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Rix made his name as the curator of the Betting Bureau in the Racing Post, a page at the cutting edge of data-driven analysis for the modern punter, pioneering the use of speed figures in an age when they were seen by some as infernal wizardry. So it comes as a stark reminder of the rapidly evolving nature of the beast to hear him dismiss what was once his stock-in-trade as a thing of the distant past, from dark art to the Dark Ages.
"Speed figures were hard to access and you had to really work to find them," he explains. "Your average punter wouldn't have had access to them, so that was always our starting point, but as with every edge it gets eroded, and you have to find another one that nobody else knows about, because to win you need to know something other people don't.
"Speed figures were hard to access and you had to really work to find them," he explains. "Your average punter wouldn't have had access to them, so that was always our starting point, but as with every edge it gets eroded, and you have to find another one that nobody else knows about, because to win you need to know something other people don't.
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Erm, speed figures were urine-easy to find in the mid-90s because they printed them in the Racing Post.
And the Life, and Raceform, and presumably also Timeform.
And the Life, and Raceform, and presumably also Timeform.
... and even the Daily Star, which used the great Ken Hussey's speed figures (Split-Second).
The edge with weight-adjusted speed figures comes from understanding how they are calculated, so you can calculate your own and (importantly) understand their limitations alongside their benefits. If you can do that, they still present an edge, because the calculations involve arithmetic as well as basic algebra - skills very few people are prepared to learn or use these days. And you can't run an automatic programme to calculate them either. (Well, you can, but you won't end up with anything useful; you will just just impressive-looking lists of numbers with no idea whether they reflect what happened on the track.)
The edge with weight-adjusted speed figures comes from understanding how they are calculated, so you can calculate your own and (importantly) understand their limitations alongside their benefits. If you can do that, they still present an edge, because the calculations involve arithmetic as well as basic algebra - skills very few people are prepared to learn or use these days. And you can't run an automatic programme to calculate them either. (Well, you can, but you won't end up with anything useful; you will just just impressive-looking lists of numbers with no idea whether they reflect what happened on the track.)
*you will just generate impressive-looking lists of numbers with no idea whether they reflect what happened on the track
"to win you need to know something other people don't"
I'm really not sure about this truism. If you back enough winners you will win.
Winners in your betting portfolio have two characteristics, quantity (strike rate) and quality (price). Both are interlinked. If your strike rate is high enough the prices don't need to be, and vice versa.
Its understanding and exploiting that balance that determines whether you will win or lose. If that counts as "knowing something others don't" then fair enough.
But it's nothing to do with having a unique insight on the specifics of an individual horse's merit. If you make profit by backing enough short priced favourites that win, what do you "know that others don't"?
In the end its about value, and having the skill to recognise that is a function of mathematics not necessarily magic beans, (although obviously if you do have some, then they will do no harm).
I'm really not sure about this truism. If you back enough winners you will win.
Winners in your betting portfolio have two characteristics, quantity (strike rate) and quality (price). Both are interlinked. If your strike rate is high enough the prices don't need to be, and vice versa.
Its understanding and exploiting that balance that determines whether you will win or lose. If that counts as "knowing something others don't" then fair enough.
But it's nothing to do with having a unique insight on the specifics of an individual horse's merit. If you make profit by backing enough short priced favourites that win, what do you "know that others don't"?
In the end its about value, and having the skill to recognise that is a function of mathematics not necessarily magic beans, (although obviously if you do have some, then they will do no harm).
I remember him plastering the sporting life with graffiti like advertising……
You did have a edge with speed figures you just needed to use or utilise the right ones, it was just easier to whittle em down to 2 or 3 that could win, so where they gone now, things change they never moved the rails years ago most were concrete, everyday now they move the rails by like 12 m or 20m so is that accurate that’s reported everyday, erm no,
I give Henry credit he did change the tipping game for the worse, it was considered standard for profits on 1 point = £100 everyone used that so mr punter knew where he stood, deviously Henry changed to boost profits when he went private he used 1-10 points £100 a point, that’s a massive difference, so tippers were restricted to £100 max Henry was 1000 max, everyone was restricted to reporting previous profits as proofed to that £100 max at a massive disadvantage in advertising to Henry’s figures, most beat him on profits to the normal staking as used for years but the figures and staking told a different story and mr punter was miss led and he made plenty with that one, he changed it forever and for the worse and it’s why he could report the big
profit figures, it’s odd I came across a old paper a few weeks ago and there it was in all its glory
I give Henry credit he did change the tipping game for the worse, it was considered standard for profits on 1 point = £100 everyone used that so mr punter knew where he stood, deviously Henry changed to boost profits when he went private he used 1-10 points £100 a point, that’s a massive difference, so tippers were restricted to £100 max Henry was 1000 max, everyone was restricted to reporting previous profits as proofed to that £100 max at a massive disadvantage in advertising to Henry’s figures, most beat him on profits to the normal staking as used for years but the figures and staking told a different story and mr punter was miss led and he made plenty with that one, he changed it forever and for the worse and it’s why he could report the big
profit figures, it’s odd I came across a old paper a few weeks ago and there it was in all its glory
is that like advertising or like graffiti?
