some guys will survive for awhile doing less just riding their luck.
But as these articles say SPECIALISE and its easier as you can enjoy both what your doing then and watching plus you will know then when you will have a break in your calendar to amuse yourself doing something else. ie, not betting on the All weather racing or just Irish racing or just handicaps in horse racing etc
Rugby is another you can take loads of breaks from that because there is so many different types of competitions which different teams try harder in than they might in the big ones. American football is the same its only runs for around 4 months. While Golf tournaments are only 4 days a week. Unfortunely they usually start at 7 am and finish about 1am.
But Betfair could be interesting this year with the recession while some punters will have less money to spends a lot others like you will fancy giving this a go full time not all of them will have the requirements these articles say they need which will give opportunities and profits to the new ones on here who have...
Anyway fingers crossed for your job.........Bless
Yeah Fleecer. I dont think Harry**is a very good example of how easy it is to win a small fortune gambling by betting the way he did. I read an article about him once and if i recall he was stuck for a lot of money early on during a world cup tournament. That he finally turned it around seemed more to do with the fact that for the rest of the tournament he seemed to have a lucky horse shoe stuck up his backside.
Tumbles, sorry to hear about your job being in jeopardy. Both my next door neighbours got laid off just before christmass which is why i get so angry about politicians who idly sit by and watch people like the Royal Bank of Scotland ceo walk away with almost £40 in salary while his greed and mismanagemt of one of the worlds biggest banks partly led to this financial crisis which in turn will lead to millions of people losing their jobs through no fault of their own.
As for trying your hand a bit more on here i would offer you some help and advice if you thought it might help. Might be more of a hindrance than a help though as there are probably others on here who could help you more on any advice you needed. If you wanted any advice just ask. Best of luck and hope things turn out good.
As for trying your hand a bit more on here i would offer you some help and advice if you thought it might help. Might be more of a hindrance than a help though as there are probably others on here who could help you more on any advice you needed. If you wanted any advice just ask. Best of luck and hope things turn out good.
SEATTLE DANCER...The problem I have over insuring your bet against loss like Julian says is you do waste a lot of good profit. :0
While I know they say a guy will never go broke by taking a profit. A thought thats well worth remembering in these more difficult times.
It is draing and leaves a sour taste on your mouth when your good thing does what you always thought it could.
The other downside which I put down to exchanges. Its now very draining watching a match you have a bet on now of any sorts ,because all through it you have to corncerntrate on how the prices in the market are going and decide whether to hold or fold the bet, by suffering the loss or just guaranteeing a profit for yourself.
It does take its toll at times draining you. When in fact if you had just done the bet with a bookmaker you just fell on your sword if you loss, or lick your lips when it won. There was no million other decisions that had to be decided on as the game or race progressed.
But I guess as you say Seattle you can't really write your rules in stone it will depend sometimes on what Gibson say your FEEL for the bet.........Cheers
While I know they say a guy will never go broke by taking a profit. A thought thats well worth remembering in these more difficult times.
It is draing and leaves a sour taste on your mouth when your good thing does what you always thought it could.
The other downside which I put down to exchanges. Its now very draining watching a match you have a bet on now of any sorts ,because all through it you have to corncerntrate on how the prices in the market are going and decide whether to hold or fold the bet, by suffering the loss or just guaranteeing a profit for yourself.
It does take its toll at times draining you. When in fact if you had just done the bet with a bookmaker you just fell on your sword if you loss, or lick your lips when it won. There was no million other decisions that had to be decided on as the game or race progressed.
But I guess as you say Seattle you can't really write your rules in stone it will depend sometimes on what Gibson say your FEEL for the bet.........Cheers
If i do decide to give trading a proper go it will very much go against my natural thinking in not giving back too much equity on bets when i trade out. If your going to expose yourself to high volume trading in bet in play markets like golf, rugby and cricket you will often be forced to trade out as last minute miracles are not uncommon when you are talking cummultively. Its one thing trading big sums of money in a liquid market like rugby when your betting on ticks with lots of time to go and manage your account but another thing when the whole house is riding on the game with seconds to go and you can still get beat.
But i guess a certain small dilution in profit by buying at selling at the wrong odds is a necesary trickle of water you must be prepared to let slip out of the well at the end.
Anyway, thats me for today. If i do decide to give trading a proper go it would be useful if i could ask you Blessington some of the finer mechanics of the trading game. I am happy to back up my own thoughts on market movements and will probably go for a mixture of trading and let it ride bets but by my own admission inexperienced about some of the tricks of the trade!
But i guess a certain small dilution in profit by buying at selling at the wrong odds is a necesary trickle of water you must be prepared to let slip out of the well at the end.
Anyway, thats me for today. If i do decide to give trading a proper go it would be useful if i could ask you Blessington some of the finer mechanics of the trading game. I am happy to back up my own thoughts on market movements and will probably go for a mixture of trading and let it ride bets but by my own admission inexperienced about some of the tricks of the trade!
Thanks Paddle. I have been making money small scale on soccer for few years so reckon I have fair grasp of the ins and outs and that if I do same things with bigger turnover I could increase that, maybe even to scale of decent supplementary income. Of course having to make it pay would impose entirely different set of pressures but if the job goes then I would have a month or two and a few quid to increase stakes and see if I could actually make a go of it. One thing I do know and have learned from Betfair is to completely cut out impulsive chasing bets which were my ruination any previous time I was ahead!
Anyway, if I do go down that route I will certainly be aksing advice of chaps such as yourselves who seem to know a bit.
Anyway, if I do go down that route I will certainly be aksing advice of chaps such as yourselves who seem to know a bit.
On the trading thing, seldom have time to bet in play. Used to automatically trade out for level profit but reckon trading for free lay is better option as the odds have considerably shifted in your favour once your lay goes a goal down. On the other hand, a cursory analysis would suggest that even that is cutting into profits, especailly as I generally lay outsiders playing away from home who very very rarely come back from being a goal down to win. It would of course make huge sense if you've laid an odds on shot to cover your bet.
tumbles get stuck into the general betting forum if you haven't already.Use gubbed for previous useful threads from worthwhile contributors.
Good luck.
:-)
Good luck.
:-)
Luck has no part of a gambler's armoury as it cannot be predicted.When you make a selection on a horse to win,or lose on here,you must do so with as much info as possible.You cannot select anything on the basis of luck.Of course ,from time to time,it will play a huge part,jockey falling off last week with the race at its mercy for example,but there was no way you could foresee that when making your selection.
Luck,may or may not, even out but it shouldn't be given a second thought when selecting a bet (in-running punters are different).
Luck,may or may not, even out but it shouldn't be given a second thought when selecting a bet (in-running punters are different).
Blessington - love these threads, will read it hrough on sunday evening
Paddletoe - I work in computers but I'm too embarrassed to mention it to people so I tell them I'm a professinal gambler.
Paddletoe - I work in computers but I'm too embarrassed to mention it to people so I tell them I'm a professinal gambler.
50 years ago there were about 10 successful professional punters in these islands who made a good living from betting on a regular basis . They were shrewd , well informed , wise and patient . Nowadays there are hundreds or more professional punters ( or traders) who make a good living from betting . The difference now is the ability to lay . In the past a shrewd punter could snap up the good odds , but unless he had the facility with a bookie ( or was a bookie ) he could only turn that into profit if the selection won . Anyone can make a profit ( or a loss ) trading . Increasingly the bookies close winning accounts , particularly if there is any arbing trend ; the bookies are in the process of targetting losing punters as against winning punters , so if you are getting special offers from the bookies you are almost certainly a loser ( or live in the Middle East ) . Harry**put it spot on in recent interviews , the bookies are just traders like everyone else , and I cant understand why they they get so much publicity when they wont lay anything worthwhile unless its dead meat or under the available exchange odds .
Tumbles, its one thing being able to earn a profit from betting when its a hobby or a small supplemenatary income. But another thing altogether when you bet full time with no other sourse of income and your profits are the only thing between you and the rent man!
Unless you have enough financial back up to cover a run of losses it will normally be goodnight vienna as you will end up playing with scared money and thats no recipe for playing the betting game.
Even if you can win at betting you have to learn to adapt to a new way of life and thinking as with any line of work it has its good points and bad points - many of which overlap. Sure, you can get out of bed, turn on the pc and be your own boss which means you can play the modern day betting game in your underpants if you want. Its 2.30am and after a night out i will be on my computer for most of the night trying to grind a living - Tomorrow i will be having dinner when most people are having their breakfast! Its not a life for everyone - no matter if you can make money or not. Sometimes i come on to the forum just to actually chat to a real live person as i dont operate in a traditional working environment where interaction is a possible.
As for the money side of things. Its not the hardest thing in the world to make money betting if you have reasonable expectaions to match your abilities. However, making money through gambling is not a healthy existance unless you have a good balance in your life to go along with it. If your life becomes all about just making money you might as well be betting in matessers!
As for the right temperment not everybody has that when it comes to betting. Most people are naturally happy when they win money but the downside is that when they lose their emotions and personality changes in a negative way. You really have to change your mindset from what would be a natural reaction to such things. Because if you dont and there are other people around you they will suffer the emotional downsides in your personailty and thats not a good or fair thing.
Unless you have enough financial back up to cover a run of losses it will normally be goodnight vienna as you will end up playing with scared money and thats no recipe for playing the betting game.
Even if you can win at betting you have to learn to adapt to a new way of life and thinking as with any line of work it has its good points and bad points - many of which overlap. Sure, you can get out of bed, turn on the pc and be your own boss which means you can play the modern day betting game in your underpants if you want. Its 2.30am and after a night out i will be on my computer for most of the night trying to grind a living - Tomorrow i will be having dinner when most people are having their breakfast! Its not a life for everyone - no matter if you can make money or not. Sometimes i come on to the forum just to actually chat to a real live person as i dont operate in a traditional working environment where interaction is a possible.
As for the money side of things. Its not the hardest thing in the world to make money betting if you have reasonable expectaions to match your abilities. However, making money through gambling is not a healthy existance unless you have a good balance in your life to go along with it. If your life becomes all about just making money you might as well be betting in matessers!
As for the right temperment not everybody has that when it comes to betting. Most people are naturally happy when they win money but the downside is that when they lose their emotions and personality changes in a negative way. You really have to change your mindset from what would be a natural reaction to such things. Because if you dont and there are other people around you they will suffer the emotional downsides in your personailty and thats not a good or fair thing.
Tumbles, its one thing being able to earn a profit from betting when its a hobby or a small supplemenatary income. But another thing altogether when you bet full time with no other sourse of income and your profits are the only thing between you and the rent man!
Unless you have enough financial back up to cover a run of losses it will normally be goodnight vienna as you will end up playing with scared money and thats no recipe for playing the betting game.
Even if you can win at betting you have to learn to adapt to a new way of life and thinking as with any line of work it has its good points and bad points - many of which overlap. Sure, you can get out of bed, turn on the pc and be your own boss which means you can play the modern day betting game in your underpants if you want. Its 2.30am and after a night out i will be on my computer for most of the night trying to grind a living - Tomorrow i will be having dinner when most people are having their breakfast! Its not a life for everyone - no matter if you can make money or not. Sometimes i come on to the forum just to actually chat to a real live person as i dont operate in a traditional working environment where interaction is a possible.
As for the money side of things. Its not the hardest thing in the world to make money betting if you have reasonable expectaions to match your abilities. However, making money through gambling is not a healthy existance unless you have a good balance in your life to go along with it. If your life becomes all about just making money you might as well be betting in matessers!
As for the right temperment not everybody has that when it comes to betting. Most people are naturally happy when they win money but the downside is that when they lose their emotions and personality changes in a negative way. You really have to change your mindset from what would be a natural reaction to such things. Because if you dont and there are other people around you they will suffer the emotional downsides in your personailty and thats not a good or fair thing.
Unless you have enough financial back up to cover a run of losses it will normally be goodnight vienna as you will end up playing with scared money and thats no recipe for playing the betting game.
