Arc - Segal

His main thesis is pundits get too worked up about going & draw at the expense of fundamentals like which horse is best.

His other thesis is this year's 2yo fillies are ahead of the colts.

His other other thesis is that young trainers are rising to the top, specifically Joseph & Donnacha in Ireland, and Georges Scott & Boughey in Britain.

Well the first point is idiotic, otherwise all horses would win on any ground which is obviously not true. Daryz was drawn 5, Bay City Roller 15. Are we saying the ground and draw made no difference to the second's chance?

The second point might be true, but we are nearly at the end of the season, and it could be all change next year. So often the O'Brien 2yo's look as if they have a physical advantage. That doesn't often last through the next season.

I don't think Donnacha has had much of a season at all, and nobody trains more losers than Joseph. Who are the other up and comers besides Scott and Boughey?

without the scandalous watering can action & the favourable draw daryz is going off 3/1 imo, more total bs in the rp

“has he been reading the thread on here?”

If he has then it’d explain why he went for Thundering On! That AFTER Bay City!


“expense of fundamentals like which horse is best.”

He had two attempts and didn’t think that Daryz was so he’s contradicting himself.

Surprisingly not many actually went for Daryz.

And I may add that even the AgA connections cited running Varindir because , “One might be drawn 18 the other low.”

It was asked on the thread why run two IF he was head and shoulders above anything else they had.

It was also shown that BEHRAYNA clocked a faster last 3 furlongs in slow race, sprint finish.

Do not get me wrong Daryz is a good horse. A very, very good horse I'm not sure. He's won 2 consecutive ARCs, but no great ARC,

I'd not have gone for Thundering On given the form of the Epsom Oaks (Legacy Link clearly did not stay) and her run back from a rest. Only positive an O'Brien trained her. I'd not even rate Thundering On higher than Diamond Necklace - on merits - whose form was superior, at a slightly shorter trip and a disadvantage stall draw. Soumillon did very well, I believe, much better than Moore would have achieved.

I also firmly believe the stall draw at Longchmap is profound and significant otherwise I think Sea Of Class (15) would have won; Enable (10); Waldgeist (5); Salouen (2). Even Capri (3) finished ahead of his stablemates. Kew Gardens (13) and Magical (18)

I also firmly believe the stall draw at Longchamp is profound

it is

I think some must have watched a different race , Daryz won despite his favourable draw the way the early race panned out. I think also that it was proved that the draw need not be an impediment on good ground as much as on deeper ground , the race was also the only time that was fast on the day.

Tbf to Segal , he is right in terms of the best horse , Daryz would have won wherever he had been drawn imo.

Tbf to Segal, he is right in terms of the best horse, Daryz would have won wherever he had been drawn imo.

agree but his comments are akin to someone who isn't price sensitive imo

“Tbf to Segal , he is right in terms of the best horse”

He was favourite, he had two bites at the Cherry wirh his selections and realised that AFTER the race!

So he was right Delashay and probably right that plenty will spend a lot of time again next year ignoring the obvious.

there isn't anybody in racing who didn't think daryz was the best horse
both before & after

If you read Delashay's  thread you may have a different view wonders, out of over 1,200 posts most ignored Daryz. I think Segal was making the point of over analysis?

out of over 1,200 posts most ignored Daryz

betting is about odds so that doesn't surprise me

He could have put Daryz up at 5’s he tipped Thundering On at single digits a couple above.

It sure took him a while to come to that conclusion.

like you say, he's presumably looked at the race (?), put up 2 against the fav and then afterwards he's changed his tune
...betting shops were full of them 25 years ago

Conveniently after the race had been ran!

No mention of connections running two in case he was drawn 18 as they’d feared.

Unlike Head who said if the horse is good enough it’ll win whatever the draw.

They never sounded confident until he was drawn 5.

Lots of ifs and buts.

The 5’s was there for ages, it slowly contracted after key races.

there was also what you want @ 7/4 near the off having been a bit shorter in the morning & lead up post-draw

Oct 7, 2026 -- 1:51PM, Delashay wrote:

He could have put Daryz up at 5’s he tipped Thundering On at single digits a couple above. It sure took him a while to come to that conclusion.

and that's gone off 11.87

So the 5s reflected the unknown ground and draw Delashay not to mention whether he would actually line up hence why I said I would rather up the stake than take what was not a huge price , maybe his thinking also?

Not my price Wonders, as did the memory of him finding sfa @ Ascot was off putting.

To make things worse for Segal he picked one that wanted extra soft then put up another who’s best performance was on soft the day before when conditions were unlikely to be what she wanted!!

I’d asked if her 21 day race break might come too soon after her last run (as she’d flopped when running again close to the Oaks)

Also said that she’d only beaten Lilt which Adele pointed out on Sunday!

So the 5s reflected the unknown ground and draw

And that goes right against what the chancer is saying! That the best horse wins regardless!

a/p different market not available to volume, plus got to get there etc

Delashay • October 7, 2026 1:58 PM BST
Not my price Wonders

will play if I deem it value just thought the arc was boring race this year & on khazi ground wasn't interested