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irishracing
13 Dec 09 18:27
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Jan 07
| Topic/replies: 347 | Blogger: irishracing's blog
Anybody interested in working together for the benefit of both parties? Need someone in the offices to get early prices before the bookmakers begin to sort out their prices.
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Report BJG December 13, 2009 6:57 PM GMT
Wats Limk area? City like?
Report redbait December 13, 2009 7:42 PM GMT
irishracing,
Your only a young lad. Keep the head in the form book and keep going racing and you'll be alright. Dont worry about hooking up with pros for another few years.
Report irishracing December 13, 2009 8:14 PM GMT
How do you know im young. My head is wedged in the book but nice to get the prices at 10 in the morn an get a bet on seen as though when i ring them or use the online service i can get about 15euro "and the rest at SP"
Report slickster December 13, 2009 8:21 PM GMT
arber?
Report redbait December 13, 2009 8:30 PM GMT
I know everything. Son, Im afraid if you are going to arb, you'll get restricted by everyone where ever you go or whatever you do. Keep the head down. I bet you think you know plenty now, but you'll look back on yourself in 5 years time and realise you still had an awful lot to learn. Not knocking you at all, but thats the nature of the game. You'll never stop learning. Dont worry about making your fortune yet.
Report kavvie December 13, 2009 8:36 PM GMT
irishracing, we heard it all before.ur only discovering now what a lot of us have discovered 5/6 yrs ago..bookies dont like losing money and will do everything to stop you taking it off them.
Report irishracing December 13, 2009 8:58 PM GMT
ok. they dont like losing money. How do the good guys get around it???How do ye get ur bets on???
Report kavvie December 13, 2009 9:00 PM GMT
its not easy..and we are not gonna talk about it here id imagine!!
Report hammy December 14, 2009 11:57 AM GMT
They all bet me what I like.
Report kavvie December 14, 2009 12:12 PM GMT
i knew ud show up at some stage hammy!!
Report irishracing December 14, 2009 12:20 PM GMT
Thats because you never win hammy
Report countychampions December 14, 2009 12:50 PM GMT
there only one and dont think he needs you..
Report Win only - Sp only December 14, 2009 1:36 PM GMT
irishracing appears to have this game by the b0llox
Report Blessington December 14, 2009 2:51 PM GMT
Irish Racing, Don't mind the knockers. We always say down here.

"Those who say it can't be done. Should not interfere with the people who are doing it"

Personally I wouldn't worry too much about chasing down the best price.
Its finding the winners which define a winning year from a losing year.
Getting on at best price is just the icing on the cake.

Good Luck with your plan......Bless
Report williw December 14, 2009 2:52 PM GMT
^^^^ APE^^^
Report crouchingtiger1 December 14, 2009 3:55 PM GMT
Blessington 14 Dec 15:51
Personally I wouldn't worry too much about chasing down the best price.
Its finding the winners which define a winning year from a losing year.


I believe that consistently beating the betfair SP is a much better indicator of whether ur going to have a winning year or a losing year?
Report williw December 14, 2009 4:01 PM GMT
^^^^APE^^^
Report crouchingtiger1 December 14, 2009 4:09 PM GMT
constructive...
Report williw December 14, 2009 4:14 PM GMT
Is that kettle i hear whistling chuck.Put brew on love.
Report crouchingtiger1 December 14, 2009 4:21 PM GMT
williw 23 May 08:10
Its not a case of me waking up with a sore head.If you need to know i am returning from work as i am a security guard on nights this week


i've always fancied a job in stickurity, any chance you'd put a word in for me :)
Report Blessington December 14, 2009 4:34 PM GMT
TIGER...Well yeah I wouldn't have much faith in SP these days as the OVEROUNDS have never been higher according to the Racing Post report.

But what I learned its better to stick a extra €10 or €20 on to get the return you want than worry about chasing around the town seeking out best odds.

But of course it goes without saying always take the best odds available where you have a account or shop near by.