Even if you can win at betting you have to learn to adapt to a new way of life and thinking as with any line of work it has its good points and bad points - many of which overlap. Sure, you can get out of bed, turn on the pc and be your own boss which means you can play the modern day betting game in your underpants if you want. Its 2.30am and after a night out i will be on my computer for most of the night trying to grind a living - Tomorrow i will be having dinner when most people are having their breakfast! Its not a life for everyone - no matter if you can make money or not. Sometimes i come on to the forum just to actually chat to a real live person as i dont operate in a traditional working environment where interaction is a possible.
As for the money side of things. Its not the hardest thing in the world to make money betting if you have reasonable expectaions to match your abilities. However, making money through gambling is not a healthy existance unless you have a good balance in your life to go along with it. If your life becomes all about just making money you might as well be betting in matessers!
As for the right temperment not everybody has that when it comes to betting. Most people are naturally happy when they win money but the downside is that when they lose their emotions and personality changes in a negative way. You really have to change your mindset from what would be a natural reaction to such things. Because if you dont and there are other people around you they will suffer the emotional downsides in your personailty and thats not a good or fair thing.
Tumbles, its one thing being able to earn a profit from betting when its a hobby or a small supplemenatary income. But another thing altogether when you bet full time with no other sourse of income and your profits are the only thing between you and the rent man!
Unless you have enough financial back up to cover a run of losses it will normally be goodnight vienna as you will end up playing with scared money and thats no recipe for playing the betting game.
Even if you can win at betting you have to learn to adapt to a new way of life and thinking as with any line of work it has its good points and bad points - many of which overlap. Sure, you can get out of bed, turn on the pc and be your own boss which means you can play the modern day betting game in your underpants if you want. Its 2.30am and after a night out i will be on my computer for most of the night trying to grind a living - Tomorrow i will be having dinner when most people are having their breakfast! Its not a life for everyone - no matter if you can make money or not. Sometimes i come on to the forum just to actually chat to a real live person as i dont operate in a traditional working environment where interaction is a possible.
As for the money side of things. Its not the hardest thing in the world to make money betting if you have reasonable expectaions to match your abilities. However, making money through gambling is not a healthy existance unless you have a good balance in your life to go along with it. If your life becomes all about just making money you might as well be betting in matessers!
As for the right temperment not everybody has that when it comes to betting. Most people are naturally happy when they win money but the downside is that when they lose their emotions and personality changes in a negative way. You really have to change your mindset from what would be a natural reaction to such things. Because if you dont and there are other people around you they will suffer the emotional downsides in your personailty and thats not a good or fair thing.
Unless you have enough financial back up to cover a run of losses it will normally be goodnight vienna as you will end up playing with scared money and thats no recipe for playing the betting game.
Even if you can win at betting you have to learn to adapt to a new way of life and thinking as with any line of work it has its good points and bad points - many of which overlap. Sure, you can get out of bed, turn on the pc and be your own boss which means you can play the modern day betting game in your underpants if you want. Its 2.30am and after a night out i will be on my computer for most of the night trying to grind a living - Tomorrow i will be having dinner when most people are having their breakfast! Its not a life for everyone - no matter if you can make money or not. Sometimes i come on to the forum just to actually chat to a real live person as i dont operate in a traditional working environment where interaction is a possible.
As for the money side of things. Its not the hardest thing in the world to make money betting if you have reasonable expectaions to match your abilities. However, making money through gambling is not a healthy existance unless you have a good balance in your life to go along with it. If your life becomes all about just making money you might as well be betting in matessers!
As for the right temperment not everybody has that when it comes to betting. Most people are naturally happy when they win money but the downside is that when they lose their emotions and personality changes in a negative way. You really have to change your mindset from what would be a natural reaction to such things. Because if you dont and there are other people around you they will suffer the emotional downsides in your personailty and thats not a good or fair thing.
sorry about those repetitive posts. Obviously gremlins at work.
Betting for a living is nirvana imo compared to working for somebody else or some corporation. You are your own boss, work flexible hours, get rewarded more or less immediately if you get it right and your ass is kicked if you get it wrong. I like that in a job,profession,vocation. You get out of it what you put into it. Knowledge of the form book is essential, however its your interpretaion of that form that will determine whether you survive or not. Each day is different and a challenge if youre playing. You decide when to work and when to rest and I agree that the latter is a must. If working from home then you have a fine work/life balance. Kids can be brought/collected from school, helped with homework, and youre there for them, if not mentally at times then physically anyway!!. Lots of rest at this time of year if betting on Irish racing only. Going gets tough when the winners dry up but you learn to get used to the worst and the good days make those bad ones distant memories. As has been said its a way of life that suits some and not others. With racing on TV and betting on line the time devoted to the role is far less than if travelling the length and breadth of the country going racing so the hours devoted to the pursuit of winners would be considered acceptable to most. The exchange(singular) has dramatically increased the chances of making a few quid betting long term. Just a few scattered thoughts on rising.
CALINI...Everyone is effected by Premiun Charges on Betfair one way or the other if costs rise 20% for some its logical that reflects on the price they sell or buy there wares at.
But maybe thats best left for another day. ;)
But maybe thats best left for another day. ;)
Interesting what you say about emotions Paddletoe. I used to get very worked up over bets, especially when backing horses which I seldom if ever do now and never on here. I almost exclusively lay soccer and because I have little actual interest in it as a sport (as in watching it or who wins stuff!) I find it helps me making decisions, especially in matches involving big teams where there is a lot of fan money being bet. The opposite of that would be that I often misjudge GAA matches because I get caught up in them. Hence I very rarely bet on GAA unless something really looks like value.
Good point again about balanced life. After all you only make money doing anything in order to enjoy life however modestly. So I would be fairly confident of not becoming some sort of Howard Hughes figure! Anyway, hopefully I will not actually be stuck at home soon putting it to the test and will continue on a small scale. Starting now with a sore head looking at FA Cup matches.
Good point again about balanced life. After all you only make money doing anything in order to enjoy life however modestly. So I would be fairly confident of not becoming some sort of Howard Hughes figure! Anyway, hopefully I will not actually be stuck at home soon putting it to the test and will continue on a small scale. Starting now with a sore head looking at FA Cup matches.
OKAY.....Lets look at what Dave Nevison has to say. Nevison is a well known professional punter who writes books as well as been a presenter on RUK and succesful owner. What was the name of that group 1 Two year old winner he had two years ago with Best of the big York all age sprint? It escapes me. Anyway He a guy who you either love or hate it would be rare to meet somebody who thinks he's just alright. ......I like him. :^0
The attitudes he thinks you need are RESILIENCE, and INNER STRENGTH, to help you through the bad times as the good times will look after themselves. He adds to this by touching on your emotional side where he reckons you can be taken off on the wrong path purely because you would like to see something win than backing it on its merit.....(Thats all pretty basic)
His strategy he says is rather than pick his fancy first he draws up daily tissue prices for every race and any 15% shorter than what the bookies are offering he gets on. Thats his 2/1 against the bookies 5/2. He never bets on something shorter than his tissue. That throws up a old chestnut that I not a 100% with VALUE.
He goes on to clarify this a bit by adding he does feel he has a profound knowledge of the form book and understanding of the betting market. So is happy to base 90% of his betting on this strategy. .....(WOW) :0
I have to admit I'm not a lover of the VALUE concept in betting by all means take the best price available but if you really fancy it and expect it to win surely anything above 1.01 is VALUE once it won and that 100/1 on the 2nd was robbery. Okay I do a lot of sports betting so it might be different from horse racing value.
One thing that our KELLY might have something to say on is he thinks " Being a professional punter is MORE difficult NOW than it was 15 years ago when he started. He blames this on the sheer volume of racing". (Yeah I suppose he has a point there) To counteract this he falls back on a line we have been hearing all day this week SPECIALISE otherwise he says you be swamped. His buddy on the other page Gerald Delamere reckons Handicaps especially Sprints ones are good for him to specialise.
Going deeper into why he thinks its harder now been a professional than in the past. He reckons the market now is more informed now than in the past thanks to Betfair and its pool of collective brain power betting on it which makes it prudent to think twice about what its telling you. Against that Delamere reckons a key for him is KEEP YOUR NERVE when betting. ( So that kind of nulifys itself for me)
But probably his GEM for me is spotting EMBRYONIC TALENT. I've done quite well in the past with this on the golf. Maybe I was lucky to start beting on it in a golden era. But Woods, Duval, Furyk and Stricker were all just new kids on the block at that time which I hooked up with for 72 hole match bets and tournaments over the years which gave me a lot of pleasure and fun. While I was also lucky to get with Federer in the tennis and his 1st Wimbledon win. They all turned into prolific winners for me.
Anyway back to Nevison he said spotting talent like the Rhys Flint from the start can pay even though he reckons the likes of Flint mounts now can get overbet in conditional races. (But I suppose trainers too. You wouldn't have done too bad now if you had been following AJ Martin in big handicaps over the years.)
As for his TIP to avoid he says Ante Post racing on the flat. He reckons too many of the top horses are owned by a few hands. I suppose he means Coolmore and the Arabs. So its impossible for us to know which of them are going to run for them.
Okay to sum up. NEVISON reckons KNOWLEDGE, DISCIPLINE, the abilty to recognise VALUE? and SPECIALISATION are the keys for him.
COMMENTS WELCOMED, especially on the concept of VALUE.........Cheers Bless
The attitudes he thinks you need are RESILIENCE, and INNER STRENGTH, to help you through the bad times as the good times will look after themselves. He adds to this by touching on your emotional side where he reckons you can be taken off on the wrong path purely because you would like to see something win than backing it on its merit.....(Thats all pretty basic)
His strategy he says is rather than pick his fancy first he draws up daily tissue prices for every race and any 15% shorter than what the bookies are offering he gets on. Thats his 2/1 against the bookies 5/2. He never bets on something shorter than his tissue. That throws up a old chestnut that I not a 100% with VALUE.
He goes on to clarify this a bit by adding he does feel he has a profound knowledge of the form book and understanding of the betting market. So is happy to base 90% of his betting on this strategy. .....(WOW) :0
I have to admit I'm not a lover of the VALUE concept in betting by all means take the best price available but if you really fancy it and expect it to win surely anything above 1.01 is VALUE once it won and that 100/1 on the 2nd was robbery. Okay I do a lot of sports betting so it might be different from horse racing value.
One thing that our KELLY might have something to say on is he thinks " Being a professional punter is MORE difficult NOW than it was 15 years ago when he started. He blames this on the sheer volume of racing". (Yeah I suppose he has a point there) To counteract this he falls back on a line we have been hearing all day this week SPECIALISE otherwise he says you be swamped. His buddy on the other page Gerald Delamere reckons Handicaps especially Sprints ones are good for him to specialise.
Going deeper into why he thinks its harder now been a professional than in the past. He reckons the market now is more informed now than in the past thanks to Betfair and its pool of collective brain power betting on it which makes it prudent to think twice about what its telling you. Against that Delamere reckons a key for him is KEEP YOUR NERVE when betting. ( So that kind of nulifys itself for me)
But probably his GEM for me is spotting EMBRYONIC TALENT. I've done quite well in the past with this on the golf. Maybe I was lucky to start beting on it in a golden era. But Woods, Duval, Furyk and Stricker were all just new kids on the block at that time which I hooked up with for 72 hole match bets and tournaments over the years which gave me a lot of pleasure and fun. While I was also lucky to get with Federer in the tennis and his 1st Wimbledon win. They all turned into prolific winners for me.
Anyway back to Nevison he said spotting talent like the Rhys Flint from the start can pay even though he reckons the likes of Flint mounts now can get overbet in conditional races. (But I suppose trainers too. You wouldn't have done too bad now if you had been following AJ Martin in big handicaps over the years.)
As for his TIP to avoid he says Ante Post racing on the flat. He reckons too many of the top horses are owned by a few hands. I suppose he means Coolmore and the Arabs. So its impossible for us to know which of them are going to run for them.
Okay to sum up. NEVISON reckons KNOWLEDGE, DISCIPLINE, the abilty to recognise VALUE? and SPECIALISATION are the keys for him.
