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I always look for the rags with apparently 'no chance' in big races...especially when it's telegraphed that the hot favourite has doubts about it so I noticed that
Calandagan (who's as good as ANYTHING on the planet...and easily the best horse in the race) is surprisingly weak in the market having been as short as 11/8
and now available at 3.8 on here, but he's been as high as 7.4 for £530 - that is very telling. So maybe he's vulnerable in not being at full-pelt and using this
race as a stepping stone to the King George...and he's likely to be primed for a late Summer/Autumn campaign with many International targets on his agenda.
See The Fire has been nibbled at from 66/1 and is now a best-priced 40/1 which is still terrific value in my view, even though she has question marks against her
over a C&D which mightn't play to her strengths, but we don't yet know if those factors could even eke out a bit of improvement...just like her dam (Arabian Queen)
who pulled off one of the most bewildering shocks I've EVER seen when she downed Golden Horn, taking his unbeaten record at York.
At her peak of 119, she's only 3lb wrong with 2nd fav Jan Brueghel - it's a competitive field though NOT outstanding in depth so I really do think she's got every chance of
at least sneaking the frame as this is the annually the best opportunity to win a domestic all-aged Group One against colts - I did hear that this race was the goal
after her she won the Middleton, though it'd be interesting to know if they'd planned that in early Spring, as being a comparatively weak all-aged G1 it would make a lot of
sense to have been her season's prime target.
Maybe she's most suited to 10f just as her dam was and I couldn't effusively say she's crying out for the trip, but at a massive price, I don't mind paying to find out.
There might be a weak pace which'd help her get home and Epsom isn't the most stamina-sapping track.
She's kicked off the season with two from two, isn't ground dependent and as an older mare, the improvement I'd be hoping to see has been witnessed numerous
times over the decades with some great performances (way above previous bests) from progressive fillies - the first trio that spring to mind are Via Sistina, Solemia,
& the great though unheralded All Along.
Calandagan aside, she is NOT outclassed and I really do believe she's an excellent sporting each way bet who could capitalise & pounce on a couple of superior rivals
who undoubtedly won't be at a peak yet, whereas she might well be! Balding's spoken positively about her progress recently and has no fear of taking on the colts over
middle distances...so does he that mean he beleives she's got the stamina for 12f?
Someone's slightly interested in her on here besides me as she's a paltry 42 but she's been 150 - I wish I would've been quicker on the draw
I'm late to the party but I'm in the queue with hopeful tenners at 90 & 110 - any big-balled dissenter think I'm full of shít fancy laying that?
It's not the most cogent case for a rag but after the race...this speculative, optimistic summary could all fall into place and you lot'll be thinking you have a new Messiah
Calandagan (who's as good as ANYTHING on the planet...and easily the best horse in the race) is surprisingly weak in the market having been as short as 11/8
and now available at 3.8 on here, but he's been as high as 7.4 for £530 - that is very telling. So maybe he's vulnerable in not being at full-pelt and using this
race as a stepping stone to the King George...and he's likely to be primed for a late Summer/Autumn campaign with many International targets on his agenda.
See The Fire has been nibbled at from 66/1 and is now a best-priced 40/1 which is still terrific value in my view, even though she has question marks against her
over a C&D which mightn't play to her strengths, but we don't yet know if those factors could even eke out a bit of improvement...just like her dam (Arabian Queen)
who pulled off one of the most bewildering shocks I've EVER seen when she downed Golden Horn, taking his unbeaten record at York.
At her peak of 119, she's only 3lb wrong with 2nd fav Jan Brueghel - it's a competitive field though NOT outstanding in depth so I really do think she's got every chance of
at least sneaking the frame as this is the annually the best opportunity to win a domestic all-aged Group One against colts - I did hear that this race was the goal
after her she won the Middleton, though it'd be interesting to know if they'd planned that in early Spring, as being a comparatively weak all-aged G1 it would make a lot of
sense to have been her season's prime target.