My point really is I rather stick another hour into the formbook than chase around hoping than I've got best price on the market, as that I find is the best way to finish your year ahead...Cheers
Report crouchingtiger1 December 14, 2009 4:41 PM GMT
yep that why i deliberately said betfair SP. Guess we're both right in a way, however any of the tipping lines prove how important prices are. They all claim good profits at advised prices but nobody makes them pay long term....I think we all need a couple of those accounts Hammy has
Report kavvie December 14, 2009 5:34 PM GMT
bless i agree with and enjoy ur many posts on here.but to say getting the right odds is not important is astounding to hear from you.ultimately if ur getting 10/20% less than the best morning price you are gonna lost big time.whether you read form or not.there are so many variables to consider.the most important is wheter the horse is fancied or not.if you are getting info from people in the know and get on early you are half way there.
Report countychampions December 14, 2009 9:36 PM GMT
surely bless you price up a race if you put a horse in a evens and books go 2/1 you back it.but if backed into evens you dont cause thats your price..presume this if what young irishracing talking about,even though dont know why he on here looking for anyone ideas on a race in cork {other post} if a pro.surly he just leaves that race alone if cant work out himself...name of the game is value,ie you will win in long tear if back even money shots at 2/1...then again there just my ideas and i havent won in 6 months
Report norekk December 14, 2009 9:44 PM GMT
'the most important (factor) is wheter the horse is fancied or not'

the only important factor is whether the horse is fancied, at the price, by yourself.
Report Cupwinkcook December 14, 2009 9:45 PM GMT
If I was only having 1 or 2 bets in a day, I'd use the extra time to get the value.

A saturday like last saturday, I can see Blessington's point.
Get your picks right, get the value you can get without breaking sweat.
Report crouchingtiger1 December 14, 2009 9:48 PM GMT
to be fair i think what bless is saying is that chasing after best prices is sometimes more hassle than it's worth. If i make something 4 and it's 10 with hills, 8s lads and 7s paddys i'm as well off to target the 7s and 8s cos the 10 is fictional

Obviously hypothetical cos unless someone died and left me an opinion i wouldn't know what price it should be....(nothing like getting ur retaliation in first)
Report countychampions December 14, 2009 9:50 PM GMT
im with you tiger,all the one fire alarms usually go off if walk into a shop
Report Biodiesel December 14, 2009 10:07 PM GMT
few guys on here with big egos
Report thegalwayman December 14, 2009 10:11 PM GMT
No there isn't.
Report Biodiesel December 14, 2009 10:22 PM GMT
ur a oddball with a ego
Report Blessington December 14, 2009 10:23 PM GMT
KAVVIE...Yeah thats what I mean not literally going back and putting the extra hour into the formbook but using the extra hour to check everything matches up with how your thinking. I mean the obivious ones use to be in England checking what a jockey could have ridden in the race or elsewhere instead of coming here etc.

COUNTRYCHAMPION....I just don't believe in this concept of value.
Every bet to me that wins was value no matter what price it won at and likewise when it lost it was a poor bet even if it was potentially a price that could have cleared my losses for the day and got beaten a short head.

You can really see how ridiculous the arguement of value is on the international race day like the Breeders Cup where the European horse could go off at 33/1 and be 8/1- 12/1 with the local bookies here..... How does the value concept add up there.?

Take the 12/1 here and a guy will say you got value. Tell the American you back him at 12/1 and he say you were r0bbed. The same applys to the Hong Kong ,French racing, and Australian Racing too

Nah once they win there always value at any price, its really just about how confident then you feel about the bet. imo.....Cheers
Report Mordin. December 15, 2009 1:08 AM GMT
For me its all about being able to manage your bet in-play. If you back a horse at 10/1 and you think you have value you should be able to profit as the race unfolds in-play.
Report irishracing December 15, 2009 1:59 AM GMT
I was enquiring about the cork race to see if a morning fictional gamble would unfold on one of the unexposed sorts for gambling stables in this dreadful race. And yes i will steer well clear of this event as i am unsure of the ability of the contenders.
Report Win only - Sp only December 15, 2009 7:09 AM GMT
blessington, you must do your brains at this game
Report countychampions December 15, 2009 8:55 AM GMT
agree win only,,,let him off.sure once he backs a winner his happy,,,ask anyone name of game is value and been on at right price,sure bless you keep backing even money winners that were 2/1...if thats what make you happy...best of luck
Report CailiniDeas8 December 15, 2009 11:33 AM GMT
I just don't believe in this concept of value

Just fishing Bless aren't you.