COMMENTS WELCOMED, especially on the concept of VALUE.........Cheers Bless
OKAY.....Lets look at what Dave Nevison has to say. Nevison is a well known professional punter who writes books as well as been a presenter on RUK and succesful owner. What was the name of that group 1 Two year old winner he had two years ago with Best of the big York all age sprint? It escapes me. Anyway He a guy who you either love or hate it would be rare to meet somebody who thinks he's just alright. ......I like him. :^0
The attitudes he thinks you need are RESILIENCE, and INNER STRENGTH, to help you through the bad times as the good times will look after themselves. He adds to this by touching on your emotional side where he reckons you can be taken off on the wrong path purely because you would like to see something win than backing it on its merit.....(Thats all pretty basic)
His strategy he says is rather than pick his fancy first he draws up daily tissue prices for every race and any 15% shorter than what the bookies are offering he gets on. Thats his 2/1 against the bookies 5/2. He never bets on something shorter than his tissue. That throws up a old chestnut that I not a 100% with VALUE.
He goes on to clarify this a bit by adding he does feel he has a profound knowledge of the form book and understanding of the betting market. So is happy to base 90% of his betting on this strategy. .....(WOW) :0
I have to admit I'm not a lover of the VALUE concept in betting by all means take the best price available but if you really fancy it and expect it to win surely anything above 1.01 is VALUE once it won and that 100/1 on the 2nd was robbery. Okay I do a lot of sports betting so it might be different from horse racing value.
One thing that our KELLY might have something to say on is he thinks " Being a professional punter is MORE difficult NOW than it was 15 years ago when he started. He blames this on the sheer volume of racing". (Yeah I suppose he has a point there) To counteract this he falls back on a line we have been hearing all day this week SPECIALISE otherwise he says you be swamped. His buddy on the other page Gerald Delamere reckons Handicaps especially Sprints ones are good for him to specialise.
Going deeper into why he thinks its harder now been a professional than in the past. He reckons the market now is more informed now than in the past thanks to Betfair and its pool of collective brain power betting on it which makes it prudent to think twice about what its telling you. Against that Delamere reckons a key for him is KEEP YOUR NERVE when betting. ( So that kind of nulifys itself for me)
But probably his GEM for me is spotting EMBRYONIC TALENT. I've done quite well in the past with this on the golf. Maybe I was lucky to start beting on it in a golden era. But Woods, Duval, Furyk and Stricker were all just new kids on the block at that time which I hooked up with for 72 hole match bets and tournaments over the years which gave me a lot of pleasure and fun. While I was also lucky to get with Federer in the tennis and his 1st Wimbledon win. They all turned into prolific winners for me.
Anyway back to Nevison he said spotting talent like the Rhys Flint from the start can pay even though he reckons the likes of Flint mounts now can get overbet in conditional races. (But I suppose trainers too. You wouldn't have done too bad now if you had been following AJ Martin in big handicaps over the years.)
As for his TIP to avoid he says Ante Post racing on the flat. He reckons too many of the top horses are owned by a few hands. I suppose he means Coolmore and the Arabs. So its impossible for us to know which of them are going to run for them.
Okay to sum up. NEVISON reckons KNOWLEDGE, DISCIPLINE, the abilty to recognise VALUE? and SPECIALISATION are the keys for him.
COMMENTS WELCOMED, especially on the concept of VALUE.........Cheers Bless
The attitudes he thinks you need are RESILIENCE, and INNER STRENGTH, to help you through the bad times as the good times will look after themselves. He adds to this by touching on your emotional side where he reckons you can be taken off on the wrong path purely because you would like to see something win than backing it on its merit.....(Thats all pretty basic)
His strategy he says is rather than pick his fancy first he draws up daily tissue prices for every race and any 15% shorter than what the bookies are offering he gets on. Thats his 2/1 against the bookies 5/2. He never bets on something shorter than his tissue. That throws up a old chestnut that I not a 100% with VALUE.
He goes on to clarify this a bit by adding he does feel he has a profound knowledge of the form book and understanding of the betting market. So is happy to base 90% of his betting on this strategy. .....(WOW) :0
I have to admit I'm not a lover of the VALUE concept in betting by all means take the best price available but if you really fancy it and expect it to win surely anything above 1.01 is VALUE once it won and that 100/1 on the 2nd was robbery. Okay I do a lot of sports betting so it might be different from horse racing value.
One thing that our KELLY might have something to say on is he thinks " Being a professional punter is MORE difficult NOW than it was 15 years ago when he started. He blames this on the sheer volume of racing". (Yeah I suppose he has a point there) To counteract this he falls back on a line we have been hearing all day this week SPECIALISE otherwise he says you be swamped. His buddy on the other page Gerald Delamere reckons Handicaps especially Sprints ones are good for him to specialise.
Going deeper into why he thinks its harder now been a professional than in the past. He reckons the market now is more informed now than in the past thanks to Betfair and its pool of collective brain power betting on it which makes it prudent to think twice about what its telling you. Against that Delamere reckons a key for him is KEEP YOUR NERVE when betting. ( So that kind of nulifys itself for me)
But probably his GEM for me is spotting EMBRYONIC TALENT. I've done quite well in the past with this on the golf. Maybe I was lucky to start beting on it in a golden era. But Woods, Duval, Furyk and Stricker were all just new kids on the block at that time which I hooked up with for 72 hole match bets and tournaments over the years which gave me a lot of pleasure and fun. While I was also lucky to get with Federer in the tennis and his 1st Wimbledon win. They all turned into prolific winners for me.
Anyway back to Nevison he said spotting talent like the Rhys Flint from the start can pay even though he reckons the likes of Flint mounts now can get overbet in conditional races. (But I suppose trainers too. You wouldn't have done too bad now if you had been following AJ Martin in big handicaps over the years.)
As for his TIP to avoid he says Ante Post racing on the flat. He reckons too many of the top horses are owned by a few hands. I suppose he means Coolmore and the Arabs. So its impossible for us to know which of them are going to run for them.
Okay to sum up. NEVISON reckons KNOWLEDGE, DISCIPLINE, the abilty to recognise VALUE? and SPECIALISATION are the keys for him.
COMMENTS WELCOMED, especially on the concept of VALUE.........Cheers Bless
I like Nevison as a pundit and a bloke, he seems like a genuinely good guy and i wish him all the best BUT i find his approach hard to fathom.
Anyone who has as many bets as he does will surely end up potless? I dont think it's possible to have a view strong enough to warrant a bet, if you are a professional punter and depend on winning to eat.
Reading through a typical day for him it tends to involve betting in every race at whatever meeting he attends (at least one bet), multiple spread bets spread bets on things like favourites and SPs - which he says he is practically unbeatable at, yet which i think offer the punter pretty poor value over time with the size of the spread/margin; tote bets where, fair enough, he might be getting value with dead money in the pools but which nonetheless seem to be nothing short of disaterous for him as a pro-punter.
I hear now that he is concentrating less on punting and more on the bloodstock side oif things, where he has had great success with square eddie and flashmans papers in particular. I enjoyed both of his books but I must say, I find his approach to betting to be at odds with what I would call a 'professional'.
Anyone who has as many bets as he does will surely end up potless? I dont think it's possible to have a view strong enough to warrant a bet, if you are a professional punter and depend on winning to eat.
Reading through a typical day for him it tends to involve betting in every race at whatever meeting he attends (at least one bet), multiple spread bets spread bets on things like favourites and SPs - which he says he is practically unbeatable at, yet which i think offer the punter pretty poor value over time with the size of the spread/margin; tote bets where, fair enough, he might be getting value with dead money in the pools but which nonetheless seem to be nothing short of disaterous for him as a pro-punter.
I hear now that he is concentrating less on punting and more on the bloodstock side oif things, where he has had great success with square eddie and flashmans papers in particular. I enjoyed both of his books but I must say, I find his approach to betting to be at odds with what I would call a 'professional'.
Heminway...Yeah thats true.
He also touched on interesting point which I forgot to put in.
The LIFE SPAN of a professional gambler. Something that often appears on the other forums. Some on Betfair reckons 5 - 6 years is the average for the full timer :0 Hard to say but there is not too many on the forum going back to 2000.
He reckons now on 15 years himself its probably coming to an end for him. Personally I think he's looking for a job with the T0te. :^0
But it does seem to take its toll eventually. Whether thats because the money is made or better things to do with their time.
Or just like Nevison says "the recent golden era for punters has passed eroded by a sophisticated highy responsive market that makes it difficult for even knowledgeable professional to maintain satisfactory profit margins."
Who know?........Cheers
He also touched on interesting point which I forgot to put in.
The LIFE SPAN of a professional gambler. Something that often appears on the other forums. Some on Betfair reckons 5 - 6 years is the average for the full timer :0 Hard to say but there is not too many on the forum going back to 2000.
He reckons now on 15 years himself its probably coming to an end for him. Personally I think he's looking for a job with the T0te. :^0
But it does seem to take its toll eventually. Whether thats because the money is made or better things to do with their time.
Or just like Nevison says "the recent golden era for punters has passed eroded by a sophisticated highy responsive market that makes it difficult for even knowledgeable professional to maintain satisfactory profit margins."
Who know?........Cheers
Yeah - one other thing he said recently which i would question is his belief that if a horse 'goes through' his own tissue price, in a positive way he should have more on. His rationale is that if the collective brains on Betfair believe a horse should be priced shorter than he does and that horse goes through his price positively, he should take heed and bet more.
It looks to me like his edges are fast vanishing and this latest method just doesn't tally for me.
Then again, as you say, he has made it pay for 15 years and in fairness, that's a pretty fantastic thing to be able to say, particularly as you get the impression he lives life to the full!
It looks to me like his edges are fast vanishing and this latest method just doesn't tally for me.
Then again, as you say, he has made it pay for 15 years and in fairness, that's a pretty fantastic thing to be able to say, particularly as you get the impression he lives life to the full!
The message I would give to people if you are serious about betting for a living is :
GET YOUR FINANCIAL HOUSE IN ORDER FIRST
Not a lot of point making 2000 a month on here if 500 of it is going on interest for car loans/credit card/etc.
I have a reasonable job and considered turning pro 12 months ago but didn't.
But in preparation I got my finances sorted. Sold some shares(not enough), paid off the mortgage, bought a good second hand car for cash.
I've a backup bank earning a good interest rate if things go pear shaped.
The most important aspect was that the missus knew I wasn't gambing with the household budget and it gave her piece of mind.
The days of betting online with bookies is quickly going, the traders are looking at your bets, there isn't a mug bet among them, and you're only tipping them off.
Yes I know, aye aye Eddie Hobbs is in.
GET YOUR FINANCIAL HOUSE IN ORDER FIRST
Not a lot of point making 2000 a month on here if 500 of it is going on interest for car loans/credit card/etc.
I have a reasonable job and considered turning pro 12 months ago but didn't.
But in preparation I got my finances sorted. Sold some shares(not enough), paid off the mortgage, bought a good second hand car for cash.
I've a backup bank earning a good interest rate if things go pear shaped.
The most important aspect was that the missus knew I wasn't gambing with the household budget and it gave her piece of mind.
The days of betting online with bookies is quickly going, the traders are looking at your bets, there isn't a mug bet among them, and you're only tipping them off.
Yes I know, aye aye Eddie Hobbs is in.
Bless its not about profitable punting. Its profitable trading if you ask me! Overall disappointed with the 5 articles this week. Nothing exciting came up. I think as Hemingway mentioned Nevisons tissue edge is fast eroding but he was bitterly unlucky with that £200,000 during the week!!
On the subject of age, a few factors :
1) Education is geared towards right or wrong answers, to say gambling is the same would be too simplistic and dangerous to the pocket.
2) How can a young person tell you that they make money on Novice Hurdles but not on 5f handicaps?
It's more a case of how quickly they pick up their strengths and weaknesses.
3) Value - kids can be good at maths, yet poor at managing money.
I'd want to see their attitude to their mobile phone before showing them the possibilities of oddschecker.
1) Education is geared towards right or wrong answers, to say gambling is the same would be too simplistic and dangerous to the pocket.
2) How can a young person tell you that they make money on Novice Hurdles but not on 5f handicaps?
It's more a case of how quickly they pick up their strengths and weaknesses.
3) Value - kids can be good at maths, yet poor at managing money.