Maybe she's most suited to 10f just as her dam was and I couldn't effusively say she's crying out for the trip, but at a massive price, I don't mind paying to find out.
There might be a weak pace which'd help her get home and Epsom isn't the most stamina-sapping track.
She's kicked off the season with two from two, isn't ground dependent and as an older mare, the improvement I'd be hoping to see has been witnessed numerous
times over the decades with some great performances (way above previous bests) from progressive fillies - the first trio that spring to mind are Via Sistina, Solemia,
& the great though unheralded All Along.
Calandagan aside, she is NOT outclassed and I really do believe she's an excellent sporting each way bet who could capitalise & pounce on a couple of superior rivals
who undoubtedly won't be at a peak yet, whereas she might well be! Balding's spoken positively about her progress recently and has no fear of taking on the colts over
middle distances...so does he that mean he beleives she's got the stamina for 12f?
Someone's slightly interested in her on here besides me as she's a paltry 42 but she's been 150 - I wish I would've been quicker on the draw
I'm late to the party but I'm in the queue with hopeful tenners at 90 & 110 - any big-balled dissenter think I'm full of shít fancy laying that?
It's not the most cogent case for a rag but after the race...this speculative, optimistic summary could all fall into place and you lot'll be thinking you have a new Messiah
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I am only surprised that you have not slated Hendo for not declaring CH,herbievore
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good luck herbie .........never be afraid to back a big priced un.
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did this method get ewe wealthy dave?
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You are a clueless imbecile Hammerhead
The reply I've just posted has had to be inspected by the moderators (WTF is going on there?) and you're not worth wasting even more of my time on by responding to your relentless bóllóx...so it might appear later - I very much doubt there'll be anything remotely constructive if/when you do as there NEVER is. You're just obsessed with INFECTING as many threads as you can. PS - Foyles...you think it has any chance at all? |
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Herbievore has a rather inflated opinion of himself.
My post was light hearted as you haven't lectured Hendo for a while |
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yes herbie why not good form in top company not that much to find usually consitent ,the only downside is that her trainer says in the atr tour quotes " she will be left in the coronation cup as a possibility ,it is likely she will wait for the princess of wales ,however we will consider the coronation cup as a [possibility depending on the forcast.good luck herbie good write up.
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Thanks FW - I hadn't seen those comments.
I do think that early 7.4 for Calandagan is utter madness, so as a value seeker, I think the front pair could be turned over...as someone know something the rest of us aren't privy to. |
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calandagan is doubtful if there is soft in the going description according to graffard
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She been beaten by the colts twice last year, this won’t be a stroll and sprint like at York.
They will stretch the stamina of the French colt should show. |
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coolmore likely to run lambourne jan b and possibly illinois ...........can see whats gonna happen pace wise .
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They sponsor the race too.
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yes aob said both are being trained for it...............could be a very small field
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Are you thinking Lambourn might try to turn Jan over?
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Have Illinois take him along, take over with Jan behind and Mikel sat watching him, whilst he slips?
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it looks like plan a and plan b if calandagan is running ,lambourne race fit makes the running at a strong gallop to take the sting out of the others, if lambourne falters jan b or plan b stays on . a likely scenario imo.
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If we can work that out no excuses for the jocks in this!
 Then again! |
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I agree. Lambourn will most likely make the running of the AOB's trio, assuming he runs 3. Illinois will tuck in behind Lambourn, with Jan the last of his trio; the stamina of Calandagan will be tested to the hilt esp on soft ground, assuming Calandagan shows.
The weather forecast is for more precipitation on friday and saturday. Thursday maybe the exception. |
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calandagans main target is the king george ,jan brugel and lambournes main target is the coro cup ,graffard said on april 16th in dont know if we wil go back to epsom .
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doubt i will be betting in this race not enough runners .
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FW - is that right about soft ground for Calandagan?
If so...that's ridiculous! He's got plenty of top form on a softer surface - even heavy! |
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The AoB’s are all entered for the GRAND PRIX DE SAINT-CLOUD which will be the prep for the KG should Cala miss this.
