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I am probably unusual in putting pedigree at the top in flat races. Racing Post seem to have relegated pedigree in their cards and results with their recent changes and other sources don't include it at alll. My priority list would be Pedigree,Trainer, Owner, Jockey, Breeder in that order.
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What's your MO when looking at the breeder? Looking at how good they are at producing winners? Their preference for particular stallions?
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Like the great Mick Channon once said...My Mother loved Guinness but i cant stand the stuff....Pedigree would not be at the top of my list but is important.
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Ronaldo's brother is no footballer
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John Lennons Brother couldnay sing a note.
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Full siblings on average share 50% of their DNA and the chance of them sharing 100% is the same as them sharing zero.
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my top 4 are
STRIDE LENGTH stride CADENCE DRAW BIAS breaking time from stalls |
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Drift or plunge
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The colour of the silks so owner, trainer and good jockey should come with those. Early season foaling date.
As I only play listed and group races they tend to be won by those with the best connections. |
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Oh and a well named one. I told the story about how my dad called a tipping lime from CeeFax back in the day for a laugh, they tipped TROTTERS BoTTOM
 It lost but was never going to be good with a name like that! |
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I tend to bet horses that have run no more than 3 times so pedigree is vital. I keep a spreadsheet with the results from all stallions for GB flat races and it is not the most expensive ones that win the most. Justify produced the Royal Lodge winner today and when he sires a winner it is usually a good one but he has had just 8 GB wins in 2026 so hardly a wild success. Cotai Glory on the other hand is having by far his best ever season with 90 GB wins. Havana Grey continues to be the most impressive sire of all.
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And how much are you losing so far Sage?
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Interesting points that you’ve made, if all the above are to your liking market support must come into it for you Sage as you follow Balding?
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1. Race distance
2. Pedigree 3. Class Imo too many horses are run over the wrong trip. |
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Ground, distance & draw with the obvious of form etc, pedigree does not even become a factor the majority of the time, ever since Red Rum!!
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I do follow Balding but he has a much better strike rate second time than first. The market is interesting but to make a profit you need a few longer priced winners. Acey, I am £5 up this month on the Premier league tipping comp and have been top of the Div 1 table a couple of times. That is not in itself a measure of success as it is easy to pick 5 winners out of 6 choices and put the loser in the comp. And vice versa of course as King of Berkshire proved my only winner on Thursday.
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Top of Division 1 Sage?.....Let me know when you Win The Premier Division.
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No mention of the market? So often the biggest guide when trainer/jock comments would send you in the opposite direction.
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the market can too often lead you in the wrong direction. It is dominated by form ratings, jockey form etc which can be significant but often isn't.
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Anyone following Balding/Joseph O'Brien with no inside knowledge would need a massive amount of luck. You can't just avoid 50-70 losers every fortnight. Impossible.
The tipping competition is a bit of a joke. If you put those short priced selections up - as so many do - you would be laughed off a newspaper within days. People spend three weeks trying to stay in the division, and then 'give it a go', if they are safe, over the last few days. So much racing is rubbish so it's slanted towards those who have some understanding/follow the low grade/all weather stuff. As there are no each ways you could get three 16/1 seconds, but you would be trailing behind someone who puts up three 1/5 winners. A total nonsense if you are trying to produce the better tipster. Why not give someone a bank, and five bets to play, however they want, over the month. Biggest profit wins. Hard to believe the results would be the same? |
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Yes but you try Winning it you have to start at the very bottom its a very hard slog.
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Yes it is Acey. You asked if I made a profit and I gave you an answer. I bet mostly for fun so avoid odds on shots.
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Orthodox has just illustrated why I love Havana Grey. They win a lot of tight finishes.
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Add speed figures to my earlier post, so:-
1. Race distance 2. Pedigree 3. Class 4. Speed figures |