a rare example of the why punctuation is sometimes necessary
a rare example of the why punctuation is sometimes necessary
KA - good point - the variation of course configuration means standardising times becomes difficult. I suspect variable watering does the same. It possibly goes some way to explaining my usual question about why different people's speed figures don't converge. The data should be objectively optimised over time, but clearly that doesn't happen. Andy Beyer had it easy!
Busyfool 14 Jul 26 11:50
is that like advertising or like graffiti?
a rare example of the why punctuation is sometimes necessary
Sorry headmaster lol…..
I definitely meant graffiti…..they all resemble graffiti tbh…..imv….
I wonder how many have shown profit for customers over the piece,decades ?
0 in my opinion….
is that like advertising or like graffiti?
a rare example of the why punctuation is sometimes necessary
Sorry headmaster lol…..
I definitely meant graffiti…..they all resemble graffiti tbh…..imv….
I wonder how many have shown profit for customers over the piece,decades ?
0 in my opinion….
steerforth -- Andy Beyer did indeed have it easy with fixed rails, electronic timing, and meetings that went on for weeks rather than the single day which is normal here.
But also he gets far too much credit here since Nick Mordin wrongly said Beyer invented speed figures. What Beyer did was publish his method which was then promulgated here by Mordin and taken up by lots of then-upcoming pundits. Incidentally, without weight adjustment because Donald Trump has banned gravity in America.
Long before Beyer, Phil Bull was selling speed figures back in the 1930s, and even in the Victorian literature there are references to the time test, which is presumably the same thing.
But also he gets far too much credit here since Nick Mordin wrongly said Beyer invented speed figures. What Beyer did was publish his method which was then promulgated here by Mordin and taken up by lots of then-upcoming pundits. Incidentally, without weight adjustment because Donald Trump has banned gravity in America.
Long before Beyer, Phil Bull was selling speed figures back in the 1930s, and even in the Victorian literature there are references to the time test, which is presumably the same thing.
wasnt RIX part owner of that nichols sprinter GIFT CARD or something and in with the early veitch gang so had access to what 99% of punters dont have INSIDE INFO
Yes but most of the time the info turns out to be wrong….
There is a World of difference between info (mostly useless) and inside info
Gift Horse ridden by the great kieren fallon in stewards cup needed ridden with balls of streel according to Nicholls.
How did he die
How did he die
Mordin is/was a legend in my book. Some wacky theories but always interesting to read. Remember backing Oiseau Du Nuit to win the 2m Hcp Chase at Cheltenham at 40-1 because of a positive write-up he gave it in his Irish Field Column after he won a 2m Hcp Chase at Donny is a blistering time.
Agreed. Mordin was the most consequential racing writer probably since Phil Bull. He was entertaining, he was creative, but above all he convinced people that racing is a rational game that can be beaten.
Rix was good, obviously best mates with Collier who went west?
Gift Horse under Fallon, had a really big bet at 8s put an i/r lay at evs, which was untouched, balls of steel indeed.
Sure involved with Ramsden early sending well handicapped, wrong trip horses to Brian Ellison.
Like Mordin, Nick Fox and Hugh Taylor nowadays, he did plenty to get people thinking about racing form.
Gift Horse under Fallon, had a really big bet at 8s put an i/r lay at evs, which was untouched, balls of steel indeed.
Sure involved with Ramsden early sending well handicapped, wrong trip horses to Brian Ellison.
Like Mordin, Nick Fox and Hugh Taylor nowadays, he did plenty to get people thinking about racing form.
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