If they go easy on one of the A or B then they might go to France to take him on first up. Murphy is already booked for Scott’s horse not See the Fire OP, might be a hint of not showing. They felt the climb at Epsom tested him over this distance on softer ground OP. |
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Delashay - well spotted mate
 You've probably saved me a score as some greaser would've Henry-Hoovered it all up once they found out (before I did) that she wasn't gonna run - that's obviously not a positive sign as Oisin's often said how much he likes the mare. |
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Is anyone brace enough to snag £70 at 3.5 for Calandagan? The probable soft ground and 1st run of the season may not see him in good stead for this tough contest.
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I think Calandagan pisses up - he's a better horse than when touched off in this last year.
PS - he won the Sheema Classic at the Dubai World Cup meeting so he should be straight enough. I've noticed over the decades with many of these classy 5&6yo globetrotting sorts that they seem to be in their comfort zone at both 10f & 12f (like most of the sprinters switching between 5f & 6f) and I suspect Calandagan's of that ilk such as Pilsudski, Singspiel, Daylami et al so I wouldn't be too concerned about the trip on a softer surface as I think he'd devour Jan Brueghel this time. He won very smoothly at Meydan. |
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If I recall a good few "judges" were saying Calandagan may need the run lto. ??
Good luck Herbie ( not that I think you will need it ) |
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This is from Dubai last run. It tells you what they want to avoid.
Aga Khan’s French racing manager Nemone Routh : “There has been a lot of rain and I don’t think that will bother Calandagan, though I don’t expect it will become really deep ground like we have in Europe, |
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I wasn’t impressed with his run there and wrote this, ( maybe he was tired from Japan)
Delashay • March 28, 2026 6:07 PM GMT Looking back at last years result Giavellotto got closer to Calandagan tonight was giving him a 1lb last year too. I’d be wary of short odds for him, people have sussed to get first run, his acceleration isn’t quick it’s long, takes time to reel them back, like Kaplana.. I noticed this last night, MEYDAN (UAE) 2 2.410m It could be argued that if the track was 10 meters shorter over 1m 1/2 in Dubai that West Wind Blows might have held on for the win. After the A Team type plan hatched last weekend at Chantilly you can bet they’ll employ the tactics to beat him with all the information available to them on past runs. I love the horse by the way and was in his camp last year when lots were questioning his resolution after Epsom. |
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Ah well...can't win 'em all
I think See The Fire will have to wait another year before getting a similar opportunity to strike against superior colts at G1 level when they mightn't be fully primed...and she'd have a fitness advantage. As I said...I wouldn't have been that confident of her ability to perform at a peak over the C&D though if I could've established that it was a long-range plan from connections (not just after York) that would've given me more optimism. I just thought it was an interesting angle that made a lot of sense and hindsight after the event is so easy to explain. Spotting tremedous value is when you can anticipate the not-so obvious beforehand and in my view she certainly was that! I would've been very confident of the filly snatching the frame at least if she would've lined up. PS- thanks Delashay for saving me £20 as I would've been delighted with my bets at 110...and than gutted to see her withdrawn once I opened the RP. |
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Delashay - I recall that ludicrous question about whether he 'wanted it' enough after a string of seconds
and to be fair to him, there were always valid reasons as I don't think he shirked any of those defeats. Jan Brueghel has a touch of the "Giant's Causeway" tenacity about him as he certainly looks resolute - I'd always give a second chance to any horse underperforming at Epsom. There was zero shame in his length defeat to City Of Troy with the subsequent Arc winner behind him. Aidan's colt was just a slightly better 3yo but I've little doubt Calandagan has improved past him if he'd stayed around. In the Champion Stks...the likeable & consistent Anmaat chinned him (he's always been underestimated but you could set your clock by him) after Calandagan (as well as poor Economics) didn't get the clearest of runs. He also succumbed to a top Jáp horse in a very fast time over 12f on his seasonal debut but despite the form figures not looking too encouraging, I saw no reason to doubt that he was the genuine article...before he stepped on the gas and romped to 5 consecutive G1 wins, showing the world what I thought he was capable of after his Royal Ascot runaway victory at 3yo. There's NEVER been a question for me and it's probably only his moody reputation before he was gelded that's still in some people's heads as he's very straightforward...and on ratings, the best European horse we've seen since Baaeed. |
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Glad that you saved a few quid Herbie and the disappointment of a non runner.