:-)
Report insideinfo December 15, 2009 11:49 AM GMT
My God Blessington even Spoils and Paddy Poor probably lay you a decent bet.
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 12:07 PM GMT
VALUE is the biggest MYTH in betting.

Its a concept thought up by bookies so you all wouldn't lump on the winners and instead would waste your money on chasing long price dreams.

The only value that can be found in every market is on the WINNER
and don't let anyone tell you different......Cheer
Report insideinfo December 15, 2009 12:19 PM GMT
What a complete and utter load of bo11ix Blessington.You are making yourself appear completely clueless.Tell me this,if i were to offer you 4/6 heads on a coin toss,would you have a bet? What about if i offered you 6/4?
Report kavvie December 15, 2009 12:37 PM GMT
theres no need to insult the man.i cant believe hes saying what hes saying tho.
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 1:05 PM GMT
INSIDE...On one toss of the coin I wouldn't let it effect my judgement.

Maybe on 1 million tosses or whatever ever it take to level out the randomess of it I take the 6/4

But on one toss of the coin who somebody prices at 4/6 for heads and 6/4 tails has no effect on what the likely outcome of that toss is going to be.

Likewise betting odds on the likes of horse racing have nothing to do with probabilty in statistics. Their just what a few oddmakers in bookmakers shops think you will take, to place a bet on something other than the favourite to make a book.

Most of them are just drawn up by layers based on the hairs on the back of the neck they have nothing to do with science and probailty. .......Cheers
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 1:14 PM GMT
INSIDE...Here's the best site on the net if you really want to understands odds and probabilty.

http://www.zweigmedia.com/RealWorld/tcfinitep.html

Chapter 7 and 8.

CAILLINI will explain it to you if you have any problems. ;)
Report undertones6 December 15, 2009 1:48 PM GMT
I LOVE THE MONTY HALL SIMULATION BLESS AND CAN JUST ABOUT GRASP IT-IM ON FOR CHANGING THE DOOR EVERY TIME!!!!!!!!!
Report CailiniDeas8 December 15, 2009 1:57 PM GMT
Best site on the net.

Spoken with passion.

:D
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 2:34 PM GMT
UNDERTONE...."Changing doors" Its like reading the story of my Betfair gambling life except it doesn't work for me. I usually should have stayed with the bets I started with. :^0

So I'm still not quite convinced. :(
..............................................................

CALINNI...Will you explain to INSIDEINFO the value in changing doors in the Monty Hall problem.....THANKS. ;)
Report jasonk178. December 15, 2009 2:37 PM GMT
i take it you dont gamble for a living bless??
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 2:51 PM GMT
Probably not any more anyway while Betfair is charging me 23% on my winnings thanks to the Premiun Charges.

Still they changed those rules twice in 14 months no reason to think they won't do it again. :0
Report crouchingtiger1 December 15, 2009 2:52 PM GMT
jeees bless i thought you were joking....

..when offered odds of 6/4 on a coin flip (assuming a straight heat) irrespective of the number of trials to take place you should bet. Further, according to Kelly, you should invest 16.67% of your total bank roll....

To denounce value as a myth and to put above it the ideal of betting winners is altogether flawed and if you are in front in your battle with the bookies now then with better risk and money management you could be a machine!

However my guess would be looking at some of your earlier posts bless on a variety of topics that you are either a) taking he** or b) incorporate value into ur betting subconsciously
Report CailiniDeas8 December 15, 2009 3:02 PM GMT
Certainly a).
Report Doyler1987 December 15, 2009 3:19 PM GMT
Hi guys, you big shrewdies you.

