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https://www.saturday-racing.com/sr-rating/
Any thoughts on this article?
Any thoughts on this article?
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New rating = an average of OR and RPR, then adjusted.
It sounds like half a good idea (after all, combining different factors is what most of us do already in an unscientific and inconsistent way) but the details are less convincing. Has RPR already been adjusted for the day's race conditions? Are market fluctuations included or do you just take a snapshot of early prices? Judging form on the basis of finishing position sounds sadly like every new betting shop punter's first system. |
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Thanks Ramruma — that's genuinely useful feedback and you're right on all three counts. The current RPR doesn't yet adjust for today's going, trip or class — it reads as a flat historical number, which inflates a horse whose peak was on the wrong ground. The market component is also just a snapshot of the spot price, so steamers and drifters score identically — even though we already track that movement on the Steamers board, the rating doesn't read it yet. And the form scoring is the weakest link: counting finishing digits ignores beaten lengths, class of race, and trip suitability — exactly the things a punter would weight first. The RPR + OR blend itself is doing useful work — most ratings systems use one or the other and the average dampens the noise of either — but the layers around it need to catch up.
I will wire a market-movement signal in next (the data is already there from the Steamers pipeline), then rebuild form scoring properly against the per-run history. Conditioned RPR will follow once those two land. Also will validate the system over time. Appreciate the push — Thanks. |