I love horses like these and all the ones that you mentioned such as Amnaat, they are admirably consistent and for me ratings aren’t everything. These that have a high win to run ratio and a place record of never or hardly ever finishing out of the first three are what most of us would all love to own. Plus being able to travel them too and take in races all over the world! I wonder how much rain they are getting there? Found these extra quotes over lunch that aren’t on the RP. “The horse worked yesterday and is in great form, but we have always said we didn't really want to run him in this race if the ground got too soft,” said Routh. “It's not because he doesn't handle soft ground, but it would become a real test of stamina and I think that the track would really find him out. Francis-Henri [Graffard] is going to wait to see what is going to happen over the next 24 hours and call the track. There is obviously no decision yet and we'll have to see how much rain falls.” Routh added, “The horse has been trained for this race and he's in very good form. We want to run but, if it gets very testing, it's not going to suit him as a big slog is not how he runs his races.” Routh continued, “They [O'Brien horses] will make it a true test. That is what they did last year. Although officially they called it good to soft ground that day, our jockey [Mickael Barzalona] walked the track and thought it was testing, but then they had a lot of rain close to the race. “I'm sure Francis will be speaking to Princess Zahra, who is due to travel to Epsom. It's not ideal and not the scenario we wanted.” |
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Graffard added: "If I miss the Coronation, the timing with the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the King George becomes complicated, so I’d prefer to run."
With him saying that I’m not certain any gun would be put to his head. After the French 2000 I’d read that he said he doesn’t like to declare non runners. They very nearly pulled Rayif because of the ground and he’d told Mikel if they run to give him a go and ease off if it wasn’t happening. That shows his mindset and at short odds you’re backing him more on ratings than how we know the race will be run. The form of Dubai doesn’t look good to me, Botti’s horse got too close to him for my liking. |
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I don't know. Something tells me despite a sequence of wins for Calandagan I was not impressed by his victories eg Meydan and Japan. I think he's better over 10f too. on the other hand one can draw a line under the farcical run of Jan Brueghel in the King George at Ascot. The run was an experiment that went drastically wrong.
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Delashay - you're possibly a bit harsh on the Meydan form as although it was far from his best, it still stands up form-wise
through the other rivals though admittedly the performance of the runner-up raises eyebrows. Did you see the race? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azkktl9gUW4 The horse I think you meant was the Crisford horse (West Wind Blows) who stole a big lead (not Botti's Giavellotto) before being reeled in by Calandagan who was 10 lengths adrift turning into the straight - it was ultimately a stylish win for Barzalona who gave him a harder race than was necessary (even though he won with plenty in hand) as he was driven to nail a seemingly fully exposed 107 rated 7yo gelding who it should be mentioned followed up that personal-best when making Kalpana pull out all the stops at Newbury - he was elevated to an official 118 so can we argue with that after he's franked the form in reproducing the Meydan performance with a fair place in a G3 at Longchamp and against Kalpana? As unlikely as it sounds he might well be improving and it'd be wise not to be too dismissive in judging him over several years of relatively mediocre form...though there are snippets of half-decent form going back. How likely is it that a 7yo gelding finds improvement on the flat over 10/12f? Maybe in sprints but it's not something we hear about too often on the flat - in fact...I can't think of one! He's looking a different performer since his busman's holiday in Australia so maybe there's something in that. As for the rest of the field...Giavellotto's a fair 120 rated performer beaten >4 lengths so it's not as bad as it first seems. Ethical Diamond was also a couple more lengths further back. In summary...an easy lead for an unlikely improving bum who's been relatively ignored, allied with a misjudged ride by the winning jockey, however oxymoronic that sounds. I'd wager connections were very pleased to pick up another G1 & a huge pot on his seasonal debut when obviously not at a peak. |
