melbourne cup 4 am flemington

Two ex-Gosden horses for me Middle Earth and Point of Law...Murtagh's ex-trained Zahrann also(can't ignore the Aga's bred ones)

40s is with b356 but should be bigger on here .

Not a sexy price or dark horse obviously, but Bowie's seems to have a right chance.

Point Of Law for me, not big odds but does look very solid.

Also chucked a few shekels each way on the rag Future History with last years winning rider up, has some placed form in decent races although he is no spring chicken.

Some low-stakes darts after a disappointing Monday:-

Enfjaar placed in the Caulfield Cup.

Zakouma by mistake probably. Thought he was lightly-raced but that's because Raceform Interactive doesn't cover New Zealand. But I recall a quote from Neighbours circa 1980-odd about Kiwis in the Melbourne Cup so must take comfort where I can find it.

Wine Dark Sea and am I just favouring British horses? Bad draw.

Onesmoothoperator another Brit; put in a good time in the Northumberland Plate but not much cop down under.

Sons and Lovers is a group horse in a handicap if he stays.

Goodie Two Shoes & Middle Earth are out of Galileo mares (as is Enfjaar).

Tbh I was not planning to get involved but can't sleep.

Point of Law won. Ah well.

wd, Dixie   #skateddeinne

...and lead on

trainer hadde firstte three in it so vwd to Ciaron Maher

Just had a look at the Australian forum for a 'race that stops a nation' thread.

Lo and behold there wasn't one.

Couldn't help but notice though that in the 'Latest Post' column that six of the last seven contributors were Hugo-Hackenbush (3), Rico-Dangleflaps (2) and Sid-Saggysack (1).

L  O  L

Yes, JP was forming an orderly queue.

The Racing Post tells us JP backed:-

Trust Your Instinct 6/1
So You Are 13/1
Goodie Two Shoes 25/1
Soul of Spain 33/1
Zakouma 40/1
James J Braddock 20/1
Hopewell Rock 9/1, 17/2, 8/1

And the winner, Point of Law at 15/2 to win $A2 million.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/melbourne-cup/jp-mcmanus-and-paul-byrne-stun-aussie-bookies-with-a2m-of-melbourne-cup-bets-including-a1m-on-rival-british-runner-a0oBg4J7GzOb/

Whether he came away with much is a separate question as he staked A$1 million on Hopewell Rock alone, to win A$9,600m,000.

Last seen in the Bahamas being drenched in the pouring  rain , Giving it plenty because there was no Brolly wallah provided

the old nanny ;-)03 Nov 26 04:14Joined: 10 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 17,121 | Blogger: the old nanny ;-)'s blog
CHARLIE SOLD THE WINNER OF THE CUP Laugh  meanwhile he aint got an Umberella in the Carribean Laugh


Maybe he could discuss "reparations" for his ruined suit while he's there


That was some performance by Point Of Law considering he is so lightly raced. Only 3 years old and 5 previous starts.

Lead on also tipped him and mentioned runner up Zahraan - hope he had the forecast, paid about 130/1 

Thats a shame, i suppose some will have done a Maher combination on all his runners, think he had 7 in it.

Tricast paid around 1220/1 so would have made a good profit.

Depends how much POL was sold for TON - an "undisclosed sum" they say.


He's just won new connections £2m and presuming he races on will doubtless win them a lot more based on that performance.

Did anyone watch it live at 4am? The winner showed an electric turn-of-foot than Yankee Express would be proud off.

1-2-3 for trainer Maher. But, lucky JP did back the winner Point Of Law winning A$2m. He also backed many duds from O'Brien junior's stable.

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Point Blank: The Bloggerisation of The Great Man
With The New Man on His Side, JP McManus Is Suddenly Doing Everything in Public
Gearóid Norris
Nov 3






READ IN APP

JP McManus and Paul Byrne
JP McManus and Paul Byrne

JP McManus has spent a lifetime in the shadows. It is truly bizarre that the most secretive man in racing is now a selfie camera and some hair gel away from giving the Racing Blogger a run for his money. As one observer noted, “he’s one step away from putting his Cheltenham portfolio on his X account”.

He’s still reserved and softly spoken, but he’s become what can only be described as flash. Gone are the days of private horse purchases with the fee never disclosed, and horses winning with only his inner circle really knowing whether he was on or not. Now it’s all strangely out in the open, from his helicopter entrance to the Goffs sale with an entourage in tow to bid on everything that moved, to the sight of him betting in public this week. What has changed?