I'm completely new to this betting lark and was wondering if any of you could please explain what "value" is to me? Only everyone seems to use the word but no one understands it..

Where can I find this place where they lay me above the odds please? Is it above the odds? Or is it just what you thinkis above the odds? I want to just bet against the "mugs." I'd love to only bet against the mugs because I'd be ALWAYS backing "value." I'd NEVER back a loser sure.

Even though, I'd really love to be able to back a loser, and then turn to my boyfriend Luca (he lives on the second floor) and say that even though I lost, I got the "value" and therefore I'm right even when I'm wrong. Where I do I sign up to be brainwashed like?

Yours in loving, Marco-co-co-co-co I like to loco.

PS. I was also going to take the p!ss and ask someone to post the coin flip odds but it appears its already been done :^0

Please note: A coin flip has nothing to do with sports betting.

Also note: When youre backing "value" someone else is laying it. Remember that. Its very important. Of course that doesnt matter though, because youre "right," youve got the "value," he bets against me what a mug.. where do I sign up for brainwashing again?
Report insideinfo December 15, 2009 3:32 PM GMT
Seeing as you are obviously so intelligent,please post that again in English Einstein.
Report Santry December 15, 2009 3:33 PM GMT
"Value" to me is simply trying to get the best price available which for a relatively moderate punter like me can be the difference between profit and loss at the end of the year . The firms are so tight and well organised now there isnt a huge difference in the prices offered . Indeed its the same on the track .
An example - I thought Brave Betsy a super bet at 4.2 on here to win at Cork on Sunday . Because I got the price I was able to make a decent profit on the race by laying at 1.3 even though she was well beat in the end .
Anyone that believes "Value" is not important is wrong .It does pay to shop around .
Report Doyler1987 December 15, 2009 3:47 PM GMT
insideinfo, which bit would you like in English?

Santry, I agree with you. It does pay to shop around.
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 4:50 PM GMT
I think the turn around in my betting career was moving away from betting by prices to betting on the best chance in the race.

Now I put the study in and went I come up with the bet it just boils down to how much I'm going to bet on it.

Sure I will seek out the best price available with the accounts I have and the shops around me. But whether I got on at the best price in the market is not something I lose any sleep over.

Likewise if something running against it is a bigger price than I expected and so called VALUE it means nothing to me. In the past I threw away backing countless winners because I was tempted by the big price of a loser instead of the free money available on the short price favourite.

.............................................................................

One of the biggest mysterys to me is why anyone is interested in these so called guarnteed prices why anyone thinks a its something to get JIGGY about getting best price on a horse on the drift is beyond me.

Who gets excited been on a horse thats not even fancied by its connections.

I wonder do these guys ever keep any sort of record on the horses they got increase odds on that drifted. I be amazed if they did and found they actually came out in profit by it.

Personally the bookies that would get me to tranfer my business would be the one who cancelled my bet if the SP ended up bigger than the price I took.... Cheers. :0
Report CailiniDeas8 December 15, 2009 5:14 PM GMT
Another very long post.

Fishing for sure imo.

:-)
Report norekk December 15, 2009 6:41 PM GMT
so you back the favourite in every race then, blessington?
Report kavvie December 15, 2009 6:45 PM GMT
bless im astounded .you are either not serious or you are a professional loser.value is everything.first if you know its fancied.then get the best odds surely?would you back your beloved kerry at 2s with a firm if he was 4s else where you seem to be saying that once you are on a winner thats all that counts?.. if you keep missing prices you end up losing..end of story..its hard enough to make a few bob from it..
Report Cupwinkcook December 15, 2009 7:55 PM GMT
all-ireland is a long term market though

the 3:25 at Fakenham has a limited window of opportunity

let's compare like with like here
Report Win only - Sp only December 15, 2009 8:11 PM GMT
Blesssington 15 Dec 13:07


VALUE is the biggest MTH in betting.