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Delashay - you're possibly a bit harsh on the Meydan form as although it was far from his best, it still stands up form-wise
through the other rivals though admittedly the performance of the runner-up raises eyebrows. Did you see the race? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azkktl9gUW4 The horse I think you meant was the Crisford horse (West Wind Blows) who stole a big lead (not Botti's Giavellotto) before being reeled in by Calandagan who was 10 lengths adrift turning into the straight - it was ultimately a stylish win for Barzalona who gave him a harder race than was necessary (even though he won with plenty in hand) as he was driven to nail a seemingly fully exposed 107 rated 7yo gelding who it should be mentioned followed up that personal-best when making Kalpana pull out all the stops at Newbury - he was elevated to an official 118 so can we argue with that after he's franked the form in reproducing the Meydan performance with a fair place in a G3 at Longchamp and against Kalpana? As unlikely as it sounds he might well be improving and it'd be wise not to be too dismissive in judging him over several years of relatively mediocre form...though there are snippets of half-decent form going back. How likely is it that a 7yo gelding finds improvement on the flat over 10/12f? Maybe in sprints but it's not something we hear about too often on the flat - in fact...I can't think of one! He's looking a different performer since his busman's holiday in Australia so maybe there's something in that. As for the rest of the field...Giavellotto's a fair 120 rated performer beaten >4 lengths so it's not as bad as it first seems. Ethical Diamond was also a couple more lengths further back. In summary...an easy lead for an unlikely improving búm who's been relatively ignored, allied with a misjudged ride by the winning jockey, however oxymoronic that sounds. I'd wager connections were very pleased to pick up another G1 & a huge pot on his seasonal debut when obviously not at a peak. PS - JUST WHY THE FCÚK ARE THESE IDIOTS MODERATING EVERY POST? I anticipated it this time and copied my post  |
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Herbie the mods are doing so to many posters, sometimes it’s not clear to them why it’s happened as in this case all that you’ve written about is the race and nothing political.
Certain words are picked up and it appears the offensive AI is off with its setting. Good idea to save what you’ve written if it’s a lot before posting. Yes I saw the race and as I said wasn’t impressed with the run of Calandagan, he’d been given a 1lb the year before when beating Giavellotto much further than he did this year. That’s my point Botti’s horse got too close to him. Beating West Wind Blows as he did wasn’t such a feat either. He’d been well beaten by a horse at Longchamp this year on soft, but they’d had rain at Meydan so that can’t be an excuse. Look at the form of Sosie in Hong Kong, it all links to Calandagan. Through Botti’s horse over 10f and Masquerade Ball over 10f who Calandagan beat in the Japan Cup. There’s a chance that he’ll go odds on, if you’ve grabbed odds against you’ll feel chuffed (backers) but it’s not for me. Jan and Lambourn have this race as their target, Calandagan is starting up with the KG as his his goal. They know that he likes Ascot and the quick ground. They’ve said that Epsom is a track that he takes time to get balanced on before using his long burst of acceleration, add to the condition of the track it’s not all green lights for taking a short price for me. |
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Do you think it's likely that West Wind Blows is improving?
I do believe Calandagan's easily the best horse in the race but as I mentioned, Jan Brueghel does look very resolute and for a change I don't feel my habitual aversion to a Coolmore horse as he's a likeable performer. I really wouldn't wanna lay Calandagan as I reckon he does it by a comfortable 2 lengths...but just in case Coolmore tactics go awry and we get another front-runner ignored a la West Wind Blows or a Qirat, I'm gonna throw a stray fiver on a supposed rag in Illinois...who's a tad better than an average pacemaker...and I'm in the queue for 110 on here. I can't help but shake my head at the fools who've laid him at 7.4 for well over £500 PS - as for that moderating bóllóx...it was obviously for using the word 'búm' - how offensive eh? Ridiculous! |
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Hi Herbie I don’t think that West Wind is improving, he’s been well beaten in many G1’s and the Sheema Classic was only that in name.
