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My son is 38 years old. He came to me and said he'd been watching some videos on betting on horse racing. He's never had any interest before but said he was finding it intriguing and said he while he understood the basics of the mathematics, he couldn't see how anyone could know what to look for to decide what to bet when there are thousands of horses and hundreds of races to look at week in week out. Could I help?
This was exciting for me. Until I tried. I sat down and tried to work out how to teach someone how to be a punter when they are starting with a blank slate. I quickly realised that 52 years of experience is simply locked in and can't be easily communicated. The complexities are vast The "10,000 hours of practice to become an expert" theory suddenly rang true.
So what does this mean? It quickly dawned on me why the sport might be a fast disappearing 20th century phenomenon. We're constantly told that there has never been so much information available. Accessing that information might be easy enough. But using it, when you have no frame of reference, no grounding in a 1970s betting shop, no affiliation to the rhythm and pattern of the season, and no sense of history, let alone an appreciation of the technical variables to be taken into account, must be pretty off-putting to a generation with easy access to a myriad of simpler alternatives and non related screen based entertainment. I feel a bit lost.
This was exciting for me. Until I tried. I sat down and tried to work out how to teach someone how to be a punter when they are starting with a blank slate. I quickly realised that 52 years of experience is simply locked in and can't be easily communicated. The complexities are vast The "10,000 hours of practice to become an expert" theory suddenly rang true.
So what does this mean? It quickly dawned on me why the sport might be a fast disappearing 20th century phenomenon. We're constantly told that there has never been so much information available. Accessing that information might be easy enough. But using it, when you have no frame of reference, no grounding in a 1970s betting shop, no affiliation to the rhythm and pattern of the season, and no sense of history, let alone an appreciation of the technical variables to be taken into account, must be pretty off-putting to a generation with easy access to a myriad of simpler alternatives and non related screen based entertainment. I feel a bit lost.
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ask your son if he believes he has an 'edge'..if he replies no tell him not to bother.
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In The Sign of Four, Holmes asks Watson: "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"
That is all there is to it. Eliminate the impossible. Why does he want to bet? Does he want to win, and tell prople he picked a winner? Does he want to make a profit? You hear about problem gamblers. What that means is problem losers. How do you eliminate the impossible? You can not, but you can identify races where it is almost impossible to pick a winner. You do not bet on those races. I do not bet on jumps or hurdle races, only flat races. I do not bet on handicaps. I do not bet at low prices (e.g. 10/1 or less). You must decide what price is acceptable and not bet if the odds are lower. You must try to get the best price for your selection, and that probably means betting on the exchange. If your son has a compulsive personality, or wants to get paid for no work, betting is not for him. A good indication here is his education and career at work to date. Is he successful? Do not expect a person who is lazy, or unintelligent to suddenly be more successful than thousands of others with more ability. experience, and who work harder. It helps if he has an obsessive interest in a subject others ignore. I have to admit my 34 year work on flat race pedigrees is not a hot topic of conversation. Sorry if you expected me to tell you to road to riches is to bet on number 1 in any races at Uttoxeter or other "systems". |