I'd want to see their attitude to their mobile phone before showing them the possibilities of oddschecker.
A major factor in betting successfully is knowing the races / horses to bet on ( assuming most people who are successful punters / traders bet mainly on horse racing ) . Some of the bookies put up "races to avoid / to be careful with accepting bets " . Generally speaking those are the races to concentrate on . And generally those are not 18 runner handicap sprints which I wouldn't watch if it was in my back garden . In the old days of having to bet without the benefit of exchanges , the most successful punter I knew bet mainly on second and third quotes in 8 runner plus conditions/ maiden / level weight races , each way trebles and quads , was not even trying to pick winners , just guaranteed placers . Occasionally he clicked winners too , but generally the place money accumulated up to generate regular profit . A lot of bookies would not take his bets , sure sign that he was a winning punter .
HEMINWAY..Yeah I think like the banks some of these guys inspite of there Aston Martins in the driveway had flawed business models but a bit of good luck at the right times pulled them through.
But no new there we all need some good luck in our lives just some get more than others.
But one message that is going through time and time again and that is Specalise. Aparting from spotting the demise of Arsenal a bit earlier than most a few years back do you have any area of betting you specialise in?
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CUPWINK. To a degree I agree about short term unsecured loans. But I wouldn't go as far as clearing a mortage with any redunancy money or anything like that. As getting your house financially in order when it comes to mortages depends a lot on circumstances. Maybe it has changed now, but a mortage was always the cheapest way to borrow money, so like a goverment if you can see a opportunity now or in the future your better holding on to your cash than clearing off your mortage completely. At the moment mortage interest rates are at there lowest and in the present economic cycle where CASH is KING it might be best to hold on to it as its unlikely you get it back too easy with the credit crisis if you do need the cash again.
But saying that if you feel uncomforable with your present repayements and would feel more secure with them lower or your somebody who lacks money management skills and just blow all you got then you might need to think again about leaving cash free if you have no plan for it for the future...........EDDIE how did I do? :^0
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MORDIN..I'm surprised at hearing your a ARB fan. I would have put you down to a grafter like myself relying on your research and study of the form book. :( Hey a few of the boys backing in euro might have caught up with you now with the sterling crisis.
Plus what do you think of the point raised earlier in the thread that a professional punter carrys a best before date for the job?
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CUPWINK...Your 2nd thread. Its a interesting point what age is the right age to start. I started at 10 and used to buy the Racing Paper on the way to school with my dinner money. I won enough to buy a new car cash at 18 then I lost the plot for finding winner or maybe just gave up the study of the formbook for that period. What I recommend about starting young was you learned how to form opinions and make your own decisions something I see a lot of my friends still seem to struggle with plus when I did move into my losing period in those few years I didn't really have much cash to lose as I was only a student unlike a guy who might be in his 20s now and earning good money. So I would have mixed views on what age would be the right age to start. I think it depends more on the guys personality than his age...
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KELLY....Like you I would be more of a condition race fan where at Championship or Group Class down to maiden races and 2 year old races. But it seems a bit of a NO NO for these boys.
The 18 runner Spring Handicap and the likes is getting a lot of recommendations between draw bias which can rule out half the field and most of these horses are usually well exposed unlike maidens or some group horses.....The times they are changing according to these professional punters. :^0
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PS....We have a look at PETER THOMAS, Thursday Betting Masterclass later. IMO? In spite of what one or two of you have to say he does have the odd Gem and debating point. But we see.....Cheers
But no new there we all need some good luck in our lives just some get more than others.
But one message that is going through time and time again and that is Specalise. Aparting from spotting the demise of Arsenal a bit earlier than most a few years back do you have any area of betting you specialise in?
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CUPWINK. To a degree I agree about short term unsecured loans. But I wouldn't go as far as clearing a mortage with any redunancy money or anything like that. As getting your house financially in order when it comes to mortages depends a lot on circumstances. Maybe it has changed now, but a mortage was always the cheapest way to borrow money, so like a goverment if you can see a opportunity now or in the future your better holding on to your cash than clearing off your mortage completely. At the moment mortage interest rates are at there lowest and in the present economic cycle where CASH is KING it might be best to hold on to it as its unlikely you get it back too easy with the credit crisis if you do need the cash again.
But saying that if you feel uncomforable with your present repayements and would feel more secure with them lower or your somebody who lacks money management skills and just blow all you got then you might need to think again about leaving cash free if you have no plan for it for the future...........EDDIE how did I do? :^0
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MORDIN..I'm surprised at hearing your a ARB fan. I would have put you down to a grafter like myself relying on your research and study of the form book. :( Hey a few of the boys backing in euro might have caught up with you now with the sterling crisis.
Plus what do you think of the point raised earlier in the thread that a professional punter carrys a best before date for the job?
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CUPWINK...Your 2nd thread. Its a interesting point what age is the right age to start. I started at 10 and used to buy the Racing Paper on the way to school with my dinner money. I won enough to buy a new car cash at 18 then I lost the plot for finding winner or maybe just gave up the study of the formbook for that period. What I recommend about starting young was you learned how to form opinions and make your own decisions something I see a lot of my friends still seem to struggle with plus when I did move into my losing period in those few years I didn't really have much cash to lose as I was only a student unlike a guy who might be in his 20s now and earning good money. So I would have mixed views on what age would be the right age to start. I think it depends more on the guys personality than his age...
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KELLY....Like you I would be more of a condition race fan where at Championship or Group Class down to maiden races and 2 year old races. But it seems a bit of a NO NO for these boys.
The 18 runner Spring Handicap and the likes is getting a lot of recommendations between draw bias which can rule out half the field and most of these horses are usually well exposed unlike maidens or some group horses.....The times they are changing according to these professional punters. :^0
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PS....We have a look at PETER THOMAS, Thursday Betting Masterclass later. IMO? In spite of what one or two of you have to say he does have the odd Gem and debating point. But we see.....Cheers
some highly questionable views here.
That bullsh*t about always ensuring a profit is rubbish. In gambling, if you are afraid to lose you will lose - it's as simple as that.
In-running betting to most of us is next to impossible given the time delay and how long it takes to put on your bet.
That bullsh*t about always ensuring a profit is rubbish. In gambling, if you are afraid to lose you will lose - it's as simple as that.
In-running betting to most of us is next to impossible given the time delay and how long it takes to put on your bet.
Eye Mall, would you never lay a bridle horse in running or back one with a view to laying it at a later stage? The joy of the trade is not as pure as that of the gamble, but there is immense satisfaction in a green screen. Also, would you not have SIS at work?
Interesting that Martin Julien put up Rothwell as a particularly shrewd handler. His horse are running very well the last 12 months.
EYE MALL. As things go I think there is some good stuff there. ;) But as we said at the start you LOVE this type of stuff or HATE it. I'm a lover. :^0
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Okay Thursday professional gambler Chris Broom. His claim to fame seems to be he landed the SCOOP 6 TWICE I think as well as a £165,000 jackpot at Royal Ascot. He's around Nevison and Finlay age in his forties and a ex-bookie employee.
Another interesting old chestnut he throws up is as a gambler its not good to have a strong attachment to money or be to obsessed about by it. He goes on to explain that by saying he means saying if I get x amount I do this and that. Instead of just taking what comes his way and then deciding what to do with it. If you target a win just because you need x amount of money you end up taking extra risk you might best be advised to have avoided. I don't know does that make sense to you. Below is an example that springs to mind for me.
I know when I was grown up. (Yeah some of you will say you still haven't Bless) how I often bet was based on my shopping needs. I might go into town on a Saturday afternoon to buy a jacket with 300 euro. I see one I like for maybe 250 and the designer one I love for 500.
What I would do then was take the 50 and look for a 4/1 chance if it won I brought the designer jacket if it lost I went home happy anyway with my 250 one. With no interest in trying to win back the 50 or going again for the extra 250 needed. Anyway I would know to myself the designer one was never worth 500 in the 1st place and was only worth 300 so I took a shot to see if I could have got it for the extra 50 and now move on.
I say I managed to pull off around 4 out of 10 of those buys. But yeah like Broom said they were usally placed on bets that I wouldn't have been normally doing and purely on price.
So it was just as much down to luck as good judgement. Generally I'm lucky I'm one of those people who do get the right bounce of the ball when betting. B-)
But 1 question is does throw up which I often heard asked is..... Are gamblers more generous than non gamblers?.... I say yes a 100% on that.
What do you think now you have your draw full of white socks after the Christmas present spree ?.
He also throws in a line that should interest the potential full time gamblers out there. He reckons its nots enough to just do it to be your own boss and the quality of lifestyle that brings. But more about been able to do WHAT HE LOVES AND FOR HIMSELF. Which takes us back to the 60-70 hrs week. "If you love Work and the concept Work is your Life." you on your way with 13000 races a year now on telly now to watch. If you don't and work is just a means to reaching your target in life. Well you better find yourself an edge if your going to be succesfull in the long term. :(
His STRATEGY. He's a BOT MAN. His computer programme does the work while he's sleeping. He feeds in the fields every night and his programme throws out a rating for every horse in every race. With his key been the programme seems to be able to weigh up draw bias at certain courses and ground conditions, stable form, jockey etc.
His counterpart from the Racing Post Steve Mason also shares his view on KNOW YOUR TRACKS. He reckons some horses and some form only carry on to certain tracks or is only valid for that track. At a guess I always rated Chepstow and Uttoxer as a plodders track with the ground always been so bad well he reckon Towcester is a plodders track. While on the flat a Lingfield race can be deadly for slow early pace with mile races turning into 3 furlong sprints and of course Windsor and Ascot draw ? bias.
Mason also adds in a interesting point about don't put too much faith in offical going descripitions. He reckons even with the new technology they still can't accurately forecast how a 1000lb horse with a jockey on its back will hit that ground. Putting timing figures for some races under serious doubt as well as what horse handles what ground. The Cheltenham festival opening days in 2008 and 2007 he uses as his example here.
But overall he loves the the Jackpot and Scoop carryovers as he see VALUE in the dead money already in them for a small outlay by HARRYS standards and shared by a few mates... (Hey it works for him) :)
As to his advice for those wanting to turn professional. He says as well as the williness for hard work you also need to have natural tendencies, menthal and behavioural. But these can be learned. B-)
While he reckons the real KEY TO SUCCESS is PSYCHOLOGICAL. ie, Your never as good as you think you are when your winning, and your never as BAD as you think you are when your losing.........So its about keeping that level headedness.
He's say a losing run is a terrible things and if your doing it professionally ITS A LOT WORSE, so its COPING with it, that seperates the Men from the Boys. The right mixture of CAUTION and AGGRESSION.
A lot of gambling he says is about Money Management and thats why a lot of people who are good judges are not good punters because they don't grasp that some of the BEST BETS you can have end up losers ( Tell me about it :( ) and some of your winners are really poor bets.
The KEY been BELIEVE :x don't judge the decision by the Outcome. You have to be sure you did the right thing no matter how it turns out.
........................................................................................................................
Summary, In truth, he didn't give much away about his strategy but his Philosophy makes a good read imo.........Cheers Bless.
PS......Any views.........Tomorrow we look at Nick Mordin.
...............................................................................................................
Okay Thursday professional gambler Chris Broom. His claim to fame seems to be he landed the SCOOP 6 TWICE I think as well as a £165,000 jackpot at Royal Ascot. He's around Nevison and Finlay age in his forties and a ex-bookie employee.
Another interesting old chestnut he throws up is as a gambler its not good to have a strong attachment to money or be to obsessed about by it. He goes on to explain that by saying he means saying if I get x amount I do this and that. Instead of just taking what comes his way and then deciding what to do with it. If you target a win just because you need x amount of money you end up taking extra risk you might best be advised to have avoided. I don't know does that make sense to you. Below is an example that springs to mind for me.
I know when I was grown up. (Yeah some of you will say you still haven't Bless) how I often bet was based on my shopping needs. I might go into town on a Saturday afternoon to buy a jacket with 300 euro. I see one I like for maybe 250 and the designer one I love for 500.