Its a concept thought up by bookies so you all wouldn't lump on the winners and instead would waste your money on chasing long price dreams.

The only value that can be found in every market is on the WINNER
and don't let anyone tell you different......Cheer


pure fking golddust- pmsl
Report reb December 15, 2009 10:35 PM GMT
If you understand and apply the concept of Value in any of your business/betting dealings you should be successful. Save in a boom, spend in a recession.
Report Blessington December 15, 2009 11:52 PM GMT
NOREKK...I back MY favourite in every race not the Bookmakers so called favourite. To me doing the study is more important than chasing down the best price.

.................................................................

KAVVIE. Nah you take the best price available with the bookies you have accountants with or those that have a shop near by.

But if somebody is offereing 12/1 on your fancy and 8/1 is the best of the accountants you have. I wouldn't be put off backing it at 8/1 not if I was satified that was my best choice to be on in that event.

I've know guys to go off in a huff just because they couldn't get the price they wanted though they were confident they found the winner. If I'm confident I've found the winner the best price available with bookmakers who I have accounts with is fine by me.
............................................................................

REB... as DOYLER says define VALUE in a horse race. Its not easy done.

GAA is a great example how many times do you see bookmakers make the wrong one favourite. Often it can just be because pps or the magic sign trading room made the mistake of going for it in the first place. So rather than giving a arbitage opportunity to the punter they all follow suit and hope for the best.

The same applys with horseracing. It doesn't mean just because somebody goes best price on that false favourite you achived VALUE because you got it. As you see in the GAA example its the opposite.

All that tells me is that there's poor market dynamics at work and a lack of choice and opinions operating in that market. Getting that best price had nothing to do with you finding good value its just as much down to lack of opinion makers and lots of false prices around than finding good value imo.

So I stick to my belief if you concerntrate your energy into finding the winner the value will look after itself....

But each to their own...Cheers
Report norekk December 16, 2009 8:13 AM GMT
so if you back YOUR favourite and it's not the market favourite you are in effect backing what other people understand as 'the value'... only you are unwilling to call it that.
Report crouchingtiger1 December 16, 2009 8:28 AM GMT
yeah but what if you made your favourite 7/4 and you can only back it at 4/5?
Plus does he back his favourite in every race, that's a hell of a lot of bets over a year?
Does he have a staking plan or does he have a fixed amount on each one? big bankroll

Bless is talking sh1t and what's more he knows he's talking sh1t, time to draw a line under this particular thread i think
Report Allduckornodinner December 16, 2009 8:34 AM GMT
Crouching is spot on. I don't price up my own tissue but I do pick out the individual horses in the days racing which I fancy and set a minimum price that I would back him at. Take Oscar Whiskey in Newbury today. I am pretty confident he will win and made him an 8/13 on all known form. I checked the betting on here last night and he was trading at 8/11. Happy Days, looks like I will be getting VALUE me thinks. Alas no the overnight kings have backed him right down to 4/9 which means I wont be having a bet unless he drifts significantly. Bless if the horse wins without my money on him at 4/9 then I wont care because it wasn't my price and in the long run you will go skint backing underpriced horses.
Report Doyler1987 December 16, 2009 8:38 AM GMT
Why cant you just accept thats how he bets? Everyone has different styles? Bless isnt obsessed with "value" as you call it. So what? Thats his view.

He speaks sense, if youre closed down by paddys 10/1, Lads going 9/1 and you think the horse will win.. you'll back the 9/1?

The brainwashing with the word is quite scary. When no one actually knows what the word means :0

Seriously question here, if you back a loser? What do you tell yourself? "oh I got value there" or "I was wrong"? I say I was wrong.. people say "I got value" is that an excuse? You still backed a loser. I want to win on every market I bet in. Simple.

Gambling is simple, you pick what you think is the winner, you look at the odds, say to yourself high/low/agree, you back it at best price you can. Simple. Keep life simple. Dont make up words for what you think is a good bet.

