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27 Jul 26
11:30
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Date Joined:
10 Jan 02
Seems a silly question with an obvious answer.
This question was asked to 46,000 adults and 73% said they'd take the £50k (6% couldn't decide) so of those that expressed a preference it was 77.5%.
Men were 63% and women were 82%
Only 11% of over 65s went with the coin flip (even more irrational)
28% of 16-24s did so as you get older you are less likely to take risks
Apparently we are hard wired to take the £50k. We feel losses more acutely than gains. (that's not surprising, I would too, but in this example it's winning 19 times as much)
What does that all mean?
This question was asked to 46,000 adults and 73% said they'd take the £50k (6% couldn't decide) so of those that expressed a preference it was 77.5%.
Men were 63% and women were 82%
Only 11% of over 65s went with the coin flip (even more irrational)
28% of 16-24s did so as you get older you are less likely to take risks
Apparently we are hard wired to take the £50k. We feel losses more acutely than gains. (that's not surprising, I would too, but in this example it's winning 19 times as much)
What does that all mean?
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Replies: 46
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Would you choose £50k over a 50/50 chance of £1m?
quite simply it depends on your own financial position in life... if i offered you 10/1 a coin toss and you had £100,000 in the bank how much would you risk? |
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all of it (if hypothetical and ruling out the possibility of a scam)
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For people with nothing (especially pensioners) the state will step in. Get £50k and loads of people suddenly lose benefits, before they spend it and are back on benefits. No brainer to go for the £1m
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With no state safety net and facing starvation, then I would think twice.
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If you take those that cultivate DLA from under 16, PIP from 16, they'll get student 'loans' that will never be paid off, and those with PIP don't have student loans deducted from their UC payouts. They'll get their rent paid for life. Plenty of kids too, now Labour have dumped that particular disincentive.
As long as they reach state retirement age, they'll be extracting much more than £1million from taxpayers (in today's money)! Of course, DLA and PIP aren't means tested, but there are an abundance of real life examples where folk in line for inheritance would rather not get it, in order to stay eligible for UC. For those not milking the welfare system, then obviously, as alluded to earlier, your current financial position is pivotal. There are lots of examples actually where a huge windfall is a bad thing for an individual not used to being affluent. Lots of begging family and friends, change of lifestyle etc. The maths is self explanatory. |
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Oh, and how could I forget, UC and PIP is tax free.
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I will. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Simple!
The money will be invested for several decades eg investment fund globally to have an assured return of £1m or more. However, I'll buy a 3% share of the breeding rights of Frankel for £50k in an extraordinary exception from the present shareholders. But, no Betfair or follow the betting selections of the bookie sharks at the Racing Post. And, no Coolmore! |
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theres plenty of people give up a gyarenteed 3,5,10,20 grand etc on the moring radio quiz ,buying a tkt to win a million instead, which usually ends up with around 20 in the draw
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i,m a regular 20 quid punter but always amazed how many non unter who would dream of having so much as a quid on a horse will buy golden ball blind card tkts in an all in all out for 20,30,50 quid to win a rolex,ps5 etc with 60 ,120,240 tkts old, it would never cross my mind to have a go
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we had a lad in the steelworks ,went on 24/7 for donkey,s yrs about big oker,casino wins,went to vegas regular ,aid to get in decent size oker schools and won a few blah,blah, got on DEAL or NO DEAL and got to play, wenew he, was going on but it was recorded and moths before it came on tv but he didnt tell anyone how he did,but when it came on he give it the big i am poker,uting,casino,playing the tables in vegas etc,and after a couple of rounds THE BANKER offered him about 3 grand and he bit his arm off in seconds,
 ,he got absolutely battered at work for months,he was picking up over 4 grand a month in the steelworks , the 2 till 10 shift used to have it on in their cabin at afternoon tea break and watched it together they couldnt believe all pished themselves laughing , THE BIG I AM,became THE BIG I ARNT in one tea break |
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Implausible wood tech a grand......all the gear and no idear
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If I was earning £50k or clearing £50k a year, and will be earning the same amount for the next 20/25 years I'll go for a 50/50 chance of winning £1m. However, if I was only earning £10k a year with a young family - a mortgage or not - I'll take the £50k prize without a moment's hesitation.