What I would do then was take the 50 and look for a 4/1 chance if it won I brought the designer jacket if it lost I went home happy anyway with my 250 one. With no interest in trying to win back the 50 or going again for the extra 250 needed. Anyway I would know to myself the designer one was never worth 500 in the 1st place and was only worth 300 so I took a shot to see if I could have got it for the extra 50 and now move on.
I say I managed to pull off around 4 out of 10 of those buys. But yeah like Broom said they were usally placed on bets that I wouldn't have been normally doing and purely on price.
So it was just as much down to luck as good judgement. Generally I'm lucky I'm one of those people who do get the right bounce of the ball when betting. B-)
But 1 question is does throw up which I often heard asked is..... Are gamblers more generous than non gamblers?.... I say yes a 100% on that.
What do you think now you have your draw full of white socks after the Christmas present spree ?.
He also throws in a line that should interest the potential full time gamblers out there. He reckons its nots enough to just do it to be your own boss and the quality of lifestyle that brings. But more about been able to do WHAT HE LOVES AND FOR HIMSELF. Which takes us back to the 60-70 hrs week. "If you love Work and the concept Work is your Life." you on your way with 13000 races a year now on telly now to watch. If you don't and work is just a means to reaching your target in life. Well you better find yourself an edge if your going to be succesfull in the long term. :(
His STRATEGY. He's a BOT MAN. His computer programme does the work while he's sleeping. He feeds in the fields every night and his programme throws out a rating for every horse in every race. With his key been the programme seems to be able to weigh up draw bias at certain courses and ground conditions, stable form, jockey etc.
His counterpart from the Racing Post Steve Mason also shares his view on KNOW YOUR TRACKS. He reckons some horses and some form only carry on to certain tracks or is only valid for that track. At a guess I always rated Chepstow and Uttoxer as a plodders track with the ground always been so bad well he reckon Towcester is a plodders track. While on the flat a Lingfield race can be deadly for slow early pace with mile races turning into 3 furlong sprints and of course Windsor and Ascot draw ? bias.
Mason also adds in a interesting point about don't put too much faith in offical going descripitions. He reckons even with the new technology they still can't accurately forecast how a 1000lb horse with a jockey on its back will hit that ground. Putting timing figures for some races under serious doubt as well as what horse handles what ground. The Cheltenham festival opening days in 2008 and 2007 he uses as his example here.
But overall he loves the the Jackpot and Scoop carryovers as he see VALUE in the dead money already in them for a small outlay by HARRYS standards and shared by a few mates... (Hey it works for him) :)
As to his advice for those wanting to turn professional. He says as well as the williness for hard work you also need to have natural tendencies, menthal and behavioural. But these can be learned. B-)
While he reckons the real KEY TO SUCCESS is PSYCHOLOGICAL. ie, Your never as good as you think you are when your winning, and your never as BAD as you think you are when your losing.........So its about keeping that level headedness.
He's say a losing run is a terrible things and if your doing it professionally ITS A LOT WORSE, so its COPING with it, that seperates the Men from the Boys. The right mixture of CAUTION and AGGRESSION.
A lot of gambling he says is about Money Management and thats why a lot of people who are good judges are not good punters because they don't grasp that some of the BEST BETS you can have end up losers ( Tell me about it :( ) and some of your winners are really poor bets.
The KEY been BELIEVE :x don't judge the decision by the Outcome. You have to be sure you did the right thing no matter how it turns out.
........................................................................................................................
Summary, In truth, he didn't give much away about his strategy but his Philosophy makes a good read imo.........Cheers Bless.
PS......Any views.........Tomorrow we look at Nick Mordin.
GALWAYMAN....I saw Martin Julian did that. But I didn't put it in, in case they thought Julian was you. :^0
Bless - I accept Mortgage is cheap credit, especially now
Still I'd prefer to pay it off than invest elsewhere especially in todays climate
EMI - guaranteed profit is bollo, but you can have no opinion on a race and still trade (yesterdays CH at Leop, a classic example)
Still I'd prefer to pay it off than invest elsewhere especially in todays climate
EMI - guaranteed profit is bollo, but you can have no opinion on a race and still trade (yesterdays CH at Leop, a classic example)
Dave Nevison is a journalist and writer, not a professional punter.
Hemingway... yeah Dave Nevison seemed to think the tissues anomaly thing was very simplistic. I wonder would he have backed Miami Moon today at the 22s it went off, assuming his tissue was something closer to the RP's (5-1).
CWC, TGM - I've no issue with sensible trading, but your man in the Post explaining how he'd locked in a profit trading Binocular at 3.4 or whatever it was made no reference to the fact that the 3.4 was in hindsight a bad lay. If you are intent on greening, you are certain to be involved in more bad lays than good ones.
TGM, placing in-running lays pre-race is a totally different matter to reactionary in-running playing, which I think is high-risk stuff without SIS or live feeds. I've made a nice few bob laying the likes of Charming Hymn in-running (often goes off a big price and goes very short in running, finding nil - there are plenty of mugs out there who bet in-running without knowing anything about the horses they are betting on).
I backed a horse this weekend at 5-1 and another at 8-1 that both were backed into 9-4. Both were beaten but overall I think you're better off letting your bets stand unless it seems a genuine good lay.
CWC, TGM - I've no issue with sensible trading, but your man in the Post explaining how he'd locked in a profit trading Binocular at 3.4 or whatever it was made no reference to the fact that the 3.4 was in hindsight a bad lay. If you are intent on greening, you are certain to be involved in more bad lays than good ones.
TGM, placing in-running lays pre-race is a totally different matter to reactionary in-running playing, which I think is high-risk stuff without SIS or live feeds. I've made a nice few bob laying the likes of Charming Hymn in-running (often goes off a big price and goes very short in running, finding nil - there are plenty of mugs out there who bet in-running without knowing anything about the horses they are betting on).
I backed a horse this weekend at 5-1 and another at 8-1 that both were backed into 9-4. Both were beaten but overall I think you're better off letting your bets stand unless it seems a genuine good lay.
A little contribution to your question about value Blessington.
When playing cards you have to always take a long term view of value. In any one hand there is ever only expected value or EV. When you have aces against a smaller pair you have an expected EV of roughly 80% or 1/4 in betting terms. But the other hand has still 20% equity in the pot and no matter how good a player you are you cant do anything to change that.
I understand its a little different in general betting as unlike in cards value is underpined by by more subjective factors and they are seldom as accurate as pure maths.
However, overall, the same long term principle applies. Value is only a results or outcome dependant concept only in as far as the results will normally take care of themselves over time.
When playing cards you have to always take a long term view of value. In any one hand there is ever only expected value or EV. When you have aces against a smaller pair you have an expected EV of roughly 80% or 1/4 in betting terms. But the other hand has still 20% equity in the pot and no matter how good a player you are you cant do anything to change that.
I understand its a little different in general betting as unlike in cards value is underpined by by more subjective factors and they are seldom as accurate as pure maths.
However, overall, the same long term principle applies. Value is only a results or outcome dependant concept only in as far as the results will normally take care of themselves over time.
Paddletoe , I assume you play poker somewhere , reference Aces which presumably relates to the current obsession with Texas hold-em . Dont buy into that game myself , always played 7 card stud myself as a preference , on basis that I could assess possibilities on view of 4 cards in front of my opponents . However the Texas game seems to me more dependent on an ability to bully your opponents rather than outwit/outplay them . Thats against my basic instincts . If I had a mind to set up a fun poker / betting site I would put up Southern Cross , high /low game , everybody gets a run for their money in that game , although a long time since I played it . Never saw the game anywhere on the net though .
Kelly i am affraid most of those old school games of cards you prefer have went the way of the dinosaurs. I doubt they will ever become mainstream games again. Yes, i agree holdem in its no limit form is a lot more than just about the cards each player holds. Its a lot about playing the other player and not just the cards. A lot of times its about putting players into corners they dont want to be in.
Exactly Paddletoe , bullying pays I suspect . Occasinally I log into the Poker on here , mainly as an observer , and to watch the bully boy players get their come-uppance when someone calls their bluff . But for me its a bit of a time waster as ultimately the only winners are the site providers .
To understand the term bullying in cards Kelly you have to understand its not just about puting all your money into a pot holding only your knackers and then closing your eyes hoping you dont get called. A bluff is a combination of the player your up against and the power of money you need to use to outplay him with when you have nothing.
Yes I understand that Paddletoe , and I also think I understand why the game has become so popular . in common with modern fascination for big gas guzzlers which try to dominate our roads.
You really dont want to go bluffing a player holding air when that other plaer is one who gets an orgasm when they flop bottom pair. If only i could take my own advice sometimes though LOL
Dont really know enough about the Texas game to understand all the dialogue , Paddletoe . Reckon I never will as I dont see any opportunity for myself playing it seriously . Play it occasionally at family get togethers for a bit of craic , I put up the ( modest ) prize money for a 2 hour game using the casino type money . But the prize money stays in the family ! And I am teaching the grand-children Monopoly , great educator for potential capitalists , although I find the Irish version a bit strange as I used to live in some of the streets / avenues /parks on the board . Dublin 4 no doubt .
Paddletoe....Nah I'm not into the cards. But about VALUE in betting to me its a MYTH. :0
The only value in betting to me is on the winner and anything above 1.01 THEN was value. This crack about I really fancy something at 1/2 but the other one is 5/2 there and all the bookies are only offering 2/1 is rubbish thinking if your only backing it because of the price and hope that the 1/2 shot won't perform.
By all means Maximise your winnings by getting the best price on your fancy but don't change it because you see a sexier price on the other one. Thats the road to ruin for a gambler. Either take the 1/2 on what you fancied even if you hoped for better or move on.
Betting prices mean nothing its only the price some guys is willing to lay you a bet at. Its nothing to do with probality such as you find with life insurance.
A good example I have think of the weakness of seen value on bets that are only your 2nd choice to win a bet is often seen on the big International races like the Hong Kong or Breeders Cup meeting. Often where you see the bookies refusing to take bets at PMU odds. Look at Eagle Mountain 5/1 in Hong Kong and 9/4 with the bookmakers in that big race recently. If you had got 4/1 off a bookie here was that VALUE or robbery since he was 5/1 on course.
Likewise RAVENS PASS in the Breeders Cup 8/1 with the bookies 14/1 on course was 10/1 VALUE.
Nah the only VALUE in betting imo is when your fancy goes past the post first and then anything becomes a BONUS. imo :^0
The only value in betting to me is on the winner and anything above 1.01 THEN was value. This crack about I really fancy something at 1/2 but the other one is 5/2 there and all the bookies are only offering 2/1 is rubbish thinking if your only backing it because of the price and hope that the 1/2 shot won't perform.
By all means Maximise your winnings by getting the best price on your fancy but don't change it because you see a sexier price on the other one. Thats the road to ruin for a gambler. Either take the 1/2 on what you fancied even if you hoped for better or move on.
Betting prices mean nothing its only the price some guys is willing to lay you a bet at. Its nothing to do with probality such as you find with life insurance.
A good example I have think of the weakness of seen value on bets that are only your 2nd choice to win a bet is often seen on the big International races like the Hong Kong or Breeders Cup meeting. Often where you see the bookies refusing to take bets at PMU odds. Look at Eagle Mountain 5/1 in Hong Kong and 9/4 with the bookmakers in that big race recently. If you had got 4/1 off a bookie here was that VALUE or robbery since he was 5/1 on course.
Likewise RAVENS PASS in the Breeders Cup 8/1 with the bookies 14/1 on course was 10/1 VALUE.
Nah the only VALUE in betting imo is when your fancy goes past the post first and then anything becomes a BONUS. imo :^0
Blessington its very true you cant spend value when a value bet gets gubbed. But at the end of the year you will be smoking cuban cigars and eating steak while the poor sod who gives you value and is happy when he just gets a winner will be surviving on beans on toast.
Winning in betting is all about value but if your good at this game you should take value for granted and its not something you need to think too hard about. You either got it or you dont. And, if you have it, you cant teach it.
Winning in betting is all about value but if your good at this game you should take value for granted and its not something you need to think too hard about. You either got it or you dont. And, if you have it, you cant teach it.
Good news KELLY we are back in VOGUE with a NO NO to Handicap sprints and a YES for condition races. B-)
Friday Betting Masterclass introduced us to NICK MORDIN.