Also, "value" is an opinion, everyone has a different opinion, and were rowing over it :^0
Report Doyler1987 December 16, 2009 8:43 AM GMT
Allduckornodinner, you see.. the blokes laying that bet think its "value" too. Its "value" backing to YOU, but not to them.. You think youre right, they think theyre right. Both think they have "value." Therefore theres no such overall thing as "value," its an opinion on an event.

Nice catchy word though, I can see why everyone likes to use it.
Report Blessington December 16, 2009 9:28 AM GMT
DOYER...Sums it up very well.

I back according to Betfair in around 1 - 2 bets a week.

6 - 10 of them would be bets 100 times or more bigger than my smallest one.

If its a year I done 10 big bets I need to win around 7 of them. How that works out usually defines whether I have to worry about Premiun Charges or not in the future.

Most years recently I have been lucky enough to achieve the 7 wins required. As for as I'm concerned my profit and loss has nothing to do with so called VALUE its all based on been prepared for the unexpected and then been able to react quick enough when it happens.

A lots of my bets are done in a fashion a lot of you say is another NO NO.That is I might bet as many as 5 or 6 in a race or event. My preview of the Superbowl back in September was a good example how I operate. But that strategy is mainly used for my bigger bets

I have to go now and won't be around for the rest of the week.
Good Luck with your betting.......Bless
Report redbait December 16, 2009 10:06 AM GMT
As a Betfair customer, this thread makes me smile. Its good to know that not everyone on here is a "Sharp Mind".
Report irishracing December 16, 2009 10:15 AM GMT
Value eg backing 16/1 shots that sp 10/1 will guarantee a profit long term. eg u gain 16 euro every time you loose 10
Report Win only - Sp only December 16, 2009 10:20 AM GMT
not that easy is it really ^
Report hammy December 17, 2009 12:11 PM GMT
I hear the top pro from the Limerick area doesnt bother with the Irish firms anymore.Dinky Doo does most of his betting with the big underworld firms in London now,where they accomodate his lumpy bets.
Report observerirl December 17, 2009 12:55 PM GMT
Underground surely hammy!!
Report hammy December 17, 2009 12:56 PM GMT
Both.
Report yummy December 17, 2009 2:14 PM GMT
lol
Report irishracing December 17, 2009 5:58 PM GMT
WHO IS DINKY DOO?
Report 2 good to be true December 17, 2009 10:14 PM GMT
Hammy,They bet me what I like.
Report Biodiesel December 18, 2009 3:53 AM GMT
was going back apt approach yesterday,if he was 8/11 I would lumped on but at 1/4 it really wasnt worth d risk. Had a good sum on him when he nearly came down at d last in his previous effort.

Backed For Bill yesterday, thought it was a good price "value" 1/2.
Report donegal publican December 18, 2009 8:33 AM GMT
well done bio...
Report galway59 December 18, 2009 9:28 AM GMT
Ya should get pat mustard to do the business for you biodiesel,he really is mustard.He got me on Apt Approach at evens and For Bill at 11/10,cracking stuff.He charges a small fee for his services but he really is a topper.
Report hammy December 19, 2009 12:38 PM GMT
I have heard on the grapevine,Dinky is smashing into Treviso +15.5pts tonight.
Report crouchingtiger1 December 19, 2009 12:39 PM GMT
he's probably heard we're backing the other side hammy!
Report rebel1 December 19, 2009 1:05 PM GMT
smashing into.....lol
Report hammy December 20, 2009 10:20 AM GMT
Well done Dinky.No sweats there.If I hear what he is backing today,I will post it up here after im on too.
Report hilaryjane December 26, 2009 10:14 PM GMT
irish racing park your arse up in the best gambling town in limerick if not the world for a week and learn the ropes from irelands toughest and most fearless gamblers in MEANUS.
Report irishracing December 26, 2009 11:05 PM GMT
Wat HILARYJANE?
Report kavvie December 27, 2009 10:32 AM GMT
what he on about?!?meanus?
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