In 2025, Racing Blogger was on a whirlwind tour of Australasia and rocked up to the Palladium at Crown for the Calling of the Card. He was reported to have placed two bets, including $1,000 at a “special price” of 9/1 on the eventual favourite Presage Nocturne. Also at the 2025 event was JP McManus’ son Kieran, who backed his father’s horse Goodie Two Shoes to win $1,000,000. Perhaps, like a horse running in the green and gold, Kieran McManus was there for a sighter.

A year later, at this week’s 2026 event, JP McManus made his first appearance at the Calling of the Card. Sitting to his left was Irish Grand National-winning owner Paul Byrne. The two are becoming as intertwined as the strands of a neatly plaited horse’s mane. When the bidding opened on Hopewell Rock, it was Byrne who took the microphone. His pitch was reminiscent of the old “I picked it out of the paper” routine when trying to stick a bookmaker with a live one. Byrne made his bid: “We travelled a long way now and this is the horse, we’ve been studying the form on the way down so we were thinking we might try and break last year’s record and give us a million dollars win.” When questioned later by Frankie Foster about the strategy, The Great Man simply said, “I think he has the best chance.”

JP McManus bets to win, usually with an edge, and it doesn’t really bother him who he beats. Only last April, Paul Byrne himself was on the receiving end of a €100,000 bet on I Am Maximus for the Aintree Grand National at 8/1. While it was never confirmed who placed the bet, one can probably safely assume its origin.

JP McManus has claimed that he is driven by winning and was part of a new generation who believed they could make punting pay. Paul Byrne is the newer model, quickly becoming renowned for attempting audacious gambles. Neither of them drinks. Both men are looking for edges, especially lucrative opportunities where they can bet big with an advantage in hand. JP McManus is a billionaire. Betting $2m (£1.04m) is not going to be life-changing either way, but he’s at the stage where the money doesn’t matter. Getting on with an edge has been the timeless pursuit of McManus and those in his circle, be it in business or betting.

It’s also acknowledged by people in the betting industry that McManus has long since moved beyond mere formbook study or the careful placing of his horses to a more model-based approach. In layman’s terms, JP McManus will have a ‘model man’, someone with a sophisticated algorithm based on an extensive dataset designed to give him an edge over market makers. It is hardly fanciful to assume that he walked into the Crown Casino with his numbers up his sleeve. As the once-prominent bookmaker Ella Martin used to say to John McCririck on Channel 4 Racing, “If I had a price tattooed on my arse, punters would find it.” Here, the prices were out in the open and the event was set up with bookmakers almost obliged to lay massive bets. Quite the opportunity for someone with endless funds and some of the best numbers in the game.

The event also piqued the interest of Australian racing’s most feared punter, Zeljko Ranogajec, who Racenet reported was planning an appearance. Perhaps he too had spotted the weakness in bookmakers having to publicly lay massive bets in an immature market. It was JP McManus who struck, though, and although he broke even on his roughly $2m in bets, the value he got against the closing prices was significant. Ironically, his two worst bets against the closing market were on his own horse, Trustyourinstinct, and the Joseph O’Brien-trained James J Braddock. Perhaps there was a bit of sentiment mixed in with the numbers.

Depending on how you calculate the true closing prices for the Melbourne Cup, the book put together by McManus and Byrne had a positive expected value when the race jumped. The Hopewell Rock bet alone offered a theoretical hedging profit of roughly $280,000 at the off, assuming the entire position could have been laid at the closing price. He was also on strong market movers in So You Are (13/1 into 9/1) and the winner Point Of Law (15/2 into 6/1). That’s quite a good night’s work for the price of having the whole thing blow up on social media and having to speak to Frankie Foster.

Whether this latest change of direction for JP is down to him being on the home stretch and wanting to enjoy it all, or one big promotional tour for the 2027 Ryder Cup at his beloved Adare Manor, is not clear. What is notable, however, is that the appearance of ‘The New Man’, Paul Byrne, seems to have coincided with JP becoming happy to take bookmakers’ pants down in public rather than in the shadows. This year’s jumps season might be a whole lot more interesting if this trend continues. Whether that involves The Great Man turning up at Cheltenham in March with a selfie stick remains to be seen.

trustyourinstinct could run a big race 11th
james j braddock classy but drawn widest of all 7th
goodie two shoes could go close again 22nd
kizlyar could be worth a pop 16th

nobody said it was easy ...