Nick is another betting book author as well as a writer in the Weekender. He's probably best known for his systems approach to betting. I gather he lives in America so we better not mention betting then as a livelyhood and also runs a telephone line tipping service. (Not bad for a ex-pat)
Okay NICK get them out of the way hit me with your stats.
If you bet every horse returning to the races with a penalty within 3 days of a win you will have made 15% over the last 13 years in Britain on Flat, Jumps and All Weather racing.
Nick Henderson hurling debutants have won on 44% of the time from January - April and gave good profits for its followers.
Only 3 out of 8 odds on favourites have won at the festival in the last 6 years. He reckons hyped horses are now OVERhyped compared to the past so if you can find a good reason oppose such horses you can now obtain fantastic value.
Back William Haggas horses in All Weather maidens that have run before. He has around a 33% strike rate that now goes back years.
Unfortunely he goes on to say eventually things like the above will get factored into the price So the REAL key is often to look for recent changes that most punters have yet fully to take on like a new draw bias depending on the weather at some courses, etc.
The basic idea is look for ideas which predict winners a high percentage of the time.
(Okay Nick I'm not into systems move on) :(
His STRADEGY ....BE DIFFERENT don't fall into the trap of following over hype horses.
Go against the crowd. You can't make money long term by betting with them since 97% of gamblers are losers. :0 But don't pick and choose he says you must do it all the time. Backing Foreign runners against the local often pays for him in that regard. A view that is shared by his Racing Post colleague on the same page Ben Hutton.
Do bet by numbers if that means doing in lots of research, ie the more horses form you check in every race the more likehood you will predict what is the likely outcome and see which races are worth backing in.
Pay particular attention to International Group 1 races and Top Condition races over the jumps for experience chasers. As you should be awares of all the facts about each of them. :x
Keep away from big Handicap sprints.
While the key to your betting been to have good Money Management skills which was also mentioned yesterday and Maximise your profits by putting yourself in line to hit your occassional Jackpot. ie, don't bet to level stakes.
By that he says most professional gamblers break even on 80% of their betting its the other 20% of bets that decide whether it was a good year or not for them. (Tell me about it Nick I make about 12 decent bets a year which my season rides or fall on but unfortunely Betfair are killing me now with their 20% Premiun Charges if 3 or more of those bets now come up.) :(
Anyway for Nick he favours his season making bets to be on landing the huge forecast Trifecta, Placepot, or other multiple and joining betting syndicates in some cases to do them. While Ben says to Maximise winnings don't lower your stakes just because your fancy is 33/1 not 2/1.
Another word of wisedom Ben went on to add "Forgive and actively go in pursuit of excuses for losers last time out". A debateable point I would say, whether its worth sticking with bets that disappoint last time.
While his DON'T was don't assume you always get the best price on Betfair. Which to me highlights a negative feeling towards Betfair in recent weeks coming from the most UNLIKELY of sources which I can only put down to the introducton of PREMIUN CHARGES at least in its present state. ;(
..................................................................................................................
SUMMARY....I think it was a EXCELLENT SERIES by the Racing Post and enjoyed it.
The guy closest to my thinking I would say was Nick Mordin B-) His main strategy of thinking outside the box, betting on condition races, only stepping in for the kill a dozen times or so a year, as well as good money management skills and maxismising your profits would be the basic of my stradegy.
I HOPE SOME OF YOU FOUND SOMETHING GOOD FOR YOURSELFS OUT OF THEM.
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR PUNTING......Bless
Friday Betting Masterclass introduced us to NICK MORDIN.
Nick is another betting book author as well as a writer in the Weekender. He's probably best known for his systems approach to betting. I gather he lives in America so we better not mention betting then as a livelyhood and also runs a telephone line tipping service. (Not bad for a ex-pat)
Okay NICK get them out of the way hit me with your stats.
If you bet every horse returning to the races with a penalty within 3 days of a win you will have made 15% over the last 13 years in Britain on Flat, Jumps and All Weather racing.
Nick Henderson hurling debutants have won on 44% of the time from January - April and gave good profits for its followers.
Only 3 out of 8 odds on favourites have won at the festival in the last 6 years. He reckons hyped horses are now OVERhyped compared to the past so if you can find a good reason oppose such horses you can now obtain fantastic value.
Back William Haggas horses in All Weather maidens that have run before. He has around a 33% strike rate that now goes back years.
Unfortunely he goes on to say eventually things like the above will get factored into the price So the REAL key is often to look for recent changes that most punters have yet fully to take on like a new draw bias depending on the weather at some courses, etc.
The basic idea is look for ideas which predict winners a high percentage of the time.
(Okay Nick I'm not into systems move on) :(
His STRADEGY ....BE DIFFERENT don't fall into the trap of following over hype horses.
Go against the crowd. You can't make money long term by betting with them since 97% of gamblers are losers. :0 But don't pick and choose he says you must do it all the time. Backing Foreign runners against the local often pays for him in that regard. A view that is shared by his Racing Post colleague on the same page Ben Hutton.
Do bet by numbers if that means doing in lots of research, ie the more horses form you check in every race the more likehood you will predict what is the likely outcome and see which races are worth backing in.
Pay particular attention to International Group 1 races and Top Condition races over the jumps for experience chasers. As you should be awares of all the facts about each of them. :x
Keep away from big Handicap sprints.
While the key to your betting been to have good Money Management skills which was also mentioned yesterday and Maximise your profits by putting yourself in line to hit your occassional Jackpot. ie, don't bet to level stakes.
By that he says most professional gamblers break even on 80% of their betting its the other 20% of bets that decide whether it was a good year or not for them. (Tell me about it Nick I make about 12 decent bets a year which my season rides or fall on but unfortunely Betfair are killing me now with their 20% Premiun Charges if 3 or more of those bets now come up.) :(
Anyway for Nick he favours his season making bets to be on landing the huge forecast Trifecta, Placepot, or other multiple and joining betting syndicates in some cases to do them. While Ben says to Maximise winnings don't lower your stakes just because your fancy is 33/1 not 2/1.
Another word of wisedom Ben went on to add "Forgive and actively go in pursuit of excuses for losers last time out". A debateable point I would say, whether its worth sticking with bets that disappoint last time.
While his DON'T was don't assume you always get the best price on Betfair. Which to me highlights a negative feeling towards Betfair in recent weeks coming from the most UNLIKELY of sources which I can only put down to the introducton of PREMIUN CHARGES at least in its present state. ;(
..................................................................................................................
SUMMARY....I think it was a EXCELLENT SERIES by the Racing Post and enjoyed it.
The guy closest to my thinking I would say was Nick Mordin B-) His main strategy of thinking outside the box, betting on condition races, only stepping in for the kill a dozen times or so a year, as well as good money management skills and maxismising your profits would be the basic of my stradegy.
I HOPE SOME OF YOU FOUND SOMETHING GOOD FOR YOURSELFS OUT OF THEM.
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR PUNTING......Bless
Interesting articles as you say Bless. Clearly different strokes work for different folks. Staking plans as opposed to money management did not appear that high a priority. Some professionals like to really kick on when having a winning day and do the opposite if on a losing run. Go for the jugular as they say. If you get a few winners early on and if you really fancy one later then have the lot on or most of it anyway. It an opportunity to turn a right few quid and if it doesnt work you still walk away either square or with a small profit. The longer I'm at this game the more sensible that approach imo.
OBSERVER....I thought they were GREAT articles as you say there is tips in them for every type of punter. I know there One or Two tips I will be taken up like not backing horses from stables which are on the cold list. I was inclined in the past to ignore such things and just write it off as the stable horses weren't just good enough. I think twice now.
Likewise I might look again at handicaps. I was always in the past inclined to go off for a bit of grub at the races when the big handicaps was on next. Certainly the Royal Ascot Handicaps anyway I look again. While Steve Mason tip about course form I found also interesting eg, some courses form will carry anywhere while others won't hold up. Chester in May was the only course form I used to ignore because of the draw bias and the way it favoured front runners. While Windsor with its draw bias was always a law on to itself on where the winners would come from.
As for your point on staking. Yeah that difficult to write rules in stone for. Ben Hutton did say people make mistakes over loweing there stake on a horse they might fancy at 10/1 compared to what they might put on if the same horse was 2/1
But Chris Broom point was probably the most interesting. He reckon a big mistake we made in staking is when we are winning we think we are better than we are as punters. While when we are losing we think we are worse and cut back our stakes.
When in fact the KEY he thinks is level headness whether your winning or losing. BELIEF I think he calls it.
But personally Marten Julian staking plan is the one I live by. That is " You never go broke taking a profit" so his GOLDEN RULE which can be a bit controlversial, is always try to protect your stake. Which for him is done in the inrunning markets whether its Golf, Racing, a Soccer Match, or whatever........Cheers
Likewise I might look again at handicaps. I was always in the past inclined to go off for a bit of grub at the races when the big handicaps was on next. Certainly the Royal Ascot Handicaps anyway I look again. While Steve Mason tip about course form I found also interesting eg, some courses form will carry anywhere while others won't hold up. Chester in May was the only course form I used to ignore because of the draw bias and the way it favoured front runners. While Windsor with its draw bias was always a law on to itself on where the winners would come from.
As for your point on staking. Yeah that difficult to write rules in stone for. Ben Hutton did say people make mistakes over loweing there stake on a horse they might fancy at 10/1 compared to what they might put on if the same horse was 2/1
But Chris Broom point was probably the most interesting. He reckon a big mistake we made in staking is when we are winning we think we are better than we are as punters. While when we are losing we think we are worse and cut back our stakes.
When in fact the KEY he thinks is level headness whether your winning or losing. BELIEF I think he calls it.
But personally Marten Julian staking plan is the one I live by. That is " You never go broke taking a profit" so his GOLDEN RULE which can be a bit controlversial, is always try to protect your stake. Which for him is done in the inrunning markets whether its Golf, Racing, a Soccer Match, or whatever........Cheers
stake protection is often a pyschological issue
your attitude to risk
I take EMI's point about running styles, research can pay dividends and good luck to those who do it
your attitude to risk
I take EMI's point about running styles, research can pay dividends and good luck to those who do it
Interesting spread of info , Bless . However if there was a foolproof system someone would have rumbled it , so I tend to stay away from any stereotyped approach . My favourite betting medium would be over the jumps , condition races with experienced horses with proven form . I have been betting / trading for 4 months or more now on 3 races at the Cheltenham festival , viz Champion Hurdle , World Hurdle , Gold Cup . Green all round . They fit perfectly into my preferred races and there is relatively speaking plenty of liquidity on here , and coccassionally on the purple place , but it has died there over last 3 weeks so I can only conclude that somebody has gone skint . The other thing I notice about the posts on this is that everyone seems to be intent on picking winners . Its a lot easier to pick losers , and laying a loser is equivalent to backing a winner . I prefer to concentrate on isolating losers , rather than picking winners . And in a 10 horse race there are 9 losers and only 1 winner . People sometimes forget that basic truth . But then again its not chic to say you picked out 3 losers in a race as against the glory of picking a winner . Betfair has changed the way we should all approach the daily struggle !
I'm not profitable, but i'm getting better!
For example, a choice:
1. Get stuck into tomorrow's 6 (!) cards trying to find a few bets despite the fact that you know in your heart of hearts that 75% of the horses running are poor, another 20% are dodgepots and the 5% good horses are running in novice/beginner (thus dodgy) races.
2. Keep waiting for Wild Cane Ridge to roll up as top weight in a class 3 race in the soft (hopefully at Ayr but we'll chance his Wetherby entry!) and get stuck in when he does.
In the past i'd have probably placed 8 times as much money milling around on tomorrow's dross then had a small bet amongst many others (its Saturday) on my fancied animal.
Experience has taught me to waste a bit of chintz on tomorrow's races FOR SHEER ENTERTAINMENT and the chance to get a silly multiple up and save my wedge for my chosen horse (or whomever your chosen horse may be.
And always have more than one good reason to stick a good bet on.