Valuation and evaluation go side by side in most circumstances. But, no dodgy dealing eg drug or criminality. |
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"For people with nothing (especially pensioners) the state will step in" What old people want quite importantly these days ( other than pension ) is housing benefit. Over 16k savings = zero housing benefit. Lose 10's of thousands gambling to go under this figure guess what they will say.
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Well pensioners have to qualify for PC to get housing benefit. ie have no pension whatsoever other than the state pension. what an incentive from the State to save for your old age. Not.
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If you get full state pension you get zero PC.
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yep, well there's an incentive not to qualify. PC is a huge gateway benefit. This is not a new concept that all of the incentives are inside out. Those who put the least in get the most out. Anyone with a very modest private pension pot will get jack all on top of sp.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory
This explains it. |
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If you were earning £10k a year (working part time) with a young family you might easily be getting £25k a year in benefits most of which you'd lose if you won £50k. You are back on benefits in 2 years. You'd be incredibly stupid to take the £50k.
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Saving for your pension is now compulsory if you are in employment (as it should always have been)
This is a chance to win £1m at amazing odds. The chance won't come along again. That's how I see it. |
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Wrong, workplace pensions are not compulsory.
And getting rid of £34K without breaching DoC is reasonably simple. In fact it's within the law to pay off debts with capital. |
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"Lose 10's of thousands gambling to go under this figure guess what they will say."
You are not losing £50k so they won't say anything. |
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Employers contributions are compulsory Cider
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It's only additional contributions above the minimum threshold that are not
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Compulsory to be offered. Employees can opt out. From memory, they have to opt out every three years.
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Shocking indictment of the education system. You might think that utility plays a part, but 50k isn't really that much money and def not life changing (except for a few), so it is far more likely that responders don't realise that they are giving away 450k.
A question that separates the men from the boys (Kerry Packer style) is "would you take £5m or toss for £100m". |
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regardless this wasn't meant to be about politics, but about opportunity and risk perception.
The poor have often less to lose, so the argument that the decision should come down to wealth or earnings is built on shaky foundations imo. Old people are a lot wealthier than young ones, but young people are more prepared to take the opportunity. |
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There are plenty of studies around this, as you alluded to, humans are not hard wired for risk or delayed gratification. They do experiments with kids, put a sweet in front of them and say if they leave it there, they can have another four. The big majority will eat the single sweet. Paraphrasing, but that's the gist.
Very few humans plan for the long term future, in my experience that is not necessarily correlated with intelligence. |
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I know it's easy to say but I would take the coin flip and I am very surprised the results aren't more in favour of that option and I could definitely do with 50k, it doesn't seem enough to even make it a tricky decision.
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Everyone on here is engineered towards gambling. It's not a random sample. I personally wouldn't read into the results a lack of numeracy. More of an inclination not to be perceived or viewed as greedy.
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ie if it happened for real, and televised, it would be even more tilted to £50K. imo
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you only have to watch millionaire etc quiz shows on tv,too see those already doing ok/well heeled far more likely to have a unt at /,s than those not so well off.although maybe be cleverer students,graduates etc
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It would be interesting to know at what amount it changes from more people not taking the flip to more people taking the flip .
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If it was phrased 50k or a toss for 50k a year for 20 years, I think that paradoxically more people would flip.
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the best WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE CLIP
was the american fella who had all his lifelines left for the million $ ? and honed his dad and the compere said YOUR SON NEEDS YOUR HELP ON THIS ? the lad said , HI DAD RELEAX I DONT NEED YOUR HELP JUST RANG TO SAY I,M ABOUT TO BECOME A MILLIONAIRE |
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purler
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from memory you lose benefits if you have over 16 grand in capital...certainly was the case years ago.
id go for the million, penniless or in clover...of course, im in clover lol, so easy for me to say. |
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Back pain and mental elf.
They all seem to struggle through the three year party at uni though :) |
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Under the Tories. Which of course they threw petrol on, deliberately scaring people and letting people off work for two years whilst paying them.
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To be fair, if I was one of these molly coddled kids now, I wouldn't much fancy doing a mundane job after being let off until I was 22. Not when a lot of the adults at the time got money for nothing when my life was ruined by politicians.
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