He stays well and it was a superb ride, the opposition wasn’t up to par this year because of the trouble out there and he was race fit, as we saw at Newbury he’s best on these flat galloping tracks. https://www.racingtv.com/watch/replays/2026-05-03/longchamp/1333 Have a look at how he was beaten here, the Worlds best horse should have been doing the same for me. Had there of been a real Group 1 horse in the Sheema he’d of been beaten. I’d rather chance one of the others than Illinois , I see that Segall has gone for Bay City Roller. It’s no surprise the form of his win in Germany alone through Prescott horse Tiffany looks very good. She was beaten 5L by Kaplana at Ascot at her track and time of year (Kaplana) Bay City beat her easily 7L on his only run over 1m 4F on soft. The trainer hs waited for today. I’m not sure why he ran in the tattersalls so close to this but that was a great run, hope that it never left its mark. Good luck today and enjoy it. |
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Here’s quotes from Graffard that you won’t read likley on the RP.
But that doesn’t seem to worry his trainer much. “When I have a plan in mind and the horse is in good shape, he runs. I’m not going to hold him back because of the track, the competition, or anything else,” explains Francis-Henri Graffard. “He’s a 5-year-old gelding who loves to race. It’s his job, and he does it well. Obviously, I would have preferred good ground, but if it’s a little soft, it’s not a disaster. If he gets beaten, he gets beaten—it wouldn’t be the first time. If I didn’t want him to get beaten, then I wouldn’t take him out of his stall; I wouldn’t race him. But that’s not my role. It’s a sport, and may the best horse win—it’s that simple!” The Cantilian trainer says he feels much more at ease this time around, no doubt helped by the fact that Calandagan has already made a victorious return in the Dubai Sheema Classic in Dubai and forms an exceptional partnership with his jockey, Mickaël Barzalona. “I think the horse is better than last year,” he continues. “For sure, we’re not approaching this race the same way we did last year. He was much lighter last year, and Mickaël didn’t know him well enough yet. Plus, he was beaten in Dubai, whereas this time we won there. We have a horse at the peak of his powers, and of course, I’m always under a little more pressure since he’s now the horse to beat. I have confidence in the horse and in Mickaël. The best horse will win.” For those who have doubted what I’ve shared before about Graffard this shows that he’s willing to run a horse as a prep for a future purpose in a G1. Yes he could win, he the worlds top rated but those words wouldn’t make me want to take the odds. On the flip side I have read that he’s said that the horse is bouncing and needs/wants to race. He said the same about Daryz before his first up run. It clear though that they hoped for better ground for he return start and campaign in Europe. AoB : . “It’s very exciting, isn’t it?” he proclaimed recently. “We’re just eager to face him again. We’ll also be running Lambourn and Illinois. It’s going to be a real race. I was delighted with Jan Brueghel’s return at Chester, just as I was with Lambourn’s.” Ryan Moore had to work hard to secure the win with Jan Brueghel in the Ormonde Stakes, where his mount had to be urged on practically the entire 2,700 meters. But the 5-year-old won convincingly, and his trainer concluded: “It’s extraordinary that a horse can do that and still win. Lambourn is capable of leading at a steady pace, and it will take courage to let him go. And we know that Calandagan has to make his move from the back. All eyes are on Jan I’d mentioned earlier if they might try to slip them all with Lambourn ;) he might be a better play than Illinois. *italics represent my own words and views not C&P! |
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I meant to say this also Herbie, sometimes when your original fancy doesn’t show it’s best not looking for a bet in a race, that’s something that I’ve learnt from experience and to keep in mind.
Have a good one! |