For example, a choice:
1. Get stuck into tomorrow's 6 (!) cards trying to find a few bets despite the fact that you know in your heart of hearts that 75% of the horses running are poor, another 20% are dodgepots and the 5% good horses are running in novice/beginner (thus dodgy) races.
2. Keep waiting for Wild Cane Ridge to roll up as top weight in a class 3 race in the soft (hopefully at Ayr but we'll chance his Wetherby entry!) and get stuck in when he does.
In the past i'd have probably placed 8 times as much money milling around on tomorrow's dross then had a small bet amongst many others (its Saturday) on my fancied animal.
Experience has taught me to waste a bit of chintz on tomorrow's races FOR SHEER ENTERTAINMENT and the chance to get a silly multiple up and save my wedge for my chosen horse (or whomever your chosen horse may be.
And always have more than one good reason to stick a good bet on.
Good to see this thread back as we left it a bit incomplete since we never done Patrick VEITCH. I must check out the Racing Post site to see is his interviews still there. Sadly I didn't read his book and its not around now in my local bookshop. But like I said I see can we do a short summary later on his methods and his favourite markets. Unless somebody else wants to offer us a DETAIL summary.
In the meantime here's something to ponder on.
Whats required SKILLS is needed to survive as a profitable player on Betfair
The abilty to be able to constanly make YOUR own decisions
1...Like whether you follow the herd menatilty or take them on.
2...What markets you bet on after that what is there 6000 markets a week on Betfair.
3...To be able to react quickly as 1 second in Betfair is like a month in a ordinary job when deciding what to do now.
4...To be able to compete with is it 2 million other rivals from all around the world who are operating 24 x 7 to chase the Queen Shilling, (ah come on it doesn't sound the same saying the Euro whatever)
5...Been able to do it with a mixture of natural abilty and constant and detail analysis.
Which you then have to put together in the heat of the moment and use it to read the sitaution a fraction of a second quicker than anybody else betting against you.
6...Keeping up todate with technology changes such as fast pictures, intrenet streaming, and fastest internet providors.
7..A acceptance that local Irish knowledge of sport is now not enough to make the bob. With more and more International sports betting events from Horse Racing, Golf, Rugby, Motar Racing and Soccer you now have to keep a eye on everything from the weather to looking for new undiscovered potential stars in La Liga, Stade Du France or Longchamp.
8...Probably most importanly how to make the agnoising decisions and make that necessary U-turn to stop a loss.
9...The abilty to be able to operate with a clear head often during unsocializible hours.
10...The temperment to Switch Off your computer and wait for tomorrow when things just aren't going for you today.
OKAY WHO'S going to give us NO11 and 12. ?????? B-)
I'm sure there's a lot more you can add to that so I leave it with you.
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ps...Nah that doesn't count as a Skill backing Kerry against Cork in Croke Park that falls under STUPIDITY not to. Isn't that right FULLBACK :^0 :^0 :^0
In the meantime here's something to ponder on.
Whats required SKILLS is needed to survive as a profitable player on Betfair
The abilty to be able to constanly make YOUR own decisions
1...Like whether you follow the herd menatilty or take them on.
2...What markets you bet on after that what is there 6000 markets a week on Betfair.
3...To be able to react quickly as 1 second in Betfair is like a month in a ordinary job when deciding what to do now.
4...To be able to compete with is it 2 million other rivals from all around the world who are operating 24 x 7 to chase the Queen Shilling, (ah come on it doesn't sound the same saying the Euro whatever)
5...Been able to do it with a mixture of natural abilty and constant and detail analysis.
Which you then have to put together in the heat of the moment and use it to read the sitaution a fraction of a second quicker than anybody else betting against you.
6...Keeping up todate with technology changes such as fast pictures, intrenet streaming, and fastest internet providors.
7..A acceptance that local Irish knowledge of sport is now not enough to make the bob. With more and more International sports betting events from Horse Racing, Golf, Rugby, Motar Racing and Soccer you now have to keep a eye on everything from the weather to looking for new undiscovered potential stars in La Liga, Stade Du France or Longchamp.
8...Probably most importanly how to make the agnoising decisions and make that necessary U-turn to stop a loss.
9...The abilty to be able to operate with a clear head often during unsocializible hours.
10...The temperment to Switch Off your computer and wait for tomorrow when things just aren't going for you today.
OKAY WHO'S going to give us NO11 and 12. ?????? B-)
I'm sure there's a lot more you can add to that so I leave it with you.
...........................................................................................................
ps...Nah that doesn't count as a Skill backing Kerry against Cork in Croke Park that falls under STUPIDITY not to. Isn't that right FULLBACK :^0 :^0 :^0
Couldnt believe Kerry were odds off against etc.
;-)
;-)
CAILINE...The bookies obiviously thought Kerry win over Dublin was against a sh1te team.
But YOU knew better Dublin future winners of the All Ireland in 2????? :^0
PS..Do you know next year semi-final match ups. Who gets Connaught since Leinster got them this year.
But YOU knew better Dublin future winners of the All Ireland in 2????? :^0
PS..Do you know next year semi-final match ups. Who gets Connaught since Leinster got them this year.
Recognising that its time to take a long break when you no longer see the wood from the trees.
I never lost the faith in Kerry Bless. Tipped them up at 9/2 ON hope you followed me in.
:-)
:-)
Just picked up on this again , some good posts in the thread .
I have no system , other than betting in the right races , and hopefully on the right horse . I cant be bothered to analyze tricky handicaps , and knowing the records of certain trainers ( not all ) there is an element of "**ers charter " in the handicap system . Level wieght races largely do not carry the same baggage apropos this type of behaviour .
The bookies now are all operating on a Betfair led market , tracking our market . Will be delighted to see some shrewd people doing a bit of bluffing on them . In early trading you could push out a horse with relatively small outlay in relation to the eventual total market . Back it back then ( unless it was a serial drifter ) . All you would need is an assurance that the horse concerned could / might win , was fit and trying , and that SP odds would reflect this . It would of course help considerably if connections were of the same mind ! And I suspect some have already operated in this way , and good luck to them , its part of the game ( as long as the horse is trying ) .
I have no system , other than betting in the right races , and hopefully on the right horse . I cant be bothered to analyze tricky handicaps , and knowing the records of certain trainers ( not all ) there is an element of "**ers charter " in the handicap system . Level wieght races largely do not carry the same baggage apropos this type of behaviour .
The bookies now are all operating on a Betfair led market , tracking our market . Will be delighted to see some shrewd people doing a bit of bluffing on them . In early trading you could push out a horse with relatively small outlay in relation to the eventual total market . Back it back then ( unless it was a serial drifter ) . All you would need is an assurance that the horse concerned could / might win , was fit and trying , and that SP odds would reflect this . It would of course help considerably if connections were of the same mind ! And I suspect some have already operated in this way , and good luck to them , its part of the game ( as long as the horse is trying ) .
Bless - I have read the Veech book and can post it to you if you like?
BLESS- Its munster v leinster.ulster v connacht.ive started my ante post already on one team based purely on this fact!!!!
"Tips" offered by people with a generally pessimistic outlook on life should be accorded more credibility than those of optimists.
Observerirl....You sound there like a Bookie GAA odds complier. :D But fair point.
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Caillini...Your secret is safe on here. Was it you who working on the big screen in Croke Park yesterday who put up " Comhgairdeas Coraigh GAA Football All Ireland Champions 2009" Thats the beauty about GAA betting even when a guy see it in front of his own eyes he still "BELIEVES" that is even when the game is OVER he still thinks his team might win. :^0
...........................................................................................................
Cheers for Thea....Yeah love it..... But remember its a thankless job so don't put yourself how too much. ......
If you can identifly any Tips he gave you or even the GEM it would be appreciated by most. .....
Plus maybe your views on what he saids like thats clever, or impratical for most of us that idea.......
And finally any prefer betting markets some like Sprint Handicaps while others like myself and KELLY hate them even if the draw can often rule half the field out.
I actually read a article recently on him in Pacemaker or whatever they call it now about horse ownership which gave food for thought. Which made me go out and see could I find his book.He does have some interesting views but don't know did he preach them in his book... or was he just going on about his successful 100/1 gamble. B-)
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KELLY....Did you see that poor auld owner who got fined £3000 last week for laying his hores on Betfair in the place market to win £200. But yet bet something in the region of £6000 to WIN and it finished unplaced. Not sure exactly his reasoning on the bets but maybe there was none since they let him off with a fine instead of a ban.......But you wonder how they traced him in the first place
................................................................................................................
REB.... When is this book coming out on your favourite Irishman Charlie Haughey we know on here we can rely on you for a totally unbiased review of our great man... :x
thats according to some professor on RTE today he said is badly needed.
but in the meantime I see can I find any optimist left in this country now outside the Kingdom Cheers
....................................................................................................
Caillini...Your secret is safe on here. Was it you who working on the big screen in Croke Park yesterday who put up " Comhgairdeas Coraigh GAA Football All Ireland Champions 2009" Thats the beauty about GAA betting even when a guy see it in front of his own eyes he still "BELIEVES" that is even when the game is OVER he still thinks his team might win. :^0
...........................................................................................................
Cheers for Thea....Yeah love it..... But remember its a thankless job so don't put yourself how too much. ......
If you can identifly any Tips he gave you or even the GEM it would be appreciated by most. .....
Plus maybe your views on what he saids like thats clever, or impratical for most of us that idea.......
And finally any prefer betting markets some like Sprint Handicaps while others like myself and KELLY hate them even if the draw can often rule half the field out.
I actually read a article recently on him in Pacemaker or whatever they call it now about horse ownership which gave food for thought. Which made me go out and see could I find his book.He does have some interesting views but don't know did he preach them in his book... or was he just going on about his successful 100/1 gamble. B-)
...........................................................................................................
KELLY....Did you see that poor auld owner who got fined £3000 last week for laying his hores on Betfair in the place market to win £200. But yet bet something in the region of £6000 to WIN and it finished unplaced. Not sure exactly his reasoning on the bets but maybe there was none since they let him off with a fine instead of a ban.......But you wonder how they traced him in the first place
................................................................................................................
REB.... When is this book coming out on your favourite Irishman Charlie Haughey we know on here we can rely on you for a totally unbiased review of our great man... :x
thats according to some professor on RTE today he said is badly needed.
but in the meantime I see can I find any optimist left in this country now outside the Kingdom Cheers
WIZARD....Yeah thanks for thats. Looks like who ever wins Munster this year will virtually have a bye to the final unless "you know who" can discover 15 new players by then. :^0
I must do a preview for the Heineken Cup soon. Its starts the week after the Arc. Munster look to have a b1tch of a draw this year again. Just hope Treviso are as bad as last year for letting teams get bonus points against them and don't start improving like in 2007. Five out of Six bonus points teams got off them last year. As we could very easy need best runners up to qualify from the pool with French Champions Perpignan and team of the moment in England Northampton in the pool....Cheers
I must do a preview for the Heineken Cup soon. Its starts the week after the Arc. Munster look to have a b1tch of a draw this year again. Just hope Treviso are as bad as last year for letting teams get bonus points against them and don't start improving like in 2007. Five out of Six bonus points teams got off them last year. As we could very easy need best runners up to qualify from the pool with French Champions Perpignan and team of the moment in England Northampton in the pool....Cheers
Did not see that Bless . Depends on the price of the horse I suppose . If it was bigger than 30/1 he was a net winner . "If you cant win , dont finish placed " I suspect is often a comment in the parade ring . Wonder like you how such a small figure was worthy of investigation .
No it was a horse called Spoof Master - well unless there has been another - owned by William Hinge. The horse was beaten 2nd on 2 occasions at Southwell last winter when trained by Neville.
Sorry Bless I meant I could post the book to you..
Let me know!
In terms of what the book said, yes there was plenty look what a good punter I am - he mainly advocates attention to detail. I'm afraid it was slightly in one ear and out the other but I enjoyed reading it..as I did this thread.
Good luck
Sorry Bless I meant I could post the book to you..
Let me know!
In terms of what the book said, yes there was plenty look what a good punter I am - he mainly advocates attention to detail. I'm afraid it was slightly in one ear and out the other but I enjoyed reading it..as I did this thread.
