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As usual tough handicap.
REALIGN is the each-way value choice at 28/1, there is substance behind the price. His recent form figures disguise the fact that he has been operating in some seriously competitive sprint handicaps, including the Wokingham at Ascot, where he finished eighth of 27, and he was beaten only 2¾ lengths when tenth at York last time. The key change is the step up to seven furlongs. He has regularly been doing his best work after being held up over six, and Ascot's stiff seven gives him more time to find his rhythm and deliver that late challenge. With just 9st 1lb on his back, he receives useful weight from several leading contenders, including Thunder Call, Two Tribes and Pellitory. William Haggas is asking a different question of him here, and if seven furlongs brings out the improvement we think it can, 28/1 seriously underestimates his chance and should place.
The case
THUNDER CALL sets a demanding standard and rates the main danger. He has won three of seven and comes here after beating Two Tribes over this very course and distance in September, putting the race away decisively after moving through from just behind the pace. He carries 9st 7lb this time rather than 8st 12lb, so the task is considerably tougher, but there could still be more to come from a three-year-old whose record reads 1-1-3-2-1 from his five starts this season. TWO TRIBES is harder to dismiss than his latest Ayr result suggests. His Ascot record is particularly persuasive: he finished second of 16 over seven furlongs in July before returning to finish third behind Thunder Call in September. Toby Moore's 7lb claim is important here and effectively gives him a much more attractive racing weight.
PELLITORY brings arguably the strongest recent result of the quartet. He landed the 24-runner Ayr Gold Cup only two weeks ago, having previously won over seven furlongs at Haydock and finished third at Goodwood. That sequence shows a horse thriving in competitive handicaps, although tomorrow presents a different challenge: seven furlongs at Ascot carrying 9st 11lb. He was well beaten on his previous visit to this course in June, but his form has moved forward significantly since then. At 16/1, he gives the selection another serious rival, particularly if his Ayr performance can be reproduced over the additional furlong.
The verdict
REALIGN is the Fox's 28/1 swing. Thunder Call has the obvious course-and-distance credentials, Two Tribes keeps producing good efforts at Ascot and Pellitory arrives after a major handicap victory, so there are no illusions about the strength of the opposition. But the price is central to the Realign case. He carries only 9st 1lb, has already shown he can compete in huge-field handicaps and now tackles seven furlongs for the first time in the supplied form. If that extra furlong turns his late-running six-furlong efforts into something more potent, he has the ability to make 28/1 look far too generous.
Good Luck
As usual tough handicap.
REALIGN is the each-way value choice at 28/1, there is substance behind the price. His recent form figures disguise the fact that he has been operating in some seriously competitive sprint handicaps, including the Wokingham at Ascot, where he finished eighth of 27, and he was beaten only 2¾ lengths when tenth at York last time. The key change is the step up to seven furlongs. He has regularly been doing his best work after being held up over six, and Ascot's stiff seven gives him more time to find his rhythm and deliver that late challenge. With just 9st 1lb on his back, he receives useful weight from several leading contenders, including Thunder Call, Two Tribes and Pellitory. William Haggas is asking a different question of him here, and if seven furlongs brings out the improvement we think it can, 28/1 seriously underestimates his chance and should place.
The case
THUNDER CALL sets a demanding standard and rates the main danger. He has won three of seven and comes here after beating Two Tribes over this very course and distance in September, putting the race away decisively after moving through from just behind the pace. He carries 9st 7lb this time rather than 8st 12lb, so the task is considerably tougher, but there could still be more to come from a three-year-old whose record reads 1-1-3-2-1 from his five starts this season. TWO TRIBES is harder to dismiss than his latest Ayr result suggests. His Ascot record is particularly persuasive: he finished second of 16 over seven furlongs in July before returning to finish third behind Thunder Call in September. Toby Moore's 7lb claim is important here and effectively gives him a much more attractive racing weight.
PELLITORY brings arguably the strongest recent result of the quartet. He landed the 24-runner Ayr Gold Cup only two weeks ago, having previously won over seven furlongs at Haydock and finished third at Goodwood. That sequence shows a horse thriving in competitive handicaps, although tomorrow presents a different challenge: seven furlongs at Ascot carrying 9st 11lb. He was well beaten on his previous visit to this course in June, but his form has moved forward significantly since then. At 16/1, he gives the selection another serious rival, particularly if his Ayr performance can be reproduced over the additional furlong.
The verdict
REALIGN is the Fox's 28/1 swing. Thunder Call has the obvious course-and-distance credentials, Two Tribes keeps producing good efforts at Ascot and Pellitory arrives after a major handicap victory, so there are no illusions about the strength of the opposition. But the price is central to the Realign case. He carries only 9st 1lb, has already shown he can compete in huge-field handicaps and now tackles seven furlongs for the first time in the supplied form. If that extra furlong turns his late-running six-furlong efforts into something more potent, he has the ability to make 28/1 look far too generous.
Good Luck
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