Saturday's sizzling forecast

We go to the 5.55 at Nottingham. A 3 horse race 2-5 2 40. We don't plough in on the 2-5 shot. We back the 1 to beat 3 forecast ensuring we maximise our returns. Should get 4-7 odd rather than 2-5. What else can it be? Don't be afraid to follow me in...