Good luck
Always follow Bertie's tips (Bets in sterling paid in sterling) - the man has a history of getting it right.
No idea what you're trying to say Bless. I'm sure it's just a gentle put down.
By the way, value is backing Kerry at 9/2 ON.
:-)
By the way, value is backing Kerry at 9/2 ON.
:-)
Cheers for Thea....Thanks for your generous offer but I won't inflict it on you. I do the Racing Post archive first and see has he anything to say and if he has I get Santa to put it in my stocking in place of the mother in law present of white socks that I might have loved when I first dated her daughter. :^0
Yeah when the book first came out I read some of the extracts in the Racing Post but it came across like our own Jacuzzi man all about how great he is rather than his strategy for finding his bets. So letting it go in one ear and out the other like you have mightn't be any harm.....
But his thoughts like I said on horse ownership were interesting thats what drew my attention back to him. So I see can I trace the articles later tonight.
Yeah thats the guy alright William Hinge and the horse Spoof Master. Thats a weird story. Here it is for KELLY the Racing Post report.
[i]By Jon Lees7.19AM 14 SEP 2009
A RACEHORSE owner found guilty of laying one of his own horses to lose has escaped a disqualification, after the BHA accepted he could not have profited from his betting activity.
William Hinge placed lay bets on Spoof Master, of which he was joint owner, to lose two races in which the horse finished second last year, but lost money because he staked more substantial sums in bets on the horse to win.
A disciplinary inquiry last week heard Hinge placed 27 lay bets on Spoof Master to lose a race at Southwell on February 7 last year on Betfair, with a liability of £3,004.70, for a potential profit of £597.
He also placed nine bets on the horse to win, including £2,000 with Vicks C, £1,000 with T0tesport and £3,000 with Eden Bookmakers, which resulted in a net loss of £5,657.80.
When the horse ran again a week later at the same track he staked £19.20 for a potential profit of £6 on Spoof Master to lose and two bets on the horse to win, £800 with Billy Mountains and £8,000 with Vick C.
Though owners are barred from laying horses they own, Hinge told the inquiry he had not thought he was inbreach, because he stood to lose substantially more than he would have done if the horse was beaten. But the panel found this did not negate his culpability.
The offence carries a minimum penalty of three months disqualification but the panel found the sentence would be "unduly harsh in the view that the lay betting activity in these races could not have been profitable".
It said there was also "no suggestion made that the horse had not been allowed to run on its merits or that there were unusual betting patterns in either race", and Hinge was fined £1,250.
Hinge's solicitor, Christopher Stewart-Moore, said: "Mr Hinge had a fair hearing. He was unawareof the
Yeah when the book first came out I read some of the extracts in the Racing Post but it came across like our own Jacuzzi man all about how great he is rather than his strategy for finding his bets. So letting it go in one ear and out the other like you have mightn't be any harm.....
But his thoughts like I said on horse ownership were interesting thats what drew my attention back to him. So I see can I trace the articles later tonight.
Yeah thats the guy alright William Hinge and the horse Spoof Master. Thats a weird story. Here it is for KELLY the Racing Post report.
[i]By Jon Lees7.19AM 14 SEP 2009
A RACEHORSE owner found guilty of laying one of his own horses to lose has escaped a disqualification, after the BHA accepted he could not have profited from his betting activity.
William Hinge placed lay bets on Spoof Master, of which he was joint owner, to lose two races in which the horse finished second last year, but lost money because he staked more substantial sums in bets on the horse to win.
A disciplinary inquiry last week heard Hinge placed 27 lay bets on Spoof Master to lose a race at Southwell on February 7 last year on Betfair, with a liability of £3,004.70, for a potential profit of £597.
He also placed nine bets on the horse to win, including £2,000 with Vicks C, £1,000 with T0tesport and £3,000 with Eden Bookmakers, which resulted in a net loss of £5,657.80.
When the horse ran again a week later at the same track he staked £19.20 for a potential profit of £6 on Spoof Master to lose and two bets on the horse to win, £800 with Billy Mountains and £8,000 with Vick C.
Though owners are barred from laying horses they own, Hinge told the inquiry he had not thought he was inbreach, because he stood to lose substantially more than he would have done if the horse was beaten. But the panel found this did not negate his culpability.
The offence carries a minimum penalty of three months disqualification but the panel found the sentence would be "unduly harsh in the view that the lay betting activity in these races could not have been profitable".
It said there was also "no suggestion made that the horse had not been allowed to run on its merits or that there were unusual betting patterns in either race", and Hinge was fined £1,250.
Hinge's solicitor, Christopher Stewart-Moore, said: "Mr Hinge had a fair hearing. He was unawareof the
CAILLINI....Don't tell us this wasn't you......Well that only leaves FULLBACK.
GAA left red-faced over big screen blunder
22 September 2009
A message which appeared on one of Croke Park's big screens congratulating Cork on winning the All-Ireland football title moments after last Sunday's final has caused considerable embarrassment for the GAA.
As thousands of Kerry fans raced onto the field to celebrate their side's 0-16 to 1-9 victory, the big screen situated at the stadium's Davin Stand end flashed the message: "Comhghairdeas Corcaigh, GAA Football All-Ireland champions 2009." ¨:^0 :^0 :^0
Moments later it was replaced by: "Comhghairdeas Chiarrai, GAA Football All-Ireland champions 2009." B-)
Croke Park sources last night admitted the error was 'unfortunate'.
A source explained to the Irish Examiner: "In situations like this the screen operators have three options or slides, congratulations for each team and then a notice in the event of a draw. Obviously the wrong slide was put up. It was an unfortunate mistake." ;)
GAA left red-faced over big screen blunder
22 September 2009
A message which appeared on one of Croke Park's big screens congratulating Cork on winning the All-Ireland football title moments after last Sunday's final has caused considerable embarrassment for the GAA.
As thousands of Kerry fans raced onto the field to celebrate their side's 0-16 to 1-9 victory, the big screen situated at the stadium's Davin Stand end flashed the message: "Comhghairdeas Corcaigh, GAA Football All-Ireland champions 2009." ¨:^0 :^0 :^0
Moments later it was replaced by: "Comhghairdeas Chiarrai, GAA Football All-Ireland champions 2009." B-)
Croke Park sources last night admitted the error was 'unfortunate'.
A source explained to the Irish Examiner: "In situations like this the screen operators have three options or slides, congratulations for each team and then a notice in the event of a draw. Obviously the wrong slide was put up. It was an unfortunate mistake." ;)
OKAY how I think PATRICK VEITCH operates.
Shares some similar belief to myself and KEANO. "Fail to prepare. Prepare to fail" ie big into resarch ie. in his case watching race videos over and over again and drawing up a list of notes on horses.
With sometimes as many as 25 of his horses with notes running on a day.
( Food for thought whether its a good idea to keep notebooks on horses who are worth keeping a eye on or whether you act like me by first looking at a race and ruling out what can't win. Instead of whats likely to win. ie I rather bet on a race I can rule out a lot of the runners rather than one where I think this one has the best chance. If you follow that.)
Again like Bless doesn't really believe in the VALUE THEORY. By all means get the best price available for your fancy but don't just back a horse because it seems a good price. ;)
Adds to that by saying he prefers to do his own research to find underestimated and overestimated horses in a race especially for handicaps. Reckons watching races over and over again is way better for forming a opinion than reading the formbook. As he's a big believer in true run races form ie pace of a race is a big thing for him.
Doesn't go overboard for the big name jocks and I think he even gets put off backing some like Ryan Moore on outside rides because of the effect they have on the price. Thinks Fallon is the No 1 man around B-).
He focuses on races from 5 furlongs to a Mile not a 100% sure why. If you know I be interested to hear.
Finally always open to Helpful advice from stable yard sources when its available. Ha Ha aren't we all. :^0
VEITCH OPINION OF SUCCESSFUL GAMBLERS TRAITS
Reckons ideally you need a split personality. On the one hand a personality that is logical and Methodical he says like a brain surgeon......On the other hand a agression like he says a Mad Axeman.
As he reckons if you have logic and method but not agression you will be successful but not at a high level......Where if your the opposite you will lose money quickly.
..............................................................................................................
OKAY how did I do?...... I reckon I probably get his book alright for Christmas but sounds like it reads a lot like a diary than any wonderfull tips for successful betting.......Cheers
Shares some similar belief to myself and KEANO. "Fail to prepare. Prepare to fail" ie big into resarch ie. in his case watching race videos over and over again and drawing up a list of notes on horses.
With sometimes as many as 25 of his horses with notes running on a day.
( Food for thought whether its a good idea to keep notebooks on horses who are worth keeping a eye on or whether you act like me by first looking at a race and ruling out what can't win. Instead of whats likely to win. ie I rather bet on a race I can rule out a lot of the runners rather than one where I think this one has the best chance. If you follow that.)
Again like Bless doesn't really believe in the VALUE THEORY. By all means get the best price available for your fancy but don't just back a horse because it seems a good price. ;)
Adds to that by saying he prefers to do his own research to find underestimated and overestimated horses in a race especially for handicaps. Reckons watching races over and over again is way better for forming a opinion than reading the formbook. As he's a big believer in true run races form ie pace of a race is a big thing for him.
Doesn't go overboard for the big name jocks and I think he even gets put off backing some like Ryan Moore on outside rides because of the effect they have on the price. Thinks Fallon is the No 1 man around B-).
He focuses on races from 5 furlongs to a Mile not a 100% sure why. If you know I be interested to hear.
Finally always open to Helpful advice from stable yard sources when its available. Ha Ha aren't we all. :^0
VEITCH OPINION OF SUCCESSFUL GAMBLERS TRAITS
Reckons ideally you need a split personality. On the one hand a personality that is logical and Methodical he says like a brain surgeon......On the other hand a agression like he says a Mad Axeman.
As he reckons if you have logic and method but not agression you will be successful but not at a high level......Where if your the opposite you will lose money quickly.
..............................................................................................................
OKAY how did I do?...... I reckon I probably get his book alright for Christmas but sounds like it reads a lot like a diary than any wonderfull tips for successful betting.......Cheers
Yeah I think you've nailed it there really. His take on 'getting on' and ownership are quite interesting. He is very closely associated to Stuart Williams, Dave Barron, Will Haggas to name but a few. He is involved in the breeding side, very tight with Redvers I gather.
He prefers shorter races as a strongly run race is more likely.
Lazerright....Thanks for that information... I forgot why he prefer races a mile or less. Interesting point he make about true run races. Probably a lot of us don't really pay enough attention to how fast or slow a race is run apart from the odd race which is highlighted by the media.
Certainly O'brien seems to agree with him considering how many pacemakers he runs in races these days. While most people see the only danger to Sea The Stars next weekend is whether he will stay the 1 1/2 miles of a Arc a race which is normally a fast run race.
While taking note of all these little Tips from the professionals can be time consuming. I think taking them on board in the long run is worth while even if it makes your betting more selective. Its also bound to cut out a extra loser or Two or highlight something at a good price to take on a weak favourite. Often come the end of a season how well you done can often fall back to the big winner you got right or the one you missed out on.
Good Luck with your betting.......Cheers
Certainly O'brien seems to agree with him considering how many pacemakers he runs in races these days. While most people see the only danger to Sea The Stars next weekend is whether he will stay the 1 1/2 miles of a Arc a race which is normally a fast run race.
While taking note of all these little Tips from the professionals can be time consuming. I think taking them on board in the long run is worth while even if it makes your betting more selective. Its also bound to cut out a extra loser or Two or highlight something at a good price to take on a weak favourite. Often come the end of a season how well you done can often fall back to the big winner you got right or the one you missed out on.
Good Luck with your betting.......Cheers
how do u bring back these olds threads?
Iam looking for a thread in chelt section an its gone anyway of looking at it again??
Iam looking for a thread in chelt section an its gone anyway of looking at it again??
Hi Bless, how can I get your thread on premium charge back up?
((( " DUNGUIB " ))).........will NOT run in the bumper ! Catch Me ifyoucan
((( " DUNGUIB " ))).........will NOT run in the Champion Hurdle !
:D ^^^^ PLEASE TREAT WITH CAUTION. Poster has previous for misleading.
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